Kamis, 12 Des 2013

Thursday (12/12/2013) Early BIRD Fundamental Perspective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Securities)

DJIA membukukan KEJATUHAN terbesar selama sebulan ini dalam perdagangan Rabu setelah turun -129.6 poin (-0.81%) ditutup dilevel 15843.53 disertai kenaikan tajam The Vix sebesar +10.86% ditutup dilevel 15.42 serta diikuti volume perdagangan yang cukup besar sekitar 6.5 miliar saham berpindah tangan (jauh diatas rata-rata perdagangan tahun ini sebesar 6.04 miliar saham ) setelah tercapainya kesepakatan Bipartisan Budget mengakhiri 3 tahun ketidakstabilan fiskal & konfrontasi politik di Washington dimana puncaknya di bulan Oktober sempat terjadi Partial Shutdown pemerintahan selama 16 hari diartikan pelaku sebagai suatu sinyal The Fed berpeluang mempercepat penerapan tapering dalam pertemuan FOMC 17-18 Desember 2013.

Dengan sisa 11 hari perdagangan di tahun 2013 apakah kita masih bisa berharap akan terjadi "Santa Claus Rally", khususnya dalam perdagangan Kamis ini ES memperkirakan IHSG berpeluang kembali TURUN merujuk kejatuhan tajam DJIA sebesar -129.6 poin (-0.81%) serta EIDO:US yang turun tajam sebesar -2.89% ditengah kejatuhan harga komoditas seperti: oil -1.14% ditutup dilevel US$97.39 & gold -0.75% ditutup dilevel 1251.7 serta aksi menunggu pelaku pasar atas RDG-BI Kamis ini, apakah BI akan kembali menaikkan BI Rate sebesar 25 menjadi 7.75%.

DJIA -129.6 -0.81% 15843.53
S&P -20.4 -1.13%1782.22
NASDAQ -56.68 -1.4% 4003.81
VIX +1.51 +10.86% 15.42
OIL -1.12 -1.14% 97.39
GOLD -9.4 -0.75% 1251.7
NICKEL +99. +0.71%. 14,029
TIN. +194 +0.86%. 22,644
CPO -6 -0.23%. 2,639
EIDO. -0.67. -2.89% 22.48
TLK 34.39 (2,061)
IDR 11,985

Thursday IDX Range: 4,181 - 4,288

BUY: TLKM, PGAS, GGRM, BBRI, SMGR, PTBA, BBCA, WIKA, UNTR, PTPP, TINS, AALI, MAPI, ACES, WSKT (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)

"Have a Staggering Thursday & GBU All"


Thursday (12/12/2013) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Sec)

IDX Composite 4,181 - 4,288
Pola Evening Doji Star terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal.

Thursday Stocks Pick:
TLKM 2050-2200 (TP 2013F:2350) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas TLKM mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 2075

PGAS 4800-4950 (TP 2013F:6550) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 4850

GGRM 40600-42400 (TP 2013F:43300) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas GGRM mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 41300

BBRI 7150-7550 (TP 2013F:7800) Pola White Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 7300

SMGR 13000-13550 (TP 2013F:15050) Pola Evening Doji Star terbentuk atas SMGR mengindikasikan perlambatan aksi beli. BUY 13150

PTBA 11450-12100 (TP 2013F:14200) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas PTBA mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 11650

BBCA 9700-10000 (TP 2013F:10400) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas BBCA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 9800

WIKA 1620-1720 (TP 2013F:2200) Pola Bullish Harami terbentuk atas WIKA mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 1650

UNTR 19050-19750 (TP 2013F:21450) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas UNTR mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 19350

PTPP 1110-1190 (TP 2013F:1490) Pola White Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas PTPP mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 1130

TINS 1600-1700 (New TP 2013F:1780) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas TINS mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1650

MAPI 5400-5750 (TP 2013F:7400) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas MAPI mengindikasikan konsolidasi. BUY 5550

ACES 640-700 (TP 2013F:800) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas ACES mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 660

WSKT 430-490 (TP 2013F:730) Pola Short White Candle terbentuk atas WSKT mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 450 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)


CONSTRUCTION from CLSA(KZ): Hendy downgrades the sector cutting earnings amid slowdown of new contracts from govt which has seen ADHI & WSKT cutting 2013 new contracts for the second time, by another 19% & 25% respectively. WIKA & PTPP has been relatively shielded due to diversified business model and contribution of Kalibaru project respectively. He retains recommendation for all his coverage but reducing TP. WIKA (BUY TP 2090 from 2230), PTPP (OPF TP 1250 from 1270), WSKT (OPF TP 460 from 670) and ADHI (UPF TP 1540 from 1960)******


Good morning,

Stocks dropped sharply for a second session Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq seeing their biggest losses in nearly five weeks, as the provisional budget deal in Washington raised speculation that the Federal Reserve could pull back on its stimulus program soon.

Dow.........15843 -129.6 -0.81%
Nasdaq......4004 -56.7 -1.40%
S&P 500.....1782 -20.4 -1.13%

FTSE..........6508 -15.6 -0.24%
DAX...........9077 -37.3 -0.41%
CAC...........4087 -4.3 -0.10%

Nikkei......15515 -96.3 -0.62%
HSI..........23388 -406 -1.71%
Shanghai...2204 -33.3 -1.49%
Kospi.........1978 -15.5 -0.78%
ST Times...3061 -21 -0.68%
PSE...........5889 +2.3 +0.04%

Indo10Yr. 8.851% -0.023 -0.25%
US10Yr.....2.84% +0.05 +1.68%

VIX...........15.42 +1.51 +10.86%

USD Index79.88 -0.08 -0.10%
Como Indx.281.03+0.25+0.09%
DJUSCL......136.13 -4.10 -2.92%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)

IndoCDS.....210.18 -7.65 -3.51%
(5-yr INOCD5)

Oil..............97.39 -1.10 -1.12%
Gold.......1253.63 -9.05 -0.72%

IDR......11991 +71 +0.596%(blmbrg)
Kurs Tengah BI 12005 vs 11985
Euro.....1.3762 +0.0026 +0.19%

TLKM..34.39 +0.31+0.91% Rp2062
BumiPlc...190.25 -1.5 -0.78%
EIDO........23.48 -0.67 -2.89%

Timah......22530 +155 +0.69%
Nickel......14050 +190 +1.37%
Coal.........83.95 +0.60 +0.72%
CPO........2630RM -8 -0.30% $817
Corn.........439.25 +3.25 +0.75%
SoybeanOil.40.40 +0.29 +0.72%
Wheat........640.75+2.00 +0.31%
DOC(24Sep)6750

(DE/ls- 12-12-13)


12 Desember
-BI Rate

-RUPS PNIN, HERO, SPMA, POLY, TRUB, PTSN

-CUM DEV MICE 15 ?

-Awal perdagangan ALTO-r dan BBKP-r
-Akhir perdagangan PALM-r

-MSKY IJ – MNC Sky Vision will finish bond refinancing in 12 Dec 2013. MSKY will then get US$250m 3-years loan from Deutsche Bank and Standard Chartered with rate of 4.5% to refinance the bond.

- LISTING SAWIT SUMBERMAS SARANA (SSMS)
Jumlah Saham yang ditawarkan sebanyak 1.500.000.000 Lembar dengan Nilai Nominal Rp100,- dan Harga Penawaran Rp670,- per saham.
-PT BNP Paribas Securities Indonesia, PT Mandiri Sekuritas dan PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia selaku Penjamin Pelaksana Emisi Efek.


-Bukopin will issue 2.66b new shares (33% of outstanding shares), with ratio of 125,000(O): 41,657(n).
· Offering price is at IDR650-700 per share.
· Koperasi Pegawai Bulog Seluruh Indonesia - KOPELINDO (which currently owns 27.1% of Bukopin) will sell 200m of its rights to PT Bosowa Corporindo - BOSOWA (owner of 13.9% stakes in the bank). Assuming all shareholders exercise their rights, the ownership will shift to 25.2% for KOPELINDO and 15.9% for BOSOWA.
· Effective date for the secondary offering: 28 November 2013
· Trading period: 12-18 December 2013

-Pemerintah Indonesia dan pihak Jepang diberitakan media nasional telah menyepakati besaran nilai akuisisi Inalum yakni US$556,7 juta atau sekitar Rp5,56 triliun. Angka ini lebih rendah dari perhitungan awal pengalihan Inalum yakni US$558 juta.
Penandatanganan kesepakatan akhir ditargetkan dilakukan sebelum tanggal 12 Desember 2013


Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell the most in a month and Treasuries dropped on speculation the budget agreement will make the Federal Reserve more confident to reduce stimulus. Gasoline and oil slid while the yen and euro strengthened.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 1.1 percent to 1,782.22 by 4:30 p.m. in New York and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.5 percent. Ten-year Treasury yields increased for the first time in four days. Oil retreated 1.1 percent to $97.44 a barrel after reaching a six-week high yesterday and gasoline decreased 0.7 percent to $2.6632 a gallon. The yen strengthened 0.5 percent to 102.39 per dollar, rebounding from a six-month low, and the euro advanced versus most major peers.

American lawmakers announced a budget deal yesterday that would ease automatic spending cuts by about $63 billion over two years and reduce the deficit by $20 billion to $23 billion. The agreement comes after a report last week showed the jobless rate fell to a five-year low and more economists predicted Fed policy makers will start cutting the $85 billion-a-month in stimulatory bond purchases at their meeting next week.

“Markets are increasing their views that we are a week or so away from tapering because of improving economic data and clearing the hurdle for a budget deal,” Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial LLC in Boston, said in a phone interview. “This deal is great, it’s a positive, but also a negative because it could prompt the Fed to taper sooner.”


Mandiri Morning Notes - 12Des13

Analis teknikal kami memperkirakan, Indeks kembali akan menguji resistance falling wedges pattern di sekitar level 4,270 yang merupakan reversal pattern. Range indeks hari ini akan berada dalam support 4,244. Resistance 4,300. Indeks terlihat sudah menyelesaikan sub wave C dalam corrective wave 4.

JCI Pivot
R3 4,356
R2 4,310
R1 4,291
4,272
S1 4,244
S2 4,216
S3 4,170

Rekomendasi saham secara teknikal untuk hari ini:
Ticker Action Target
BBNI BOW 4,275
SMGR SpecBuy 14,000
SMRA BOW 960
GJTL SpecBuy 2,000
UNVR SpecBuy 29,000

Firm November cement sales
·November cement sales is up by 6.6% YoY to 5.6mn MT. In Nov, sales growth is seen across the provinces; Java, Sulawesi, Sumatera and Kalimantan. As of 11M13, Indonesia cement sales is up by 5.7% YoY, inline with ours and consensus. If strength continues, we expect no downside risk in FY13F NPAT estimates.
·11M13 cement sales up by 5.7% YoY. Indonesia cement sales in 11M13 are up by 5.7% YoY to 52.7mn MT. As of 11M13, Java and Kalimantan booked firm sales growth, up by 7% YoY and 8% YoY. Sumatera cement sales grew by 2% YoY for 11M13. Bulk cement sales is up much faster than bagged cement sales, at 16% YoY versus 4% YoY.
·SMGR booked the strongest growth. Due to extra capacity, SMGR booked cement sales growth of 9% YoY in Nov-13. Cement sales in INTP and SMCB was up by 4% YoY and 3 % YoY in Nov-13. However, due to lack of capacity in early part of the year, SMCB’s 11M13 cement sales declines by 2% YoY while INTP 11M13 cement sales s flat on YoY basis. SMGR’s 11M13 cement sales was up by 13% YoY.
·Recovery in SMBR. SMBR booked cement sales of 130k MT in Nov-13, up by 24% YoY. Cement sales in South Sumatera is up by 18% YoY and cement sales in Lampung is up by 20% YoY. The company also starts selling in Jambi and Bengkulu.


NEWS :

1.UPDATE ANTM
PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) menandatangani kontrak proyek konstruksi dan rekayasa (engineering procurement and construction/EPC) dengan Daesung Industrial Gases Co. Ltd. asal Korea dan PT Koin Konstruksi Indonesia untuk membangun Oxygen Plant No. 5 di Pomalaa, Sulawesi Tenggara. sebagai Bagian dari Proyek Perluasan Pabrik Feronikel (ANTM), Proyek dengan nilai US$11 juta atau sekitar Rp 132,05 miliar (Kurs US$ 1=Rp 12.005) itu ditargetkan akan selesai kontruksinya pada Agustus-September 2015.

http://www.idx.co.id/Portals/0/StaticData/NewsAndAnnouncement/ANNOUNCEMENTSTOCK/From_EREP/201312/35876072af_b091b6efe1.pdf

(SUMBER : IDX, METROTVNEWS, BISNIS IND, KONTAN)





2.Moody's: Asian steel and coal sectors outlooks are negative

http://m.idnfinancials.com/news/read/6783/moodys-asian-steel-and-coal-sectors-outlooks-are-negative





3.Nickel producer PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) expects renegotiation on contract of work agreements to conclude soon, as it can continue investing US$2 billion for developing a processing plant.

http://m.idnfinancials.com/news/read/6789/vale-expects-contract-renegotiation-to-conclude-soon


Berita KorporasiENRG akan kembali mencari pinjaman baru senilai US$151.95 juta atau sekitar Rp1.67 triliun untuk melunasi pinjaman (refinancing).ICON akhirnya mendapatkan persetujuan untuk melakukan penawaran umum terbatas I (PUT I) atau rights issue sebanyak Rp108.9 miliar yang akan digunakan untuk penyertaan modal ke Bhumi Lestari Makmur.DNET akan membuka 1.300 gerai dan 3 distribution center Indomaret pada tahun depan.AISA menargetkan perolehan dana minimal Rp500 miliar dari rencana IPO anak usahanya, Bumiraya Investindo (BI) pada kuartal II/2014.OKAS menargetkan pendapatan sebesar US$225 juta hingga US$230 juta tahun depan, naik 12.5% - 15% dibandingkan target tahun ini.ANTM memperluas pabrik feronikel Pomalaa di Sulawesi Tenggara dengan membangun Oxygen Plant No. 5 senilai US$11 juta.SMGR telah menjual 23.41 juta ton semen, naik 14.6% yoy hingga Nopember 2013.SIMP sedang membangun dua pabrik CPO di Sumatera Selatan dan Kalimantan Timur.LEAD menargetkan dapat memperoleh tender off shore senilai US$48 juta hingga US$64 juta dari nilai total tender yang diikuti sebesar US$160 juta pada tahun depan.Info lengkap baca UOBKH retail monitor


LOTS Trading Club™ | lots.co.id
Lautandhana Securindo | YJ
Global Market Statistics 12 Dec 2013

DJIA.........15843 -129. -0.81%
S&P 500....1782 -20.4 -1.13%
Nasdaq......4004 -56.7 -1.40%
FTSE..........6507 -15.6 -0.24%
CAC...........4087 -4.28 -0.10%
DAX...........9077 -37.3 -0.41%
Nikkei......15515 -96.2 -0.62%
HSI..........23338 -406. -1.71%
US10Yr.......2.85 +0.05 +1.78%
EUR........1.3787 +0.00 +0.19%
IDR..........11991 +71.0 +0.60%
EIDO.........22.48 -0.67 -2.89%
TLK...........34.39 +0.31 +0.91%
BUMI Plc...190.2 -1.50 -0.78%
CrudeOil...97.37 -1.14 -1.16%
Gold..........1252 +0.15 +0.01%
Tin...........22530 +155. +0.69%
Nickel......14050 +190. +1.37%
Coal.........83.95 +0.60 +0.72%
CPO......RM2630 -9.00 -0.34%
DOC..........6750 (24 Sep 2013)

Global Market Snapshot
=================
• U.S. stocks fell the most in a month and Treasuries dropped on speculation the budget agreement will make the Federal Reserve more confident to reduce stimulus.

• Reuters poll: U.S. growth is set to accelerate in 2014 as the headwinds from a tightening of fiscal policy fade, giving The Fed room to start tapering monetary stimulus.

• IEA: Global oil demand in 2014 will be higher than previously forecast, after consumption in the U.S. rebounded to its strongest level in 5-years.

• SBY will make the final decision in a furious debate over next month's scheduled ban on the mineral export, an issue that pits nationalist-minded lawmakers against officials desperate not to lose revenue.

• Indonesia's consumers can't stop buying, even after surging interest rates and a plunging rupiah, adding pressure on BI to keep policy tight over the next few months.

• IRTI: Tin output in Indonesia will recover by as much as 6% to 90,000 tonnes next year.

• Palm oil dropped for a 3rd day as export from Malaysia declined, boosting concern inventories will increase. Palm’s discount to soy oil was $72 a ton today, compared with $297 early this year, Bloomberg data show.
Deddy ♓•™:
SK Monorel Konsorsium BUMN Akhirnya Diteken

Pembangunan monorel yang akan dilaksanakan oleh konsorsium BUMN yang diketuai oleh PT Adhi Karya (Persero) dapat angin segar dalam mewujudkan realisasi pembangunannya. Pasalnya, Kementerian Perhubunga (Kemenhub) menyatakan telah menandatangani percepatan pembangunan monorel rute Bekasi-Cawang-Cibubur-Kuningan.

Menteri Perhubungan (Menhub) EE Mengindaan mengatakan penandatanganan surat percepatan tersebut telah dilakukan pada minggu lalu. Dirinya juga mengaku bahwa surat tersebut telah berada di Kementerian Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian.

"Kementerian Perhubungan sudah tanda tangani percepatan pembangunan monorel konsorsium BUMN, seminggu lalu," kata Mangindaan usai Paparan Kinerja 2013 Kementerian Perhubungan di Kantornya, Jakarta, Rabu (11/12/2013).

Dirinya berharap, dengan telah ditandatangani, pembangunan monorel dapat direalisasikan dengan cepat. "Surat sekarang sudah di menko. Diharapkan Perpres konsorsium BUMN itu dapat dipercepat," tutupnya.