Selasa, 26 Agt 2014

Good morning,

U.S. stocks rallied on Monday, with the S&P 500 crossing 2,000 for the first time, lifted by a round of corporate deals and optimism that the European Central Bank would embark on further moves to stimulate the European economy.

Dow.........17076 +75.7   +0.44%
Nasdaq......4557 +18.8   +0.41%
S&P 500.....1998 +9.5     +0.48%

FTSE..........6775  closed   closed
DAX...........9510 +170.97+1.83%
CAC...........4342 +89.3    +2.10%

Nikkei......15613 +74.1    +0.48%
HSI..........25167 +54.7    +0.22%
Shanghai...2229  -11.54   -0.51%
ST Times...3330 +4.8      +0.14%

Indo10Yr. 8.333  -0.0157 -0.19%
US10Yr....2.39%  -0.02    -0.67%

VIX...........11.70 +0.23   +0.27%

USD Index...82.56+0.23 +0.27%
Como Indx.288.54 -0.13  -0.05%
DJUSCL.....128.44  -2.76  -2.10%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)
IndoCDS...136.51 +1.005+0.74%
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR..11714 +40.7 +0.35%(blmbrg)
Jisdor...... 11714  +60      +0.51%
Euro........1.3191  -0.0051 -0.39%

TLKM..46.45 +0.21+0.45%Rp2721
ARMS Plc....67.50  closed   closed
EIDO......... 29.05  +0.23    +0.80%
EEM.......... 45.08  +0.33    +0.74%

Oil.............93.95  +0.30    +0.32%
Gold ......1276.47  -4.63     -0.36%
Timah......22425   closed    closed  
Nickel......18625   closed    closed          
Coal.........68.85   +0.35    +0.51%
CPO.......2030RM  +43       +2.16%
Corn........367.50   -4.00    -1.08%
SoybeanOil.32.96 +0.36   +1.10%
Wheat......554.50  -7.75     -1.38%

(DE/ls- 26-08-14)
[BPS Update] 26 Agustus 2014
Momentum penguatan terlihat melambat, IHSG berpotensi untuk bergerak fluktuatif dengan kecenderungan untuk melemah pada perdagangan hari ini. Break ke bawah 5,178 maka IHSG berpotensi untuk menutup gap di level 5,127 – 5,113. Support: 5,178 – 5,165, resistance: 5,200 – 5,225.
- Stochastic membentuk dead cross di overbought area.
- RSI dan ROC downward crossover MA-5 hari.
- Small red candle di dekat support.
- MACD masih cenderung flat.

Trading Ideas:
- BBNI: Trading buy. Stop loss: Rp. 5,375, resistance: Rp. 5,550 – Rp. 5,600.
- CPGT: Trading buy. Stop loss: Rp. 106, resistance: Rp. 113 – Rp. 121.
- JSMR: Trading buy. Stop loss: Rp. 6,350, resistance: Rp. 6,550 – Rp. 6,700.
- PGAS: Trading buy. Stop loss: Rp. 5,925, resistance: Rp. 6,100 – Rp. 6,125.
- WTON: Trading buy. Stop loss: Rp. 1,045, resistance: Rp. 1,095 – Rp. 1,100.

(Disclaimer On)
MANUFAKTUR ,PARIWISATA, INFRASTRUKTUR : Tiga Sektor Andalan Jokowi Dorong Pertumbuhan

Presiden Terpilih, Joko Widodo (Jokowi), mengundang pengusaha asing untuk berinvestasi di sektor manufaktur, pariwisata, dan infrastruktur Indonesia. Tiga sektor, yang ia sebut sebagai sektor kunci pertumbuhan di bawah pemerintahannya mulai Oktober mendatang.

Dalam wawancara dengan media Malaysia, StarBiz, Jokowi menyatakan Indonesia membutuhkan investasi masif jika modal dalam negeri tak cukup banyak tersedia, sehingga Indonesia makan mencari investor asing, termasuk Malaysia. "Tugas saya sebagai presiden adalah menyeimbangkan tekanan-tekanan (untuk membatasi kepemilikan asing/sikap nasionalisme) dengan komitmen saya kepada rakyat Indonesia untuk menciptakan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan lapangan kerja," papar Jokowi seperti diberitakan thestar.com.my, Senin (25/8).

Menurut Jokowi, dirinya sadar adanya tekanan politik domestik untuk membatasi ekspansi asing, termasuk di bidang jasa keuangan dan sektor perkebunan. Namun, untuk memastikan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang cepat, mau tidak mau investasi yang masih perlu didorong.

Jokowi pun menunjuk pada proyek mass rapid transit (MRT) di Jakarta yang telah dimulai setelah berdekade tertunda dengan melibatkan investor Jepang dan nilai investasi puluhan triliun. Ia pun mengisyaratkan, pengusaha Malaysia seharusnya bisa melirik sektor lain di luar perkebunan kelapa sawit, misalnya di infrastruktur.

Dalam era kampanye pilpres, Jokowi memang sempat ditanya oleh kalangan bisnis terkait dengan kecenderungan para kandidat presiden yang memainkan kartu nasionalisme di bidang ekonomi. Ia pun ditanya soal prioritas  kebijakan, terutama pada investasi langsung, bursa saham, jasa keuangan, dan perkebunan.(Ipotnews)

CLSATwo downgrades this morning:  MNC (MNCN IJ) and Waskita Karya (WSKT IJ) Abduldowngrades MNC (MNCN IJ) to UPF TP 3000 from OPF 2550 as management's task to return audience shares to previous highs will not be easy with slowing revenue ex-tv ads, growing receivables and inventory are main challenges.  Judicial review on its case re ownership of TPI remains an overhang and can be a catalyst if goes in favor of Co along with operational improvement Company, Ticker: Media Nusantara Citra, MNCNMarket Cap, ADV: US$3.5b, US$0.8mRec, TP: U/PF, Rp 3,000/shEvent: MNCN – Improving audience share is one of many task ahead – Roll over valuation to Mid-16CL – TP (up) Rp 3,000/sh, downgrade to U/PF • Hendydowngrades Waskita Karya (WSKT. IJ) to UPF from OPF on valuations maintaining 960 TP.  New Government's ability to address funding and executions are key to future contract growth but its Pejagan-Pemalang toll road"repo" deal with MNC group may create an overhang, viewing it as inefficient use of capital Stock, Ticker: Waskita Karya, WSKT IJMarket cap, ADV: US$766m, US$3.9mTarget price, Rec: Rp960, U-PF

The recent price rally since our last update has been fuelled by potential higher capital (fuel subsidy reduction) spending by the new government. We believe the rally is a bit too early as we don’t know the additional allocation for capital spending and the steps new government take to improve execution.  The company still maintains growth target of 15-20% for 15F and 16F, while they won’t see any impact yet in 2014. We are also wary of Waskita’s “repo” deal with MNC Group as this limits upside for the company and create overhang for the stock (inefficient use of capital). Rp300bn Pejagan-Pemalang toll transaction (with buyback price Rp458bn) is unfavorable for WSKT due to limited upside and low repo rate (~15% vs market rate of ~30%). MNC Group will have a buyback option for 3 years in which they will be able to observe traffic data as construction finishes in 2 years. For the buyback, MNC Group will also need to pay for financial cost and interest during construction which is included in investment cost of Rp2.3tr Waskita plans to expand pre-cast capacity to 1mt by 4Q14 and 1.5mt by end of 2016 from current capacity of 800kt pa. Their pre-cast division sales are 50% internal and 50% external, pricing the products 5-10% cheaper than WTON. Waskita plans to spin-off the pre-cast next year to spur growth and eventually IPO it similar to WIKA Beton.