"SETINGAN EFORIA POLITIK: BERFIKIR LOGIS, BERSIAP AMBIL UNTUNG"
Setelah seminggu lalu DJIA turun -2.35%, bukan berarti minggu ini tantangan mjd turun, justru naik, bukan hanya diawal pekan menunggu apa hasil referendum yg tjd di Crimeria-Ukraina, jg data ekonomi AS yg akan direlease sepanjang minggu ini cukup berat shg DJIA diperkirakan berfluktuasi cukup besar, diantaranya: Empire Manufacturing, Industrial production; CPI, Housing Starts; Fed QE3 Pace, FOMC Rate Decision & Existing Home Sales.
Disaat Bursa Asia selama seminggu lalu turun tajam spt: Nikkei -6.2%, HSI -4.95% & STI -2%, sebaliknya IHSG bergerak anomali krn naik +192.75 poin (+4.11%), terutama naik tajam dihari Jumat +3.23% disaat pengumuman salah satu capres, tetapi apakah IHSG benar-benar naik akibat faktor tsb?
ES melihat justru kenaikan IHSG Jumat di sesi 2 diduga lebih disebabkan adanya SETINGAN seolah-olah mendukung. Coba perhatikan bbrp clue:
Ada 3 saham big caps yakni: ASII, BBRI, BMRI yg didorong naik menyumbang sekitar +70.35 poin terhadap kenaikan IHSG +152.48 poin, yg dilakukan oleh 6 broker asing sbg net buyer dimana kita tahu 3 saham tsb sbg penyumbang terbesar IHSG. Jadi dgn mendorong naik 3 saham tsb diharapkan akan mendorong naik juga saham lain;
Disaat proyeksi ekonomi, revenue & net profit mengalami PERLAMBATAN di thn 2014, membuat valuasi dari bbrp saham mjd mahal;
Dari track record selama 1.5 thn dgn 19 janji yg akan dilakukan, apakah sudah terlihat keberhasilannya?
Menghadapi eforia politik spt ini, ES sarankan agar nasabah MNC Securities harus tetap berpikir logis, rasional, jangan emosional serta bertumpu atas kinerja & valuasi secara fundamental agar tidak terjebak membeli saham secara valuasi sudah mahal.
Monday IDX Range: 4,743 - 4,946
SELL: ASII, BBRI, INTP, JSMR, PTPP, UNVR
SOS: BMRI, WIKA, INDF
BUY: PGAS, ICBP, KLBF, UNTR, TLKM, GGRM, CPIN (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Monday (17/03/2014) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Sec)
IDX Composite 4,743 - 4,946
Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation.
Monday Stocks Pick:
ASII 7375-8025 (TP 2014F:7950) Pola White Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas ASII mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. SELL 7800
BBRI 9475-10800 (TP 2014F:9800) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. SELL 10300
INTP 22250-25100 (TP 2014F:24100) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas INTP mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. SELL 24000
JSMR 5525-5950 (TP 2014F:5590) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas JSMR mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. SELL 5800
PTPP 1700-1925 (TP 2014F:1780) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas PTPP mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. SELL 1825
UNVR 29900-31600 (TP 2014F:31500). Pola Four White Soldiers diarea overbought terbentuk atas UNVR mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation dibayangi profit taking. SELL 31000
BMRI 9450-10550 (TP 2014F:10500) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas BMRI mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. SOS 10300
WIKA 2320-2580 (New TP 2014F:2640) Pola Two White Soldiers diarea overbought terbentuk atas WIKA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation dibayangi profit taking. SOS 2530
INDF 7575-7900 (TP 2014F:8000) Pola Four White Soldiers diarea terbentuk atas INDF mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. SOS 7750
PGAS 5150-5400 (TP 2014F:6200) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 5250
TLKM 2200-2360 (TP 2014F:2650) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas TLKM mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 2265
GGRM 47800-49675 (TP 2014F:50900) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas GGRM mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 48975
CPIN 4180-4420 (TP 2014F:4600) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas CPIN mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 4285 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
"Have A Splendid Monday & GBU All"
Good morning,
U.S. stocks declined on Friday, with the Nasdaq Composite posting its first weekly drop in six, as concern escalated about Ukraine, two days before a vote in Crimea on joining Russia.
Dow.........16067 -43.2 -0.27%
Nasdaq......4245 -15.0 -0.35%
S&P 500.....1841 -5.2 -0.28%
FTSE..........6528 -25.9 -0.40%
DAX...........9056 +38.6 +0.40%
CAC...........4216 -34.1 -0.80%
Nikkei......14328 -488.3 -3.30%
HSI..........21539 -216.6 -1.00%
Shanghai...2004 -14.8 -0.73%
Kospi.........1920 -14.5 -0.75%
ST Times...3074 -7.7 -0.25%
PSE...........6391 -38.6 -0.60%
Indo10Yr. 8.1730 -0.029 -0.35%
US10Yr.....2.64% -0.01 -0.30%
VIX...........17.82 +1.60 +9.82%
USD Index...79.45 -0.17 -0.22%
Como Indx.302.88+0.24 +0.08%
DJUSCL......127.19+0.05 +0.04%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)
IndoCDS.....187.00+4.34 +2.38%
(5-yr INOCD5)
IDR...11356.30 -30 -0.264%(blmbrg)
Kurs Tengah BI 11421 +34 +0.30%
Euro........1.3914 +0.0046 +0.33%
TLKM..39.58 +1.71 +4.52%Rp2260
ARMS Plc...227.00 +4.75 +2.14%
EIDO......... 28.05 +1.59 +6.01%
Oil...........98.89 +0.66 +0.67%
Gold ......1382.92 +12.62 +0.92%
Timah......22875 +15 +0.07%
Nickel......15730 +15 +0.10%
Coal..........74.30 -1.85 -2.43%
CPO.......2797RM -12 -0.43% $853
Corn.........486.00 +1.00 +0.21%
SoybeanOil.42.29 -0.70 -1.63%
Wheat.......687.25 +13.50+2.00%
(DE/ls- 17-03-14)
TODAY 17 MARET
-Cum right issue MTFN 125:18 (RP 100)
-MAPI akan membayar kupon dua emisi obligasinya pada 17 Maret 2014.
-17th 2014 International Conference on Mathematics and Physics (ICMP 2014) Chennai, India
-17th 2014 International Conference on Power and Energy Engineering (ICPEE 2014) chennai, India
-17th MEED Qatar Projects Conference Grand Hyatt Doha, West Bay Lagoon, Doha, Qatar, Qatar
-17th 2014 1st International Congress on Computer, Electronics, Electrical, and Communication Engineering (ICCEECE 2014) Chennai, India
-17th The 2nd Biennial Conference on Sustainable Business, Energy and Development in Asia (COSA 2014) Hiroshima, Japan
-17th 2014 International Conference on Electronics and Electrical Engineering (ICEEE 2014) Chennai, India
-17th International Conference for Academic Disciplines (Las Vegas) Las Vegas, United States of America
-17th 2014 International Conference on Automation Engineering (ICAE 2014) Chennai, India
-17th 2014 International Conference on Mechanical Engineering (ICME 2014) Chennai, India
-17th 2014 International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Applications (ICIEA 2014) chennai, India
-China : FDI (YTD) YoY
-Singapore : Balance of Trade
-Hong Kong : Unemployment Rate
-United States: Ny Empire State Manufacturing Index, Net Long-term Tic Flows, Overall Net Capital Flows, Industrial Production Mom, Capacity Utilization Feb 2014, Manufacturing Production YoY, Industrial Production, NAHB Housing Market Index, 3-Month Bill Auction, 6-Month Bill Auction
-Austria : Inflation Rate YoY, Inflation Rate MoM
-Turkey : Unemployment Rate
-Czech Republic : Current Account
-Norway : Balance of Trade
-Euro Area : Inflation Rate YoY - Final, Core Inflation Rate YoY - Final, Inflation Rate MoM
-Netherlands : Current Account
-Canada: Foreign Securities Purchases, Foreign Securities Purchases
-Poland : Current Account
-Nigeria : Inflation Rate YoY
------------------------------
RISET CIMB 17 MARET 2014
Strategy | PDF
Jokowi is the man
Author(s): Erwan TEGUH +62 (21) 30061720, Peter P. SUTEDJA, CFA
Jokowi’s nomination as a presidential candidate should lower the potential political uncertainty and pave the way for a more certain rate cut scenario and more stable currency. We think the market would rerate further, with near-term euphoria possibly catalysing a rally. We lift our YE14 index target to 5,225 from 5,100, now assuming 15.5% COE (previously 16%). This implies 13.9x PER, 0.7SD below its 3-year mean. Fund flows into the market would mean that the bigger and more liquid stocks benefit first. We like BMRI, BBTN and INTP in this space. We think market may price in Jokowi’s presidency, which should benefit the infra and consumption plays.
What Happened
After much delay, PDIP announced the nomination of Jokowi as its presidential candidate for the Jul election. No VP has been announced yet, which could mean leaving room for a coalition partner. The timing of the announcement gives PDIP time to garner more than the expected 20% votes in the legislative election should it go in without a Jokowi nomination. Surveys suggest that it may get some 10% more votes consequently, likely at the expense of smaller parties. This should allow PDIP to nominate its own presidential candidate without forming a coalition.
1) Indeks Dow Jones ditutup di level 16,065.67 turun 43.22 point (-0.27%)#kopipagi
2) IHSG 17 Maret 2014 ditutup di level 4,878.64 meroket 152.48 (3.23%) #kopipagi
3) Penguatan IHSG didorong euphoria pencalonan Jokowi sbg presiden. Waspada profit taking jangka pendek. #kopipagi
4) ADHI capai target 3000, lindungi keuntungan, waspada rofit taking jgk pendek. Resisten berikutnya 3200. #kopipagi
5) PTPP target menengah 2000, jangka pendek waspada profit taking. TOTL target menengah 1250 #kopipagi
6) WIKA suport 2350, target jangka menengah 2850. WSKT range 770-840, target menengah 1000 #kopipagi
7) Sektor konstruksi trend naik kuat, namun sebaiknya beli di area suport, meminimalkan resiko profit taking jangka pendek.
8) AISA uji resisten 2000 jika breakout target 2100. GGRM jika breakout 50000, jangka menengah menuju 55000 #kopipagi
9) APLN range 280-315. BKSL 190-200. CTRA 1100-1200. SSIA 900-1000 #kopipagi
10) ASII range daily 7500-8000. Target jangka pendek 8300 #kopipagi
11) BBCA range 10800-11500. BBNI suport 5000 target 5600.BBRI suport 9800, target dekat 11500. BBTN suport 1240,target 1420 #kopipagi
12) BJBR 1045-1100. BMRI suport 9650, target 10750. BNGA capai target #kopipagi 14 Maret.
13) ELSA, BAJA melanjutkan trend naik #kopipagi
14) JSMR target 6200, suport 5600. SMCB 2700-3000 #kopipagi
15) Sektor yang masih di suport adl CPO. AALI trading range 26000-27000. LSIP 2200-2400. SIMP 920-1000. #kopipagi
16) Timing is everything, for trader and .. INVESTOR too. #SmartTraderRichInvestor
17) Demikian #kopipagi 17 Maret 2014 semoga mencerahkan dan salam profit ! www.ellen-may.com
Disclaimer : Segala rekomendasi untuk beli atau jual bukan sebuah perintah melainkan sebagai bahan pertimbangan dalam transaksi saham.
What We Think
Jokowi’s candidacy should lower any political uncertainties in the Jul presidential election given that he is twice as popular as his closest rival. There is a possibility the presidential election could be concluded in one round. The lower political risk may lead to a currency rally, paving the way to a more certain rate cut scenario. We think Jul is the earliest date for a rate cut should that happen. This may lead to a market rerating, followed by a potential earnings upgrade. Under a 50bps lower COE, we estimate P/BV to rerate. In the short-term, euphoria on the Jokowi nomination news may result in a rally that could push the index to 5,575, 1SD above 3-yr average adjusted P/E.
What You Should Do
In the first stage, big and liquid stocks may do well on potentially large fund inflows. A more sustained rally could be seen in sectors that are perceived to benefit from Jokowi’s presidency (infrastructure and public welfare). In the longer term, high expectations on Jokowi may not bode well for market if he fails to deliver. But that is not an immediate worry.
Key picks - big and liquid stocks
Figure 2: Key picks - big and liquid
TLKM - ADD - 2,900
BMRI - ADD - 9,500
GGRM -HOLD - 45,000
BBNI - HOLD - 4,400
SMGR - HOLD - 16,000
INTP - ADD - 27,500
JSMR - ADD - 6,000
BBTN - HOLD - 1,010
ASRI - ADD - 570
ADHI - ADD - 2,475
Our key Jokowi play picks
PTPP - ADD - 1,670
INTP - ADD - 27,500
SMRA - ADD - 1,160
CTRA - ADD - 950
KLBF - HOLD - 1,520
(DISC ON)
---------------
Rekomendasi Mingguan Lautandhana 17 Mar 2014 »»
Penetapan Jokowi sebagai calon presiden membuka peluang yang lebih besar bagi bursa saham Indonesia melanjutkan trend naik jangka panjangnya. Hal ini karenaJokowi dimata investor dianggap mampu membawa perubahan yang lebih baik dari para pendahulunya. Keyakinan pasar atas peluang Jokowi memenangi pemilu juga begitu tinggi didasari oleh dominasinya dihampir seluruh survey.
IHSG secara teknis telah masuk periode bullish dengan kenaikan sebesar 22,9% dari level terendahnya 27 Agustus 2013 silam. Namun sejumlah faktor dapat menahan laju penguatan IHSG pekan ini. Selain karena alasan profit taking, concern investor atas ketegangan yang terjadi di Ukraina akan menjadi faktor eksternal pertama yang dicermati investor.
Hasil referendum rakyat Crimea, republik otonom dari Ukraina, pada Minggu waktu setempat, 90% memilih untuk kembali ke pangkuan Rusia. Warga Crimea, yang 58%-nya adalah etnik Rusia, memilih keluar dari Ukraina karena dianggap warga kelas rendah oleh pemerintah Ukraina. Barat dan Rusia pun saling ancam untuk membekukan aset individu maupun korporat yang berada di wilayahnya.
Selain Crimea, investor juga concern terhadap prospek negatif pertumbuhan ekonomi dan potensi meluasnya default utang korporat China. Toh demikian, sejauh ini pemerintah China masih percaya diri yang dibuktikan dengan dilebarkannya rentang pergerakan mata uang yuan. Kemudian event penting lainnya yang terjadi pekan ini adalah adanya FOMC meeting 18-19 Maret.
Untuk rekomendasi pekan ini kami tidak melakukan perubahan pada komposisi saham portfolio, kecuali BBTN yang berhasil mencapai target jual kami di Rp1.225. BBTN menjadi saham ke-15 yang memberi gain (sebesar +17,8%) dari 19 kali rekomendasi kami sejak Juli 2012. Di Tabel Portfolio tersisa saham SMGR, KLBF dan JSMR yang memiliki potensial gain 5% atau lebih.
Global Market Snapshot
=================
• U.S. stocks drop, giving the gauge its worst week since January, gold rose as investors sought haven assets after talks failed to resolve the Ukraine standoff before Sunday’s Crimea referendum.
• Consumer confidence in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in March to a 4-month low, indicating spending may be slow to pick up from a weather-related setback earlier this year.
• China's central bank loosened its grip on the yuan on Saturday by doubling the daily trading range for the currency, adding teeth to a promise it would allow market forces to play a greater role in the economy and its markets.
• Ibovespa entered a bear market as concern that an economic slowdown will spur a cut in Brazil’s credit rating amid a selloff in EM assets. Brazil unveiled a $5.1 billion aid package for utilities as dry weather crimps hydroelectric output as its primary water source falls to its lowest level ever.
• Crimea referendum: With over half the votes counted, 95.5% Crimean had chosen the option to quit Ukraine for Russia, the referendum commission said two hours after polls closed.
• Indonesia’s stock index entered a bull market, advance from an Aug. 27 low to 23%, as Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo’s nomination as a presidential candidate sparked the biggest one-day rally in almost 6-months.
• With the much-anticipated official nomination of Jokowi as a presidential candidate, the electorate’s attention has now shifted to the next logical question: Who will be Jokowi’s running mate?
• Palm oil imports by India, the world’s biggest buyer, slumped to the lowest since April 2011 last month as prices surged.
Import of crude and refined palm oils fell 50% YoY. Total imports, including for industrial use, tumbled 40%.
• Tin output in Indonesia may be disrupted by prolonged dry weather in the main producing area of the world’s largest exporter, adding to signs that the lack of rain across the country is hurting commodity production.
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