Untuk pertama kalinya setelah bbrp minggu, The Fed "cukup jinak" dgn tdk menyinggung kelanjutan pengurangan/penghentian Paket Stimulus shg Wall Street kembali menguat krn dpt fokus atas release LK Q2/2013 dimana ada 157 emiten sepanjang minggu ini yg akan release spt: Senin (McDonald's, Halliburton, Hasbro,Kimberly-Clark, Netflix, Texas Instruments), Selasa (Altria, DuPont, Travelers, United Tech, UPS, Apple, AT&T, Broadcom), Rabu (Boeing, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Ford, GlaxoSmithKline, PepsiCo, Facebook, Qualcomm, Visa, Baidu), Kamis (Bristol-Myers, GM, 3M, Colcate-Palmolive, Credit Suisse, Sirius XM, Amazon.com, Starbucks) & Jumat (Tyco) sdgkan data ekonomi yg akan direlease spt: : Senin (Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index, Existing Home Sales); Selasa (FHFA Home Price Index, Richmond Fed Mfg Index, 2-yr note auction); Rabu (PMI Mfg Index, New Home sales, 5-yr note auction); Kamis (Durable Goods orders, Jobless Claims, Kansas City Fed Mfg index, 7-yr note auction) & Jumat (Consumer Sentiment).
Data ekonomi negara besar lain yg perlu dicermati spt: Euro (PMI Manufacturing, PMI Services, German IFO Business Climate, Current Assessment & Expectations. M3); Jepang (Supermarket Sales, Convenience Store Sales, Monrhly Economic Report for July, Merchandise Trade Balance) & China (HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI, MNI July Bisiness Sentiment Indicator, Industrial Profit YTD).
Dari dlm negeri, setelah minggu lalu IHSG naik +1.97% diiringi Net Sell Asing minggu ke-29 sebesar Rp -4.90 triliun, mk minggu ini ada 2 faktor penting yg patut diperhatikan yakni kelanjutan pergerakan USD/IDR setelah Jumat lalu mencapai Rp 10,070 & berpeluang terus melemah yg lambat tapi pasti akan menggerogoti kinerja emiten yg sensitive atas USD serta kelanjutan release LK Q2/2013.
Monday IDX Range: 4689 - 4757
BUY: MYOR, INDF, UNVR, CTRA, PGAS, TLKM, UNTR, INCO, ANTM, BSDE, BJBR (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Monday (22/07/2013) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang. CSA®-MNC Sec)
IDX Composite 4689 - 4757
Pola Four White Soldiers terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation dihari Senin.
Monday Stocks Pick:
MYOR 32600-33700 (TP 2013F:36500) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas MYOR mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 32900
INDF 7150-7450 (TP 2013F:8100) Pola White Closing Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas INDF mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 7250
UNVR 33400-34900 (TP 2013F:34950) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas UNVR mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 34550
CTRA 1190-1280 (TP 2013F:1650) Pola Four White Soldiers terbentuk atas CTRA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1220
PGAS 5700-6150 (TP 2013F:6700) Pola White Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 5850
TLKM 11450-12150 (TP 2013F:11650) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas TLKM mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 11600
UNTR 16750-17450 (TP 2013F:19000) Pola White Marubozu terbentuk atas UNTR mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 17050
INCO 1950-2100 (TP 2013F:2300) Pola White Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas INCO mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 1990
ANTM 1140-1240 (TP 2013F:1530) Pola White Opening terbentuk atas ANTM mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 1170
BSDE 1570-1650 (TP 2013F:2400). Pola Four White Soldiers terbentuk atas BSDE mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1600
BJBR 1160-1220 (TP 2013F:1300) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas BJBR mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1180 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Good morning,
Stocks finished largely unchanged in lackluster trading Friday, with the S&P 500 squeezing out a small gain to finish at another record high, but a batch of disappointing tech earnings weighed.
Dow......15543 -4.8 -0.03%
Nasdaq...3587 -23.6 -0.66%
S&P 500.1692 +2.7 +0.16%
FTSE........6630 -3.7 -0.06%
Dax..........8331 -5.5 -0.07%
CAC40......3925 -2.5 -0.06%
Nikkei.....14590 -218.6-1.48%
HSI.........21362 +17.2 +0.08%
PSE..........6621 -27.3 -0.41%
US10Yr...2.48% -0.05 -1.98%
VIX.........12.54 -1.23 -8.93%
USD Index 82.61-0.22 -0.26%
Como Indx.290.9+0.41 +0.14%
IndoCDS....197.9 -1.06 -0.53%
(5-yr INOCD5)
Oil..........108.05 -0.33 -0.31%
Gold......1296.03+11.13+0.87%
IDR.......10075(source: yahoo finance)
Euro.....1.3142
TLKM...45.13 +0.06+0.13%Rp11367
BumiPlc...259.30 suspend+0.00%
EIDO........30.13 -0.06 -0.20%
Timah......19400 -35 -0.18%
Nickel......14080 +150 +1.08%
Coal.........76.40 +0.15+0.19%
CPO........2257RM-34-1.53%$
Corn.........500.75 +0 +0%
SoybeanOil.45.32 -3.40 -0.65%
Wheat.......664.50+4.00 +0.61%
DOC(20 Jul)..6750 +0 +0%
(DE/ls- 22-07-13)
----------------------
RISET CIMB 22 JULI 2013 :
1.Telekomunikasi Indonesia | Strong signals in 2Q13
TLKM IJ / TLKM.JK | OUTPERFORM - Maintained | Rp11,650.00 - Tgt. Rp14,500.00
Mkt.Cap: US$23,187.00m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$30.17m | Free Float: 39.50%
Telco - Integrated | Author(s): Kelvin GOH, CFA,
While annualised 1H13 core net profit was 92% of our forecast and 93% and consensus estimate, we consider it to be in line because we expect 2H to be stronger. Revenue growth eased slightly to 9% yoy, in line with its guidance of 8-9%, with Telkomsel being the growth driver. Core net profit of non-Telkomsel businesses appears to have bottomed, thanks to fixed broadband growth which offset continued weakness from fixed voice. Telkom’s balance sheet remains underleveraged at 0.2x net debt/EBITDA. It remains an Outperform and a top regional pick, along with M1. We maintain our DCF-based target price.
Telkomsel leads the growth
Telkomsel’s revenue growth remained robust although it slowed from 13% to 11% on the back of 7% subscriber growth and a 3% rise in ARPUs (Figure 7). It appears that ARPUs are stabilising amid rising data consumption. Telkomsel added 4.5m SIMs after losing a similar number in 1Q. EBITDA margin slipped by 1.3% pts due to higher general operation & maintenance. This stemmed from increased network deployment, repair and maintenance of the billing system. Telkomsel’s BTS increased 32% yoy and 8% qoq as it expanded its 3G coverage and cemented its leadership. It has stepped up the rollout of 3G by adding more than 3k BTS in 2Q, the highest ever.
Speedy sustains fixed line
Non-Telkomsel revenue, EBITDA and core net profit were flattish yoy as the declining fixed line revenue was broadly offset by fixed broadband (Speedy). Fixed phone revenue fell 9% yoy, similar to the rate of decline in previous quarters. This is on the back of a 4% yoy rise in subscribers but a sharp 13% decline in ARPU.
2.Ace Hardware Indonesia | An off year
ACES IJ / ACES.JK | NEUTRAL - Downgrade | Rp720.00 - Tgt. Rp800.00
Mkt.Cap: US$1,219.00m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$2.25m | Free Float: 40.00%
Retail | Author(s): Erwan TEGUH, Linda LAUWIRA
Cost may stay elevated in 2Q, despite sales rebound. A more conservative view suggests stock seems fairly priced. Strong track record an asset, while robust long term growth outlook intact. As such, we downgrade our rating to Neutral from Outperform as we cut our FY13-15 EPS by 4-6% to incorporate slower space expansion and more conservative cost assumptions, in line with guidance. Our lower target price is still based on 25x CY14 P/E, premised on earnings growth rebounding to >25% post-2013 and an above-average corporate governance.
A challenging 2013
While the 27% sales growth forecast for 2013 could be considered brisk, it would still trail the 32% CAGR in the last 3 years as SSSG is projected to taper to 7% vs. the past 3-year average of 12%. Higher wages and rent, as well as the weaker rupiah to a lesser extent, are exerting pressure on EBIT margins that could fall by nearly 3%pts yoy. Space expansion remains ambitious at 14% in FY13, albeit much slower than the 26% CAGR in the 3 years before. Management is staying upbeat on sales despite the recent macro volatility, as evidenced by July’s 3-5% price increase plan that should help boost 2H’s margins. Seasonally, margins should improve markedly by 4Q. Put together, FY13’s earnings growth would be lacklustre in comparison with the 43% CAGR in the three years before.
Fairly priced for now
We forecast earnings growth rebounding to >25% next year but the premium valuation suggests a Neutral call is more appropriate.
bosman pangaribuan bb baru:
3.Ahead of the Curve | Last piece of the jigsaw
Author(s): Jim McCAFFERTY, James BARRETT, CFA
CIMB will add Taiwanese stocks to its coverage next week to coincide with the completion of its Asia-Pacific equities platform. We expect to cover some 67 stocks representing over 70% of the Taiwan market.
Initiation of coverage
CIMB added three small caps to its universe this week. In Thailand, we added SC Asset Corporation, one of the country's leading premium-housing developers. SC Asset participates in the resilient mid-high-end market and has been gaining market share from the major industry players. We see 64% upside to a target price of THB6.10, led by an expected strong core business and corporate activities which could involve injections of the company's three office buildings into REITs. The stock trades at a 27% discount to to its peer group on current-year P/Es.
Earnings momentum
Earnings downgrades dominated once again this week with China/HK, Australia and India accounting for 32 of our 42 earnings cuts. One of our more savage downgrades was applied to Australian-listed Perseus Mining where we cut Jun 14 earnings by 75% and cut the stock from Outperform to Neutral. In China/HK, we adjusted earnings for Chinese banks ahead of results for 2Q13, where we are expecting positive catalysts. The greatest adjustments were made for China CITIC Bank where we cut 2014-15 earnings by 14-17%. We remain positive on China banks. We upgraded Mar 14 earnings for Luk Fook Holdings by 10% to factor in a stronger first quarter and stronger sales in Apr by virtue of softening gold prices.
Research highlights
Our Australian strategy team published further work on the attraction of income stocks in the context of a low-interest-rate environment. We highlight the attraction of banks, consumer staples, utilities and telcos in this context.
WEEKLY REVISION REVIEW 12-19 JUL 2013 :
1.ADRO (19 Jul 2013)
RECOMMENDATION
Curr : Neutral
Prev : Neutral
PRICE TARGET
Curr : Rp 800
Prev : Rp 970
2.ASII (16 Jul 2013)
RECOMMENDATION
Curr : Underperform
Prev : Outperform
PRICE TARGET
Curr : Rp 6,600
Prev : Rp 8,150
3.BDMN (18 Jul 2013)
RECOMMENDATION
Curr : Underperform
Prev : Underperform
PRICE TARGET
Curr : Rp 4,000
Prev : Rp 4,925
4.PTBA (19 Jul 2013)
RECOMMENDATION
Curr : Neutral
Prev : Outperform
PRICE TARGET
Curr : Rp 13,300
Prev : Rp 16,700
5.HRUM (19 Jul 2013)
RECOMMENDATION
Curr : Underperform
Prev : Underperform
PRICE TARGET
Curr : Rp 3,000
Prev : Rp 4,025
6.ITMG (19 Jul 2013)
RECOMMENDATION
Curr : Underperform
Prev : Underperform
PRICE TARGET
Curr : Rp 20,750
Prev : Rp 27,500
7.PTPP (12 Juli 2013)
RECOMMENDATION
Curr : Outperform
Prev : Outperform
PRICE TARGET
Curr : Rp 1,750
Prev : Rp 1,800
8.TINS (15 Juli 2013)
RECOMMENDATION
Curr : Neutral
Prev : Neutral
PRICE TARGET
Curr : Rp 1,350
Prev : Rp 1,550
9.TOTL (12 Juli 2013)
RECOMMENDATION
Curr : Outperform
Prev : Neutral
PRICE TARGET
Curr : Rp 1,350
Prev : Rp 1,350
10.WIKA (12 Juli 2013)
RECOMMENDATION
Curr : Outperform
Prev : Outperform
PRICE TARGET
Curr : Rp 2,700
Prev : Rp 2,850
RESULT DIARY FR CIMB :
25 Juli 2013 : AALI, BTPN, PTBA, UNTR,
26 Juli 2013 : ASGR, BBKP, BBRI, BEST, JSMR, SMGR
TOP 10 STOCKS by MSCI WEIGHTING in INDONESIA. (MSCiI FF/Weight) :
1.ASII : MSCiI FF/Weight 12.37
2.BBCA : MSCiI FF/Weight 11.55
3.TLKM : MSCiI FF/Weight 9.50
4.BBRI : MSCiI FF/Weight 8.26
5.BMRI : MSCiI FF/Weight 7.55
6.PGAS : MSCiI FF/Weight 5.76
7.UNVR : MSCiI FF/Weight 4.75
8.SMGR : MSCiI FF/Weight 4.02
9.CPIN : MSCiI FF/Weight 3.25
10.KLBF : MSCiI FF/Weight 3.15
NEWS :
1.Asian Food Stocks’ 200% Rally Poised to Falter: Chart of the Day
2013-07-21 18:00:00.0 GMT
By Harry Suhartono
July 22 (Bloomberg) -- The rally in Asian food shares, which has given investors more than triple the gains of the broader market over the past decade, is poised to falter as valuations approach a five-year high.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows how the Bloomberg Asia Pacific
Food Index has climbed by more than 200 percent and the
Bloomberg World Asia Pacific Index by about 60 percent since the
regional gauge was first compiled in August 2003. The lower panel shows the food index’s price-estimated earnings multiple is 69 percent higher than the regional gauge’s valuation, nearing the biggest premium since December 2008, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Since the 2008 credit crisis, investors have been lured to shares of Charoen Pokphand Foods Pcl, Thailand’s largest manufacturer of meat products, and Universal Robina Corp., the Philippines’ biggest snack food producer, on optimism rising Asian wages and population will support their earnings.
“It is a more defensive sector and so through the period of uncertainties, we have seen investors flock to those stocks,” James Thom, a Singapore-based money manager at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc, said by phone on July 17. “We would probably be adding to names other than in the consumer sector on a relative value basis.” His firm oversees about $322 billion.
The food index, which measures 44 companies, has outpaced
Bloomberg’s Asian Pacific gauge by about 3 percentage points since May 22 after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled the possibility of curbing stimulus. It’s valued at 19 times estimates for this year’s profit, compared with the regional measure’s 11 times, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
(SUMBER : BLOOMBERG)
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