Tuesday (29/10/2013)

Tuesday (29/10/2013) Early BIRD Fundamental Perspective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Securities)

Keengganan investor di Wall Street utk mengambil posisi menyusul akan banyaknya LK Q3/2013 emiten yang akan direleased minggu ini & adanya FOMC Meeting selama 2 hari menjadi penyebab DJIA ditutup nyaris flat sebesar -1.35 poin (-0.01%) ditutup dilevel 15568.93 disertai penguatan The Vix +1.68% ditutup dilevel 13.31 ditengah penguatan data Industrial Production bln September sebesar +0.6% (kenaikan terbesar selama 6 bulan terakhir), lebih tinggi dari konsensus ekonom sebesar 0.4% sementara data Pending Home Sales bln September turun -5.6% menjadi 101.6 (turun 4 bulan berturut-turut) dibandingkan dengan konsensus ekonom yang mengharapkan adanya kenaikan tipis.

Sekitar 249 dari 500 emiten dalam Indeks S&P 500 yang telah merelease earnings LK Q3/2013, 69.1% diantaranya mengalahkan estimasi earnings awal analis (lebih tinggi dibandingkan rata-rata 63% sejak tahun 1994), dimana saat ini analis memperkirakan earnings tumbuh rata-rata 4.2% (dengan asumsi sisanya setara kejadian diatas), tetapi masih dibawah ekspektasi 1 Juli 2013 sebesar 8.5%. Sedangkan untuk revenue, 53.9% diantaranya mengalahkan estimasi revenue awal analis (lebih rendah dibandingkan rata-rata 61% sejak tahun 2002)

Merujuk DJIA yang ditutup flat -0.01% & EIDO:US yang ditutup turun -0.29%, ES memperkirakan IHSG akan bergerak tidak jauh berbeda seperti perdagangan Senin, kurang bergairah & dalam kisaran sempit.

DJIA -1.35 -0.01% 15568.93
S&P +2.34 +0.13% 1762.11
NASDAQ -3.23 -0.08% 3940.13
VIX +0.22 +1.68% 13.31
OIL +0.69 +0.71% 98.54
GOLD +0.4 +0.03% 1352.9
NICKEL +10 +0.07% 14,590
TIN -24 -0.01% 23,176
CPO +19 +0.78%  2,463
EIDO -0.08 -0.29% 27.29
TLK 40.50 (2,237)
IDR 11,048

Tuesday IDX Range: 4,572 - 4,630

BUY: PGAS, TLKM, ADHI, GGRM, INDF, PTPP, BBNI, WSKT, SMRA, AKRA, CTRA, CPIN, ITMG, TOTL (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)

"Have a Marvelous Tuesday & GBU All"
Tuesday (29/10/2013) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Sec)

IDX Composite 4,572 - 4,630
Pola Four Price Doji terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan masa konsolidasi.

Tuesday Stocks Pick:
PGAS 4900-5300 (TP 2013F:6550) Pola Bullish Harami terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 5000

TLKM 2175-2375 (TP 2013F:2350) Pola White Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas TLKM mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 2225

ADHI 2050-2225 (TP 2013F:2450) Pola White Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas ADHI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 2175

GGRM 37500-39000 (TP 2013F:43300) Pola White Candle terbentuk atas GGRM mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 38000

INDF 7300-7600 (TP 2013F:8100) Pola White Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas INDF mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 7400

PTPP 1340-1480 (TP 2013F:1490) Pola Four White Soldiers terbentuk atas PTPP mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1370

BBNI 4750-4925 (TP 2013F:5000) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas BBNI mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 4800

WSKT 610-680 (TP 2013F:730) Pola White Candle terbentuk atas WSKT mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 630

SMRA 1080-1180 (TP 2013F:1250) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas SMRA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1110

AKRA 4825-5450 (TP 2013F:4850) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas AKRA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 5200

CTRA 1040-1120 (TP 2013F:1200) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas CTRA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1060

CPIN 3825-4000 (TP 2013F:4250) Pola Bullish Harami Cross terbentuk atas CPIN mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 3875

ITMG 31200-32450 (TP 2013F:35000) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas ITMG mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 31600

TOTL 790-870 (TP 2013F:1060) Pola White Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas TOTL mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 820 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Good morning,

Stocks finished narrowly mixed in lackluster trading Monday, as investors hesitated to jump in following a batch of mixed earnings reports and ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy-setting meeting.

Dow.........15569  -1.4    -0.01%
Nasdaq......3940  -3.2    -0.08%
S&P 500.....1762 +2.3   +0.13%

FTSE..........6726 +4.5   +0.07%
DAX...........8979  -7.1    -0.08%
CAC...........4252  -20.7  -0.48%

Nikkei......14936 +307.4 +2.19%
HSI..........22807  +108.2+0.48%
Shanghai...2134  +0.9    +0.04%
Kospi.........2048  +13.8  +0.68%
ST Times....3208  +2.6   +0.08%
PSE............6540   -44     -0.67%

Indo10Yr. 7.012% -0.144 -2.00%
US10Yr.....2.51% +0.01  +0.36%

VIX...........13.31  +0.22  +1.68%

USD Index79.33  +0.138 +0.17%
Como Indx.281.9 -0.69     -0.24%
DJUSCL......139.88-0.17    -0.12%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)

IndoCDS.....192.5 +7.50  +4.05%
(5-yr INOCD5)

Oil.........98.52     +0.67   +0.68%
Gold....1352.84   +2.22   +0.16%

IDR......11055 +40 +0.36%(blmbrg)
Kurs Tengah BI  11018 vs 11142
Euro.....1.3787  -0.0015    -0.11%

TLKM....40.50 +1.13+2.87%Rp2239
BumiPlc...198.00+1.00   +0.51%
EIDO........27.29   -0.08    -0.29%

Timah......23180 +105    +0.46%
Nickel......14500 +15      +0.10%
Coal.........79.35  +0.70 +0.89%
CPO..........2460 +16 +0.65% $784
Corn.........430.75  -9.25   -2.10%
SoybeanOil.40.36  -0.37   -0.91%
Wheat......681.00  -9.75   -1.41%
DOC(24Sep)6750

(DE/ls- 29-10-13)

**************

THIS WEEK :

29 Oktober
• Lelang SBN
• Cum Dev ITMG Rp 1,014
• BANK OCBC NISP RUPSLB,

30 Oktober
• FOMC
• RUPSLB AIMS

31 Oktober
• Antam 100 persen siap untuk takeover operasional Inalum.   Sebagaimana diketahui, berdasarkan perjanjian RI-Jepang pada 7 Juli 1975, kontrak kerja sama pengelolaan PT Inalum akan berakhir pada 31 Oktober 2013.
• RUPSLB INRU, Chandra Asri Petrochemical
RISET CIMB 29 OKTOBER 2013

1.Adhi Karya   | PDF
Stock at a bargain
ADHI IJ / ADHI.JK | OUTPERFORM - Upgrade | Rp2,125.00 - TP: Rp2,600.00
Mkt.Cap: US$346.30m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$6.08m | Free Float: 46.00%
Construction | Author(s): Lydia TOISUTA +62 2130061724, Linda LAUWIRA

One-time gains and lower provisioning for bad debt nudged the 9M results ahead of expectations. We expect costs to normalise in 4Q as revenue recognition accelerates towards the end of the year. 9M13 core net earnings formed 49% of our full-year estimates and 38% of market’s, slightly ahead of estimates given historical seasonality. We raise FY13 EPS by 3% to factor in the better-than-expected topline. We roll forward our target price to CY15 and raise it to Rp2,600. It continues to be based on 10.12x P/E (25% discount to contractors’ mid-cycle P/E of 13.5x). We upgrade our rating to Outperform.

Still growing
Revenue grew 59% yoy, making up 61% of our estimate and 53% of consensus’s FY13 numbers (vs. the three-year average of 49%). Topline grew faster than expected from the pick-up in recognition rate for its EPC projects. Gross margin contracted by 40bp qoq and 1.2% pts yoy as expected. This is due to cost overruns suffered by its EPC business in 3Q. Opex-to-sales continued to decline by 10bp to 3.2% in 3Q13, propping up operating margin to 7.3% (vs. 1H13: 7.3%). Core earnings grew by 78% yoy to Rp142.3bn, forming 49% of our FY13 estimates. We deem this largely in line as we expect bad debt impairment expense to pick up in 4Q. The 9M13 impairment expense only made up 9.6% of our FY13 estimates.

Cash management
YTD, new contracts worth a total of Rp6.4tr were signed – the lowest among state-owned peers. The debt-to-equity ratio declined to 1.3x (1H13: 1.4x), still far below its 2.75x debt covenant. Capex reached Rp208bn or 30% of its revised FY13 target of Rp700bn, which in turn raised its interest income ahead of our estimates.