Kamis, 24 Juli 2014

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)

2Q14 Review: Earnings visibility over the horizon

Earnings visibility over the horizon; Maintain Buy

Bank Central Asia (BBCA) reported a net profit of IDR4,186.7bn for 2Q14. Results came in 8.4% higher than our estimates (IDR3,861.7bn) and beat consensus estimates (IDR3,883bn) by 7.8%. We ascribe BBCA’s better than anticipated 2Q14 earnings to stable provisioning expenses. While potential credit quality deterioration remains a key concern for the industry, we believe BBCA’s prudent asset quality management will provide a strong foundation for earnings stability. We maintain Buy recommendation on BBCA. Our earnings estimates are currently under review.

Stable core earnings to reinforce investor confidence

In 2Q14, BBCA’s total operating profit came in at IDR9,891.4bn (up 1.5% QoQ). Despite weak non-interest income (down 1.2% from a quarter earlier), its net interest income continued to expand 2.2% QoQ which kept its total operating profit stable (IDR9,891.4bn; up1.5% QoQ). SG&A expenses were well contained (IDR4,386.2bn; down 6.5% QoQ) which led to an improvement in its cost-to-income ratio (2Q14: 46.2% vs. 1Q14: 48.1%). PPOP came in at IDR5,505.2bn (up 8.9% QoQ), which we believe is a solid indication that core earnings remain strong. Loan loss provisions inched up 29.1% from a quarter earlier to IDR422.9bn. This lifted the bank’s credit cost ratio from 44bps (1Q14) to 56bps (2Q14). Operation highlights for 2Q14 are summarized below:

Lending growth: Loan growth inched up only 1.4% QoQ, which brought the bank’s YTD volume growth at 3.0%. This was the lowest loan growth for 2Q since the peak of the global financial crisis (2Q09; -0.3% QoQ). We think management is overly bearish on liquidity concerns and expect the bank to revisit its growth strategies going forward. On the funding side, deposits inched up 3.5%, shifting down its balance sheet leverage (LDR 1Q14: 77.1% vs. 2Q14 75.5%).

Margins: Net interest margins improved 1bp QoQ to 6.46%. However, net interest spread decreased 1bp to 6.11% QoQ. While yields on assets improved 8bps from a quarter earlier, cost of funds widened 9bps.

Asset quality: We notice that there was a sharp increase in loans tagged as E/Ls (up 17.0% to IDR1,017.0bn). However, considering no swing in other asset classifications, we suspect that this was only a one-off. Furthermore, given NPL coverage ratio at 368.0%, we consider BBCA’s AQ metrics to be quite healthy (NPL ratio: 0.50%).

Siklus BUMN konstruksi

Sebagian investor retail senang untuk memakai PE (Price to Earning) yang disetahunkan berdasarkan data dari kuartal publikasi terakhir.  Namun hal ini tidak dapat dilakukan pada perusahaan yang mempunyai  siklus, seperti pada perusahaan BUMN konstruksi

Ada 4 perusahaan perusahaan BUMN yang tercatat di bursa efek Indonesia, adalah ADHI (market caps 5,7 tn ); Wika (16,6 tn) ; PTPP (11,5 tn)  dan WSKT (8 tn).  Sebagai perusahaan konstruksi keempatnya mempunyai sikluas yang hampir sama dimana kinerja di semester kedua jauh melebihi kinerja semester pertama, kuartal pertama merupakan kinerja yang paling lemah namun kemudian di kuartal berikut-berikutnya akan semakin kuat. Mengapa hal ini terjadi ?

Sebagian besar proyek yang didapat dari BUMN konstruksi berasal dari negara yang memakai sumber pembiayaan APBN.  Dimana pola pengeluaran belanja pemerintah lambat pada kuartal pertama namun semakin cepat pada kuartal berikutnya. Hal ini terjadi karena belanja modal pemerintah baru efektif dibelanjakan pada kuartal ketiga, karena proses birokrasi seperti pelaksanaan tender dan proses verifikasi  yang membutuhkan waktu sekitar 5 bulan.

Dari ke 4 perusahaan BUMN konstruksi tersebut diatas hanya WIKA yang mempunyai siklus yang lebih merata dibanding dengan yang lain, hal ini disebabkan oleh pendapatan dari yang berhubungan dengan konstruksi menyumbang 90% (bila usaha beton,  dikeluarkan maka menjadi 66%) sementara sisanya dari property dan realestat. Bandingkan dengan ADHI (93% jasa konstruksi); WSKT (99%) dan PTPP (98%).

Kami yakin sama seperti siklus pada tahun-tahun sebelumnya pada kuartal ketiga dan keempat kinerja BUMN konstruksi akan meningkat. Dari sisi ROE, ADHI merupakan yang tertinggi yakni 26.4%, sedangkan PTPP (21,2%), WIKA (19,3%) dan WSKT (15,4%). Sedangkan dari sisi relative valuation, ADHI mempunyai trailing PE terendah yakni 13,95 diikuti oleh WSKT (21,97); PTPP (26,57) dan  WIKA (28,83).

 Betrand and friends

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08:53, DB: Just in case you miss our index upgrade… JCI 12-mo target 6,000! We have more reasons to be incrementally positive on the election outcome therefore we believe JCI will trade up above +1-SD, implying 6,000 range on a 12 month horizon. We don’t expect material changes to earnings trajectory (now at 15%) as impacts from Government policy will likely be felt in medium-long term, however, we view that newsflow and fund flow will drive the market up! (as JCI often being a top-down-analysis-driven-market).Top picks: Large caps: ASII, BBNI, BMRI, LPPF, EXCL, SMGR. Mid/Small caps: CTRA, BSDE, WIKA, PTPP, GJTL, MPMX, SRILMarket Catalysts from here on…
-        A potential relief rally upon possible confirmation of a Jokowi win on 22 July
-        Political parties moving to JKW side would be welcome. Amongst others, Golkar, Demokrat and PPP have begun to comment on the possibility. This could bring a Jokowi-JK coalition to represent majority
-        We cannot rule out a possible fuel price hike, a gesture of goodwill for political reconciliation from Demokrat.
-        Formation of cabinet: We expect the majority of a new cabinet to be in credible and able hands. 100 days or near/medium-term program.
08:57, Laba (Rugi) Emiten 1H14 vs 1H13:
• BBRI Rp11,7t vs Rp10,1t
• SMRA Rp542m vs Rp611m
• DILD Rp199m vs Rp140m
• ADHI Rp59,9m vs Rp68,4m
• WTON Rp172m vs Rp136m
• DGIK Rp45m vs Rp37m
• BTON Rp2,9m vs Rp8,9m
• SMBR Rp123m vs Rp122m
• SIDO Rp325m vs Rp174m
• INAF -Rp50,9m vs -Rp9,3m
• ARNA Rp148m vs Rp134m
• SGRO Rp186m vs Rp27m
• KKGI $6.6jt vs $10.8jt
• MYOH Rp141m vs Rp86,8m
• RICY Rp14.2m vs Rp8.4m
• SPMA Rp23,2m vs Rp22,8m
• GDYR $0.28jt vs $5.69jt
• KOIN Rp13m vs Rp16m
10:56, Indonesia' total investment rises 16.4% YoY in 2Q ; indonesia foreign direct investment rises 16.9% YoY in 2Q.
11:34, SMGR - Rp Miliar yoy+/-
Pendapatan +12.8%
Laba Kotor +12.0%
Laba Usaha +6.6%
Laba bersih +9.3%
Konsensus 47.9%
Estimasi PANS 47.5%

EPS - Rp 476
BVS - Rp 3,584
PER - Target EPS 16.6x
PBV - 16600 4.6x
DER 0.2x

SMGR - K2-14 qoq+/-
Pendapatan +8.6%
Laba kotor +15.4%
Laba usaha +17.4%
Laba bersih +16.9%

Komentar: hasil inline dengan ekspektasi kami. Performa qoq tidak bisa dijadikan acuan untuk perbaikan karena secara siklus, performa kuartal 2 akan lebih baik dari kuartal 1. Performa terbaik emiten semen ada di kuartal 4. Rekomendasi terakhir kami adalah BUY dengan target harga Rp16.150 yang berimplikasi pada PE-14 16,1x. Kami tengah mengkaji tentang permintaan industri semen di tahun 2015 sehingga valuasi baru SMGR akan ditampilkan secepatnya.
12:30, Wskt kayaknya juga ok yah
12:38, HSBC PMI China July 52.0 vs cons 51.0.©Panin Sekuritas  

Data china good
13:32, 24 July 2014
Maybank Kimeng

 
Bekasi Fajar - 2Q missed, FY15-16 positive: BUY (TP IDR650, BEST IJ, Property)
 
-       1H14 earnings of IDR125b (-53% YoY) make up only 20% of our and consensus expectations. 2Q14 earnings of IDR34b down 63% QoQ.

-       Management stated it is experiencing delays in recognizing revenues and it may cut its FY14F revenue target to IDR800b from IDR1,200b.

-       Maintain BUY with TP of IDR650 as we expect FDI to return in 2015. BEST major beneficiary as it has ample land reserves.
 
 
Aurellia Setiabudi
15:13, BBNI - laba bersih tumbuh 15,4% menjadiRp4,9 triliun, sesuai dengan perkiraan kami sebelumnya sebesar Rp4,9 triliun. Mencapai 48,1% dari estimasi laba bersih 2014 PANS dan 50,54% konsensus Bloomberg. Kinerja sesuai ekspektasi, pertahankan rekomendasi BELI dengan target harga 5600, implikasi PBV 2014 1,8x. Panin Sekuritas