DJIA (+0.5%) kembali naik kelevel tertinggi sepanjang masa diiringi penurunan The Vix -0.07% ditutup pd level 13.77, dipimpin kenaikan saham Morgan Stanley & UnitedHealth serta statement Bernanke sebelum the Senate Banking Committee yg kembali menegaskan apa yg telah dikatakannya dihari Rabu, dmn DJIA 124 poin lebih tinggi dr level tertinggi yg pernah dicapai 22 May 2013, ditengah beragamnya kinerja ekonomi spt: Weekly Jobless Claims turun 24,000 unit mjd total 334,000 (Vs estimasi ekonom 345,000 unit), Business Activity di area the mid-Atlantic bln Juli naik kelevel terbaik sejak Maret 2011 mjd 19.8 Vs data Juni pd level 12.5 serta data Leading Indicators bln Juni flat dilevel 95.3 (tertinggi 5 thn terakhir).
Dari dalam negeri kembali terjadi perkembangan menarik di FX market dimana, setelah menaikkan BI Rate & suku pinjaman antar bank, Bank Indonesia kembali melakukan gebrakan dengan melakukan Lelang "Transaksi FX Swap" untuk jangka waktu 1,3 & 6 bln senilai USD 600 juta yg diharapkan dapat menambah likuiditas USD didalam pasar valas yg pada akhirnya DIHARAPKAN dapat MENURUNKAN "tensi tinggi" USD/IDR tetapi dilain pihak semalam Moody's "MENAIKKAN" Outlook US menjadi "Stable" & mempertahankan US rating "Aaa" dmn itu artinya ada peluang USD/IDR kembali menguat ditengah potensi lanjutan kenaikan IHSG yg dilakukan khususnya diakhir sesi alias adanya "tarikan Pre-Closing" yg sdh terjadi dlm bbrp hari ini ditengah Investor Asing yg terus membukukan Net Sell, Ytd (1 Jan hingga 18 Jul'13) berjumlah Rp -4.85 triliun.
DOW +78.02 +0.5% 15548.54
S&P +8.46 +0.5% 1689.37
NASDAQ +1.28 +0.04% 3611.28
OIL +1.74 +1.63% 108.22
GOLD +4.4 +0.34% 1281.9
NICKEL +68 +0.49% 14026
TIN +35 +0.18% 19535
CPO +63 .+2.77% 2340
TLK 45.07 (11,335)
IDR 10,055
Friday IDX Range: 4687 - 4753
BUY: INTP, WIKA, BBCA, PGAS, GGRM, BSDE, BMRI, WSKT, CPIN, UNVR, HRUM, SMGR, BBRI, JSMR (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Friday (19/07/2013) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang. CSA®-MNC Sec)
IDX Composite 4687 - 4753
Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation dihari Jumat.
Friday Stocks Pick:
BMRI 8600-9100 (TP 2013F:10650) Pola White Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas BMRI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 8750
BBRI 7900-8300 (TP 2013F:10200) Pola Three Soldiers terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 8050
INTP 22150-23200 (TP 2013F:29500) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas INTP mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 22500
WIKA 2175-2400 (TP 2013F:2850) Pola Four White Soldiers terbentuk atas WIKA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 2225
PGAS 5550-5850 (TP 2013F:6700) Pola Dragonfly Doji terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 5700.
GGRM 46700-47750 (TP 2013F:54050) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas GGRM mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 47150
BSDE 1560-1660 (TP 2013F:2400). Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas BSDE mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1590
WSKT 790-880 (TP 2013F:1090) Pola White Candle terbentuk atas WSKT mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 820
CPIN 4700-4925 (TP 2013F:5370) Pola White Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas CPIN mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 4775
UNVR 32500-34850 (TP 2013F:34950) Pola Four White Soldiers terbentuk atas UNVR mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 33850
JSMR 6100-6400 (TP 2013F:6475) Pola White Candle terbentuk atas JSMR mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 6200
ICBP 11000-11650 (TP 2013F:13000) Pola Short Black candle terbentuk atas ICBP mengindikasikan perlambatan aksi beli. BUY 11150
KLBF 1450-1540 (TP 2013F:1720) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas KLBF mengindikasikan Bullish continuation. BUY 1490
TLKM 11250-11700 (TP 2013F:11650) Pola Bullish Harami terbentuk atas TLKM mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 11350 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Good morning,
Stocks finished higher Thursday, with the Dow and S&P 500 setting fresh highs, boosted by a batch of upbeat economic reports and after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated that monetary policy will remain highly accommodative, even as the central bank starts to pare back its bond buying.
Dow......15548 +78.0 +0.50%
Nasdaq...3611 +1.3 +0.04%
S&P 500..1689 +8.5 +0.50%
FTSE........6634 +62.4 +0.95%
Dax..........8337 +82.4 +1.00%
CAC40......3928 +55.8 +1.44%
Nikkei.....14808 +193.5+1.32%
HSI.........21435 -26.7 -0.28%
PSE..........6648 +73.6 +1.12%
US10Yr...2.53% +0.04 +1.60%
VIX.........13.77 -0.01 -0.07%
USD Index 82.79+0.09 +0.11%
Como Indx.290.5+2.55 +0.89%
IndoCDS....199.0 -8.93 -4.29%
(5-yr INOCD5)
Oil..........108.17 +1.58 +1.48%
Gold......1284.90+9.35 +0.73%
IDR.......10060(source: yahoo finance)
Euro.....1.3106
TLKM...45.07 -0.07 -0.16%Rp11335
BumiPlc...259.30 suspend+0.00%
EIDO........30.19 -0.41 -1.34%
Timah......19435 +35 +0.18%
Nickel......13930 +70 +0.51%
Coal.........76.40 +0.15+0.19%
CPO........2291RM+41+1.82%$
Corn.........500.75 -1.25 -0.25%
SoybeanOil.45.39 -0.12 -0.26%
Wheat.......660.50 -4.50 -0.68%
DOC(13 Jul)..6750 +0 +0%
(DE/ls- 19-07-13)
----------------------
THIS WEEK :
19 Juli
-Cum Dev MDRN RP 2
-Cum Dev EMTK Rp60
-Cum Dev B BNP Rp13
-Cum Stock Split TOWR 1:10
-Akhir Perdagangan INDS-R 2 : 3 1700
-Lap Keu BJBR 1H13 (am session)
-RUPSLB/T : Bumi Resouces
Valuation nears trough
At a US$80/t coal price, the sector‟s EBITDA margin declines to the pre-2007 boom level of US$7/t. EV/Reserve fell to current US$4/t but we think that this is only justified if margin improves to US$10-15/t. The sector trades at an FY13 P/E of 8x in our base-case scenario of US$95/t coal price, but this rises to 26x based on a US$80/t coal price. This is only fair if we assume that the earnings scenario reflects trough levels.
2.Bank Danamon | Bound by poor macro outlook
BDMN IJ / BDMN.JK | UNDERPERFORM - Maintained | Rp5,700.00 - Tgt. Rp4,000.00
Mkt.Cap: US$5,431.00m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$2.98m | Free Float: 31.30%
Banks | Author(s): Soegiarto HADI, FRM,
1H13 net profit contracted by 1% yoy on weak auto lending to come in below our and consensus expectations. Provisioning coverage was increased and the time deposit rate was raised, as Danamon buckles up for a challenging 2H13. 1H13’s net profit formed only 44% of our full-year forecast and 45% of the consensus number. We increase our provisioning coverage and lower our loan growth assumptions for the challenging macro conditions. This cuts our FY13-15 EPS by 14-20%, and lowers our GGM-based target price (ROE: 15.0%, LTG: 10.0%). Maintain Underperform.
3.Telco - Overall | Cashing in on data
NEUTRAL - Upgrade
Author(s): Kelvin GOH, CFA, Bertram LAI, Ian MARTIN, Pisut NGAMVIJITVONG, Alan STUART, Piyush CHOUDHARY, Samuel MARTENS
We upgrade the APAC telco sector to Neutral from Underweight following its recent sell-off. We raise Indonesia and Singapore telcos to Overweight from Neutral as risks have eased and mobile data is an emerging growth driver. We continue to like fixed broadband plays. We think dividend-yielding stocks will face headwinds as bond yields should rise. We remain Neutral on China, Korea and Malaysia and Underweight on Australian and Indian telcos. Our top picks are M1, SK Telecom, Telkom Indonesia, Tower Bersama, Thaicom and Jasmine.
Corporate actions
Telkom Indonesia hopes to list its tower arm, Mitratel, in 4Q. We think DiGi is a prime candidate to inject its assets into a business trust, when the rules are formulated. True may also sell its towers to a fund and dispose of assets to de-gear. XL Axiata may acquire Axis for its spectrum, in our view.
Regulatory/policy risks remain high
India continues to top our list here on the back of spectrum auctions and payouts related to 900MHz licence renewal, new 1800MHz spectrums and the probability of 700MHz auctions for LTE. In China, we expect the proposal of asymmetric policies to curb China Mobile’s dominance in 4G. We expect Korea to sell spectrum in 2H. We expect Korea to sell spectrum in 2H and see potential for a bidding war to ensue to gain vital 1.8GHz spectrum.
Market Research - First Asia Capital (PC) 19/07/2013
* IHSG kemarin kembali ditutup di teritori positif menguat 41,434 poin atau 0,9% di 4720,435. Penguatan terutama dipicu aksi beli atas saham jasa konstruksi, konsumsi, properti, dan perbankan. Pelaku pasar mengantisipasi kuatnya pertumbuhan laba 2Q13 sektor jasa konstruksi, properti dan barang konsumsi. Redahnya kekhawatiran pasar terhadap langkah The Fed mengurangi stimulus yang dimulai akhir tahun ini juga turut menopang penguatan IHSG. Namun pergerakan indeks masih dalam tren konsolidasi dengan rentang yang terbatas.
* Sementara Wall Street dan zona Euro sejumlah indeks utama saham ditutup di teritori positif tadi malam. Pelaku pasar menyambut positif testimoni Bernanke mengenai kebijakan stimulusnya hingga perekonomian AS dinilai pulih. Indeks DJIA dan S&P di Wall Street tadi malam masing-masing ditutup naik 0,5% dan 0,5% di level tertinggi baru di 15548,54 dan 1689,37. Respon positif pasar juga dipicu dinaikkannya outlook utang AS oleh Moody’s Investors Service menjadi ‘stable’ dari ‘negative’ dengan peringkat tetap ‘Aaa’. Angka jobless claims pekan lalu juga turun 24 ribu menjadi 334 ribu, merupakan level terendah dalam empat bulan terakhir.
* Dengan kondisi pasar saham global yang bergerak positif pelaku pasar diperkirakan masih berpeluang melakukan pembelian selektif atas emiten-emiten sektoral yang memiliki pertumbuhan laba kuat. IHSG diperkirakan akan kembali bergerak di zona positif dengan menguji resisten di 4780 dan support sementara ada di 4680.
IHSG : S1 4680 S2 4650 R1 4780 R2 4820
Saham Pilihan
BMRI 8700-9000 TB, SL 8500
ASRI 720-800 BoW, SL 700
RALS 1230-1340 TB, SL 1210
BBKP 640-680 Buy, SL 630
CTRP 990-1110 Buy, SL 940
LSIP 1240-1510 BoW, SL 1220
MDLN 890-940 Buy, SL 860
ENRG 115-121 TB, SL 111
BEST 680-800 TB, SL 670
WSKT 790-890 Buy, SL 770
Disclaimer On
First Asia Research
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