Kejatuhan saham Caterpillar (-2.4%), AT&T (-1.2%), Broadcom (-15.1%) & Boeing (-0.8%) sbg dampak mengecewakannya revenue & earnings emiten tsb di-off set kenaikan saham Apple (+5.1%) mjd faktor Dow turun -25.5 poin (-0.16%) ditutup pd level 15542.24 diiringi kenaikan The Vix +4.11% ditutup pd level 13.18.
Hingga Rabu (24/7), sdh 169 emiten yg tergabung dlm Index S&P 500 melaporkan earning Q2/2012 dmn 65.7% diantaranya melaporkan earning diatas ekspektasi, sementara 53.3% melaporkan revenue diatas ekspektasi awal dmn para analyst memperkirakan LK Q2/2012 emiten akan melaporkan 2.9% kenaikan Vs tahun lalu, dgn perkiraan kenaikan revenue 1.1%.
Melemahnya Rupiah atas US Dollar yg mencapai Rp 10,262 dlm perdagangan Rabu sebagai dampak 4 faktor seperti: tingginya demand US dolar utk kebutuhan impor, pembayaran utang luar negeri, repatriasi income hasil dividen ke negara asal & lemahnya inflow US Dollar kedalam Indonesia menjadi salah satu faktor IHSG melemah & bergerak anomali dibandingkan Bursa Regional.
Jika Rupiah terus melemah terhadap US Dollar (ES perkirakan Rupiah berpotensi melemah kelevel 10,500 dalam beberapa bulan kedepan) & mendorong inflasi (imported inflation) semakin meningkat, bukan mustahil ES perkirakan BI Rate berpotensi kembali naik 25 bp kelevel 6.75% dalam bebearpa bulan kedepan.
DOW -25.5 -0.16% 15542.24
S&P -6.45 -0.38% 1685.94
NASDAQ +0.33 +0.01% 3579.6
VIX +0.52 +4.11% 13.18
OIL -1.91 -1.78% 105.32
GOLD -14 -1.05% 1320.7
NICKEL +192 +1.36% 14332
TIN -49 -0.25% 19501
CPO -46 -1.53%. 2310
TLK 46.26 (11,600)
IDR 10,250
Thursday IDX Range: 4670 - 4773
BUY: SMGR, AKRA, BBCA, ICBP, UNVR
BOW: BMRI, BBRI, TLKM, JSMR, BSDE, INTP, PGAS, MYOR, CTRA, INCO (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
"Have a Remarkable Thursday & GBU All"
Thursday (25/07/2013) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang. CSA®-MNC Sec)
IDX Composite 4670 - 4773
Pola Bearish Harami terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal dihari Kamis.
Thursday Stocks Pick:
SMGR 15150-15600 (TP 2013F:21200) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas SMGR mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 15300
AKRA 4800-5050 (TP 2013F:6000) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas AKRA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 4875
BBCA 10250-10550 (TP 2013F:11800) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas BBCA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 10350
ICBP 11250-11650 (TP 2013F:13000) Pola Evening Doji Star terbentuk atas ICBP mengindikasikan perlambatan aksi beli. BUY 11350
UNVR 32750-34850 (TP 2013F:34950) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas UNVR mengindikasikan perlambatan aksi beli. BUY 33600
BMRI 8700-9050 (TP 2013F:10650) Pola Black Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas BMRI mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 8800
BBRI 7900-8250 (TP 2013F:10200) Pola Bearish Harami terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 8000
TLKM 11550-12050 (TP 2013F:11650) Pola White Opening Marubozu diiringi net sell terbentuk atas TLKM mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 11700
JSMR 5900-6250 (TP 2013F:6475) Pola bearish Harami terbentuk atas JSMR mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 6000
BSDE 1560-1650 (TP 2013F:2400). Pola Black Candle terbentuk atas BSDE mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 1580
INTP 21550-22700 (TP 2013F:29500) Pola Black Candle terbentuk atas INTP mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 22000
PGAS 5400-5800 (TP 2013F:6700) Pola Black Candle terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 5550
MYOR 32600-33500 (TP 2013F:36500) Pola Two Black Crows terbentuk atas MYOR mengindikasikan Bearish Continuation. BOW 32900
INCO 1975-2150 (TP 2013F:2300) Pola Black Candle terbentuk atas INCO mengindikasikan Bearish Continuation. BOW 2025 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Good morning,
The Dow and S&P 500 finished in negative territory Wednesday as investors digested the latest batch of corporate earnings, while stronger-than-expected results from Apple helped limit losses on the Nasdaq.
Dow......15542 -25.5 -0.16%
Nasdaq...3579 +0.3 +0.01%
S&P 500.1685 -6.45 -0.38%
FTSE.......6620 +22.9 +0.35%
Dax.........8379 +64.9 +0.78%
CAC40.....3962 +39.7 +0.01%
Nikkei.....14731 -47.2 -0.32%
HSI.........21968 +53.5 +0.24%
PSE.........6804 +61 +0.90%
US10Yr...2.58% +0.08 +3.20%
VIX.........13.18 +0.52 +4.11%
USD Index82.27+0.29 +0.35%
Como Indx.287.7-2.96 -1.02%
IndoCDS....194.6+4.63 +2.44%
(5-yr INOCD5)
Oil..........105.27 -2.15 -2.00%
Gold......1323.27 -22.18 -1.65%
IDR.......10225(yahoo finance)
Euro.....1.3198
TLKM.45.39 -1.09-2.33%Rp11636
BumiPlc...225.0 +8.5 +3.93%
EIDO........29.73 -0.59 -1.95%
Timah......19400 -50 -0.36%
Nickel......14225 +180 +1.28%
Coal.........76.75 +0.35+0.46%
CPO........2224RM-34-1.55%$
Corn.........480.25 -5.25 -1.08%
SoybeanOil.44.11 -0.57 -1.28%
Wheat.......653.25 -0.50 -0.08%
DOC(20 Jul)..6750 +0 +0%
(DE/ls- 25-07-13)
----------------------
RISET CIMB 25 JULI 2013 :
1.Adhi Karya | Show me more
ADHI IJ / ADHI.JK | NEUTRAL - Maintained | Rp3,125.00 - Tgt. Rp3,300.00
Mkt.Cap: US$551.90m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$4.35m | Free Float: 46.00%
Construction | Author(s): Lydia TOISUTA, Linda LAUWIRA
As we expect costs to pick up in 2H13, we deem the results in line with our expectation and retain our earnings forecast. Progress on new contract awards and property presales may alter our cautious view. The 1H13 core earnings form 17% of our estimate and 15% of the street’s, ahead of historical seasonality. We maintain our FY13-15 earnings as we expect costs to rise faster in 2H from the raw material price increases as an indirect result of the fuel hike. Maintain Neutral rating and Rp3,300 target price, which is still based on 11.5x CY14 P/E (15% discount to contractors’ mid-cycle P/E).
Better than last quarter
Revenue grew 88% yoy, making up 29% of our estimate and 31% of consensus’ FY13 numbers (vs. the three-year average of 28%). Unlike 1Q13, the gross margin improved by 0.5% pts yoy to 10.4% in 2Q and its loss-making EPC recorded a positive gain in 2Q13. Opex to sales continued to decline by 40bp to 3.3% in 2Q13, propping up operating margin to 7.3% (vs. 1H12: 6.4%). Core earnings grew by 110.6% yoy to Rp61.5bn, forming 17% of our FY13 estimates (vs. three-year average of 13%). Impairment expense in 1H13 only made up 4% of our FY13 estimates. According to management, the writeback from PT Jakarta Monorail might be used to offset its large impairment expenses.
Still Neutral for now
Adhi is currently trading at 10.9x CY14 P/E or at a 17% discount to its peers. However, with the risk of dilution from its potential rights issue and relatively slow new contract awards, we are concerned about its earnings quality. Its exposure to mid- to low-end property projects in the face of rising interest rates might provide headwinds instead of the expected tailwinds
2.Bank Tabungan Pensiunan | Strength in its core
BTPN IJ / BTPN.JK | NEUTRAL - Maintained | Rp4,575.00 - Tgt. Rp4,900.00
Mkt.Cap: US$2,620.00m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$0.83m | Free Float: 33.90%
Banks | Author(s): Soegiarto HADI, FRM,
1H13 net profit was in line with consensus and our forecasts, driven by strong growth in core pension and micro lending. Overall yield decreased, resulting in a lower NIM despite the higher LDR. We expect growth to ease in the coming quarters due to higher cost of funds. 1H13 net profit formed 48% of our full-year forecast. We maintain our Neutral rating while lowering our EPS forecasts to account for a higher cost of funds outlook. Our GGM-based (ROE: 23.0%, LTG: 10.0%) target price is slightly lowered due to a higher risk-free rate assumption of 7.0%, up from 6.5% earlier.
Anticipating 3Q13
BTPN has raised its time-deposit rate by 75bp this year, while provisioning coverage has been raised from 142% in 2Q12 to 146% in 2Q13 in anticipation of a potential upside risk to the gross NPL ratio of 0.7%. On the lending side, BTPN has decided to maintain its rates on existing loans for now, though they can be increased if BI raises its rates further.
Risks and upside priced in
The current high ROE should normalise in the medium term, given the decreasing NIM and slowing growth pace. However, most of it has been priced in. We keep our Neutral rating due to lack of catalysts amidst a challenging macro environment.
1.Adhi Karya | Show me more
ADHI IJ / ADHI.JK | NEUTRAL - Maintained | Rp3,125.00 - Tgt. Rp3,300.00
Mkt.Cap: US$551.90m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$4.35m | Free Float: 46.00%
Construction | Author(s): Lydia TOISUTA, Linda LAUWIRA
As we expect costs to pick up in 2H13, we deem the results in line with our expectation and retain our earnings forecast. Progress on new contract awards and property presales may alter our cautious view. The 1H13 core earnings form 17% of our estimate and 15% of the street’s, ahead of historical seasonality. We maintain our FY13-15 earnings as we expect costs to rise faster in 2H from the raw material price increases as an indirect result of the fuel hike. Maintain Neutral rating and Rp3,300 target price, which is still based on 11.5x CY14 P/E (15% discount to contractors’ mid-cycle P/E).
Better than last quarter
Revenue grew 88% yoy, making up 29% of our estimate and 31% of consensus’ FY13 numbers (vs. the three-year average of 28%). Unlike 1Q13, the gross margin improved by 0.5% pts yoy to 10.4% in 2Q and its loss-making EPC recorded a positive gain in 2Q13. Opex to sales continued to decline by 40bp to 3.3% in 2Q13, propping up operating margin to 7.3% (vs. 1H12: 6.4%). Core earnings grew by 110.6% yoy to Rp61.5bn, forming 17% of our FY13 estimates (vs. three-year average of 13%). Impairment expense in 1H13 only made up 4% of our FY13 estimates. According to management, the writeback from PT Jakarta Monorail might be used to offset its large impairment expenses.
Still Neutral for now
Adhi is currently trading at 10.9x CY14 P/E or at a 17% discount to its peers. However, with the risk of dilution from its potential rights issue and relatively slow new contract awards, we are concerned about its earnings quality. Its exposure to mid- to low-end property projects in the face of rising interest rates might provide headwinds instead of the expected tailwinds
2.Bank Tabungan Pensiunan | Strength in its core
BTPN IJ / BTPN.JK | NEUTRAL - Maintained | Rp4,575.00 - Tgt. Rp4,900.00
Mkt.Cap: US$2,620.00m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$0.83m | Free Float: 33.90%
Banks | Author(s): Soegiarto HADI, FRM,
1H13 net profit was in line with consensus and our forecasts, driven by strong growth in core pension and micro lending. Overall yield decreased, resulting in a lower NIM despite the higher LDR. We expect growth to ease in the coming quarters due to higher cost of funds. 1H13 net profit formed 48% of our full-year forecast. We maintain our Neutral rating while lowering our EPS forecasts to account for a higher cost of funds outlook. Our GGM-based (ROE: 23.0%, LTG: 10.0%) target price is slightly lowered due to a higher risk-free rate assumption of 7.0%, up from 6.5% earlier.
Anticipating 3Q13
BTPN has raised its time-deposit rate by 75bp this year, while provisioning coverage has been raised from 142% in 2Q12 to 146% in 2Q13 in anticipation of a potential upside risk to the gross NPL ratio of 0.7%. On the lending side, BTPN has decided to maintain its rates on existing loans for now, though they can be increased if BI raises its rates further.
Risks and upside priced in
The current high ROE should normalise in the medium term, given the decreasing NIM and slowing growth pace. However, most of it has been priced in. We keep our Neutral rating due to lack of catalysts amidst a challenging macro environment.
NEWS :
1.Pemegang saham PT Laguna Cipta Griya Tbk (LCGP) yaitu PT Astro Media Indonesia membeli 5 juta lembar saham LCGP pada 22 Juli 2013 lalu. Harga pembelian saham LCGP sebesar Rp275 per saham. Total nilai pembelian saham Rp1,37 miliar. Pembelian saham itu dilakukan oleh PT Anugrah Securindo Indah.
(SUMBER : INILAH.COM)
2.Perusahaan ritel PT Ace Hardware Tbk (ACES) berencana membuka dua gerai di Banten dan Jawa Tengah pada 26 Juli 2013.
(SUMBER : BISNIS IND)
3.TBIG
menyatakan siap mengambil sahamnya jika ISAT melakukan pelepasan saham TBIG. Seperti diketahui, sebelumnya Indosat dikabarkan bakal melepas kepemilikan 5% saham yg dimilikinya di Tower Bersama.
Batasan waktu pembelian kembali saham atau buyback saham TBIG akan dilakukan per 25 Juli 2013 sampai dengan 24 Januari 2015 atau berjangka waktu selama 18 bulan. Perseroan telah menyiapkan dana dari kas internal sebanyak-banyaknya Rp 1,44 triliun untuk proses buyback ini.
(SUMBER : KONTAN)
4.Jadwal IPO Puradelta Lestari.
-Masa Penawaran Awal : Perkiraan -Tanggal Efektif : 24 Juli - 1 Agustus 2013
-Tanggal Efektif : 15 Agustus 2013
-Perkiraan Masa Penawaran : 16, 19, 20 Agustus 2013
-Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 22 Agustus 2013
-Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham Secara Elektronik : 23 Agustus 2013
-Perkiraan Tanggal Pengembalian Uang Pemesanan (Refund) : 23 Agustus 2013
-Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham Pada Bursa Efek Indonesia :26 Agustus 2013
-Jumlah saham yg dilepas 10,84 miliar saham, atau setara 20% dari modal yang ditempatkan dan disetor penuh.
-Harga kisaran Rp205 - Rp255 per efek.
Dengan kisaran harga tersebut, artinya manajemen membidik duit segar sekitar Rp 2,22 triliun hingga Rp 2,77 triliun melalui perhelatan initial public offering (IPO). Harga tersebut mencerminkan discounted to net asset value (NAV) sebesar 50%-60%.
(SUMBER : KONTAN)
----------------------
1.Pemegang saham PT Laguna Cipta Griya Tbk (LCGP) yaitu PT Astro Media Indonesia membeli 5 juta lembar saham LCGP pada 22 Juli 2013 lalu. Harga pembelian saham LCGP sebesar Rp275 per saham. Total nilai pembelian saham Rp1,37 miliar. Pembelian saham itu dilakukan oleh PT Anugrah Securindo Indah.
(SUMBER : INILAH.COM)
2.Perusahaan ritel PT Ace Hardware Tbk (ACES) berencana membuka dua gerai di Banten dan Jawa Tengah pada 26 Juli 2013.
(SUMBER : BISNIS IND)
3.TBIG
menyatakan siap mengambil sahamnya jika ISAT melakukan pelepasan saham TBIG. Seperti diketahui, sebelumnya Indosat dikabarkan bakal melepas kepemilikan 5% saham yg dimilikinya di Tower Bersama.
Batasan waktu pembelian kembali saham atau buyback saham TBIG akan dilakukan per 25 Juli 2013 sampai dengan 24 Januari 2015 atau berjangka waktu selama 18 bulan. Perseroan telah menyiapkan dana dari kas internal sebanyak-banyaknya Rp 1,44 triliun untuk proses buyback ini.
(SUMBER : KONTAN)
4.Jadwal IPO Puradelta Lestari.
-Masa Penawaran Awal : Perkiraan -Tanggal Efektif : 24 Juli - 1 Agustus 2013
-Tanggal Efektif : 15 Agustus 2013
-Perkiraan Masa Penawaran : 16, 19, 20 Agustus 2013
-Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 22 Agustus 2013
-Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham Secara Elektronik : 23 Agustus 2013
-Perkiraan Tanggal Pengembalian Uang Pemesanan (Refund) : 23 Agustus 2013
-Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham Pada Bursa Efek Indonesia :26 Agustus 2013
-Jumlah saham yg dilepas 10,84 miliar saham, atau setara 20% dari modal yang ditempatkan dan disetor penuh.
-Harga kisaran Rp205 - Rp255 per efek.
Dengan kisaran harga tersebut, artinya manajemen membidik duit segar sekitar Rp 2,22 triliun hingga Rp 2,77 triliun melalui perhelatan initial public offering (IPO). Harga tersebut mencerminkan discounted to net asset value (NAV) sebesar 50%-60%.
(SUMBER : KONTAN)
----------------------
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