Setelah DJIA selama 2 hari turun tajam sebesar -182 poin (-1.14%), kejatuhan kembali berlanjut dihari ke-3 dalam perdagangan Kamis dimana DJIA turun tajam 3 digit kembali sebesar -104.10 poin (-0.66%) ditutup dilevel 15739.43 disertai kenaikan The Vix sebesar +0.78% ditutup dilevel 15.54 merujuk kenaikan Retail Sales bulan November sebesar 0.7%, lebih tinggi dibandingkan 0.6% data Retail Sales dibulan Oktober, sehingga menambah daftar panjang sinyal bagi The Fed untuk memulai percepatan pemotongan Paket Stimulus.
Dengan sisa 10 hari perdagangan di tahun 2013, nampaknya perjalanan "Santa Claus" untuk melakukan Window Dressing semakin "tertatih-tatih" setelah DJIA kembali turun tajam dihari ke-3 sebesar -104.10 poin (-0.66%) ditengah kembali turunnya EIDO:US sebesar -0.71% sehingga ES memperkirakan IHSG berpeluang kembali TURUN dalam perdagangan jumat ditengah turunnya harga beberapa komoditas seperti: gold -2.47% ditutup dilevel 1226.1 serta Rupiah yang semakin "emoh" alias enggan untuk menguat terhadap US Dollar dan "duduk manis" diatas level 12,000 setelah Bank Indonesia menahan kenaikan BI Rate.
DJIA -104.10 -0.66% 15739.43
S&P -6.72 -0.38% 1775.5
NASDAQ -5.41 -0.14% 3998.4
VIX +0.12 +0.78% 15.54
OIL -0.02 -0.02% 97.42
GOLD -31.1 -2.47% 1226.1
NICKEL -21. -0.15%. 14,009
TIN. -18 -0.68%. 22,500
CPO -18 -0.68%. 2,613
EIDO. -0.16. -0.71% 22.32
TLK 34.51 (2,072)
IDR 12,010
Friday IDX Range: 4,164 - 4,260
BUY: AKRA, BWPT, PTPP, MAPI.
BOW: TLKM, PGAS, GGRM, BBRI, SMGR, PTBA, BBCA, WIKA, UNTR, TINS, AALI, ACES, WSKT (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
"Have a Fabolous Friday & GBU All"
Friday (13/12/2013) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Sec)
IDX Composite 4,164 - 4,260
Pola Black Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan berlanjutnya kejatuhan.
Friday Stocks Pick:
AKRA 4700-4925 (TP 2013F:4850) Pola Bullish Harami terbentuk atas AKRA mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 4800
BWPT 1300-1370 (TP 2013F:1270) Pola Piercing terbentuk atas BWPT mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 1330
PTPP 1110-1190 (TP 2013F:1490) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas PTPP mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1140
MAPI 5400-5650 (TP 2013F:7400) Pola Four Price Doji terbentuk atas MAPI mengindikasikan konsolidasi. BUY 5450
TLKM 2000-2150 (TP 2013F:2350) Pola Bearish Harami terbentuk atas TLKM mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 2025
PGAS 4675-4900 (TP 2013F:6550) Pola Black Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 4700
GGRM 39400-41000 (TP 2013F:43300) Pola Black Candle terbentuk atas GGRM mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 39900
BBRI 7000-7300 (TP 2013F:7800) Pola Black Marubozu terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 7050
SMGR 12750-13350 (TP 2013F:15050) Pola inverted Hammer terbentuk atas SMGR mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 12950
PTBA 11450-11800 (TP 2013F:14200) Pola Bearish Harami terbentuk atas PTBA mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 11500
BBCA 9500-9900 (TP 2013F:10400) Pola Bearish Harami terbentuk atas BBCA mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 9550
WIKA 1620-1690 (TP 2013F:2200) Pola Evening Doji Star terbentuk atas WIKA mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 1640
UNTR 18500-19500 (TP 2013F:21450) Pola Inverted Hammer terbentuk atas UNTR mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 18550
ACES 640-700 (TP 2013F:800) Pola Dragonfly Doji terbentuk atas ACES mengindikasikan konsolidasi. BOW 660
WSKT 440-470 (TP 2013F:730) Pola Bearish Harami terbentuk atas WSKT mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 445 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
We provided our view that the recent rise in the CPO price was driven by the weaker-than-expected production from Indonesian estates and that we expect prices to remain range-bound at RM2,400-2,800 per tonne in the medium term and average at RM2,700 per tonne in 2014.
What We Think
Most of the investors concurred with our view. We also sensed that investors, in general, have raised their holdings in plantation stocks as we head into next year due to the better CPO price prospects and potential upside should Indonesia successfully execute its biodiesel mandate. The investors are also aware of the challenges facing the biodiesel policy and potential cap to the CPO price upside in anticipation of higher oilseeds supplies in the coming year.
What You Should Do
Maintain Neutral on the sector, with preference for Singapore planters due to their more attractive valuations. We like First Resources, Wilmar and Astra Agro.
SECTOR COMPARISONS
AALI - Outperform - 24,600
SIMP - Neutral - 845
LSIP - Neutral - 1,970
SGRO - Underperform - 960
BWPT - Neutral - 900
------------------------------
but little mileage out of rate hikes so far
Nevertheless, we question whether the advantages of tighter monetary policy outweighs the impact on the economy, more so at a time when cyclical as well as policy headwinds (such as the ill-timed mining export ban) are dampening growth and employment. Pressure continued to pile on the rupiah last month (-3.0% mom), despite the BI’s unexpected rate hike on 12 Nov. As such, further rate hikes should be used sparingly, given the limited results seen in shoring up the currency and shrinking the current account deficit.
2.Plantations | PDF
Postcard from Taiwan marketing
NEUTRAL - Maintained
Author(s): Ivy NG, CFA +60 (3) 2084 9697,
We detected strong interests during our 1.5 days marketing the regional plantation sector to investors in Taiwan. Most are keen to find out what triggered the recent rise in CPO prices and the potential impact of Indonesia's biodiesel mandate on palm oil demand. However, following the recent share price outperformance by some planters, investors are also keen to take profit. We share our concern on the potential challenges in meeting Indonesia’s biodiesel targets and views on CPO prices. Our Neutral call on the sector is intact as we feel that most stocks have priced in the higher CPO prices. We prefer Singapore planters, which offer the best values at the current levels.
What Happened
We met around 28 fund managers and analysts during our recent 1.5 days of marketing trip to Taiwan to update investors on our regional plantation sector view. We detected strong interests and found that most of these investors have some holdings in the sector. Most are keen to know our outlook for CPO prices and some of the key issues facing the sector. Some investors drilled into the finer details of specific stocks and issues. The stocks discussed during our meetings include First Resources, Golden Agri, Astra Agro, Wilmar, IOI, Ta Ann and Bumitama Agri.
RISET CIMB 13 DESEMBER 2013 :
1.Economic Update | PDF
Dec MPC – girding for uncertainty
Author(s): Michelle CHIA +60 (3) 2084 9617,
The BI rate was left at 7.50% at the final interest-rate meeting of the year, in line with expectations. The decision comes after last month’s surprise 25bp hike failed to halt the rupiah’s decline (-3% mom in Nov). Though there is a possibility of more hikes in 1H14 as the QE taper draws closer, we sit on the side of the fence that sees limited benefits accruing from more interest-rate increases, especially in the face of heightened risks to GDP and job growth. We maintain our end-2014 forecast at 7.00%.
BI rate unchanged at 7.50%
Bank Indonesia (BI) kept the BI rate at 7.50%, having raised it by 25bp last month. Over the course of 2013, the BI rate was raised by 175bp. The FASBI rate and lending facility rate were both left at 5.75% and 7.50%, respectively. The decision was in line with our forecast, and the majority of forecasters. Encouraging trade and inflation data released at the start of the month likely played a part in swaying BI’s decision to stay put.
Finger on the trigger…
We keep our end-2014 BI rate forecast at 7.00%, as narrower external imbalances and lower inflation should open up room to lower the policy rate. However, further rate hikes in 1H14 cannot be completely ruled out, given the persistent downward pressure on the rupiah (that has depreciated by 18.8% YTD) and lingering risks of capital outflows.
Good morning,
U.S. stocks finished lower on Thursday, extending losses into a third session, as investors considered the timing of any reductions in the Federal Reserve's monetary stimulus.
Dow.........15739 -104.1-0.66%
Nasdaq......3998 -5.4 -0.14%
S&P 500.....1776 -6.7 -0.38%
FTSE..........6445 -62.5 -0.96%
DAX...........9017 -60.1 -0.66%
CAC...........4069 -17.7 -0.43%
Nikkei......15342 -173.2 -1.12%
HSI..........23218 -120.1 -0.51%
Shanghai...2203 -1.4 -0.06%
Kospi.........1968 -0.04 -0.51%
ST Times...3059 -1.70 -0.06%
PSE...........5763 -126.2 -2.14%
Indo10Yr. 8.778% -0.073 -0.82%
US10Yr.....2.88% +0.03 +1.16%
VIX...........15.54 +0.12 +0.74%
USD Index80.18 +0.31 +0.38%
Como Indx.280.16 -0.86 -0.31%
DJUSCL......134.64 -1.49 -1.09%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)
IndoCDS.....216.10+5.92 +2.82%
(5-yr INOCD5)
Oil..............97.36 -0.03 -0.03%
Gold.......1227.01 -26.62-2.12%
IDR......12023 +32 +0.27%(blmbrg)
Kurs Tengah BI 12025 vs 12005
Euro.....1.3754 -0.0034 -0.25%
TLKM..34.51 +0.12+0.35% Rp2075
BumiPlc...191.25 +1.00 +0.53%
EIDO........22.32 -0.16 -0.71%
Timah......22490 -40 -0.18%
Nickel......13960 -90 -0.64%
Coal.........83.95 +0.60 +0.72%
CPO........2612RM -18 -0.68%$808
Corn.........434.25 -51.00 -1.14%
SoybeanOil.40.37 -0.42 -1.03%
Wheat........633.75-7.00 -1.09%
DOC(24Sep)6750
(DE/ls- 13-12-13)
Panin Sekuritas Research 13Des13-
Bursa Amerika ditutup melemah melanjutkan aksi jual yang sudah terjadi dua hari sebelumnya. Data penjualan ritel yang lebih bagus dari perkiraan kembali membuat pasar semakin khawatir tapering akan dilakukan pada pekan depan.
Semakin banyak ekonom yang memprediksi Fed akan mengurangi stimulusnya pada pekan depan. Prediksi ini didorong oleh data-data ekonomi yang rilis menunjukan Amerika dalam tren pertumbuhan tercepat dalam empat tahun terakhir.
Data klaim pengangguran pekan lalu sebanyak 368.000 orang, naik dari pekan sebelumnya yang sebanyak 300.000 orang.
Rupiah pagi sudah mencapai level Rp12.087 mendekati level tertinggi dalam lima tahun terakhir pada Maret 2009 Rp12.100. IHSG hari ini diperkirakan tertekan dengan sentimen tapering yang semakin kuat dan rupiah yang terus melemah.
Trading BOW : TLKM, JSMR, KLBF, UNVR, CPIN, PGAS, ANTM, ADRO, BWPT, SIMP.
Spec Buy : BUMI, ENRG, BRMS.
©Panin Sekuritas
13122013 (1)
TECH_CORNER
IHSG (4.212)
Range: 4.202 – 4.315
---Indeks kembali turun dan tutup dibawah MA5 dengan volume. Stochastic deathcross sementara MACD dan RSI flat.
IHSG diperkirakan akan melemah dengan support di 4.202 sementara resist 4.315.
PTPP (1.150)
Rekomendasi: Spec BUY
---Harga bertahan pada support 1.110-1.120 dan MA(5,20,50,100) berdekatan. Stochastic goldencross sementara RSI dan MACD berimpitan.
Relatif aman untuk entry selama berada diatas support 1.110 dengan resist di 1.200. Stoploss jika break & close dibawah 1.100.
AKRA (4.825)
Rekomendasi: Sell On Strength
---Meskipun harga berhasil break resist EMA50 di 4.700 namun mendekati strong resist trend line di
4.975 dan upper band.
Volume juga meningkat sementara stochastic netral. Target harga untuk profit taiking di level 4.975-5.000.
BWPT (1.340)
Rekomendasi: Sell On Strength
---Meskipun harga naik namun belum berhasil break resist EMA5 di 1.350. Jika bertahan di atas 1.350 maka kembali bullish dengan target short term pada level 1.390 kemudian 1.430 sekaligus target profit taking.
Support terdekat 1.310, sell jika closed di bawah 1.270.
(Disclaimer on)
Deddy ♓•™:
MCI Update (13 Des 2013):
7:32AM:
DJ(-0.66% );
NK(+0.31% );
IDR 12010;
Gold 1226.64;
CPO 2580(-0.7% );
EUR 1.3746;
JPY 103.55
Pg ini bursa reg mixed.IHSG Fluktuatif, Cenderung Melemah
7:34AM:
Nikel 13954(-0.1% );
Timah 22479(-0.7% );
Coal Newc $83.4(+0.7% );
Coal Rotter $84(+0.7% );
Oil 97.37;
TLK 2075;
Silver 19.46
∙ SSMS Targetkan Pertumbuhan 10%-15%
∙ APLN Bukukan Marketing Sales Rp 4,4 Triliun
∙ BUMI Terhindar Dari Potensi Gagal Bayar
∙ POLY Proyeksikan Pendapatan USD 580 Juta
∙ GPRA Anggarkan Belanja Modal Rp 440 Miliar
∙ ICON Targetkan Pendapatan Tumbuh di Atas 100%
∙ RDTX Buyback Saham
Trading Ideas (disclaimer):
BoW: BBRI,TP 7300/7350,SL 6900; ERAA,TP 1070,SL 970
SpecBuy: BEST,TP 420,SL 360
SoS: INCO,BF 2525,BB 2775; AALI,BF 23000,BB 24300
©Mega Capital Indonesia
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