Kombinasi mengencilnya defisit perdagangan AS bulan November sebesar 12.9% menjadi US$34.3 miliar (defisit perdagangan terkecil sejak Oktober 2009) akibat naiknya ekspor & turunnya impor seiring turunnya impor BBM setelah turunnya harga minyak mentah serta turunnya tingkat pengangguran German bulan Desember menjadikannya level terendah selama 5 bulan terakhir secara tidak terduga menjadi faktor DJIA mengalami rebound setelah menguat sebesar +105.84 poin (+0.64%) ditutup dilevel 16530.94 disertai penurunan The Vix sebesar -4.65% ditutup dilevel 12.92.
Bagaimanakah kondisi IHSG dalam perdagangan Rabu ini merujuk kenaikan triple digit DJIA sebesar +105.84 poin (+0.64%), apakah IHSG akan terdorong naik?
Jawaban ES, IHSG BELUM TENTU NAIK merujuk kejatuhan EIDO sebesar -0.37%, kembali melemahnya Rupiah dilevel 12,230 serta akibat pemberlakuan Fraksi Baru yang sangat TIDAK KONDUSIF membuat investor berpikir 1000x sebelum masuk saat ini.
Level support IHSG 4,126 penting untuk disimak, jika level support tsb tembus bukan mustahil kita akan melihat level 4,000 sebelum masuk masa kampanye legislatif yang akan dimulai 11 Januari hingga 5 April 2014 yang berpotensi mendorong IHSG menuju level 3,800.
DJIA +105.84 +0.64% 16530.94
S&P +11.11 +0.61% 1837.88
NASDAQ +39.5 +0.96% 4153.18
VIX -0.63 -4.65% 12.92
OIL +0.44 +0.47% 93.87
GOLD -6.5 -0.52% 1231.5
NICKEL -45 -0.33% 13,515
TIN +75 +0.34% 21,800
CPO -43 -1.65% 2,561
EIDO -0.08 -0.37% 21.68
TLK 34.12 (2,086)
IDR 12,230
Wednesday IDX Range: 4,126 - 4,232
BUY: ACES, BBRI, UNTR, BBCA, GGRM
BOW: ASII, INTP, UNVR, INDF, KLBF, CPIN, AKRA, SMGR, BMRI, ICBP, TLKM (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
"Have a Marvelous Wednesday and GBU All"
Wednesday (08/01/2014) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Sec)
IDX Composite 4,126 - 4,232
Pola Three Black Crows terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan Bearish Continuation.
Wednesday Stocks Pick:
ACES 610-660 (TP 2014F:800) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas ACES mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 625
BBRI 7000-7150 (TP 2014F:8800) Pola Gravestone Doji terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 7025
UNTR 19550-20200 (New TP 2014F:23600) Pola White Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas UNTR mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 19650
BBCA 9200-9575 (TP 2014F:11700) Pola Bullish Harami terbentuk atas BBCA mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 9325
GGRM 42675-43625 (TP 2014F:50900) Pola Dragonfly Doji terbentuk atas GGRM mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 42825
ASII 6700-7050 (TP 2014F:7950) Pola Black Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas ASII mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 6775
INTP 19900-20650 (TP 2014F:24100) Pola Black Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas INTP mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 20100
UNVR 25800-27000 (TP 2014F:31500). Pola Black Marubozu terbentuk atas UNVR mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 26100
INDF 6500-6750 (TP 2014F:8000) Pola Matching Low terbentuk atas INDF mengindikasikan munculnya profit taking. BOW 6575
KLBF 1250-1320 (TP 2014F:1500) Pola Two Black Crows terbentuk atas KLBF mengindikasikan Bearish Continuation. BOW 1270
CPIN 3200-3425 (TP 2014F:4200) Pola Black Marubozu terbentuk atas CPIN mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 3250
AKRA 4330-4470 (TP 2014F:5300) Pola Three Black Crows terbentuk atas AKRA mengindikasikan Bearish Continuation. BOW 4370
SMGR 14050-14400 (TP 2014F:16550) Pola Short Black Candle terbentuk atas SMGR mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 14200
TLKM 2000-2110 (TP 2014F:2650) Pola Two Black Crows terbentuk atas TLKM mengindikasikan Bearish Continuation. BOW 2020 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Good morning,
U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 halting a three-session drop, as investors took an optimistic stance ahead of Friday's jobs report and fourth-quarter earnings, which start in earnest this week.
Dow.........16531 +105.8 +0.64%
Nasdaq......4153 +39.5 +0.96%
S&P 500....1838 +11.1 +0.61%
FTSE..........6756 +24.7 +0.37%
DAX...........9506 +78.2 +0.83%
CAC...........4263 +35.1 +0.83%
Nikkei......15814 -94.5 -0.59%
HSI..........22713 +28.6 +0.13%
Shanghai...2047 +1.6 +0.08%
Kospi.........1959 +6.2 +0.32%
ST Times...3121 -2.9 -0.24%
PSE...........5947 -38.4 -0.09%
Indo10Yr. 9.136 +0.093 +1.02%
US10Yr.....2.94% -0.02 -0.81%
VIX...........12.92 -0.63 -4.65%
USD Index...80.87 +0.21+0.27%
Como Indx.276.83 -0.27 -0.10%
DJUSCL......135.89 -2.52 -1.82%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)
IndoCDS.....242.50 -9.31 -3.70%
(5-yr INOCD5)
IDR......12238 +57 +0.468%(blmbrg)
Kurs Tengah BI 12262 vs 12230
Euro.....1.3616 -0.0014 -0.103%
TLKM..34.12 +0.17+0.50%Rp2088
ARMS Plc...242.50 +2.50 +1.04%
EIDO.........21.68 -0.08 -0.37%
Timah......21750 +130 +0.60%
Nickel......13470 -70 -0.52%
CPO........2561RM -45 -1.73%$779
Corn.........426.00 -1.75 -0.41%
SoybeanOil.37.93 -0.19 -0.50%
Wheat........602.5 -3.25 -0.54%
DOC(24Sep)6750
(DE/ls- 08-01-14)
*********
Awal tahun 2014, tanggal 2 Januari IHSG berhasil naik hingga level 4331, setelah itu 3 hari berturut-turut turun hingga level 4175, berarti penurunan rata-rata sekitar 50 points per hari, disertai oleh asing net buy secara terus menerus.
Apakah ini lantaran kenaikan gas elpiji atau sebabnya belum diketahui pasti, yang jelas sejak penggantian lot size dan fraksi, IHSG makin melempem, serta para trader hampir sulit untuk trading.
Subuh ini DOw ditutup kembali naik +0.64%, sedangkan EIDO masih tetap turun -0.37%, semoga ini memberikan signal positif IHSG untuk naik.
Saham BUMI kemarin berhasil beranomali dengan IHSG, apakah ini antisipasi tanggal 10 Januari 2014 yang akan mengadakan RUPSLB? Namun tetap hati-hati untuk bermain saham ini. Sementara saham batu bara lainnya hamir semua tertekan cukup dalam.
Jika hari ini IHSG mampu naik dan bertahan diatas 4200, maka memberikan signal bagus, namun jika tidak mampu bertahan diatas 4200, maka berpeluang menguji level rendah kembali pada titik 4109.
Happy trading and always dicipline..
THIS WEEK :
08 Januari
-Tanggal Terakhir Perdagangan Saham Dengan HMETD (Cum-Right) TRIL 1:1 Rp 120 (cek lg?)
-Mini expose pada 8-9 Januari 2014, PT Graha Layar Prima (Blitzmegaplex) dan PT Intermedia Capital (ANTV) menggunakan buku keuangan September 2013 sebagai salah satu syarat IPO
-MBA Mortgage Index, ADP Employment Change Dec, Crude Inventories, FOMC Minutes, Consumer Credit Nov
09 Januari
-RDG BI (PENGUMUMAN BI RATE)
-RUPSLB : TKIM
-Mulai perdagangan Right KPIG
-Mulai perdagangan Right PBRX
-Mini expose pada 8-9 Januari 2014, PT Graha Layar Prima (Blitzmegaplex) dan PT Intermedia Capital (ANTV) menggunakan buku keuangan September 2013 sebagai salah satu syarat IPO
-Challenger Job Cuts Dec, Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Natural Gas Inventories
10 Januari
-RUPSLB : HERO, BUMI ?
-PT Angkasa Pura II (AP) menyatakan Bandara Halim Perdanakusuma akan berubah status menjadi bandara komersial pada 10 Januari 2014.
-Nonfarm Payrolls Dec, Nonfarm Private Payrolls Dec, Unemployment Rate Dec, Hourly Earnings Dec, Average Workweek Dec, Wholesale Inventories Nov
------------------------------
STRATEGY FR CIMB 08 JANUARI 2014 :
What went wrong, and what could go wrong?
Author(s): Erwan TEGUH +62 (21) 30061720, Peter P. SUTEDJA, CFA
In line with the bearish market mood, we look at what went wrong in 2013, and what could go wrong in 2014. Tapering, inflation and, to a lesser extent, ineffective government, topped the list of what went wrong in 2013. Politics tops the list of what could go wrong in 2014, while the real impact of tapering on bonds and inflation might surprise on the downside. We are cautious on 1H but expect a recovery in 2H, sparked by greater political certainty. Our YE14 index target stays at 5,100, implying 2.6x P/BV based on 16% COE.
What went wrong in 2013
While not entirely unexpected, talks of the tapering impact caught the market by surprise at mid-year, even though the real taper only starts in Jan 14. The already uncertain macro environment was made shakier still by a sharp currency depreciation that triggered growth downgrades. Policy responses were blunted, thanks to a largely ineffectual government that was plagued by corruption scandals. Indonesia became one of the poster boys for the victims of tapering.
What could go wrong in 2014?
The market seems to have priced in a smooth election and a market- neutral new government. The latter suggests room for a positive market response if the popular Jokowi is nominated president, and conversely, a negative response if he is not. The real taper test is in the bond market, pressured further by the government’s 1H front-loading of some Rp358tr in fund raising needed to plug the hole in the budget deficit and for Apr’s general election. If foreigners sell government bonds, yields may have to rise further, triggering a policy rate hike, ironically despite a mending CAD. Although currently tame, inflation could still turn ugly on a weaker rupiah and oil price factors.
bosman pangaribuan bb baru:
Reasons to be defensive
We believe there is a greater likelihood of things going wrong than right in 1H. However, the JCI is already consensus underweighted with the mood turning more bearish by the day. In the near term, the currency is the barometer of sentiment, while in the mid-term, the macro data and politics should be the determinants of 2H’s market direction.
Figure 2: 1H14 defensive plays
Telekomunikasi Indonesia - ADD- 2900
Perusahaan Gas Negara-ADD-5600
Gudang Garam-ADD-45000
Kalbe Farma-ADD-1650
Surya Citra Media-ADD-3100
Matahari Department Store-ADD-15500
Jasa Marga -ADD-6300
Figure 3: Biodiesel theme plays
Astra Agro Lestari-ADD-28000
London Sumatra-ADD-2180
BW Plantation-HOLD--1320
Sampoerna Agro-REDUCE-1160
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