Rabu, 4 Sept 2013, Jual2 deh

Wednesday (04/09/2013) Early BIRD Fundamental Perspective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Securities)

Setelah DJIA diawal perdagangan sempat naik +120 poin didorong news M&A mendektatinya kesepakatan Vodavone menjual 45% ke Verizon Communication senilai US$130 miliar & Microsoft akan membeli bisnis handset Nokia senilai US$7.2 miliar serta naiknya data Manufacturing Sector bln Agustus kelevel 55.7, pertumbuhan tercepat selama 2 thn kemudian Construction Spending tumbuh 0.6% (lebih tinggi dari konsensus 0.3%) mjd US$901 miliar ttp setelah Jurbir House of Rep John Boehner & Jubir Partai Demokrat di House mengatakan mrk mendukung rencana Pres Obama mengambil tindakan militer atas Syria ditengah konfirmasi Menhan Israel bahwa Angkatan Bersenjata mrk beserta US Missile Defense Agency sdh meluncurkan rudal sbg uji coba sebelum menghadapi perang mjd faktor tjdnya profit taking shg DJIA diitutup hanya naik +23.65 poin (+0.16%) dilevel 14833.96 diiringi kejatuhan The Vix -2.35% ditutup dilevel 16.61.

Setelah IHSG Selasa naik +62.78 poin (+1.53%) ttp kenaikan tsb justru DIMANFAATKAN investor asing untuk terus melakukan Net Sell Rp -136 miliar shg YTD mencapai Rp -13.66 triliun, maka Rabu ini IHSG berpotensi berbalik arah "melemah" merujuk TAJAMNYA KEJATUHAN Indonesia ETF (EIDO:US) sebesar -3.13% & USD/IDR berlanjut melemah kelevel Rp 11,425 (mendekati proyeksi ES dilevel Rp 11,500).

Mendekati 17-18 Sept, lebih bijak jika investor menerapkan strategi Short Term Trading atau bahkan Day Trade utk mengantisipasi gejolak market yg sgt volatile spt saat ini.

DJIA +23.65 +0.16% 14833.96
S&P +6.8 +0.42% 1639.77
NASDAQ +22.74 +0.63% 3612.61
OIL +0.83 +0.77% 108.48
GOLD +16.4 +1.17% 1412.5
NICKEL -10 -0.07% 13,770
TIN +350 +1.65%  21,500
CPO +43 +1.81% 2,420
EIDO-US: -0.72. -3.13%. 22.30
TLK 37.02 (2,115)
IDR 11,425

Wednesday IDX Range: 4,086 - 4,211

BUY: PTBA, PGAS, SIMP, SMGR, LSIP, BWPT, MEDC, UNTR, BBRI, AALI, INCO, KLBF, BMRI, MAPI (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)

Wednesday (04/09/2013) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang. CSA®-MNC Sec)

IDX Composite 4,086 - 4,211
Pola Bullish Harami terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal.

Wednesday Stocks Pick:
PTBA 12950-14400 (TP 2013F:14900) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas PTBA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 13500

PGAS 5200-5700 (TP 2013F:6700) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 5400

SIMP 750-840 (TP 2013F:800) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas SIMP mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 770

SMGR 12300-12850 (TP 2013F:21500) Pola Bullish Harami terbentuk atas SMGR mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 12400

LSIP 1550-1680 (New TP 2013F:1700) Pola Four White Soldiers terbentuk atas LSIP mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1600

BWPT 950-1050 (TP 2013F:1100) Pola Four White Soldiers terbentuk atas BWPT mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 980

MEDC 2450-2650 (TP 2013F:2475) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas MEDC mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 2500

UNTR 16050-17000 (TP 2013F:19000) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas UNTR mengindikasikan munculnya aksi beli. BUY 16400

BBRI 6400-6800 (TP 2013F:10200) Pola Bullish Harami terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 6500

AALI 20300-21100 (TP 2013F:19800) Pola Four White Soldiers terbentuk atas AALI mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 20600

INCO 2300-2475 (TP 2013F:2300) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas INCO mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 2375

KLBF 1290-1360 (TP 2013F:1720) Pola Bullish Harami Cross terbentuk atas KLBF mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 1310

BMRI 6800-7400 (TP 2013F:10650) Pola Bulllish Harami terbentuk atas BMRI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 6900

MAPI 4850-5300 (TP 2013F:8000) Pola White Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas MAPI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 4950 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Good morning,

Stocks closed out a choppy session in the black on the first trading day of September, thanks to a handful of upbeat economic reports, but ongoing worries over Syria kept a lid on gains.

Dow.........14834  +23.7 +0.16%
Nasdaq......3613  +22.7 +0.63%
S&P 500.....1640  +6.8   +0.42%
FTSE..........6468   -37.8   -0.58%
DAX...........8181   -63.2   -0.77%
CAC...........3974   -31.9   -0.80%
Nikkei......13978  +405.5+2.99%
HSI..........22395  +219   +0.99%
PSE..........6084    +22.1  +0.36%
Indo10Yr. 8.5265%+1.41 +0.12%
US10Yr.....2.85%  +0.10 +3.60%
VIX..........16.61     -0.40   -2.35%
USD Index82.38  +0.291 +0.35%
Como Indx.292.8 +1.63  +0.56%
IndoCDS....296.6 +5.45  +1.87%
(5-yr INOCD5)
Oil..........108.42  +0.77  +0.72%
Gold......1412.30 +19.96 +1.43%
IDR.......11445 +74 +0.65%(blmbrg)
Euro.....1.3165 -0.00005 -0.04%
TLKM....37.06. +0 +0% Rp2121
BumiPlc...208.70  -6.30 -2.93%
EIDO........22.30   -0.72  -3.13%
Timah......21405  +355 +1.69%
Nickel......13650   -15    -0.11%
Coal.........77.65  +0.40 +0.52%
CPO.......2419RM -7 -0.29%$736
Corn.........475.25 -6.75 -1.40%
SoybeanOil.44.19 -0.10 -0.23%
Wheat......647.25 -6.75  -1.03%
DOC(30 Agt) 4000 +0     +0%

(DE/ls- 04-09-13)


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THIS WEEK :


04 September
-RUPSLB : INDS

-MBA Mortgage Index, Trade Balance, Auto Sales, Truck Sales, Fed's Beige Book


05 September
-RUPSLB/T :  INOVISI INFRACOM,

-Challenger Job Cuts, ADP Employment Change, Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Productivity-Rev., Unit Labor Costs, Factory Orders, ISM Services, Natural Gas Inventories, Crude Inventories,




06 September
-Cum Dev Media Nusantara Citra Tb  55

-Nonfarm PayrollsAug, Nonfarm Private Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Hourly Earnings, Average Workweek


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RISET CIMB 04 SEPTEMBER 2013 :


1.Plantations   | Pricing in the windfalls
NEUTRAL - Maintained
Author(s): Erindra KRISNAWAN, CFA +62 2130061732, Laura TASLIM

The current CPO price expectations appear to reflect the potential impact of Indonesia’s recent biodiesel content policy. Any further rupiah weakening should support the earnings, but this is also largely priced in the current valuations. We lift our FY13-15 earnings for most Indonesian planters under our coverage, mainly to reflect our latest Rp/US$1 assumption. We keep the sector at Neutral as the upside from the currency windfalls is largely priced in. We up the target prices to account for the earnings lift. Our top pick is AALI; we upgrade the stock to Trading Buy from Neutral. We downgrade SGRO to Underperform from Neutral since recent rerating is unjustified.

Biodiesel and currency windfalls
Our regional plantation analyst expects that the Indonesian government’s plan to raise the mandatory biodiesel content to 10% will support the CPO price. Thus, we maintain our CPO price forecasts of US$910/t and US$950/t for 2013 and 2014 respectively. However, the implementation of the new policy may face challenges. On the currency side, we estimate that every 1% depreciation from our base case of Rp10,700/US$ can result in a 3.0-3.5% EPS expansion.

Possible headwinds
The recent operating numbers indicated a lower-than-expected production, with LSIP and SGRO’s 1H13 CPO production accounting for only 33-42% of our full-year forecasts. AALI’s own FFB harvest growth has been negative over the past three  months. The planters attributed the shortfall to weather-related factors, but the emergence of social issues (in South Sumatra) imply more serious headwinds. We cut our production forecasts for select planters.

Limited upside, floor intact
Using the average historical P/Es, we estimate that the current share prices imply an assumption of Rp10,000-22,000/US$1. Although the current stock P/Es are at a discount to their historical averages, we think this fairly reflects the slowing growth. Nonetheless, the P/BV and average EV/hectare of US$8,400/ ha offer a floor to the valuations. 




2.Equity Strategy   | CIMBulletin: #4
Long Term ASIA: OVERWEIGHT
Author(s): Jason TODD, CFA +852 2532 1123, Chiou Yi CHANG

Asia equities have not yet emerged out from under the headwinds of capital flight, currency weakness and deteriorating growth. However, from this point on, such headwinds are likely to drive a greater wedge between country performance rather than broad-based regional weakness. Policy makers have finally woken up to the severity of the currency situation and are responding. Even if it is too little too late, policy action has reintroduced some two-way volatility. We wait for evidence of currency stability before positioning for a reversal in underperforming markets (India & Indonesia). We prefer those with improving fundamentals (China) or leveraged to a global recovery (Korea, Taiwan & Singapore). Malaysia has a solid outlook but is likely to lag if markets rally and lose its immunity premium if markets fall. We therefore make a non-consensus call and cut to underweight.

Policy = circuit breaker
Domestic policy makers will now determine how (dis)orderly further weakness in financial markets will become. The action to date has reintroduced some two-way volatility but at the expense of future growth which is not yet accounted for.