Monday (16/12/2013) Early BIRD Fundamental Perspective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Securities)
Menjelang penutupan market di 2013, minggu ini akan mjd salah satu minggu yg paling mendebarkan krn di minggu ini investor akan menunggu ketok palu tapering yg akan diannounce 18 Des dlm FOMC Meeting dmn jika merujuk data ekonomi yg direlease sampai minggu lalu menunjukkan peluang dilakukannya tapering, dmn jika tdk ada tapering market akan alami rebound, tetapi jika diumumkan ada tapering maka akan terjadi SELL OFF. Volatility diperkirakan berlanjut hingga Jumat menjelang quadruple expiration of futures & options serta rebalancing dlm Indeks Nasdaq & S&P 500
Dari dalam negeri, dgn sisa waktu 9 hari perdagangan, pergerakan IHSG sangat tergantung akan 3 hal spt: bagaimanakah pergerakan Bursa Regional, USD/IDR serta apakah window dressing akan terjadi ditengah investor diatas tgl 20 Desember mulai berkemas mengambil Christmas & New Year Holiday.
Untuk pergerakan Bursa Regional diketahui semua mata akan tertuju atas pengumuman FOMC Meeting sgkan USD/IDR berpotensi melemah dikisaran 12,200 - 12,300 shg mengacu 2 hal tsb hingga pertengahan minggu IHSG diperkirakan sangat fluktuatif cenderung melemah terlebih jika USD/IDR "jebol" diatas 12,200.
Sehingga satu-satunya harapan tinggal dari Window Dressing agar IHSG bisa ditutup diatas level 4284, moga-moga bisa ditutup seperti closing akhir thn 2012 dilevel 4316. Jika 2 faktor diatas lebih dominan terjadi maka diharapkan level 4052 bisa menjadi level support kuat utk bertahan diakhir thn 2013, otherwise IHSG bisa "Buggy Jumping" menuju level 3943.
Kondisi IHSG dihari Senin merujuk kejatuhan EIDO -1.52%, kenaikan tipis DJIA +15.93 poin (+0.10%) & Rupiah ditutup dilevel 12,100 maka ES memperkirakan IHSG berpotensi kembali TERTEKAN.
Monday IDX Range: 4,132 - 4,205
BUY: ITMG, BMRI, AALI, INDF, MAPI, PTBA
BOW: ACES, ASII, BBRI, BWPT, GGRM, KLBF, LSIP, PGAS (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
"Have a Fantastic Monday & GBU All"
Monday (16/12/2013) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Sec)
IDX Composite 4,132 - 4,205
Pola Two Black Crows terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan Bearish Continuation.
Monday Stocks Pick:
ITMG 27600-28800 (TP 2013F:37400) Pola Piercing terbentuk atas ITMG mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 27850
BMRI 7600-7900 (TP 2013F:8900) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas BMRI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 7650
AALI 23200-24800 (TP 2013F:25000) Pola Matching Low terbentuk atas AALI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 23750
INDF 6500-6800 (TP 2013F:8100) Pola Long Legged Doji terbentuk atas INDF mengindikasikan munculnya aksi beli. BUY 6550
MAPI 5500-5800 (TP 2013F:7400) Pola White Candle terbentuk atas MAPI Bullish Reversal. BUY 5550
PTBA 11500-11900 (TP 2013F:14200) Pola Bullish Harami Cross terbentuk atas PTBA mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 11600
ACES 640-700 (TP 2013F:800) Pola Dragonfly Doji terbentuk atas ACES mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BOW 660
ASII 5950-6400 (TP 2013F:6900) Pola Three Black Crows terbentuk atas ASII mengindikasikan Bearish Continuation. BOW 6000
BBRI 6850-7200 (TP 2013F:7800) Pola Two Black Crows terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bearish Continuation. BOW 6900
GGRM 39000-40100 (TP 2013F:43300) Pola Two Black Crows terbentuk atas GGRM mengindikasikan Bearish Continuation. BOW 39300
KLBF 1150-1230 (TP 2013F:1600) Pola Three Black Crows terbentuk atas KLBF mengindikasikan Bearish Continuation. BOW 1170
PGAS 4550-4725 (TP 2013F:6550) Pola Two Black Crows terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan Bearish Continuation. BOW 4575
UNVR 25600-26950 (TP 2013F:37050). Pola Black Candle terbentuk atas UNVR mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 25850
UNTR 18250-18950 (TP 2013F:21450) Pola Inverted Hammer terbentuk atas UNTR mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 18350 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
LOTS Trading Club™ | lots.co.id
Lautandhana Securindo | YJ
Global Market Statistics 16 Dec 2013
DJIA.........15755 +15.9 +0.10%
S&P 500....1775 -0.18 -0.01%
Nasdaq......4001 +2.57 +0.06%
FTSE..........6439 -5.29 -0.08%
CAC...........4059 -9.41 -0.23%
DAX...........9006 -10.5 -0.12%
Nikkei......15403 +61.3 +0.40%
HSI..........23246 +27.8 +0.12%
US10Yr.......2.86 -0.02 -0.69%
EUR........1.3742 -0.00 -0.07%
IDR..........12106 +83.0 +0.69%
EIDO.........21.98 -0.34 -1.52%
TLK...........34.35 -0.16 -0.46%
BUMI Plc...205.0 +13.7 +7.19%
CrudeOil...96.60 -0.90 -0.92%
Gold..........1239 +13.3 +1.08%
Tin...........22720 +230. +1.02%
Nickel......14040 +80.0 +0.57%
Coal.........83.95 +0.60 +0.72%
CPO......RM2561 -52.0 -2.07%
DOC..........6750 (24 Sep 2013)
Global Market Snapshot
=================
• Stocks ended Friday's session little changed, but logged their worst week in nearly 4-months on concern that The Fed could start tapering at FOMC meeting this week as 34% of economists surveyed by Bloomberg last week show it.
• Angela Merkel begins her third term as German chancellor this week by the support of her Social Democratic coalition partner and with her veteran finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, at her side.
• China's leaders pledged to maintain stable economic policies to achieve reasonable economic growth in 2014 while forging ahead with reforms, as they wrapped up a closed-door meeting on Friday.
• Rupiah slumped to the weakest level since March 2009 on concern The Fed will cut its stimulus as early as this week, and after Bank Indonesia refrained from increasing borrowing costs.
• The latest political surveys have placed the PDI-P as the most electable party in the country’s upcoming legislative election. The pollster said the party would gain even more votes if the Jokowi factor was included in the equation.
Good morning,
U.S. stocks on Friday mostly gained, cutting weekly losses, as investors remained cautious before a Federal Reserve policy meeting next week that should shed light on the central-bank's plans for its asset-purchasing program.
Dow.........15755 +15.9 +0.10%
Nasdaq......4001 +2.6 +0.06%
S&P 500.....1775 -0.2 -0.01%
FTSE..........6440 -5.3 -0.08%
DAX...........9006 -10.5 -0.12%
CAC...........4060 -9.4 -0.23%
Nikkei......15403 +61.3 +0.40%
HSI..........23246 +27.8 +0.12%
Shanghai...2196 -6.7 -0.31%
Kospi.........1963 -5.0 -0.26%
ST Times...3066 +6.9 +0.23%
PSE...........5767 +4.6 +0.08%
Indo10Yr. 8.732% -0.046 -0.53%
US10Yr.....2.87% -0.01 -0.31%
VIX...........15.76 +0.22 +1.42%
USD Index80.21 +0.08 +0.01%
Como Indx.279.67 -0.49 -0.17%
DJUSCL......135.31+0.67 +0.50%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)
IndoCDS.....210.10 -6 -2.78%
(5-yr INOCD5)
Oil..............96.60 -0.76 -0.78%
Gold.......1238.69 +11.68 +0.95%
IDR......12106 +83 +0.69%(blmbrg)
Kurs Tengah BI 12081 vs 12025
Euro.....1.3742 -0.0012 -0.09%
TLKM..34.35 -0.16 -0.46% Rp2064
BumiPlc...205.00 +13.75 +7.19%
EIDO........21.98 -0.34 -1.52%
Timah......22720 +230 +1.02%
Nickel......14040 +80 +0.57%
Coal.........83.95 +0.60 +0.72%
CPO........2561RM -51 -1.95%$808
Corn.........425.50 -8.75 -2.01%
SoybeanOil.40.20 -0.17 -0.42%
Wheat........628.75-5.00 -0.79%
DOC(24Sep)6750
(DE/ls- 16-12-13)
1) Indeks Dow Jones ditutup di level 15,755.36 naik tipis 15.93 point atau + 0.10 % #kopipagi
2) Dow Jones stagnan jelang masa liburan & sepinya berita ekonomi yg mampu menggerakkan pasar #kopipagi
3) IHSG 13 Des ditutup di 4174, turun 37,39 poin atau 0.9% , potensi uji suport terdekat 4150. Suport menengah 4000. #kopipagi
4) KAEF speculative 520-560. COWL breakout lagi dari area 460. Waspda, speculative. #kopipagi
5) TBIG range trading 5600-6000. TRAM buy hanya jika breakout 1600. ULTJ range trading 4000-4300. #kopipagi
6) Semua saham di atas masih cenderung speculative, belum ada signal beli yang kuat. Sebaiknya wait and see dulu #kopipagi
7) Jelang liburan pasar cenderung stagnan, IHSG berpotensi untuk turun uji suport berikutnya di 4150 dan 4000 #kopipagi
8) Limited seat & early bird price, belajar investasi saham di #SmartTraderRichInvestor ketik nama#hp#kota ke seminar.ellen@gmail.com
9) Demikian #kopipagi 16 Desember 2013, semoga bermanfaat.
Salam profit,
Ellen May.
IPOT TECH CORNER
IHSG (4.175)
Range: 4.150 – 4.225
---Indeks kembali turun dan melanjutkan fase downtrend dengan tutup dibawah MA5. Stochastic dan RSI negatif sementara MACD berimpitan.
IHSG diperkirakan akan melemah dengan
support di 4.150 seresist 4.225.
LPKR (900)
Rekomendasi: Spec BUY
---Harga masih dalam fase downtrend namun tertahan support di 850. Stochastic dan RSI berimpitan sementara MACD bertahan positif.
Spec BUY jika berhasil break 910 dengan
resist di 970. Stoploss jika break & close dibawah 850.
ADRO (1.160)
Rekomendasi: Spec SELL
---Meskipun volume tidak naik signifikan namun harga turun sehingga support EMA50 tembus.Jika tidak mampu naik di atas resist EMA50 di 1.170 maka sebaiknya jual dahulu.Resist berikutnya 1.210, sementara support terdekat 1.110.
AALI (23.800)
Rekomendasi: Spec SELL
---Harga memasuki fase minor downtrend setelah menembus support EMA5 di 24.150. Jika kembali turun di bawah 23.050 sebaiknya jual dahulu karena make lower low. Stochastic keluar dari overbought, MACD positif namun bearish cross-over.
Target koreksi di level 22.800, sementara
resist 24.150.
DISCLAIMER ON
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar