Kamis, 5 Sept 2013, habis turun ya naik lah

Thursday (05/09/2013) Early BIRD Fundamental Perspective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Securities)

DJIA kembali melanjutkan kenaikan dihari ke-2 dengan menguat sebesar +96.91 poin  (+0.65%) ditutup dilevel 14930.87 diiringi kejatuhan The Vix sebesar -4.39% ditutup dilevel 15.88 didorong kuatnya data penjualan mobil, menggembirakannya isi laporan Beige Book yang menyatakan ekonomi AS tumbuh pada kecepatan "modest to moderate" dalam kurun waktu awal Juli hingga akhir Agustus & menyarankan The Fed dapat mulai mengurangi Program Bond Buying serta dukungan Konggres untuk melakukan serangan militer ke Syria secara terbatas ditengah data Defisit Perdagangan AS yang semakin melebar sebesar 13.3% menjadi US$39.1 miliar di bulan Juli (lebih tinggi dibandingkan konsensus ekonom yang memperkirakan defisit perdagangan AS sebesar US$38.7 miliar).

Setelah turun cukup besar dalam perdagangan Rabu, ES memperkirakan ada peluang IHSG "Rebound" dalam perdagangan Kamis didorong faktor penguatan moderate Dow Jones sebesar +0.65% & EIDO-US sebesar +0.67% sambil tentunya kita tetap harus memperhatikan kemana arah pergerakan USD/IDR sepanjang perdagangan Kamis.

DJIA +96.91 +0.65% 14930.87
S&P +13.31 +0.81% 1653.08
NASDAQ +36.43 +1.01% 3649.04
VIX -0.73 -4.39% 15.88
OIL -1.31 -1.21%107.23
GOLD -22 -1.56% 1390
NICKEL -100 -0.73% 13,670
TIN +335 +1.56%  21,835
CPO -21 -0.87% 2,399
EIDO-US: +0.15. +0.67%. 22.45
TLK 35.93 (2,050)
IDR 11,405

Thursday IDX Range: 4,047 - 4,122

BUY: HRUM, WIKA, BBRI, INDY, MEDC, PTBA

BOW: AALI, BWPT, UNTR, ANTM, MYOR, LSIP, TOTL, INCO (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)

"Have A Stunning Thursday & GBU All"

Thursday (05/09/2013) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang. CSA®-MNC Sec)

IDX Composite 4,047 - 4,122
Pola Black Marubozu terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal dalam perdagangan Kamis.

Thursday Stocks Pick:
HRUM 3350-3550 (TP 2013F:3350) Pola Short White Caandle terbentuk atas HRUM mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 3425

WIKA 1710-1820 (New TP 2013F:2200) Pola Short White Candle terbentuk atas WIKA mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 1740

BBRI 6500-6850 (TP 2013F:10200) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 6600

INDY 650-780 (TP 2013F:910) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas INDY mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 690

MEDC 2550-2700 (TP 2013F:2475) Pola Four White Soldiers terbentuk atas MEDC mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 2650

PTBA 13150-13900 (TP 2013F:14900) Pola Spinning Tops terbentuk atas PTBA mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 13550

AALI 20250-21000 (TP 2013F:19800) Pola Evening Doji Star terbentuk atas AALI mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BOW 20500.

BWPT 910-1050 (TP 2013F:1100) Pola Bearish Harami terbentuk atas BWPT mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 950

UNTR 15350-16300 (TP 2013F:19000) Pola Black Candle terbentuk atas UNTR mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 15650

ANTM 1290-1400 (TP 2013F:1530) Pola Bearish Engulfing terbentuk atas ANTM mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 1310

MYOR 29000-29900 (TP 2013F:36500) Pola Inverted Hammer terbentuk atas MYOR mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BOW 29300

LSIP 1510-1640 (TP 2013F:1500) Pola Bearish Harami terbentuk atas LSIP mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 1550

TOTL 620-720 (TP 2013F:1440) Pola Three Black Crows terbentuk atas TOTL mengindikasikan Bearish Continuation. BOW 650

INCO 2225-2400 (TP 2013F:2300) Pola Black Candle terbentuk atas INCO mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 2300 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)

RISET CIMB 05 SEPTEMBER 2013

1.Strategy   | A brief history of bear markets
NEUTRAL - Maintained
Author(s): Erwan TEGUH +62 (21) 30061720, Peter P. SUTEDJA, CFA

The JCI is now a bear market by definition. Is it a big (secular) or small (cyclical) bear? For now, it looks more cyclical than structural, providing that currency volatility does not morph into a debt crisis. Recoveries from past bears were more ‘U’ than ‘V’ shaped. Macro improvement and earnings reversal are turnaround catalysts. Maintaining Neutral but reverting to top-down and assuming 16% COE vs. 14.5% previously, further factoring in 2-3% pts FY13-14 earnings downside, the new YE13 index target is 4,500, implying 2.6x P/BV and 13.3x P/E. Defensive (TLKM), deep value (CTRA) and good company at reasonable valuation (AALI) are our picks.

The past bears
The modern Indonesia stock market started in 1987, following deregulation that allowed for easier listings and foreign ownership. The JCI shot up and peaked in 1990, then descended into its 1st secular bear, which lasted for 98 months and cumulated in the Asian debt crisis in 1997/98. In between, there were cyclical bears and bulls. On average, Indonesian bear markets lasted 24 months (excl. secular), with a peak-to-bottom fall averaging 31%, hit in 9 months. The two bears of the past decade lasted 37 months (GFC) and 12 months (the eurozone crisis). The current bear began in May 13, having fell by some 22% from its peak at one point, sparked by QE tapering talk, which led to sharp currency depreciation and interest rates spikes, consequently constricting growth. The peak-to-bottom declines of the past bears averaged 27%, but could more than double in a systemic risk situation.

Turning points
A decelerating GDP and a drop below 5% seem to signify a change in the secular trend. So does a spike in inflation but not necessarily that driven by cuts in fuel subsidies. Valuations are a less convincing indicator.

Good morning,

Stocks closed higher for a second session Wednesday, with the Dow logging its biggest gain in over a month, following the Fed's upbeat Beige Book report and as the White House pressed its case for military action in Syria.

Dow.........14931  +96.9 +0.65%
Nasdaq......3694  +36.4 +1.01%
S&P 500.....1653  +13.3 +0.81%
FTSE..........6475  +6.3   +0.10%
DAX...........8196  +15.2 +0.19%
CAC...........3980  +6.4   +0.16%
Nikkei......14054  +75.4 +0.54%
HSI..........22326   -68.4   -0.31%
PSE..........5968    -115.6  -1.90%
Indo10Yr. 8.6267%+1.18+0.10%
US10Yr.....2.897% +0.05+1.65%
VIX..........15.88     -0.73  -4.39%
USD Index82.17    -0.211-0.24%
Como Indx.290.6   -2.21  -0.75%
IndoCDS....299.8 +3.19  +1.07%
(5-yr INOCD5)
Oil..........107.28  -1.14     -1.05%
Gold......1391.48 -20.82   -1.47%
IDR.......11411 -34 -0.30%(blmbrg)
Euro.....1.3205 +0.004  +0.304%
TLKM....35.95 -1.11 -3.00%Rp2051
BumiPlc...219.70  +11.00 +5.27%
EIDO........22.45    +0.15   +0.67%
Timah......21750   +345    +1.62%
Nickel......13570    -80       -0.59%
Coal.........77.65   +0.40   +0.52%
CPO.......2399RM -20 -0.83%$730
Corn.........469.50 -5.75 -1.21%
SoybeanOil.43.93 -0.26 -0.59%
Wheat......646.25 -1.00 -0.15%
DOC(30 Agt) 4000 +0     +0%

(DE/ls- 05-09-13)

Market Research - First Asia Capital (PC) 5/9/2013

* Setelah menguat 62,729 poin hari sebelumnya, IHSG kembali terkoreksi signifikan 90,557 poin atau 2,17% di 4073,455. Tekanan jual terjadi di sejumlah saham unggulan sejak awal perdagangan, hanya saham sektor tambang batubara dan energi yang berhasil menguat. Dana asing di pasar saham kembali keluar mencapai Rp.164,76 miliar di tengah nilai transaksi yang tipis di Pasar Reguler hanya mencapai Rp.4,08 triliun.
* Tekanan jual terutama dipicu pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah atas dolar AS yang mencapai Rp.11500 dan ancaman krisis Suriah yang bisa mendorong kenaikan harga minyak mentah. Kondisi ini akan kembali mengancam naiknya defisit transaksi berjalan Indonesia.
* Sementara Wall Street tadi malam berhasil melanjutkan penguatannya. Indeks DJIA dan S&P masing-masing naik 0,65% dan 0,81% di 14930,87 dan 1653,08. Kenaikan indeks utama Wall Street tersebut terutama dipicu redahnya kekhawatiran pasar atas serangan militer AS ke Suriah yang diperkirakan akan terbatas dan berlangsung singkat. Kongres AS menyetujui rencana Presiden Obama untuk serangan militer ke Suriah. Selain itu kepercayaan pasar kembali meningkat atas prospek perekonomian AS setelah penjualan mobil Agustus naik 2,5% dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya, mencapai 16,1 juta unit yang merupakan level tertingginya sejak Oktober 2007.
* Melanjutkan perdagangan hari ini, IHSG diperkirakan masih akan terkoreksi namun terbatas karena sejumlah saham sektoral berpeluang mengalami technical rebound. Faktor nilai tukar rupiah atas dolar AS lebih menentukan pergerakan indeks. IHSG diperkirakan bergerak dengan support di 4020 dan resisten di 4125.

IHSG : S1 4060  S2 4020  R1 4125  R2 4200

Saham Pilihan

ENRG 76-86 BoW, SL 74
ASRI 485-540 Buy, SL 480
BRAU 144-169 BoW, SL 142
ASSA 250-290 TB, SL 240
BBNI 3450-3675 BoW, SL 3350
PGAS 5000-5550 BoW, SL 4850
RALS 920-1060 BoW, SL 900
BORN 240-300 TB, SL 230

Disclaimer On
First Asia Research

 UPDATE On USD/IDR Offshore & Onshore, Indonesia Bond & CDS Range, Wednesday 04 September 2013:

* New York range: 11,620/11,630
   close 11,610/11,650


* London range: 11,620/11,650
   close 11,610/11,640


* Jakarta range: 11,360/11,475
   close 11,405


* Indo 10 Year. 8.627% +0.18 +0.10%


* Indo CDS.    299.8 +3.19  +1.07%
   (5-yr INOCD5)