Thursday (14/08/2014) Early BIRD Fundamental Perspective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Securities)
Faktor flatnya Penjualan Retail AS blln Juli, (Juni masih tumbuh 0.2%), padahal 1/3 pertumbuhan Consumer Spending digenerate dari Retail Sales sekaligus memberikan indikasi akan adanya penurunan GDP AS di Q3/2014 & ini juga memberikan indikasi kemungkinan the Fed memperpanjang Fed Rate dilevel saat ini dmn hal ini ditanggapi positif tercermin atas naiknya DJIA +91.26 poin (+0.55%) ditengah sepinya perdagangan Selasa tercermin dlm vol perdagangan berjumlah 4.7 miliar saham (jauh dibawah rata-rata perdagangan dari awal Agustus - 13 Agustus yg berjumlah 5.7 miliar saham).
Didorong penguatan saham tambang & konstruksi, IHSG menguat dihari ke-3 shg selama 3 hari IHSG naik +114.51 poin (+2.25%) & merujuk kenaikan DJIA +0.55% & EIDO +0.39%, maka ada peluang IHSG menguat terbatas dihari Kamis.
ITMG, sbg salah satu saham coal yg kemarin menguat lebih dari +2% terkait released LK Q2/2014 dihari Rabu sore setelah market tutup, membukukan kenaikan laba bersih +40.41% mjd US$148.02 juta dimana kenaikan laba bersih tsb byk disumbang dari kenaikan keuntungan transaksi derivatif sebesar +819.79% mjd US$44.94 juta. Selama sem 1/2014 volume penjualan yg berhasil dibukukan ITMG sebanyak 13.9 juta MT dgn ASP US$69.7 tetapi terjadi penurunan -18% Avg Strip Ratio mjd US$10 (sebelumnya US$12.2) shg berpengaruh atas penurunan -10% Avg Cash Cost mjd US$43.2 & penurunan -9% Avg Total Cost mjd US$58. Membaiknya kinerja ITMG di Sem 1/2014 membuat ES mempertimbangkan meng-upgrade Target Price ITMG 2014E saat ini sebesar IDR 31,300.
DJIA +91.26 +0.55% 16651.8
NASDAQ +44.87 +1.02% 4434.13
OIL -0.04 -0.04% 97.33
GOLD +3.1 +0.24% 1313.7
TIN -75 -0.33% 22400
NICKEL -190 -1.01% 18560
CPO -12 -0.5% 2,176
EIDO +0.1 +0.34% $29.16
TLK 47.3 (2765)
IDR 11693
Thursday IDX Range: 5123 - 5195
BUY: INCO, JSMR, ITMG, TBIG, PTPP, PGAS, SMGR, WIKA, INTP, GGRM, UNVR, INDF, ASII, TLKM (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Thursday (14/08/2014) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Sec)
IDX Composite 5,123 - 5,195 Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation.
Thursday Stocks Pick:
INCO 4045-4200 (TP 2014F:4500) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas INCO mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 4085
JSMR 6200-6500 (TP 2014F:6675) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas JSMR mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 6325
TBIG 8325-8600 (TP 2014F:9300) Pola White Marubozu terbentuk atas TBIG mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 8400
PTPP 2375-2520 (TP 2014F:2610) Pola White Candle terbentuk atas PTPP mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 2425
PGAS 5850-6075 (TP 2014F:6300) Pola Four White Soldiers terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 5925
SMGR 16600-17000 (TP 2014F:18000) Pola Four Price Doji terbentuk atas SMGR mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 16700
WIKA 2740-2865 (TP 2014F:3050) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas WIKA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 2780
INTP 24475-24800 (TP 2014F:25800) Pola Four Price Doji terbentuk atas INTP mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 24575
GGRM 54400-55800 (TP 2014F:59950) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas GGRM mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 55025
UNVR 31500-32500 (TP 2014F:33500). Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas UNVR mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 31975
INDF 7050-7200 (TP 2014F:8000) Pola Dragonfly Doji terbentuk atas INDF mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 7100
ASII 7625-7825 (TP 2014F:8100) Pola White Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas ASII mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 7700
TLKM 2750-2845 (TP 2014F:2850) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas TLKM mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 2780 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Global Market Snapshot 14 Aug:
===================
• U.S. stocks ended higher with the Dow Jones returning to positive territory this year, as surging biotech shares helped investors shrug off disappointing retail sales data.
• U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stalled in July, pointing to some loss of momentum in the economy early in the third quarter.
• The Fed is expected to move in baby steps (very slowly) when it starts to bump up borrowing costs from a record low, but it won't do so until the 2nd quarter of 2015, latest Reuters poll show.
• The amount of money flowing into China's economy slowed to the lowest level in 6-years in July, adding to fears that a sustained recovery may be at risk in the 2H14 despite gov't efforts to shore up growth.
• China's property market showed further signs of weakening in July, with real estate investment slowing and sales falling sharply despite efforts by many local governments to shore up the troubled sector.
• Moody’s says that Indonesia still best bet in emerging world. Indonesia and India have a more robust growth outlook for next year, rising to around 5.5 to 6%, with domestic consumption likely to remain the key growth driver.
• Indonesia's annual motorbike sales fell 23.9% in July after 5-months of gains, compared with a 13.8% rise in June, partly due to fewer business days.
• Indonesian Heavy Equipment Manufacturer Association data shows 2,550 units were sold in the 1st half of this year, dropped almost 20% compared to 3,175 units last year.
• Finance Ministry has canceled a plan to issue US dollar-denominated bonds for local investors (domestic dollar bonds) in 2nd half of this year, citing concerns over limited onshore dollar supply.
Global Market Snapshot 14 Aug:
===================
• U.S. stocks ended higher with the Dow Jones returning to positive territory this year, as surging biotech shares helped investors shrug off disappointing retail sales data.
• U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stalled in July, pointing to some loss of momentum in the economy early in the third quarter.
• The Fed is expected to move in baby steps (very slowly) when it starts to bump up borrowing costs from a record low, but it won't do so until the 2nd quarter of 2015, latest Reuters poll show.
• The amount of money flowing into China's economy slowed to the lowest level in 6-years in July, adding to fears that a sustained recovery may be at risk in the 2H14 despite gov't efforts to shore up growth.
• China's property market showed further signs of weakening in July, with real estate investment slowing and sales falling sharply despite efforts by many local governments to shore up the troubled sector.
• Moody’s says that Indonesia still best bet in emerging world. Indonesia and India have a more robust growth outlook for next year, rising to around 5.5 to 6%, with domestic consumption likely to remain the key growth driver.
• Indonesia's annual motorbike sales fell 23.9% in July after 5-months of gains, compared with a 13.8% rise in June, partly due to fewer business days.
• Indonesian Heavy Equipment Manufacturer Association data shows 2,550 units were sold in the 1st half of this year, dropped almost 20% compared to 3,175 units last year.
• Finance Ministry has canceled a plan to issue US dollar-denominated bonds for local investors (domestic dollar bonds) in 2nd half of this year, citing concerns over limited onshore dollar supply.
Geneva, August 13, 2014
MSCI GLOBAL SMALL CAP INDEXES
The following are changes in constituents for the MSCI Global Small Cap Indexeswhich will take place as of the close of August 29, 2014.
SUMMARY PER COUNTRY and PER REGION:
MSCI INDONESIA INDEX
Additions
None
Deletions
SELAMAT SEMPURNA
Good morning,
U.S. stocks closed higher for the third time in four days as a rally in tech, airlines and biotech firms helped lead gains.
Dow.........16652 +91.3 +0.55%
Nasdaq......4432 +44.9 +1.02%
S&P 500.....1947 +13 +0.67%
FTSE..........6657 +24.3 +0.37%
DAX...........9199 +129.4 +1.43%
CAC...........4195 +32.6 +0.78%
Nikkei......15214 +52.3 +0.35%
HSI..........24890 +200.9 +0.81%
Shanghai...2223 +1.3 +0.06%
ST Times...3301 -1.98 -0.06%
Indo10Yr. 8.3441 -0.013 -0.16%
US10Yr....2.41% -0.03 -1.19%
VIX...........12.90 -1.23 -8.70%
USD Index...81.61+0.11+0.13%
Como Indx.291.29 -0.49 -0.17%
DJUSCL.....130.06 +1.50+1.77%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)
IndoCDS...153 -2.17 -1.40%
(5-yr INOCD5)
IDR.. 11693 -5 -0.04%. (blmbrg)
Jisdor...... 11683 +6 +0.05%
Euro........1.3363 -0.0006 -0.004%
TLKM..47.30 -0.23 -0.48%Rp2763
ARMS Plc....66.75 +1.00 +1.52%
EIDO......... 29.16 +0.10 +0.34%
EEM.......... 44.56 +0.24 +0.54%
Oil.............97.59 +0.40 +0.41%
Gold ......1312.54 +0.95+0.07%
Timah......22360 -65 -0.29%
Nickel......18620 -135 -0.71%
Coal..........68.85 +1.80 +2.68%
CPO.......2177RM -13 -0.59%
Corn.........369.75 +0.75 +0.20%
SoybeanOil.34.32 -0.66 -1.89%
Wheat......528.00 -10.00 -1.86%
(DE/ls- 14-08-14)
-----------------------------------------
Indeks Dow Jones ditutup di level 16,651.80 menguat 91.26 point (0.55%) #kopipagi
2) IHSG 13 Agustus 2014 ditutup di level 5,168.27 menguat 35.87 point (0.70%), breakout, range baru 5150-5240 #kopipagi
3) BEST 600-640, CPIN 4030-4130, JPFA 1280-1320, MAIN 3150-3250, GGRM 54500-56000, INCO 4050-4200 #kopipagi
4) INTP 24000-25000, JSMR 6300-6450, LPCK jika breakout 8650 target pendek ke 9000 #kopipagi
5) LPPF 15500-16500, MLPL 780-850,MPPA 2900-3050,MEDC 3450-3600, PTPP 2400-2600, SSIA 800-860 #kopipagi
6) SSMS breakout dari 1350 uptrend, UNVR 31500-33000, VIVA speculative 275-300 #kopipagi
7) #TrainingTradingProfits 20-21 Sep 2014 sudah hampir penuh. Info sms nama#email ke 0896-508-55770 atau 0823-2722-9009
8) #kopipagi membantu Anda melakukan analisis, namun analisis terbaik adalah dari diri Anda sendiri. Salprof ! 14 Agustus 2014
Disclaimer ON
[BPS Update] 14 Agustus 2014
Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan akan mencoba untuk bertahan dan break ke atas resistance untuk menegaskan reversal dari fase konsolidasi menuju bullish. Kegagalan untuk break ke atas resistance akan menjadi sinyal bahwa fase konsolidasi belum berakhir. Support: 5,136 – 5,113, resistance: 5,165 – 5,200.
- MACD membentuk golden cross.
- Candle white marubozu menguji resistance.
- Break keatas upper Bollinger band yang mulai membuka.
- Stochastic break bearish trend line dan memasuki overbought.
Trading Ideas:
- BEST: Trading buy. Stop loss: Rp. 605, resistance: Rp. 635 – Rp. 645.
- CPIN: Trading buy. Stop loss: Rp. 4,045, resistance: Rp. 4,170 – Rp. 4,225.
- GGRM: Trading buy. Stop loss: Rp. 54,375, resistance: Rp. 56,600 – Rp. 57,475.
- MLPL: Trading buy. Stop loss: Rp. 805, resistance: Rp. 840 – Rp. 855.
- PTPP: Trading buy. Stop loss: Rp. 2,415, resistance: Rp. 2,485 – Rp. 2,500.
- SSIA: Trading buy. Stop loss: Rp. 810, resistance: Rp. 855 – Rp. 860.
(Disclaimer On)
TODAY 14 AGUSTUS 2014
• BI
-RDG BI (Interest Rate Decision)
-BI : Perkembangan Properti Komersial (PPKOM) Triwulan II/2014
RUPS/PUBEX : BSWD, KBLI
CUM DEV PUDP 12
RELEASE LAP KEU MAPI, LSIP
• ACTION EMITEN :
-PGAS jual gas pada 14 perusahaan Lampung mulai Agustus 2014
• POLITIC :
7-14 August 2014 Court Hearing sessions 3 working days after submission of complaint recorded in the Constitutional Case Register (BRPK)
• EVENT/CONFERENCE :
11-Aug 14-Aug NYC Global Industrials Conference Jefferies LLC institutional salesperson
• AGENDA ECONOMIC :
US : Jobless Claims, Import and Export Prices, EIA Natural Gas Report, 3-Month Bill Announcement, 6-Month Bill Announcement, 52-Week Bill Announcement, 5-Yr TIPS Announcement, 30-yr Bond Auction, Fed Balance Sheet, Money Supply, Continuing Jobless Claims
FRANCE : GDP Growth Rate QoQ/YoY Prel
FINLAND : Inflation Rate YoY/MoM
GERMANY : GDP Growth Rate QoQ /YoY Flash
INDIA : WPI Inflation YoY
AUSTRIA : GDP Growth Rate QoQ /YoY Flash, Inflation Rate YoY/MoM JUL
TURKEY : Current Account
SWITZERLAND : PPI MoM/YoY
NETHERLANDS : Balance of Trade, GDP Growth Rate QoQ/YoY
POLAND : GDP Growth Rate QoQ/YoYQ2
EU : Core Inflation Rate YoY - Final, GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash/YoY Flash, Inflation Rate YoY/MoM
SOUTH AFRICA : Mining Production YoY, Mining Production MoM
PORTUGAL : GDP Growth Rate QoQ /YoY Prel
BRAZIL : Retail Sales MoM/YoY
CANADA : New Housing Price Index YoY/MoM
BELGIUM : Balance of Trade
CHINA : FDI (YTD) YoY
CHILE : Interest Rate Decision
TAIWAN : GDP Growth Rate YoY Final
------------------------------------------
ADRO : Soal PLTU Batang, Adaro tunggu sikap pemerintah
JAKARTA. Pembangunan Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Uap (PLTU) di Batang, Jawa Tengah masih terkendala soal pembebasan lahan. Akibatnya, pembangunan PLTU yang sudah direncanakan sejak tahun 2012 lalu beberapa kali tertunda.
"Kalau dari kami, sih, sudah siap, tinggal menunggu ketegasan dari pemerintah saja," jelas Sandiaga S. Uno, Presiden Direktur PT Saratoga Investama Sedaya Tbk (SRTG) yang juga mengisi salah satu posisi direksi di PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO).
Masalah pembebasan lahan menjadi hambatan utama konsorsium dalam menggarap proyek senilai US$ 4 miliar tersebut. Konsorsium yang terdiri dari ADRO, J-Power dan Itcochu Corp itu awalnya ingin mulai membangun PLTU Batang pada Oktober 2012.
Namun, target itu mesti ditunda hingga Oktober 2013 lantaran konsorsium kesulitan menyelesaikan Analisis Mengenai Dampak Lingkungan (AMDAL) PLTU Batang. Setahun berselang, konsorsium kembali menunda pembangunan hingga Oktober 2014 lantaran pembebasan lahan belum bisa dilakukan seluruhnya.
TLKM : Telkom Siapkan Investasi USD200 Juta di CVC
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM) berencana berinvestasi melalui corporate venture capital (CVC) senilai USD200 juta dengan menggandeng beberapa perusahaan modal ventura (venture capital). Salah satunya dengan Fenox Ventura Capital yang berbasis di Silicon Valley, Amerika Serikat.
Kegiatan bisnis seperti itu adalah yang pertama dilakukan perusahaan Indonesia, bahkan di ASEAN. "Sebagai CVC, Telkom yang pertama, di negara ASEAN yang pertama" ujar Dirut Telkom Arif Yahya dalam konferensi pers di Bandung, Jawa Barat, Rabu (13/8/2014).
Kerjasama itu, menurutnya, berkesinambungan. Fenox Venture Capital berkomitmen untuk membantu program inkubator bisnis Telkom dengan membawa mentor-mentor terbaik dari Silicon Valley.
"Program di bawah CVC ini akan memperkuat posisi inkubator bisnis yang sudah berjalan selama ini melalui indigo yang berlokasi di Bandung Digital Valley dan Jogja Digital Valley," jelasnya.(Okezone)
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