Setelah terkena aksi jual saham high-growth technology & biotech yang mengakibatkan DJIA turun tajam sebesar -386 poin (-2.35%) seminggu lalu, suatu kejatuhan mingguan terburuk selama 2 tahun terakhir, akhirnya DJIA alami technical rebound sebesar +146.49 poin (+0.91%) disertai penurunan the Vix sebesar -5.4% ditutup dilevel 16.11 didorong naiknya data Retail Sales bulan Maret sebesar 1.1%, kenaikan tertinggi sejak tahun 2012 (lebih tinggi dari bulan Februari sebesar 0.7% & lebih tinggi dari konsensus ekonom yang memperkirakan kenaikan sebesar 0.8%) serta naiknya saham Citigroup sebesar 4.4% akibat dibukukannya earnings secara tidak terduga.
Perkiraan aksi beli lanjutan atas saham disektor property, mining, finance & infrastruktur memanfaatkan kenaikan DJIA sebesar +146.49 poin (+0.91%) disertai kenaikan EIDO sebesar +1.27% serta selective buying atas saham yang mempunyai corporate action yang dilakukan investor lokal mengakibatkan kenaikan lanjutan IHSG dalam perdagangan Selasa ini ditengah berlanjutnya manuver politik yang dilakukan para parpol dalam upaya membentuk Koalisi bagi penentuan Capres & Cawapres sambil dipersiapkan mental sejak awal jika presiden baru terpilih adalah yang selama ini dianggap "Underdog".
DJIA +146.49 +0.91% 16173.24
S&P +14.92 +0.82% 1830.61
NASDAQ +22.96 +0.57% 4022.69
VIX -0.92 -5.4% 16.11
OIL -0.14 -0.13% 103.6
GOLD +8 +0.61% 1327
TIN +50 +0.11% 23,425
NICKEL +390 +2.24% 17,790
CPO +20 +0.76% 2,635
EIDO +0.35 +1.27% $27.83
TLK 40.85 (2,335)IDR 11,435
Tuesday IDX Range: 4,828 - 4,907
BUY: BJBR, TLKM, PGAS, ASII, BBRI, BBCA, UNTR, BMRI, UNVR, LSIP, INDF, KLBF, ICBP, SMGR
(ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
"Have A Splendid Tuesday and GBU All"
Tuesday (15/04/2014) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Sec)
IDX Composite 4,828 - 4,907 Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation.
Tuesday Stocks Pick:
BJBR 1120-1180 (TP 2014F:1225) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas BJBR mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1140
TLKM 2320-2380 (TP 2014F:2700) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas TLKM mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 2335
PGAS 5250-5450 (TP 2014F:4800) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 5300
ASII 7600-7925 (TP 2014F:7950) Pola Short Black Candle terbentuk atas ASII mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi jual. BUY 7675
BBRI 9625-9925 (TP 2014F:10500) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 9750
BBCA 11100-11425 (TP 2014F:12750) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas BBCA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 11225
UNTR 20950-21575 (TP 2014F:23600) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas UNTR mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 21175
BMRI 9650-9950 (TP 2014F:10500) Pola Two White SoldiersOpening Marubozu terbentuk atas BMRI mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 9725
UNVR 30125-31450 (TP 2014F:31500). Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas UNVR mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 30725
LSIP 2215-2315 (TP 2014F:2500) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas LSIP mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 2235
INDF 7125-7325 (TP 2014F:8000) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas INDF mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation.
BUY 7200
KLBF 1490-1550 (TP 2014F:1620) Pola White Candle terbentuk atas KLBF mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 1510
ICBP 9900-10150 (TP 2014F:12650) Pola White Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas ICBP mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 9975
SMGR 15575-16300 (TP 2014F:18000) Pola White Candle terbentuk atas SMGR mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 15900 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Good morning,
U.S. stocks advanced Monday, after the Nasdaq Composite briefly detoured into negative terrain, as investors embraced data that had U.S. retail sales jumping the most since 2012 while tracking tensions in Ukraine.
Dow.........16173 +146.2 +0.91%
Nasdaq......4023 +22.96 +0.57%
S&P 500.....1831 +14.9 +0.82%
FTSE..........6584 +22.1 +0.34%
DAX...........9339 +23.9 +0.26%
CAC...........4385 +18.7 +0.43%
Nikkei......13910 -49.9 -0.36%
HSI..........23039 +35.2 +0.15%
Shanghai...2132 +1.0 +0.05%
Kospi.........1997 -0.4 -0.02%
ST Times...3215 +16.6 +0.52%
ASX 200....5359 -69.7 -1.28%
PSE...........6590 -7.4 -0.11%
Indo10Yr 8.0057+0.002+0.26%
US10Yr.....2.64% +0.02 +0.76%
VIX...........16.11 -0.92 -5.40%
USD Index...79.76+0.31 +0.39%
Como Indx.311.1 +1.70 +0.55%
DJUSCL......134.96+1.12 +0.84%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)
IndoCDS.....175.00+3.13 +1.82%
(5-yr INOCD5)
IDR...11437.5+23.7+0.21%(
Jisdor...... 11444 -6 -0.05%
Euro........1.3819 -0.0066-0.48%
TLKM..40.85 +0.60+1.49%Rp2337
ARMS Plc...194.00 +1.25 +0.65%
EIDO......... 27.83 +0.35 +1.27%
EEM.......... 41.74 -0.09 -0.21%
Oil............104.05 +0.31 +0.30%
Gold ......1326.55 +8.31 +0.62%
Timah......23295 +20 +0.09% Nickel......17730 +320 +1.84%
Coal..........72.75 -0.30 -0.41%
CPO.....2621RM +6 +0.23% $806
Corn.........509.25 +4.75 +0.94%
SoybeanOil.42.46 +0.20 +0.47%
Wheat.......686.75 +18.50+2.77%
(DE/ls- 15-04-14)
TODAY 15 APRIL
-RUPS/PUBEX : AUTO, ABDA, TMPO
-CUM DEV SMBR IDR 7,9334
-MTFN START TRADING
-LELANG SBN
-LISTING PT EKA SARI LORENA TRANSPORT (LRNA) PLUS WARANT
RISET CIMB 15 APRIL 2014
Banks | A bumpier path to stability
NEUTRAL - Maintained
Author(s): Soegiarto HADI, FRM +62 (21) 30061722,
We stick to a conservative view and hence, maintain our Neutral rating and EPS forecasts generally. The stable macro backdrop in recent months suggests that COE should stabilise at 15.5% (from an assumption of 16.0% previously), as we lift target prices by 8% on average. Our top picks are BRI and Mandiri.
Near-term volatility
The less-than-favourable legislative election results could increase the volatility of the local currency and bond yields, hence reducing the chance of rate cuts. Tighter liquidity over a prolonged period may heat up the fight for bank deposits again, pressurising cost of funds. This is also in light of our view that more banks may end up with higher LDR by end 1Q14, closer to the 92% cap set by BI, as loan growth has been robust. Banks may have to slow down their loan growth further as BI is likely to place economy stability above all.
Cautious but optimistic
......... Banks are now valued at a more palatable 2.2x P/BV, 0.1 s.d. below mean. We like BMRI for its strong deposit gathering and BBRI for its micro-loan traction.
SECTOR COMPARISONS
1.BBCA - Hold - TP 11,050 -CY2014 17.4 ***
2.BDMN - Reduce - TP 3,850 -CY2014 10.5 ***
3.BMRI - Add - TP 10,700 -CY2014 11.8
4.BBNI - Hold - TP 4,800 -CY2014 9.5 ***
5.PNBN - Reduce - TP 760 -CY2014 8.1
6.BBRI - Add - TP 10,250 -CY2014 10.8 ***
7.BBTN - Add - TP 1,330 -CY2014 7.5
8.BTPN - Hold - TP 4,500 -CY2014 9.8
*CY2014 : CORE YEAR P/E 2014
***SUDAH TERCAPAI TARGET CIMB
CY2014 RATA2 INDO : 11.9 x
CY2014 RATA2 ASIA : 5.6 x
------------------------------
PT Benakat Integra Tbk. (BIPI) mencatatkan laba bersih naik 5853% dari US$0,92 juta pada 2012 menjadi US$55 juta sepanjang 2013.
SEE MORE :
http://www.idx.co.id/Portals/
Penjelasan penurunan total aset dan liabilitas SEE MORE :
http://www.idx.co.id/Portals/
BUMI Resources
Bahana
Outlook : debt swap may provide reprieve, but limited.
BUMI’s CIC debt swap is expected in 2Q14, however, with high amount of debt about to mature, we expect some re – financing, keeping debt levels high. With the swap, KPC’s profit will be distributed to its other owner, which we believe will adversely impact BUMI’s bottom line.
Recommendation & valuation : Negative coal outlook, retain REDUCE
With our view on coal outlook remaining bleak, exacerbated by this worse than – expected result, we revise down our 2014 – 15F earnings and DCF-based TP to IDR 180 (from IDR 250). With 22 % potential downside, we reiterate our REDUCE call. Upside risks to our call include better – than – expected coal prices and lower finance charges.
(PD) Construction SectorOur preferred infrastructure plays# The construction sector is a key beneficiary of post-election infra spending.# Rising contracts in hand supports earnings growth and visibility ( 4 construction companies have contract in hand totaling IDR 118 T in 2013 )# We forecast sector earnings to grow by a 25% CAGR in FY13-16F on the back of existing contracts in hand and a 21% CAGR in new contract ( including joint-operation)# We reiterate our bullish view on the sector despite its strong outperformance ytd, as we believe the sector valuatin is still demanding. We have raised our target prices for WIKA ( TP 2,900 Rupiah, PE14F / 25x ) ; PTPP ( TP 2,200 Rupiah, PE14F / 20.5x ) ; ADHI ( TP 4,000 Rupiah, PE14F / 14.8x ) ; WSKT ( TP 1,000 Rupiah, PE14F / 21x )
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