Jumat, 20 Juni 2014

Friday (20/06/2014) Early BIRD Fundamental Perspective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Securities)

Trend naik kembali berlanjut atas DJIA didorong ekspektasi berlanjutnya perbaikan ekonomi AS dan akan dipertahankannya rezim suku bunga rendah dalam waktu yang cukup panjang oleh The Fed sehingga DJIA menguat sebesar +14.84 poin (+0.09%) ditengah data Factory Activity didaerah Mid-Atlantic bulan Juni naik kelevel 17.8, naik lebih cepat dari konsensus ekonom dilevel 14 dan lebih tinggi dari data Mei dilevel 15.4 ditengah ramainya perdagangan tercermin dalam volume perdagangan yang berjumlah 5.8 miliar saham (diatas rata-rata volume perdagangan selama bulan Mei 5.76 miliar saham). Bursa Indonesia ES perkirakan berpeluang kembali melemah dalam kisaran sempit didorong kekhawatirann terus naiknya harga minyak mentah dunia setelah Presiden Obama memutuskan untuk tidak mengirimkan pasukannya ke Irak serta terus diawasinya pergerakan USD/IDR yang bergerak liar dilevel 12,000 dimana kombinasi 2 faktor ini sangat berpengaruh sekali kepada kekuatan APBN Indonesia dan meningkatnya CAD ditengah minimnya sentimen positif dari dalam negeri.

DJIA +14.84 +0.09% 16921.46
S&P +2.50 +0.13% 1959.48
NASDAQ -3.51 -0.08% 4359.33
VIX +0.01 +0.09% 10.62
OIL +0.46 +0.43% 106.43
GOLD +41.40 +3.25% 1314.10
TIN Unch 22,600
NICKEL -190 -1.01% 18,550
CPO -17 -0.69% 2,456
EIDO -0.16 -0.59% $26.84
TLK 40.59 (2,422)
IDR 11,935

Friday IDX Range: 4,833 - 4,890

BUY: UNVR, PGAS, PTBA, UNTR, INTP, INDFBOW: BMRI, ASII, BBRI, SMGR, BBCA, LSIP, TLKM (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)"Have a Magnificent Friday & GBU All"

Good morning,

U.S. stocks on Thursday were little changed, with the S&P 500 again finishing at a record high, a day after Wall Street rallied on reassurances from the Federal Reserve that interest rates would remain low as the U.S. economy continues to recover.

Dow.........16922 +14.8  +0.09%
Nasdaq......4359  -3.5     -0.08%
S&P 500.....1959 +2.5   +0.13%

FTSE..........6808 +29.6  +0.44%
DAX..........10004+73.7  +0.74%
CAC...........4563 +32.7  +0.72%

Nikkei......15361 +245.4 +1.62%
HSI..........23168  -13.99  -0.06%
Shanghai...2024  -31.8    -1.55%
Kospi.........1992 +2.5    +0.13%
ST Times...3270  -7.8      -0.24%
ASX 200....5468 +85.5   +1.59%
PSE...........6639  -3.7       -0.06%

Indo10Yr. 8.208+0.0122+0.15%
US10Yr.....2.62%  +0.01  +0.34%

VIX...........10.62   +0.01  +0.09%

USD Index...80.31  -0.09  -0.11%
Como Indx.311.74+2.34  +0.76%
DJUSCL......146.20+1.79  +1.24%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)

IndoCDS.....145.35 -6.18  -4.08%
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR...11935 -61.2 -0.51%(blmbrg)
Jisdor...... 11916   -62        -0.51%
Euro........1.3606  +0.0016+0.12%

TLKM..40.59 -0.28  -0.69%Rp2418
ARMS Plc...182.75 +1.00 +0.55%
EIDO......... 26.84   -0.16   -0.59%
EEM.......... 43.65   -0.25   -0.57%

Oil............106.43  -0.54   -0.50%
Gold ......1319.76 +41.79+3.27%
Timah......22500   +50    +0.22%  Nickel......18530    -30      -0.16%
Coal..........71.85   -0.40   -0.55%
CPO.......2456RM -17 -0.69%$763
Corn.........447.50  +8.00 +1.82%
SoybeanOil.40.49  +0.35 +0.87%
Wheat.......602.50  +6.25 +1.05%


(DE/ls- 20-06-14)

Marketwatch 20 Juni 2014 :

- Kemarin nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap USD menembus 12.000, IHSG langsung jebol support 4875, dan tutup di level 4864, sehingga membuka peluang penurunan baru buat IHSG di level 4800.

- Pelemahan nilai tukar Rp terhadap USD konon karena menjelang akhir bulan Juni 2014, dikarenakan tingginya permintaan akan USD untuk kepentingkan perusahaan seperti membayar hutang dlsb.

- Kemarin semula sektor agri bermain dizona hijau, namun setelah memasuki sesi ke-2, semua sektor termasuk agri masuk dalam zona merah, sektor yang paling dalam adalah sektor property dan mining.

- Kondisi saat ini lebih baik "wait and see" dulu, sambil mendekati tanggal 9 Juli 2014, karena saat ini market tetap sepi oleh momentum sepak bola piala dunia dan mendekati bulan puasa.

Global Market Snapshot 20 Jun:
===================
• S&P 500 ended at another record high, extending gains for a 5th day on optimism that The Fed will keep interest rates low for a long period of time.

• Jobless claims fell last week and factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region accelerated in June, more evidence the economy was strengthening after a disastrous 1st quarter.

• Gold hit its highest in nearly 3-weeks as turmoil in Iraq supported the metal's safe-haven appeal and expected to climb this week as the situation in Iraq remains volatile.

• Nickel sank to its lowest price in about 2-months on persistent profit-taking after price had run ahead of fundamentals since stocks in LME have not been eroded as much as expected on Indonesia's ban.

• Indonesia gov't says it expects contribution of the creative economy to the nation’s GDP increase from its current 7% level to 7.5% by 2019.

• Government has expressed its concern over sluggish progress in the construction of smelters and refineries as several mining companies look to delay their projects pending a ruling from the MK.

• Chatib Basri: Indonesia’s next leader will need to discard election rhetoric and focus on raising fuel prices and luring FDI to address the budget and current account deficits.

• Jokowi dismissed that he planned ti eliminate the religion category on ID cards (KTP) if elected.

• Wiranto confirmed that presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto was dismissed from military service due to his involvement in the 1998 student abductions. But he declined to elaborate further, whether Prabowo was honorably or dishonorably discharged.