Thursday (19/06/2014) Early BIRD Fundamental Perspective
(Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Securities)
Pernyataan The Fed Chairwoman yang secara implisit mengatakan The Fed akan sedikit mempercepat kenaikan Fed Rate dari rencana awal tetapi kenaikan Fed Rate tidak sebesar seperti yang pernah dikatakan semula menjadi pemicu DJIA naik kenaikan +98.13 poin (+0.58%) diikuti kejatuhan The Vix sebesar -12.02% dilevel 10.06 (level terendah the Vix sejak Februari 2007) ditengah kembali dipangkasnya nilai Paket Stimulus sebesar USD10 miliar menjadi USD35 miliar serta diturunkan proyeksi GDP AS tahun 2014 menjadi 2.1%-2.3% darai sebelumnya 2.9% tetapi tetap mempertahankan target GDP 2015 & 2016 dilevel semula ditengah ramainya perdagangan tercermin dlm volume perdagangan yg berjumlah 5.94 miliar saham (diatas rata-rata volume perdagangan selama bln Mei 5.76 miliar saham). Kombinasi faktor menguatnya EIDO +0.48% & naiknya DJIA +0.58% ditengah pernyataan The Fed yang akan menaikkan Fed rate tidak sebesar perkiraan awal menjadi sentimen positif bagi IHSG Kamis ini sehingga ada peluang terjadinya REBOUND sambil menunggu intervensi Bank Indonesia agar IDR tidak berlanjut melemah kelevel 12,300.
DJIA +98.13 +0.58% 16906.62
S&P +14.99 +0.77% 1956.98
NASDAQ +25.60 +0.59%4362.84
VIX -1.45 -12.02% 10.61
OIL -0.39 -0.37% 105.97
GOLD +0.70 +0.05% 1272.70
TIN +50 +0.22% 22,600
NICKEL -380 -1.99% 18,740
CPO +33 +1.36% 2,466
EIDO +0.13 +0.48% $27.00
TLK 40.87 (2,452)
IDR 12,000
Thursday IDX Range: 4,874 - 4,945
BUY: PGAS, LSIP, TLKM, INDF, BBNI, UNTR, BMRI, BBRI, TBIG, AALI
BOW: UNVR, INCO, BBCA, ASII (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)"Have an Impressive Thursday & GBU All"
- Update BNIS Technical Analysis 06.19.14
Pola Bearish 3 Inside Down, Oversold & > 4.865 Dapat Dorong Konsolidasi Lebih Lanjut.
IHSG masih menunjukkan pola konsolidasi berlanjut, didukung Momentum IHSG jangka pendek netral, trend Bullish, stochastic Oversold, candle Bearish 3 Inside Down, meski <4.902 (5-day MA), trend volume meningkat. Peluang technical rebound masih terbuka selama di atas 4.865/4.878, dapat mendorong IHSG menuju target 4.925/4.998/5.090. Resist: 4.909/4.929/4.951/4.972. Support: 4.878/4.865/4.842/4.811. Perkiraan range: 4.865 – 4.929.
• BBRI: Resist: 10.175/10.275/10.400/10.625. Support: 10.025/9.875/9.700/9.500
Rekomendasi: Buy jika breakout diatas 10.175 & 10.275 target 10.400 stop loss di bawah 10.000.
• TLKM: Resist: 2.455/2.470/2.520/2.580. Support: 2.400/2.360/2.345/2.315.
Rekomendasi: Buy 2.400-2.420 target 2.470 stop loss di bawah 2.345.
• UNVR: Resist: 29.675/29.950/30.550/30.800. Support: 29.325/29.025/28.425/28.100.
Rekomendasi: Buy 29.150-29.300 target 29.950/30.200 stop loss di bawah 28.425.
• ENRG: Resist: 101/103/107/111. Support: 99/96/94/91.
Rekomendasi: Buy 97-99 target 101/103 stop loss di bawah 94
• PTBA: Resist: 10.725/10.900/11.500/11.900. Support: 10.425/10.200/10.050/9.675.
Rekomendasi: Buy 10.300-10.400 target 10.900/11.050 stop loss di bawah 10.200.
• ANTM: Resist: 1.170/1.210/1.250/1.290. Support: 1.145/1.120/1.080/1.030.
Rekomendasi: Buy jika breakout 1.170 target 1.210/1.230 stop loss di bawah 1.130.
(Technical Analyst: Andri Zakarias)
• FR DATA FITCH :
Perusahaan yang paling terekspos terhadap depresiasi rupiah antara lain;
1.PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk (LPKR),
2.PT Alam Sutera Tbk (ASRI),
REASON :
ASRI+LPKR Memiliki beban utang berdenominasi dalam dolar AS (USD). TAPI Keduanya telah lindung nilai (hedging) atas 80% utang
3.PT Multipolar Tbk (MLPL)
REASON :
memiliki utang dalam mata uang asing sekitar US$ 200 juta,
perusahaan tidak memiliki lindung nilai terhadap eksposur USD. TAPI perusahaan memiliki simpanan hasil penerbitan obligasi sebesar US$ 200 juta dalam mata uang asing.
4.PT Kawasan Industri Jababeka Tbk (KIJA),
REASON :
memiliki utang dalam mata uang asing dengan porsi 84%. Emiten ini akan diuntungkan dari lindung nilai dari operasi pembangkit listriknya yang baru. Pembangkit itu memiliki perjanjian off-take jangka panjang dalam bentuk mata USD dengan Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN).
5.PT GarudaIndonesia
REASON ada 20% dari kebutuhan mata uang asing Garuda tidak memiliki lindung nilai. Meskipun demikian, pasar GIIA di pasar full-service carrier (FSC) domestik, memungkinkan GIIA menaikkan tarif guna menyesuaikan biaya dan fluktuasi nilai tukar,
6.JPFA
7.FASW
8.BRNA
YANG DIUNTUNGKAN
1.CPO
2.MIGAS
3.MINING
4.COAL----ADRO
Marketwatch 19 Juni 2014 :
- IHSG kemarin kembali dalam tekanan jual, disebabkan Rupiah melemah terhadap USD mendekati level psikologis 12.000, dan kekhawatiran tembus diatas 12.000.
- Sisi positifnya asing tidak melakukan net sell yang agresif, walaupun juga tidak melakukan net buy yang agresif, hanya memang asing ada membeli saham KPIG di pasar Nego sebesar 2.35 trilyuns.
- Semua sektor kembali berada di zona merah dengan penurunan paling dalam adalah Industri dasar dan property, namun sektor agri kembali berhasil survive berada di zona hijau.
- Saham-saham mining seperti INCO, ADRO dan PTBA sempat berada di zona hijau diawal pembukaan, namun setelah market berjalan tak lama kemudian saham ini kembali tertekan, kecuali saham ITMG.
- Dalam posisi USD akan menembus 12.000, emiten-emiten yang mempunyai hutang USD akan kembali tertekan, oleh karena itu hindari saham-saham yang mempunyai hutang USD yang besar dan pilih emiten yang berpenghasilan USD.
- Emiten yang berpendapat USD kebanyakan pada sektor agri dan mining
- Dow kembali mendekati level psikologis 17.000, level tertinggi sepanjang sejarah bila ditembus, dan EIDO naik +0.48%.
RISET CIMB 19 JUNI 2014
1.Astra International | PDF
Slowing in May
ASII IJ / ASII.JK | HOLD - Maintained | Rp7,225.00 /TP Rp7,700.00
Mkt.Cap:US$24,594.00m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$25.89m | Free Float:49.00%
Autos | Author(s): Erindra KRISNAWAN, CFA +62 2130061732, Laura TASLIM
Official auto sales data for May reveal that 4W sales have been slower than expected for ASII. While the latest market share stats are still in line with our expectation, earnings risks remain given rising price discounts. Nonetheless, we think potential earnings downside has been reflected in the recent share price drop. Hence, we maintain our estimates, target price of Rp7,700 (2.85x FY14 P/BV) and Hold rating.
2.Metropolitan Land | PDF
Seeing is believing
MTLA IJ / MTLA.JK | ADD - Maintained | Rp425.00 /TP Rp550.00
Mkt.Cap:US$270.80m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$0.03m | Free Float:25.00%
Property Devt & Invt | Author(s): Jovent GIOVANNY +62 (21) 3006 1727,
We visited MTLA’s Cileungsi and Transyogi projects which cater mostly to first-time buyers, and came away feeling more confident about the underlying demand as the buyers seem oblivious to election uncertainties. Demand aside, affordability and financing factors are also supportive. We think that MTLA's sales, on track to reach its target based on May's data, may surprise on the upside. In our view, its target market probably offers the most stable growth prospects. We keep our Add call with unchanged EPS forecasts and DCF-based target price of Rp550 (LTG of 5%, WACC of 13.7%). The successful launch of its mixed-useWest Jakarta project is a key
potential catalyst for 2H.
June 18 (Bloomberg)
The Federal Reserve said growth is bouncing back and the job market is improving as it continued to reduce the monthly pace of asset purchases.
“Economic activity is rebounding in the current quarter and will continue to expand at a moderate pace thereafter,” Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said at a press conference inWashington
Even with declines in unemployment, “a broader assessment of indicators suggests that underutilization in the labor market remains significant.”
The FOMC trimmed bond-buying by $10 billion for a fifth straight meeting, to $35 billion, keeping it on pace to end the program late this year. Yellen and her fellow policy makers are debating how long to keep interest rates near zero as the U.S. labor market improves and inflation moves closer to the Fed’s 2 percent goal. Updating their economic forecasts, Fed officials predicted their target interest rate will be 1.13 percent at the end of 2015 and 2.5 percent a year later, higher than previously forecast.
CS Indo Energy Report: Buy - Initiate MEDCO, Upgrade PTBA, reit PGAS/ADRO!
INDONESIA
· Ami Tantri (Report Attached): Declining oil production, increasing net oil imports and heavy fuel subsidies are the concerns forIndonesia
· Energy for growth. Although Indonesia is a net exporter of energy (primarily gas and coal), the country faces declining oil production; thus, net oil imports have grown by an 18% CAGR over the past eight years and have been worsened by heavy fuel subsidies. We believe the balance of energy use will shift heavily in favour of gas and coal.
· Increasing use of other sources of energy.Indonesia
· Gas is cleaner. We initiate coverage with OUTPERFORM on Medco Energy (MEDC), one such company benefiting from growing gas output and increasing domestic prices. Key risks are declining oil and gas production and prices. We also rate Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) an OUTPERFORM, as it is well placed to develop more gas pipeline infrastructure, with 35% potential upside in its distribution network over the next three years. We upgrade Bukit Asam (PTBA) to OUTPERFORM. Raise TPs of Adaro, Bukit Asam, Harum Energy. Cut TP of PGAS.
Thursday (19/06/2014) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Sec)
IDX Composite 4,874 - 4,945
Pola Black Marubozu terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan munculnya tekanan jual.
Thursday Stocks Pick:
PGAS 5425-5575 (TP 2014F:5800) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 5475
LSIP 2240-2370 (TP 2014F:2755) Pola White Candle terbentuk atas LSIP mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 2290
TLKM 2395-2440 (TP 2014F:2700) Pola Short White Candle terbentuk atas TLKM mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 2410
INDF 6725-6925 (TP 2014F:8000) Pola Short White Candle terbentuk atas BMRI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 6800
BBNI 4850-4950 (TP 2014F:5000) Pola Four Price Doji terbentuk atas BBNI mengindikasikan Sideways. BUY 4885
UNTR 22300-23000 (TP 2014F:23600) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas UNTR mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 22500
BMRI 9800-9950 (TP 2014F:10500) Pola Short Black Candle terbentuk atas BMRI mengindikasikan munculnya tekanan jual. BUY 9850
BBRI 9975-10250 (TP 2014F:11500) Pola Black Candle terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BUY 10050
TBIG 7925-8100 (TP 2014F:9300) Pola Spinning Tops terbentuk atas TBIG mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 7950
AALI 26800-27450 (TP 2014F:32500) Pola Four White Soldiers terbentuk atas AALI mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 27125
UNVR 29150-30500 (TP 2014F:33500). Pola Black Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas UNVR mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 29350
INCO 3660-3775 (TP 2014F:4500) Pola Black Candle terbentuk atas INCO mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 3705
BBCA 10950-11100 (TP 2014F:12750) Pola Bearish Harami Cross terbentuk atas BBCA mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 11000
ASII 7100-7250 (TP 2014F:7950) Pola Four Price Doji terbentuk atas ASII mengindikasikan melambatnya tekanan jual. BOW 7150 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Good morning,
U.S. stocks climbed on Wednesday, lifting the S&P 500 to a record finish, after the Federal Reserve said the economy is rebounding and that interest rates would stay low for some time.
Dow.........16907 +98.1 +0.58%
Nasdaq......4363 +25.6 +0.59%
S&P 500.....1957 +14.99+0.77%
FTSE..........6779 +11.8 +0.17%
DAX...........9920 +10.0 +0.10%
CAC...........4531 -5.7 -0.13%
Nikkei......15116 +139.8 +0.93%
HSI..........23182 -21.9 -0.09%
Shanghai...2156 -11.2 -0.54%
Kospi.........1989 -12.1 -0.60%
ST Times...3277 +2.4 +0.07%
ASX 200....5383 -17.95 -0.33%
PSE...........6703 -1.8 -0.03%
Indo10Yr. 8.1962+0.0335+0.41%
US10Yr.....2.61% -0.04 -1.58%
VIX...........10.61 -1.45 -12.02%
USD Index...80.40 -0.21 -0.26%
Como Indx.309.40+0.37 +0.12%
DJUSCL......144.41+1.86 +1.30%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)
IndoCDS.....151.52+9.51 +6.67%
(5-yr INOCD5)
IDR...11996.5+104+0.87%(
Jisdor...... 11978 +115 +0.97%
Euro........1.3590 +0.0043+0.34%
TLKM..40.87 +0.41 +1.01%Rp2400
ARMS Plc...181.75 +4.00 +2.25%
EIDO......... 27.00 +0.13 +0.48%
EEM.......... 43.90 +0.48 +1.11%
Oil............105.97 -0.66 -0.62%
Gold ......1277.97 +6.65 +0.51%
Timah......22450 -25 -0.11% Nickel......18560 -605 -3.16%
Coal..........71.85 -0.40 -0.55%
CPO.......2473RM+34 +1.39%$765
Corn.........439.50 +0 +0.00%
SoybeanOil.40.14 +0.29 +0.73%
Wheat.......596.25 -5.50 -0.93%
(DE/ls- 19-06-14)
Global Market Snapshot 19 Jun:
===================
• U.S. stocks rose with the S&P 500 at a record high after The Fed hinted of lower interest-rate in the long run than it had indicated previously.
• FOMC results: 1) Expressed confidence the U.S. economic recovery was on track and hinted a slightly aggressive pace of rate increases next year. 2) Lowered their projections for the long-run target interest rate from 4% to 3.75% as theU.S.
• PM Li Keqiang said thatChina
• Rupiah weakened past 12,000 per dollar for the first time since February as importers hoarded dollars to meet future payments amid concern a surge in oil prices will worsen the trade balance.
• Plunging thermal coal prices will force some small and low-margin producers in Indonesia out of business 'in panic mode' before year-end, an industry group said.
• Indonesia FDI is expected to be 15% higher than a year earlier in the 2nd quarter, compared with a 9.8% increase in 1st quarter, the investment chief said
• Jokowi promised that he would continue to conduct blusukan if he is elected as president. He also would remove the designation of religion on the identity card to prevent discrimination.
• Donations to presidential candidate Jokowi-JK reached more than Rp50bn, less than a month after bank accounts were opened to the public.
• Japanese gov't officially announced a long-awaited policy that will allow Indonesian travelers making short 15-day trips toJapan
AGENDA EMITEN
19 Juni
- CumDate Deviden INTP Rp.900
- CumDate Deviden JKON Rp.4,2
- CumDate Deviden JRPT Rp.13,5
- RUPS : ACST, BNBR, FAST, KARW, SMRU
- PublicExpose : DNET, HADE, SMRA, STAR
-EXPIRE TREASURY STOCK TLKM TGL 19 JUNI 2014
-ANALYST ROADSHOW :
MAYBANK : 13-20 Jun Indonesia Banks Marketing - US
MACQUARIE EVENTS COMING UP:
ASEAN Property Tour 16-20th June;
CREDIT SUISSE : Indonesia Infrastructure Insights 2014: 18-19 June in Dharmawangsa Hotel, Jakarta.
Mitsubishi Corp Siapkan Investasi US$5 Miliar untuk Bangun Smelter
Perusahaan asal Jepang Mitsubishi Corp berencana memulai pembangunan smelter di Kepulauan Halmahera, Maluku Utara sebagai bagaian dari investasi di sektor pertambangan tahun ini.
Pernyataan The Fed Chairwoman yang secara implisit mengatakan The Fed akan sedikit mempercepat kenaikan Fed Rate dari rencana awal tetapi kenaikan Fed Rate tidak sebesar seperti yang pernah dikatakan semula menjadi pemicu DJIA naik kenaikan +98.13 poin (+0.58%) diikuti kejatuhan The Vix sebesar -12.02% dilevel 10.06 (level terendah the Vix sejak Februari 2007) ditengah kembali dipangkasnya nilai Paket Stimulus sebesar USD10 miliar menjadi USD35 miliar serta diturunkan proyeksi GDP AS tahun 2014 menjadi 2.1%-2.3% darai sebelumnya 2.9% tetapi tetap mempertahankan target GDP 2015 & 2016 dilevel semula ditengah ramainya perdagangan tercermin dlm volume perdagangan yg berjumlah 5.94 miliar saham (diatas rata-rata volume perdagangan selama bln Mei 5.76 miliar saham). Kombinasi faktor menguatnya EIDO +0.48% & naiknya DJIA +0.58% ditengah pernyataan The Fed yang akan menaikkan Fed rate tidak sebesar perkiraan awal menjadi sentimen positif bagi IHSG Kamis ini sehingga ada peluang terjadinya REBOUND sambil menunggu intervensi Bank Indonesia agar IDR tidak berlanjut melemah kelevel 12,300.
DJIA +98.13 +0.58% 16906.62
S&P +14.99 +0.77% 1956.98
NASDAQ +25.60 +0.59%4362.84
VIX -1.45 -12.02% 10.61
OIL -0.39 -0.37% 105.97
GOLD +0.70 +0.05% 1272.70
TIN +50 +0.22% 22,600
NICKEL -380 -1.99% 18,740
CPO +33 +1.36% 2,466
EIDO +0.13 +0.48% $27.00
TLK 40.87 (2,452)
IDR 12,000
Thursday IDX Range: 4,874 - 4,945
BUY: PGAS, LSIP, TLKM, INDF, BBNI, UNTR, BMRI, BBRI, TBIG, AALI
BOW: UNVR, INCO, BBCA, ASII (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)"Have an Impressive Thursday & GBU All"
- Update BNIS Technical Analysis 06.19.14
Pola Bearish 3 Inside Down, Oversold & > 4.865 Dapat Dorong Konsolidasi Lebih Lanjut.
IHSG masih menunjukkan pola konsolidasi berlanjut, didukung Momentum IHSG jangka pendek netral, trend Bullish, stochastic Oversold, candle Bearish 3 Inside Down, meski <4.902 (5-day MA), trend volume meningkat. Peluang technical rebound masih terbuka selama di atas 4.865/4.878, dapat mendorong IHSG menuju target 4.925/4.998/5.090. Resist: 4.909/4.929/4.951/4.972. Support: 4.878/4.865/4.842/4.811. Perkiraan range: 4.865 – 4.929.
• BBRI: Resist: 10.175/10.275/10.400/10.625. Support: 10.025/9.875/9.700/9.500
Rekomendasi: Buy jika breakout diatas 10.175 & 10.275 target 10.400 stop loss di bawah 10.000.
• TLKM: Resist: 2.455/2.470/2.520/2.580. Support: 2.400/2.360/2.345/2.315.
Rekomendasi: Buy 2.400-2.420 target 2.470 stop loss di bawah 2.345.
• UNVR: Resist: 29.675/29.950/30.550/30.800. Support: 29.325/29.025/28.425/28.100.
Rekomendasi: Buy 29.150-29.300 target 29.950/30.200 stop loss di bawah 28.425.
• ENRG: Resist: 101/103/107/111. Support: 99/96/94/91.
Rekomendasi: Buy 97-99 target 101/103 stop loss di bawah 94
• PTBA: Resist: 10.725/10.900/11.500/11.900. Support: 10.425/10.200/10.050/9.675.
Rekomendasi: Buy 10.300-10.400 target 10.900/11.050 stop loss di bawah 10.200.
• ANTM: Resist: 1.170/1.210/1.250/1.290. Support: 1.145/1.120/1.080/1.030.
Rekomendasi: Buy jika breakout 1.170 target 1.210/1.230 stop loss di bawah 1.130.
(Technical Analyst: Andri Zakarias)
• FR DATA FITCH :
Perusahaan yang paling terekspos terhadap depresiasi rupiah antara lain;
1.PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk (LPKR),
2.PT Alam Sutera Tbk (ASRI),
REASON :
ASRI+LPKR Memiliki beban utang berdenominasi dalam dolar AS (USD). TAPI Keduanya telah lindung nilai (hedging) atas 80% utang
3.PT Multipolar Tbk (MLPL)
REASON :
memiliki utang dalam mata uang asing sekitar US$ 200 juta,
perusahaan tidak memiliki lindung nilai terhadap eksposur USD. TAPI perusahaan memiliki simpanan hasil penerbitan obligasi sebesar US$ 200 juta dalam mata uang asing.
4.PT Kawasan Industri Jababeka Tbk (KIJA),
REASON :
memiliki utang dalam mata uang asing dengan porsi 84%. Emiten ini akan diuntungkan dari lindung nilai dari operasi pembangkit listriknya yang baru. Pembangkit itu memiliki perjanjian off-take jangka panjang dalam bentuk mata USD dengan Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN).
5.PT Garuda
REASON ada 20% dari kebutuhan mata uang asing Garuda tidak memiliki lindung nilai. Meskipun demikian, pasar GIIA di pasar full-service carrier (FSC) domestik, memungkinkan GIIA menaikkan tarif guna menyesuaikan biaya dan fluktuasi nilai tukar,
6.JPFA
7.FASW
8.BRNA
YANG DIUNTUNGKAN
1.CPO
2.MIGAS
3.MINING
4.COAL----ADRO
Marketwatch 19 Juni 2014 :
- IHSG kemarin kembali dalam tekanan jual, disebabkan Rupiah melemah terhadap USD mendekati level psikologis 12.000, dan kekhawatiran tembus diatas 12.000.
- Sisi positifnya asing tidak melakukan net sell yang agresif, walaupun juga tidak melakukan net buy yang agresif, hanya memang asing ada membeli saham KPIG di pasar Nego sebesar 2.35 trilyuns.
- Semua sektor kembali berada di zona merah dengan penurunan paling dalam adalah Industri dasar dan property, namun sektor agri kembali berhasil survive berada di zona hijau.
- Saham-saham mining seperti INCO, ADRO dan PTBA sempat berada di zona hijau diawal pembukaan, namun setelah market berjalan tak lama kemudian saham ini kembali tertekan, kecuali saham ITMG.
- Dalam posisi USD akan menembus 12.000, emiten-emiten yang mempunyai hutang USD akan kembali tertekan, oleh karena itu hindari saham-saham yang mempunyai hutang USD yang besar dan pilih emiten yang berpenghasilan USD.
- Emiten yang berpendapat USD kebanyakan pada sektor agri dan mining
- Dow kembali mendekati level psikologis 17.000, level tertinggi sepanjang sejarah bila ditembus, dan EIDO naik +0.48%.
RISET CIMB 19 JUNI 2014
1.Astra International | PDF
Slowing in May
ASII IJ / ASII.JK | HOLD - Maintained | Rp7,225.00 /TP Rp7,700.00
Mkt.Cap:US$24,594.00m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$25.89m | Free Float:49.00%
Autos | Author(s): Erindra KRISNAWAN, CFA +62 2130061732, Laura TASLIM
Official auto sales data for May reveal that 4W sales have been slower than expected for ASII. While the latest market share stats are still in line with our expectation, earnings risks remain given rising price discounts. Nonetheless, we think potential earnings downside has been reflected in the recent share price drop. Hence, we maintain our estimates, target price of Rp7,700 (2.85x FY14 P/BV) and Hold rating.
2.Metropolitan Land | PDF
Seeing is believing
MTLA IJ / MTLA.JK | ADD - Maintained | Rp425.00 /TP Rp550.00
Mkt.Cap:US$270.80m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$0.03m | Free Float:25.00%
Property Devt & Invt | Author(s): Jovent GIOVANNY +62 (21) 3006 1727,
We visited MTLA’s Cileungsi and Transyogi projects which cater mostly to first-time buyers, and came away feeling more confident about the underlying demand as the buyers seem oblivious to election uncertainties. Demand aside, affordability and financing factors are also supportive. We think that MTLA's sales, on track to reach its target based on May's data, may surprise on the upside. In our view, its target market probably offers the most stable growth prospects. We keep our Add call with unchanged EPS forecasts and DCF-based target price of Rp550 (LTG of 5%, WACC of 13.7%). The successful launch of its mixed-use
June 18 (Bloomberg)
The Federal Reserve said growth is bouncing back and the job market is improving as it continued to reduce the monthly pace of asset purchases.
“Economic activity is rebounding in the current quarter and will continue to expand at a moderate pace thereafter,” Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said at a press conference in
Even with declines in unemployment, “a broader assessment of indicators suggests that underutilization in the labor market remains significant.”
The FOMC trimmed bond-buying by $10 billion for a fifth straight meeting, to $35 billion, keeping it on pace to end the program late this year. Yellen and her fellow policy makers are debating how long to keep interest rates near zero as the U.S. labor market improves and inflation moves closer to the Fed’s 2 percent goal. Updating their economic forecasts, Fed officials predicted their target interest rate will be 1.13 percent at the end of 2015 and 2.5 percent a year later, higher than previously forecast.
CS Indo Energy Report: Buy - Initiate MEDCO, Upgrade PTBA, reit PGAS/ADRO!
· Ami Tantri (Report Attached): Declining oil production, increasing net oil imports and heavy fuel subsidies are the concerns for
· Energy for growth. Although Indonesia is a net exporter of energy (primarily gas and coal), the country faces declining oil production; thus, net oil imports have grown by an 18% CAGR over the past eight years and have been worsened by heavy fuel subsidies. We believe the balance of energy use will shift heavily in favour of gas and coal.
· Increasing use of other sources of energy.
· Gas is cleaner. We initiate coverage with OUTPERFORM on Medco Energy (MEDC), one such company benefiting from growing gas output and increasing domestic prices. Key risks are declining oil and gas production and prices. We also rate Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) an OUTPERFORM, as it is well placed to develop more gas pipeline infrastructure, with 35% potential upside in its distribution network over the next three years. We upgrade Bukit Asam (PTBA) to OUTPERFORM. Raise TPs of Adaro, Bukit Asam, Harum Energy. Cut TP of PGAS.
Thursday (19/06/2014) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Sec)
IDX Composite 4,874 - 4,945
Pola Black Marubozu terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan munculnya tekanan jual.
Thursday Stocks Pick:
PGAS 5425-5575 (TP 2014F:5800) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 5475
LSIP 2240-2370 (TP 2014F:2755) Pola White Candle terbentuk atas LSIP mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 2290
TLKM 2395-2440 (TP 2014F:2700) Pola Short White Candle terbentuk atas TLKM mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 2410
INDF 6725-6925 (TP 2014F:8000) Pola Short White Candle terbentuk atas BMRI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 6800
BBNI 4850-4950 (TP 2014F:5000) Pola Four Price Doji terbentuk atas BBNI mengindikasikan Sideways. BUY 4885
UNTR 22300-23000 (TP 2014F:23600) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas UNTR mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 22500
BMRI 9800-9950 (TP 2014F:10500) Pola Short Black Candle terbentuk atas BMRI mengindikasikan munculnya tekanan jual. BUY 9850
BBRI 9975-10250 (TP 2014F:11500) Pola Black Candle terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BUY 10050
TBIG 7925-8100 (TP 2014F:9300) Pola Spinning Tops terbentuk atas TBIG mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 7950
AALI 26800-27450 (TP 2014F:32500) Pola Four White Soldiers terbentuk atas AALI mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 27125
UNVR 29150-30500 (TP 2014F:33500). Pola Black Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas UNVR mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 29350
INCO 3660-3775 (TP 2014F:4500) Pola Black Candle terbentuk atas INCO mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 3705
BBCA 10950-11100 (TP 2014F:12750) Pola Bearish Harami Cross terbentuk atas BBCA mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 11000
ASII 7100-7250 (TP 2014F:7950) Pola Four Price Doji terbentuk atas ASII mengindikasikan melambatnya tekanan jual. BOW 7150 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Good morning,
U.S. stocks climbed on Wednesday, lifting the S&P 500 to a record finish, after the Federal Reserve said the economy is rebounding and that interest rates would stay low for some time.
Dow.........16907 +98.1 +0.58%
Nasdaq......4363 +25.6 +0.59%
S&P 500.....1957 +14.99+0.77%
FTSE..........6779 +11.8 +0.17%
DAX...........9920 +10.0 +0.10%
CAC...........4531 -5.7 -0.13%
Nikkei......15116 +139.8 +0.93%
HSI..........23182 -21.9 -0.09%
Shanghai...2156 -11.2 -0.54%
Kospi.........1989 -12.1 -0.60%
ST Times...3277 +2.4 +0.07%
ASX 200....5383 -17.95 -0.33%
PSE...........6703 -1.8 -0.03%
Indo10Yr. 8.1962+0.0335+0.41%
US10Yr.....2.61% -0.04 -1.58%
VIX...........10.61 -1.45 -12.02%
USD Index...80.40 -0.21 -0.26%
Como Indx.309.40+0.37 +0.12%
DJUSCL......144.41+1.86 +1.30%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)
IndoCDS.....151.52+9.51 +6.67%
(5-yr INOCD5)
IDR...11996.5+104+0.87%(
Jisdor...... 11978 +115 +0.97%
Euro........1.3590 +0.0043+0.34%
TLKM..40.87 +0.41 +1.01%Rp2400
ARMS Plc...181.75 +4.00 +2.25%
EIDO......... 27.00 +0.13 +0.48%
EEM.......... 43.90 +0.48 +1.11%
Oil............105.97 -0.66 -0.62%
Gold ......1277.97 +6.65 +0.51%
Timah......22450 -25 -0.11% Nickel......18560 -605 -3.16%
Coal..........71.85 -0.40 -0.55%
CPO.......2473RM+34 +1.39%$765
Corn.........439.50 +0 +0.00%
SoybeanOil.40.14 +0.29 +0.73%
Wheat.......596.25 -5.50 -0.93%
(DE/ls- 19-06-14)
Global Market Snapshot 19 Jun:
===================
• U.S. stocks rose with the S&P 500 at a record high after The Fed hinted of lower interest-rate in the long run than it had indicated previously.
• FOMC results: 1) Expressed confidence the U.S. economic recovery was on track and hinted a slightly aggressive pace of rate increases next year. 2) Lowered their projections for the long-run target interest rate from 4% to 3.75% as the
• PM Li Keqiang said that
• Rupiah weakened past 12,000 per dollar for the first time since February as importers hoarded dollars to meet future payments amid concern a surge in oil prices will worsen the trade balance.
• Plunging thermal coal prices will force some small and low-margin producers in Indonesia out of business 'in panic mode' before year-end, an industry group said.
• Indonesia FDI is expected to be 15% higher than a year earlier in the 2nd quarter, compared with a 9.8% increase in 1st quarter, the investment chief said
• Jokowi promised that he would continue to conduct blusukan if he is elected as president. He also would remove the designation of religion on the identity card to prevent discrimination.
• Donations to presidential candidate Jokowi-JK reached more than Rp50bn, less than a month after bank accounts were opened to the public.
• Japanese gov't officially announced a long-awaited policy that will allow Indonesian travelers making short 15-day trips to
AGENDA EMITEN
19 Juni
- CumDate Deviden INTP Rp.900
- CumDate Deviden JKON Rp.4,2
- CumDate Deviden JRPT Rp.13,5
- RUPS : ACST, BNBR, FAST, KARW, SMRU
- PublicExpose : DNET, HADE, SMRA, STAR
-EXPIRE TREASURY STOCK TLKM TGL 19 JUNI 2014
-ANALYST ROADSHOW :
MAYBANK : 13-20 Jun Indonesia Banks Marketing - US
MACQUARIE EVENTS COMING UP:
ASEAN Property Tour 16-20th June;
CREDIT SUISSE : Indonesia Infrastructure Insights 2014: 18-19 June in Dharmawangsa Hotel, Jakarta.
Mitsubishi Corp Siapkan Investasi US$5 Miliar untuk Bangun Smelter
Perusahaan asal Jepang Mitsubishi Corp berencana memulai pembangunan smelter di Kepulauan Halmahera, Maluku Utara sebagai bagaian dari investasi di sektor pertambangan tahun ini.
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