Daily Focus
Commodity detector
The tension in Ukraine is becoming the key swing factor for commodity prices. Global crude oil and European gas prices have leaped 8%, wheat and corn prices have rallied and gold prices have gone up on the back of higher investor demand for safe assets.
· Energy: Concerns over supply disruptions – Global crude oil prices have leaped by 2% as the Ukrainian crisis lifted concerns over reduced supply of crude oil to Europe. In particular, investors are eying on the Yuzhny terminal, which is physically located near Odessa in Ukraine and ships Russian oil via Black Sea. The port has a load capacity of 315,000 barrels per day. The southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline, which transports about 1.2mn barrels of Russian oil to Europe, passes through Ukraine on its way to refineries in Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic.
· Precious metals: Rising investor appetite for safe assets –Mounting geopolitical risks in Ukraine have underpinned investor demand for safe-haven assets. Gold prices are showing an upward trajectory along with the US dollar. Gold for April delivery settled up USD28.7 or 2.2% at USD1,350.3 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. This marks a 4-month high on gold price. While investors rushed into gold, the silver saw a smaller hike (up 1.2%) given investors view silver as an industrial whereas gold is purely a haven.
· Non-ferrous metal: No impact from Ukraine – Non-ferrous metal continued its decline with limited impact from the tension in Ukraine. In particular, nickel futures declined for 9 consecutive days. We assume that slowing manufacturing growth in China (the world’s biggest demand) is still continuing to be the key price driver for non-ferrous metals.
· Farm products: Soaring wheat and corn prices – Prices of wheat soared up as much as 5.9% while corn prices rose to 3.7% in response to the Ukrainian crisis. Ukraine is known to be one of the world’s biggest exporters of the two crops.
Best regards,
Research Team
PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia
Equity Tower Floor 50th SCBD Lot.9
Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav.52-53, Jakarta
12190, Indonesia
Phone: +6221 515 1140
Disclaimer:
This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia. It is purposed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia (DWS) and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of DWS, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither DWS, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed.
This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This firms and its affiliates and their officers and employees may have a position, make markets, act as principal or engage in transaction in securities or related investments of any company mentioned herein, may perform services for or solicit business from any company mentioned herein, and may have acted upon or used any of the recommendations herein before they have been provided to you. ⓒ PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia (DWS) 2014.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar