DJIA kembali dilanda aksi jual dihari ke-2, dimana dlm day trade sempat turun lebih dari -200 poin, akhirnya DJIA ditutup turun tajam -167.16 poin (-1.01%) sehingga selama 2 hari perdagangan DJIA TURUN TAJAM -268.63 poin (-1.62%) disertai kenaikan tajam The Vix +8.22% didorong kejatuhan saham retail Wal-Mart -2.4%, saham automotive GM -11.7% & saham farmasi Bristol-Myers Squibb -6.1% ditengah mengecewakannya data Industrial Production bln April yg turun -0.6% (padahal konsensus ekonom memperkirakan kenaikan 0.2%) serta CPI bulan April naik 0.3% (kenaikan terbesar 10 bulan terakhir).Hingga Kamis (15/05), 460 emiten tergabung dlm Indeks S&P 500 telah melaporkan LK Q1/2013, 69% diantara emiten tsb melaporkan earnings diatas perkiraan awal (jauh lebih bagus dr rerata sejak thn 1994 sebesar 63%).Setelah IHSG Rabu naik +70.24 poin (+1.43%) dilevel 4,991.64 akibat EFORIA Pilpres diperkirakan hanya berlangsung 1 putaran (BUKAN karena perkiraan kenaikan secara fundamental) sehingga kenaikan tersebut diperkirakan hanya SHORT-LIVED), setelah "istirahat" selama 1 hari, IHSG ES perkirakan berpeluang "DITAHAN" untuk tidak turun karena Eforia pilpres tsb walaupun EIDO turun -1%.WASPADA !! Kejatuhan harga komoditas Kamis seperti: Nikel TURUN TAJAM -6.99% (US$1,280), setelah Rabu Nikel TURUN TAJAM -4.62% (US$-970), sehingga selama 2 hari perdagangan harga Nikel TURUN TAJAM -11.61% (US$-2,370).
DJIA -167.16 -1.01% 16446.81
NASDAQ -31.33 -0.76% 4069.29
NIKKEI -107.55 -0.75% 14298.21
SHANGHAI -22.94 -1.12% 2024.97
OIL -0.83 -0.81% 101.54
GOLD -9.2 -0.7% 1296.7
TIN +73 +0.31% 23,505
NICKEL -1,400 -6.99% 18,630
CPO +20 +0.77% 2,627
EIDO -0.29 -1% $28.81
TLK 41.73 (2,388)
IDR 11,445Friday
IDX Range: 4,954 - 5,031
SELL: INCO !!
BUY: BBRI, GGRM, BMRI, PGAS, INTP, KLBF, PTBA, UNVR, AISA, SMGR, BBCA, WIKA, TLKM, ADHI, CTRA (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
"Have a Fabolous Friday & GBU All"
Friday (16/05/2014) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Sec)
IDX Composite 4,954 - 5,031 Pola Long White Marubozu terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal.
Friday Stocks Pick:
BBRI 10250-10750 (TP 2014F:11500) Pola Long White Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 10550
GGRM 56100-57775 (TP 2014F:59950) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas GGRM mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 56875
BMRI 10150-10525 (TP 2014F:10500) Pola White Candle terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 10300
PGAS 5400-5550 (TP 2014F:5800) Pola Bullish Harami terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 5450
INTP 23400-24550 (TP 2014F:25800) Pola Long White Marubozu terbentuk atas INTP mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 23925
PTBA 10350-11050 (TP 2014F:11500) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas PTBA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 10550
UNVR 30400-31250 (New TP 2014F:33500). Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas UNVR mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 30775
AISA 2335-2415 (TP 2014F:2500) Pola White Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas AISA mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 2355
SMGR 11050-16300 (TP 2014F:18000) Pola White Marubozu terbentuk atas SMGR mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 11325
BBCA 11050-11650 (TP 2014F:12750) Pola Short White Candle terbentuk atas BBCA mengindikasikan Bullish Revers. BUY 11325
WIKA 2350-2490 (TP 2014F:2700) Pola White Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas WIKA mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 2390
TLKM 2345-2435 (TP 2014F:2700) Pola White Candle terbentuk atas TLKM mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 2390
ADHI 3245-3350 (TP 2014F:3400) Pola Inverted Hammer terbentuk atas ADHI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 3260
CTRA 1080-1165 (TP 2014F:1350) Pola White Candle terbentuk atas CTRA mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 1110 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
RISET CIMB 16 MEI 20141.Plantations | PDFOpting for healthier cooking oilsNEUTRAL - MaintainedPlantations | Author(s): Ivy NG, CFA +60 (3) 2261 9073,We were slightly surprised that only 43% of respondents in our recent survey picked palm oil as their preferred cooking oil. This could be due to the rising affluence of Malaysian consumers as well as a lack of awareness of the health benefits of palm oil as cooking oil producers may have shifted their marketing activities to other edible oils over the years given that palm-olein-based cooking oil is regulated. The survey reveals that more work may be needed to educate consumers of the health benefits of palm oil. Maintain Neutral on the sector with First Resources as our top pick.We like First Resources, Astra Agro, Ta Ann and SIMP in the regional palm oil space.
2.Indo Tambangraya Megah | PDFIn search of a bufferITMG IJ / ITMG.JK | HOLD - Maintained | Rp26,700.00 - TP: Rp26,800.00Mkt.Cap: US$2,615.00m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$3.06m | Free Float: 22.40%Coal Mining | Author(s): Erindra KRISNAWAN, CFA +62 2130061732, Laura TASLIMITMG delivered a surprisingly strong 1Q14 core net profit of US$66m (+31% yoy), which accounted for 37% of our full-year forecast and 28% of consensus, driven by the larger-than-expected reduction in total costs. Despite the strong headline numbers, the company’s key earnings drivers failed to impress. Given that its ASP and costs are expected to reverse trend in the coming quarters, ITMG’s FY14 earnings outlook is challenging. We maintain our FY14-16 EPS estimates as we expect earnings to slow in 2Q-4Q14. Our DCF-based target price of Rp26,800 and Hold rating are also unchanged.
------------------------------
Global Market Statistics
Dow.........16447 -167.2 -1.01%
Nasdaq......4069 -31.3 -0.76%
S&P 500.....1871 -17.7 -0.94%
FTSE..........6841 -37.6 -0.55%
DAX...........9656 -98.3 -1.01%
CAC...........4445 -56.1 -1.25%
Nikkei......14298 -107.6 -0.75%
HSI..........22731 +148.1 +0.66%
Shanghai...2025 -22.9 -1.12%
Kospi.........2010 -0.6 -0.03%
ST Times...3273 +13.4 +0.41%
ASX 200....5511 +14.3 +0.26%
PSE...........6489 -31.1 -0.45%
Indo10Yr. 8.1694 closed +0%
US10Yr.....2.50% -0.04 -1.61%
VIX...........13.17 +1.00 +8.22%
USD Index...80.04 -0.04 -0.05%
Como Indx.307.08 -0.88 -0.29%
DJUSCL......147.40 +0.04+0.03%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)
IndoCDS.....149.13+1.345+0.91%
(5-yr INOCD5)
IDR....11446.8 closed +0%(blmbrg)
Jisdor...... 11487 closed +0%
Euro........1.3715 +0.0012+0.09%
TLKM..41.73 -0.35-0.83%Rp2397
ARMS Plc...192.75 -4.25 -2.16%
EIDO......... 28.81 -0.29 -1.00%
EEM.......... 42.98 -0.40 -0.94%
Oil............101.56 -0.81 -0.79%
Gold ......1296.45 -9.08 -0.70%
Timah......23295 -5 -0.02%
Nickel......18580 -1020 -5.20%
Coal..........72.75 +0 +0%
CPO.....2627RM +23+0.88%$813
Corn.........484.25 -11.25 -2.27%
SoybeanOil.41.04 -5.10 -1.05%
Wheat.......678.25 -12.00 -1.74%
REMINDER PGAS (TP PRICE FR CIMB IDR 6100)
"Baru baru ini Pemerintah telah menugaskan PT Pertamina (Persero) dan PGAS sebagai badan usaha yang menjalankan program konversi bahan bakar minyak (BBM) ke bahan bakar gas (BBG). Penugasan di Perpres No 64 Tahun 2012 masih pada Pertamina. Akan direvisi dan ditambahkan penugasan ke PGN. Secepatnya Perpres itu akan terbit. pemerintah menegaskan memiliki komitmen serius dalam percepatan program konversi ini."
(DISC ON)
IndoPremier
Tech Corner 160514
IHSG (4.992)
Range: 4.915 – 5.020
---Indeks naik full body candle disertai volume namun tutup diluar area upperband. Stochastic overbought sementara RSI dan MACD masih positif.
IHSG diperkirakan akan bergerak mixed cenderung melemah dengan support di 4.915 sementara resist di 5.020. Indeks masih ada gap atas di 5.069.
INTP (23.975)
Rekomendasi: BUY
---Harga naik full body candle disertai volume dan tutup tepat di upperline bollinger. Stochastic overbought namun RSI dan MACD masih positif.
Jika bertahan diatas 23.850 maka berpeluang tutup gap 24.550 kemudian test resist 25.175. Stoploss jika break & close dibawah 23.000.
ICBP (10.300)
Rekomendasi: BUY
---Setelah konsolidasi cukup lama harga breakout ke atas. Stochastic keluar dari oversold sedangkan MACD masih negatif namun cenderung menuju centre line.
Target harga 10.400 kemudian 10.575. Support 10.175, cut loss jika close di bawah 10.075.
TLKM (2.420)
Rekomendasi: Sell On Strength
---Harga masih rally mendekati strong resist di 2.420. Stochastic overbought dan MACD positif serta di area upperband.
Target harga 2.420 kemudian 2.450, sementara support terdekat 2.370.
DISCLAIMER ON
Global Market Snapshot 16 May
===================
• U.S. stocks fell for a second day as industrial production unexpectedly dropped 0.6% in April after 0.9% gain in prior month and Wal-Mart sales outlook weakest in 5-years. Jobless claims dropped by 24,000 last week, less than any economist projected.
• U.S. CPI rose in April by the most in almost a year, a sign inflation may pick up as demand recovers from a weak first quarter. Meanwhile, consumer comfort shows biggest weekly drop since October and confidence among homebuilders also falls to lowest in a year.
• The euro-area recovery failed to gather momentum last quarter, as France unexpectedly stalled and economies from Italy to the Netherlands shrank.
• Global equity markets fell on Thursday and safe-haven U.S. and German government bonds rose on fears over escalation of the crisis between Russia and Ukraine and in response to underwhelming U.S. and European economic data.
• Nickel slumped the most in 31 months in London as investors judged a rally that lifted the metal’s price as much as 56% this year to be exaggerated.
• An economist has said that the appointment of Chairul Tanjung as Menko Ekuin will not have a significant impact on the Indonesian economy, as his term in office will last only a few months.
• The Indonesian Mining Association has said that Hatta Rajasa left much work unfinished. The resignation of Hatta, who led the govt’s team to negotiate mining contracts and to set export duties for mineral products, would create uncertainty in the mining sector.
• Indonesia's new foreign-investment rules, rather than attract new investors, could deter them from entering energy, agriculture, retail, storage and other sectors, business lobby groups and some company executives say.
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