Jumat, 13 Juni 2014

Jumat, 13 Juni 2014

Friday (13/06/2014) Early BIRD Fundamental Perspective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Securities)

IRAQ WAR, OIL UP SHARPLY!!


Setelah DJIA turun -140 poin, DJIA kembali terjungkal dihari ke-2 ditutup turun -109.69 poin (-0.65%) diikuti naiknya The Vix +8.28% dimana Irak (sebagai negara ke-2 terbesar penghasil minyak OPEC) menjadi fokus dlm perdagangan Kamis setelah pemberontak terkait Alqaeda merebut beberapa kota penting di Irak & meledakkan kilang minyak & saat ini tinggal 80 mile jaraknya dari Baghdad & siap untuk mengambil alih. Jika itu terjadi maka bukan mustahil Irak akan kembali membara dimana Presiden AS sudah mengatakan akan melakukan serangan udara, sehingga harga Nymex oil naik tertinggi 8 bulan terakhir diatas US$106/barrel, bahkan bukan mustahil bisa tembus diatas USD110/barrel, dan jika ini berlangsung lama maka kondisi perekonomian dunia akan lebih terpuruk ditengah data US Retail Sales bulan Mei yang hanya tumbuh 0.3%, dibawah data Retail Sales Revisi April sebesar 0.5% & dibawah konsensus ekonom sebesar 0.6% serta naiknya Unemployment Benefit 317,000 unit (konsensus 310,000 unit) ditengah volume perdagangan berjumlah 5.5 miliar saham (sedikit dibawah rata-rata volume perdagangan selama bulan Mei 5.75 miliar saham).

Kombinasi jatuhnya DJIA -0.65%, turunnya EIDO -1.09%, naiknya Nymex oil +2.04% & perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia menjadi faktor peluang IHSG akan kembali dilanda TURUN karena dilanda TEKANAN JUAL dalam perdagangan Jumat.

DJIA -109.69 -0.65% 16734.19
S&P -13.78 -0.71% 1930.11
NASDAQ -34.30 -0.79% 4297.63
VIX +0.96 +8.28% 12.56
OIL +2.13 +2.04% 106.53
GOLD +12.80 +1.01% 1274
TIN -275 -1.2% 22,575
NICKEL -305 -1.67% 18,000
CPO +22 +0.42% 2,401
EIDO -0.30 -1.09% $27.22
TLK 40.88 (2,410)
IDR 11,790

Friday IDX Range: 4,870 - 4,960

SELL: GIAA, LRNA, TAXI, CPGT

BUY: HRUM, AKRA, PGAS, LSIP, UNTR, SMGR, SMGR, INTP, CTRA, ICBP

BOW: TLKM, ACES, BBRI, ASII, UNVR, PTBA (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)

Good morning,

U.S. stocks declined Thursday, with airline and restaurant shares knocked and the S&P 500 down for a third day, as concern about violence in Iraq increased, along with the price of oil.

Dow.........16734  -109.7 -0.65%
Nasdaq......4298  -34.3   -0.79%
S&P 500.....1930  -13.8   -0.71%

FTSE..........6843  +4.2   +0.06%
DAX...........9939  -11.1   -0.11%
CAC...........4554  -0.7     -0.02%

Nikkei......14974  -95.95  -0.64%
HSI..........23175  -82.3    -0.35%
Shanghai...2052  -3.2      -0.16%
Kospi.........2012  -3.0      -0.15%
ST Times...3293 +2.97   +0.09%
ASX 200....5429  -25.2    -0.46%
PSE...........6809 +31.2   +0.46%

Indo10Yr. 8.1685 -0.0006-0.007%
US10Yr.....2.59%  -0.05   -2.05%

VIX...........12.56  +0.96  +8.28%

USD Index...80.57 -0.22  -0.27%
Como Indx.308.62+3.39 +1.11%
DJUSCL......140.58 -4.43  -3.05%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)

IndoCDS.....142.30 -1.21 -0.84%
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR.....11790 -20  -0.17%(blmbrg)
Jisdor...... 11813 +10       +0.08%
Euro........1.3550 +0.0017+0.13%

TLKM..40.88 -0.91 -2.18%Rp2415
ARMS Plc...196.00 +5.50 +2.89%
EIDO......... 27.40   -0.12   -0.44%
EEM.......... 43.59   -0.21   -0.48%

Oil............106.83 +2.43  +2.23%
Gold ......1273.72 +12.77+1.01%
Timah......22245    -280    -1.23%  Nickel......18030    -175    -0.96%
Coal..........72.25    -0.70   -0.96%
CPO.......2403RM +24 1.01%$751
Corn.........440.00   -1.75   -0.39%
SoybeanOil.38.58   -0.09   -0.17%
Wheat.......585.25  -4.00    -0.68%


(DE/ls- 13-06-14)



 -----------------------------------------

Friday (13/06/2014) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Sec)

IDX Composite 4,870 - 4,960    Pola Black Candle terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan lanjutan tekanan jual.

Friday Stocks Pick:
HRUM 2405-2495 (TP 2014F:2550) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas HRUM mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 2425

AKRA 4500-4620 (TP 2014F:5160) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas AKRA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 4540

PGAS 5440-5580 (TP 2014F:5800) Pola Homing Pigeon terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 5490

LSIP 2190-2250 (TP 2014F:2755) Pola Spinning Tops terbentuk atas LSIP mengindikasikan melambatnyaa aksi beli.. BUY 2205

UNTR 22425-23350 (TP 2014F:23600) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas UNTR mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 22975

SMGR 15250-15550 (TP 2014F:18000) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas SMGR mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 15375

INTP 23900-24675 (TP 2014F:25800) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas INTP mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 24400

CTRA 1040-1095 (TP 2014F:1350) Pola Short White Candle terbentuk atas CTRA mengindikasikan Bulllish Revesal. BUY 1055

ICBP 10125-10275 (TP 2014F:12650) Pola Dragonfly Doji terbentuk atas ICBP mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 10175

TLKM 2345-2465 (TP 2014F:2700) Pola Two Black Crows terbentuk atas TLKM mengindikasikan Bearish Continuation. BOW 2390

ACES 830-885 (TP 2014F:980) Pola Black Marubozu terbentuk atas ACES mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 840

BBRI 10025-10400 (TP 2014F:11500) Pola Bearish Engulfing terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 10100

ASII 7325-7525 (TP 2014F:7950) Pola Bearish Harami terbentuk atas ASII mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 7400

PTBA 10800-11400 (TP 2014F:13000) Pola Bearish Harami terbentuk atas PTBA mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 10950 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)

1)   Indeks Dow Jones ditutup di level 16,734.19 melemah 109.69 point (-0.65%) #kopipagi

2)   Wallstreet melemah karena kekhawatiran tentang Irak & data penjualan ritel dan klaim pengangguran mengecewakan #kopipagi

3)   IHSG 12 Juni ditutup di level 4,934.41 turun 37.54 point (-0.76%) #kopipagi

4)   AISA on suport, range trading 2400-2550. APLN range 275-285. #kopipagi

5)   Sambut pesta bola, perhatian investor besar tertuju ke sana, sehingga pasar akan cenderung flat #kopipagi

6)   A man should look for what is, and not for what he thinks should be. Albert Einstein

7)   A trader should look at a chart for what it is, and not for what he want it to be.


Salam Profit

Ellen May

Disclaimer : Segala rekomendasi untuk beli atau jual bukan sebuah perintahmelainkan sebagai bahan pertimbangan dalam transaksi saham.
Segala keuntungan & kerugian akibat pembelian saham menjadi tanggung jawab pelaku pasar & merupakan bagian dari risiko fluktuasi pasar.

Selamat pagi dari Equity Retail Mandiri Sekuritas, 
 
 
Pasar saham AS melanjutkan pelemahan, seiring mengecewakannya data penjualan ritel dan tenaga kerja Paman Sam. Koreksi dialami indeks Dow Jones Industrial Avg sebesar -0,65% dan indeks S&P500 sebesar +0,71%.
 
 
Dari pasar Asia, pergerakan pasar saham dipengaruhi oleh eskalasi yang terjadi di Irak. Koreksi pasar saham Asia ditunjukkan oleh indeks Nikkei 225 sebesar -0,89% dan indeks KOSPI Composite di Korea Selatan sebesar -0,51%.
 
 
Sementara harga kontrak berjangka (futures) komoditas bergerak variatif. Harga minyak mentah WTI naik +0,38% ke posisi US$106,93 per barel. Sedangkan harga emas Comex terkoreksi -0,08% ke level US$1.273 per troy ounce.
 
 
Dari dalam negeri, Bank Indonesia (BI) kembali mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga acuan (BI Rate) di angka 7,5%. Di sisi lain, Pertumbuhan kredit pada sektor swasta di April 2014 melambat menjadi 18,5% secara tahunan atau year on year (yoy), dari bulan sebelumnya 19,1%.  

 

 
Sedangkan indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) kemarin diperdagangkan diatas EMA 200 hari. Analis Teknikal Mandiri Sekuritas mengatakan, indeks memasuki fase konsolidasi dan bergerak melemah setalah gagal breakoutfibo 50%. Hari ini indeks masih akan bergerak mixed dengan kecenderungan melemah dengan penurunan terbatas. Indeks akan bergerak dikisaran support 4.914 dan resistance 4.959. Berikut beberapa rekomendasi saham yang layak dikoleksi untuk hari ini:

 

 

Ticker                  Action                   Target                   Stoploss

INCO                    Sell                         3.600                     -

SMGR                   Spec Buy                 15.950                   15.000

MAIN                    Spec Buy                 3.000                     2.790

SMRA                   BOW                       1.290                     1.135

AKRA                    Buy                         4.715                     4.245

                                           

Global Market Snapshot 13 Jun:
===================
• U.S. stocks fell as concerns escalated about Iraq and after disappointing economic data on retail sales that rose less than expected in May and jobless claims increased last week.

• Crude oil prices hit a 9-month high above US$106 a barrel on Thursday on supply concerns and equities sold off as violence threatened stability in Iraq.

China's rapid accumulation of FX reserves creates difficulties for steering economic policy, officials said. Reserves hit record $3.95 trillion in Q1 that increase domestic money supply and create potential inflation pressures.

• Thousands of tonnes of "invisible" copper now being hurriedly ushered out of some Chinese warehouses. Some banks relocate the metal to better-known warehousing firms elsewhere that are part of the LME's system. The shift fueled concern of rise in LME stockpiles that would add pressure to the prices.

• CEO of Freeport and Newmont are both in Jakarta to resolve a dispute over tax again. Both are argued they should be exempt from the 25% tax and rises to 60% in 2H16, before a total ban in 2017.

Indonesia gov't has dropped a plan for BMRI to buy BBTN. Chairul Tanjung told reporters that the banks are not compatible enough for a merger.

• Bank Indonesia held its key interest rate at 7.5% for a 7th straight meeting, citing risks from the global economy as growth slows.

• A recent survey by Deutsche Bank shows that the 56% of investors would offload their shares while only 13% would buy more shares.

Daily Technical, Jumat 13 Juni 2014

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI): Sideways
 
·      Estimasi indeks (13-Jun-14) : 4.915-4.955

·      Katalis:
-         Inflasi Mei sesuai ekspektasi di 7.3% YoY
-         Cadangan devisa Indonesia naik 1,3% MoM di US$107M (setara 6,2x imports)
-         BI Rate diperkirakan dipertahankan di level 7.5% di Jun14
 
·      Ulasan teknikal:
-         Resisten IHSG di level 5.250
-         Tren naik sejak Des13 telah patah
-         Level 4.725 menjadi basis akumulasi untuk MT trading
-         LT support di 4.600
 
Our Best Trading Ideas for Today
ICBP Add LT trading range 9.700-11.500
INTP Add Basis support di 21.300; target resisten di 27.500
ASRI Add Potensi trading range di 450-690
PGAS Red Level 5.500-5.600 area profit taking ST trading
UNVR Red Trd range di 27.500-31.000; profit taking di area resisten

Kresna Research Department
(Disclaimer On)

MARKET UPDATE, Jumat 13 Juni 2014

Global equities markets traded mostly southwards on Thursday: Asian and US were down by 0.1% (144.4) and 0.7% (16,734) respectively, while the EU market was flat. Asian stocks were lower on Thursday amid concerns about global growth and escalating violence in Iraq. Nervousness stemmed from developments in Iraq, as Al Qaeda-linked groups took control of the northern city of Tikrit on Wednesday, threatening the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline. Across the ocean, U.S. stocks opened slightly lower, as retail sales rose less than expected in May, which saw sales rise 0.3%, while still below expectations at 0.6%. Participants were also worried by oil supply disruptions amid a Sunni militant uprising in Iraq that had rebels controlling two cities while Iran was sending elite troops to help the Iraqi government fight the rebellion. U.S. President Barrack Obama said he would not rule out the use of airstrikes to help Iraq's government. Moving to our domestic markets, the Jakarta Composite Index closed down on Thursday afternoon, falling by 0.8% (4,934) as the market was affected by the World Bank trimming its global growth target and after Bank Indonesia (BI) announced its intention to keep its policy rate at 7.5% (as expected). Thus, having all the above sentiments, we expect the JCI to trade within 4,915-4,955 today.

HEADLINE NEWS
·         BUMI warns of default
·         PALM sets capex at Rp500.0bn
·         MPMX to construct Rp275.0bn plant, add 4,000 new fleets
·         TPPI shuts Tuban plant
·         HRUM aims to acquire new coal mines for $450.0m
 
 
Kresna Research Department
(Disclaimer On)

Besok debat capres lagi, trend sideways, clear posisi aja, fight no no, damai sambil kipas2 bawa cash aja, siap2 nonton aja, dicl on

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