Setelah DJIA sempat menguat diawal sesi sebesar +41 poin, tetapi akibat kekhawatiran 3 persoalan membuat DJIA dilanda aksi jual dan sempat turun sekitar -93 poin dan menjelang penutupan terjadi short covering mengakibatkan DJIA turun -67.43 poin (-0.41%) ditutup dilevel 16351.25 disertai kenaikan The Vix +4.23% ditutup dilevel 14.8.
Adapun 3 persoalan yg mendorong market jatuh adalah concern mengenai kekuatan ekonomi China merujuk besarnya trade defisit yang dialami China yg kemudian memicu kejatuhan harga Nymex Oil & Copper sebesar 3% (level terendah sejak Juli 2010) dimana kejatuhan copper tsb di consider berkaitan perlambatan ekonomi China sbg negara pengimpor terbesar copper.
Persoalan kedua mengenai terjadinya DEFAULT pertama kalinya Obligasi domestik China setelah Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Co., pembuat solar-panel, minggu lalu GAGAL membayar bunga obligasinya.
Persoalan ketiga Mendagri Ukraine mengatakan negaranya mungkin akan memobilisasi 20,000 orang Ukraina untuk melindungi perbatasannya dgn Rusia setelah Rusia menempatkan sekitar 19,000 pasukannya diperbatasan menjelang Referendum 16 Maret Mendatang.
Dari dalam negeri menjelang 3 hari dilakukannya Kampanye Terbuka Parpol, 16 Maret hingga 5 April, ES menyarankan ada baiknya untuk MENGURANGI posisi portofolio & hanya melakukan day trade atau short term trading seperti yg dilakukan investor asing dimana mereka sudah secara perlahan melakukan NET SELL dalam beberapa hari ini.
DJIA -67.43 -0.41% 16351.25
S&P -9.54 -0.51% 1867.63
NASDAQ -27.26 -0.63% 4307.19
OIL -1.67 -1.65% 99.45
GOLD +8.10 +0.6% 1349.6
NICKEL +100 +0.65% 15,550
TIN -25 -0.11% 22,875
CPO -29. -1% 2,872
EIDO -0.09 -0.34% $26.42
TLK 37.78 (2,151)
IDR 11,390
Wednesday IDX Range: 4,660 - 4,728
BUY: INDF, BMRI, BBRI, CTRA, ICBP, WIKA, BSDE, WSKT, CPIN, PTPP, SMGR, KLBF, TINS, SMRA, UNTR, UNVR (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Wednesday (12/03/2014) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Sec)
IDX Composite 4,660 - 4,728
Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation.
Wednesday Stocks Pick:
INDF 7350-7650 (TP 2014F:8000) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas INDF mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 7475
BMRI 9250-9525 (TP 2014F:10500) Pola White Candle terbentuk atas BMRI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 9350
BBRI 9100-9375 (TP 2014F:9800) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 9200
CTRA 1050-1130 (TP 2014F:1350) Pola White Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas CTRA mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 1075
ICBP 10900-11225 (TP 2014F:12650) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas ICBP mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 10975
BSDE 1650-1705 (TP 2014F:1680) Pola Four White Soldiers terbentuk atas BSDE mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1665
WSKT 730-795 (New TP 2014F:900) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas WSKT mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 745
CPIN 4170-4230 (New TP 2014F:4600) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas CPIN mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 4195
PTPP 1600-1720 (New TP 2014F:1780) Pola Four White Soldiers terbentuk atas PTPP mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1635
SMGR 15175-15725 (TP 2014F:16550) Pola White Marubozu terbentuk atas SMGR mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 15425
KLBF 1400-1450 (TP 2014F:1620) Pola Bullish Engulfing Cross terbentuk atas KLBF mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 1410
SMRA 1075-1140 (New TP 2014F:1250) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas SMRA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1090
UNTR 19550-20500 (TP 2014F:23600) Pola White Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas UNTR mengindikasikan Bullsh Reversal. BUY 19800
UNVR 28200-28775 (TP 2014F:31500). Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas UNVR mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 28450 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
"Have A Rainy Wednesday & GBU All"
RISET FR CIMB 12 MARET 2014
1.Cement | PDF
Cyclical not structural slowdown
OVERWEIGHT - Maintained
Author(s): Jovent GIOVANNY +62 (21) 3006 1727,
While a cyclical slowdown in demand is inevitable, we believe that structurally, the cement demand outlook remains robust. We believe the rebound in cement demand is imminent and shall catalyse sector re-rating. We reiterate our Overweight call on cement sector as we believe that demand will remain structurally robust despite a cyclical slowdown in 2014. At the same time we expect competition to remain tame in the next three years, limiting any potential de-rating risks. Our top pick is Indocement (INTP), followed by Holcim (SMCB). We also downgrade Semen Indonesia (SMGR) to Hold from Add.
Rebound in demand
Current stock multiple has reflected the weaker cement demand, limiting any potential further de-rating, in our view. On the flip side, we believe that demand will rebound by 2H14 leading into 2015 once the macro headwinds eased, which we believe, will be the catalyst for sector re-rating. Accordingly, we also expect utilization for the current incumbents will still be around 90% in the next three years, providing support to asset turnover and margin.
SECTOR COMPARISONS
SMGR - ADD - 16,000
INTP - ADD - 27,500
SMCB - ADD - 3,000
Deddy ♓•™:
2.Adaro Energy | PDF
Solid delivery
ADRO IJ / ADRO.JK | ADD - Maintained | Rp965.00 - TP: Rp1,420.00
Mkt.Cap: US$2,715.00m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$4.91m | Free Float: 40.20%
Coal Mining | Author(s): Erindra KRISNAWAN, CFA +62 2130061732, Laura TASLIM
FY13 core profit of US$284m (-25% yoy) was in-line with our and consensus forecasts (102%/118%), though reported earnings were below, mainly due to higher-than-expected non-cash expenses. 2013’s operating performance highlight the successful implementation of its cost cutting programme, whilst still delivering positive production growth to drive EBITDA to US$864m (largely as expected at 95% of forecasts). As such, we maintain our forecasts and DCF target price of Rp1,420. We keep our Add rating on its positive earnings outlook, as cemented by the 2013 operating performance.
Healthy balance sheet
A combination of positive operating cash flow and capex reduction to US$165m in 2013 has resulted in positive free cash flow generation (of US$650m, we estimate). This has allowed a reduction in debt to US$2,221m, driving net gearing down to 48% and a healthy Net Debt/EBITDA of 1.9x. Included in 2013’s non-recurring charges were the expensing of deferred stripping cost and impairment of goodwill from its logistics businesses which reflect management’s conservative balance sheet stance in light of the continued weakness in coal prices.
More to come in 2014
We expect ADRO to be focused on cost reduction, in a bid to keep its cash cost at US$35-38/t, and planned stripping ratio at 5.7x. Plotted against our flat 2014 coal price assumption, the sustainable costs and growing production (albeit slower than 2013) should translate to an earnings recovery in 2014. We also expect continued balance sheet deleveraging via free cash flow generation, and the maintenance of a low capex policy of US$200m-250m in 2014.
------------------------------
Good morning,
U.S. stocks declined on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 retreating from its record, as news from China hit commodity prices, concern about Ukraine lingered and investors awaited signals on the direction of the economy.
Dow.........16351 -67.4 -0.41% Nasdaq......4307 -27.3 -0.63%
S&P 500.....1868 -9.5 -0.51%
FTSE..........6685 -3.9 -0.06%
DAX...........9308 +42.3 +0.46%
CAC...........4350 -21.1 -0.48%
Nikkei......15224 +104 +0.69%
HSI..........22269 +4.7 +0.02%
Shanghai...2001 +2.1 +0.10%
Kospi.........1964 +9.5 +0.48%
ST Times...3129 +2.8 +0.09%
PSE...........6530 +42.4 +0.65%
Indo10Yr. 8.2300-0.069 -0.833%
US10Yr.....2.77% -0.02 -0.65%
VIX...........14.80 +0.60 +4.23%
USD Index...79.76+0.02 +0.03%
Como Indx.304.93 -1.07 -0.35%
DJUSCL......129.04 -1.90 -1.45%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)
IndoCDS.....179.83 -1.17 -0.65%(5-yr INOCD5)
IDR...11400 +30+0.264%(blmbrg)
Kurs Tengah BI 11384 -65 -0.57%
Euro........1.3861 -0.0017 -0.122%
TLKM..37.78 -0.34 -0.89%Rp2150
ARMS Plc...221.00 -5.50 -1.46% EIDO......... 26.42 -0.09 -0.34%
Oil...........99.59 -1.38 -1.37%
Gold ......1348.99 +9.13 +0.68%
Timah......22600 -250 -1.09% Nickel......15430 +10 +0.06%
Coal..........74.30 -1.85 -2.43%
CPO.......2872RM-29 -1.02% $875
Corn.........483.25 +5.00 +1.05%
SoybeanOil.43.75 -0.11 -0.25%
Wheat.......659.00+18.25 +2.85%
(DE/ls- 12-03-14)
PROSPEK SAHAM SEKTOR BATUBARA
Prospek saham-saham sektor batubara masih negatif, meski dari sisi valuasi sebenarnya sudah terdiskon cukup besar. Masih buruknya pergerakan harga batubara dunia menjadi determinan utama yang menghambat kebangkitan (rebound) saham-saham sektor ini.
Berdasarkan data Bloomberg per Selasa (11/3), valuasi tiga saham batubara yang masuk kategori big cap sebenarnya sudah jauh di bawah rata-rata industri. Ini terlihat dari Price-to-Earning Ratio (PER) saham PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG), PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) dan PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO).
ITMG tercatat sebagai saham batubara paling murah, terlihat dari PER yang sebesar 11,02 kali. Level PER ITMG ini jauh di bawah rata-rata industri batubara yang tercatat 20,15 kali.
PTBA menjadi saham batubara dengan valuasi termurah kedua dengan PER 11,67 kali. Sementara posisi ketiga saham batubara dengan valuasi terendah adalah ADRO dengan PER di level 11,82 kali.
Pengamat pasar modal, Hans Kwee bilang, harga saham-saham sektor batubara sudah mencapai level terendah (bottom). Ini merupakan efek dari terus turunnya harga saham-saham sektor ini sejak pertengahan tahun 2012 lalu.
Masalahnya, valuasi yang terdiskon ini tak lantas mendongkrak prospek saham-saham sektor batubara. "Harga saham-saham batubara justru akan sulit naik setidaknya di tahun ini," kata Hans, Selasa (11/3).
Proyeksi ini terkait dengan terus anjloknya harga batubara dunia sebagai akibat dari penurunan permintaan dari China. Per Senin (10/3) lalu, harga batubara acuan Newcastle kembali turun ke level US$ 73,4 per ton.
Ini adalah level terendah harga batubara sejak Maret 2009. Hans bilang, harga batubara dunia diperkirakan bakal susah rebound lantaran permintaan dari China terus turun dalam beberapa bulan terakhir.(Kontan)
1) Indeks Dow Jones 11 Maret 2014 ditutup di level 16,351.25 melemah 67.43point (-0.41%) krn aksi profit taking. #kopipagi
2) IHSG 11 Maret 2014 ditutup di level 4,704.21 naik 26.97(0.58%). #kopipagi
3) CPO : AALI, LSIP waspada profit taking. #kopipagi
4) Property : ADHI kembali breakout di level 2600, target 3000. TOTL range 830-900 #kopipagi
5) Property : APLN breakout di 245, target jangka menengah 310. Range daily 245-265 #kopipagi
6) Property : ASRI target menengah 700.AUTO range trading 3800-4000. BEST range daily 635-700. Target menengah 800 #kopipagi
7) Property : BKSL breakout di 180 target menengah 240. Range daily 180-225. MDLN range 425-440. PWON target 385 #kopipagi
8) Banking : BBNI target 5000. BBRI target 9550. BBTN 1250. BJBR 1025-1060. #kopipagi
9) Sektor lain : MNCN lampaui target #Kopipagi 10 Maret. Jika breakout 2800 potensi ke 3000. #kopipagi
10) GPS is for traveller. Chart is for trader. #kopipagi
11) #TrainingTradingProfits Maret & Mei FULL, waiting list periode berikutnya, email WL#nama#hp keseminar.ellen@gmail.com
12) Demikian #kopipagi 12 Maret 2014 semoga mencerahkan dan salam profit ! www.ellen-may.com
--
Salam profit,
Ellen May
Twitter : @pakarsaham
www.ellen-may.com
Learn,practice & pray, miracle happens. No action nothing happen
TODAY 12 MARET 2014
-Rupslb BNII
-European Pulp and Paper Outlook Conference
March 10-12, 2014
-DEUTSCHE BANK : PT Pan Brothers Tbk PT: Company Update - JKT 3/10, SG 3/11-12 & HK 3/13-14
-DEUTSCHE BANK : PT Solusi Tunas Pratama Tbk: Company Update - HK 3/11-12 & SG 3/13-14
-ADVANCED COAL POWER-GEN CHINA 2014 12-13 March, 2014 Huangpu, China OPPLAND
-IHS is hosting the McCloskey 21st Annual Coal Conference of the Americas in Cartagena, Colombia on March 12-13, 2014.
-Day One Mar 12th, 2014 Wednesday
Advanced coal power-gen development in China and Globally: outlook, technology roadmap and project updates
-Day Two Mar 13th, 2014 Thursday
Technology Innovation Drives Coal-fired Power Generation Improvement
-12th C5's Forum on Mining Law, Projects and Regulation in West Africa The Sheraton Park Lane Hotel, Picadilly, London, W1J 7BX, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
-Portugal : GDP Growth Rate QoQ - 2 Est
-South Korea : Unemployment Rate
-Australia: WESTPAC Consumer Confidence Index, WESTPAC Consumer Confidence Change Mar 2014, Home Loans MoM
-Japan : BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions, BOJ Monthly Report, Consumer Confidence
-Thailand Interest Rate Decision
-South Africa : Current Account
-Spain : Inflation Rate YoY - Final, Inflation Rate Mom - Final
-Turkey : Current Account
-Netherlands : Manufacturing Prod YoY
-United Kingdom : Balance of Trade
-Euro Area : Industrial Production YoY, Production MoM
-Greece : Industrial Production YoY
-Netherlands : Industrial Production YoY, Industrial Production MoM
-Poland : Industrial Production MoM
-Portugal: Inflation Rate MoM, Inflation Rate YoY Feb 2014, Balance of Trade
-Brazil : Inflation Rate YoY, Inflation Rate MoM
-India : Inflation Rate YoY, Industrial Production YoY, Manufacturing Production YoY
-United States : MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, EIA Crude Oil Stock Change
------------------------------
ASEAN Agri-Commodities, ASEAN
Raise 2014 CPO price forecast to M$2,775 - ride the momentum into 2Q but time your exit; downgrade AALI to UW
We raise our CPO price forecast for 2014 by 5% to M$2,775/MT as we factor in the negative production impact from the dry weather since February, improved demand visibility from the B10 biodiesel program in Indonesia, and overall supply tightness of CPO in the system. We recommend taking profits on names with stretched valuations; we therefore downgrade AALI to UW* and reiterate our UW on BWPT & IFAR.
SAHAM2 YANG MEMPUNYAI INDUSTRIAL LANDBANK MENGALAMI PENINGKATAN HARGA DI BEI
Hal ini terkait dgn Peraturan Menteri Keuangan Nomor 147/PMK.04/2011 tentang Kawasan Berikat, yg mulai berlaku sejak 1 Januari 2012. Dalam peraturan ini ditegaskan bahwa kawasan berikat hrs berlokasi di kawasan industri (kecuali perusahaan2 yg memenuhi persyaratan tertentu dan yg tdk memungkinkan relokasi), pemerintah memberikan waktu untuk masa transisi (relokasi pabrik) sampai 31 Desember 2014 kepada perusahaan2 untuk menyesuaikan dengan peraturan tsb
kumpulkan beberapa emiten property yang memiliki lahan industri dan diperkirakan akan diuntungkan dengan penerapan perpu menkeu Nomor 147/PMK.04/2011 diantaranya sbb :
SUMBER : HIMPUNAN KAWASAN INDUSTRI INDONESIA (see more : http://hki-industrialestate.
1.CILEGON – BANTEN
-Krakatau Industrial Estate Cilegon ( Krakatau IE )***
-Jababeka Tbk ( Jababeka IE )***
2.SERANG - BANTEN
-Puncak Ardimulia Realty ( ModernCikande IE )***
-Modern Industrial Estate ( ModerCikande IE )***
-The New Asia Industrial Estate ( ModernCikande IE )***
-Mustika Lodan ( KI Terpadu MGM Cikande )
3.TANGERANG – BANTEN
-Bumi Serpong Damai ( Taman Tekno BSD )***
-Bumi Citra Permai ( Millenium IE )***
Next..
Global Market Statistics 12 Mar 2014
DJIA.........16351 -67.4 -0.41%
S&P 500....1867 -9.54 -0.51%
Nasdaq......4307 -27.2 -0.63%
FTSE..........6685 -3.93 -0.06%
CAC...........4349 -21.1 -0.48%
DAX...........9308 +42.3 +0.46%
Nikkei......15224 +104. +0.69%
HSI..........22269 +4.68 +0.02%
US10Yr.......2.77 -0.01 -0.35%
EUR........1.3858 -0.00 -0.13%
IDR..........11400 +30.0 +0.26%
EIDO.........26.42 -0.09 -0.34%
EEM..........38.81 -0.44 -1.12%
TLK...........37.78 -0.34 -0.89%
ARMS Plc...221.0 -5.50 -2.43%
CrudeOil....100.0 -1.09 -1.08%
Gold...........1349 +10.2 +0.76%
Tin...........22600 -250. -1.09%
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