Thanks to earning reports yang menjadi fokus minggu ini dimana emiten seperti: DuPont, Texas Instrument, United Tech & Boeing melaporkan revenue & earnings diatas ekspektasi pelaku pasar, menjadi faktor Dow Jones kembali membukukan "New High Level" sepanjang masa sebesar +22.19 poin (+0.14%) ditutup pada level 15567.74 tetapi diiringi kenaikan The Vix sebesar +3.01% ditutup pada level 12.66 ditengah turunnya Manufacturing activity diarea Central Atlantic bulan Juli yang turun menjadi -11 dibandingkan level revisi 7.
Bursa Indonesia Rabu ini ES melihat dalam kondisi "Cautiously Optimistic" artinya berpeluang menguat didorong penguatn Dow Jones & Euphoria release LK Q2/2013 tetapi ada "threat" akibat terus melemahnya Rupiah atas US dollar onshore dimana Selasa sempat melemah ke level Rp 10,200 (YTD Rupiah turun -5.3%), tetapi IHSG ditutup menguat tajam didorong penguatan Bursa Asia spt: NIKKEI (+0.82%), SHANGHAI (+1.95%), HSI (+2.33%), KOSPI (+1.27%) & STI (+0.60%) ditengah spekulasi China akan meneruskan Paket Stimulus setelah PM China mengatakan dia tidak akan membiarkan pertumbuhan ekonomi China dibawah 7%.
DOW +22.19 +0.14% 15567.74
S&P -3.14 -0.19% 1692.39
NASDAQ -21.11 -0.59% 3579.27
VIX +0.37 +3.01% 12.66
OIL +0.28 +0.26% 107.23
GOLD +0.1 +0.01%1334.7
NICKEL +5 +0.03% 14130
TIN +76 +0.39% 19550
CPO -9 -0.38%. 2346
TLK 46.43 (11,820)
IDR 10,180
Wednesday IDX Range: 4719 - 4814
BUY: BMRI, BBRI, JSMR, SMGR, ICBP, BBCA, TLKM, BSDE, UNVR, INCO, SIMP, INTP, PGAS, CPIN, CTRA (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
"Have a Tremendous Wednesday & GBU All"
Good morning,
Stocks finished narrowly mixed in lackluster trading Tuesday, but the Dow posted a fresh closing high, as investors weighed a handful of upbeat earnings against a weak regional factory report.
Dow......15567 +22.2 +0.14%
Nasdaq...3579 -21.1 -0.59%
S&P 500.1692 -3.1 -0.19%
FTSE.......6597 -25.7 -0.39%
Dax.........8314 -16.8 -0.20%
CAC40.....3923 -16.8 -0.43%
Nikkei.....14478 +120.5+0.82%
HSI.........21915 +498.9+2.33%
PSE.........6743 +115.8 +1.75%
US10Yr...2.50% +0.02 +0.81%
VIX.........12.66 +0.37 +3.01%
USD Index 81.98-0.23 -0.28%
Como Indx.290.7-0.39 -0.13%
IndoCDS....190.0 -0.70 -0.37%
(5-yr INOCD5)
Oil..........107.42 +0.48 +0.48%
Gold......1345.45+9.91 +0.74%
IDR.......10193(yahoo finance)
Euro.....1.3221
TLKM.46.48 +0.49+1.07%Rp11844
BumiPlc...216.5 -20.50 -8.65%
EIDO........30.32 +0.05 +0.17%
Timah......19450 +75 +0.39%
Nickel......14045 +20 +0.14%
Coal.........76.40 +0.15+0.19%
CPO........2258RM-14-0.62%$
Corn.........485.50 -12.50-2.51%
SoybeanOil.44.68 -0.63 -1.39%
Wheat.......653.75 -6.00 -0.91%
DOC(20 Jul)..6750 +0 +0%
(DE/ls- 24-07-13)
RISET CIMB 24 JULI 2013 :
1.Bank Tabungan Negara | Trying times
BBTN IJ / BBTN.JK | UNDERPERFORM - Downgrade | Rp1,240.00 - Tgt. Rp1,250.00
Mkt.Cap: US$1,284.00m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$2.68m | Free Float: 38.60%
Banks | Author(s): Soegiarto HADI, FRM,
1H13 earnings missed forecasts at 42% of our and 43% of consensus full-year estimates, as non-subsidised mortgage NPL remained high. Loans and deposits growth was stellar, but we think a challenging inflation and rate environment can crimp BTN’s near-term earnings. 1H13 net profit was up only 2% due to mark-to-market and treasury losses. We up our risk-free rate assumption from 6.5% to 7.0% and cut our long-term ROE assumption from 16.5% to 16.0%, trimming our GGM-based target price. We also cut EPS targets to account for higher cost of funds, and downgrade our rating from Outperform to Underperform.
Stellar lending and deposits
The deposits and loans growth was strong at 24% and 27% respectively, accompanied by an improvement in CASA ratio. However, a lower NIM (5.2% in 2Q13 vs. 6.0% in 2Q12), which was partly contributed by higher NPLs, meant that PPOP growth was more modest at 16% yoy. Since Apr, BTN has raised its time deposit rate by 50-75bp for high-net-worth corporate customers and its savings deposit rate by 25bp; however, this is mostly offset by a higher coupon rate on BTN’s Rp7tr variable rate bonds. The bank is cautious about increasing the rates of existing mortgage loans.
Tackling its NPL issue
BTN made a subtle improvement in its gross NPL ratio, down qoq from 4.8% to 4.6%, though still higher than 2Q12’s 3.5%, as the impact of its restructuring efforts on the subsidised mortgage NPL has yet to kick in. The high NPL lowered the provisioning coverage yoy from 38% to 26%, near BTN’s historical low.
2.Economic Update | 2Q13 investments: Solid if unspectacular
Author(s): Michelle CHIA,
Direct investments expanded 24.6% yoy in 2Q13 to achieve 51.1% of the official full-year target. FDI gains, however, slowed in 2Q, in line with the quarterly seasonal trends. We expect the balance of payments to remain in deficit in 2Q13, as 1) the growth in FDI will not completely offset the current account deficit; and 2) the sharp capital outflows in Jun, triggered by risks of ‘tapering’ asset purchases by the US Federal Reserve, will weigh on net portfolio investments.
Direct investments tally increases to US$10.6bn in 2Q13
2Q13 direct investments (DI) reached US$10.6bn, a 24.6% yoy rise (25.2% to US$9.9bn in 1Q13), based on an average exchange rate of Rp9,803/US$1. FDI growth slowed to 15% yoy, recording US$7.2bn in inflows (+23.1% to US$7.0bn in 1Q13). The slowdown in FDI growth reflects the depreciation in the rupiah from a year ago, and a seasonal dip in 2Q. In rupiah terms, FDI growth was 21.1% in 2Q13. Meanwhile, the domestic DI (DDI) rose 51.6% to US$3.4bn (+31% to US$2.8bn in 1Q13) on the back of larger inflows into the mining sector. In 1H13, FDI was 50.2% of the annual target, while the pickup in DDI put the 1H haul at 53.1% of the annual target. Total DI reached 51.1% of BKPM’s 2013 target.
FDI boost for the mining and transport sectors
The leading source of FDI in 2Q13 was Singapore (19% of total FDI), trailed by Japan (16.1%), the US (6.5%), South Korea (6.3%), and Mauritius (6.2%). By sectors, FDI was channelled into mining (17.3%), transport (14%), logistics and telecommunications (10.7%), metal, machinery & electronics (9.5%), and chemical & pharmaceutical (7.6%). The geographical distribution of FDI centred on the Java region: west Java (23.1%), Banten (17.6%), Jakarta (13.4%), east Java (11.3%), and Papua (7.2%).
3.Commodities Update | China commodity trade data, June 2013
Author(s): Daniel HYNES, Warren EDNEY
China’s commodity trade data for June reflected the broader slowdown in China’s economy, with imports in general remaining muted. With economic growth and export demand showing no signs of improving any time soon, the likelihood of further weakness in imports is high. Amongst this malaise there were some standouts, with crude oil and refined copper imports showing positive growth from May. Overall we continue to see commodities remaining susceptible to sell-offs as Chinese growth suffers from a weak global market. But this data shows that there are still selective opportunities in the short term, in particular copper and crude oil.
Copper imports strong
Primary copper imports (anode, refined and alloys) were strong, rising 11% mom to 328kt (up 13% yoy), while exports rose 32% mom to 19.1kt, taking net imports to 309kt (up 10% mom and 21% yoy). This was driven by a tighter domestic market, which has kept the import arbitrage open since the beginning of 2Q13. In other base metals, nickel imports were up 6.6% yoy, likely reflecting stockpiling by China’s SRB. Tin imports fell 63% yoy while China did not import any refined lead. Zinc concentrate imports rose 52% yoy to 228kt, although refined zinc imports fell 45% mom to 30.6kt (-8% yoy).
Crude demand rebounds
A pick up in utilisation rates pushed China’s crude oil demand higher in June as the maintenance season came to an end. Despite this, crude oil imports rose by only 2% yoy to 22.2Mt (5.4Mb/d). But in terms of actual consumption, we saw solid growth in gasoline demand (+13.5% to 2.15mb/d), diesel (+3.5%) and fuel oil (+36% to 778kb/d).
Coal imports weaken
Thermal coal imports fell 21% yoy to 23.8Mt in June, which was unexpected given the downward price trend in the market.
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