Prediksi Market, Rabu 17 Juli 2013

Wednesday (17/07/2013) Early BIRD Fundamental Perspective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Securities)

Setelah Dow naik 8 hari, dipimpin kejatuhan saham Walt Disney & Coca-Cola & menjelang Semi-Annual Testimony Bernanke Rabu didepan Congress utk didengar penjelasannya mengenai ke arah mana stimulus moneter tsb akan berada, akhirnya Dow turun -32.41 poin (-0.21%) ditutup pd level 15451.85 diiringi kenaikan The Vix +4.57% ditutup pd level 14.42 ditengah kenaikan terbesar sejak Jan' 2006 Home Builder Confidence Juli mjd 57 dr sebelumnya revisi Juni level 51 & diatas ekspektasi ekonom pd level 52 serta naiknya CPI bln Juni 0.5% didorong kenaikan harga BBM, lebih tinggi dibandingkan ekspektasi ekonom 0.3% (diluar biaya makanan & energi core inflasi Juni 0.2%) serta data Industrial Production bln Juni naik 0.3% atau lebih tinggi dibandingkan ekspektasi ekonom 0.2%.

Dari dalam negeri ES mengamati sedang terjadi "fenomena lucu" yakni setelah Bank Indonesia menaikkan BI Rate 50 bp & mengintervensi FX market dgn puluhan miliar USD, ternyata USD/IDR tembus diatas 10,000, tetapi akhir-akhir ini BI bersama pemerintah ramai mengatakan level 10,000 utk Rupiah bukanlah level "keramat", so pertanyaan sederhana ES adlh WHY BI perlu repot-repot melakukan intervensi dgn "menghabiskan" puluhan miliar USD cadangan devisa kalaupun USD/IDR tembus diatas 10,000 & utk menutupi "kegagalan", mereka pd akhirnya mengatakan level 10,000 bukan level keramat, better dibiarkan saja USD/IDR floating diatas 10,000 & cadangan devisa bisa digunakan utk kepentingan lain & BI Rate cukup naik 25 bp, krn inflasi jg blm dlm level mengkhawatirkan.

DOW -32.41 -0.21% 15451.85
S&P -6.24 -0.37% 1676.26
NASDAQ -8.99 -0.25% 3598.5
OIL -0.55 -0.52% 105.77
GOLD +6.9 +0.54% 1290.4
NICKEL +225 +1.64% 13762
TIN +44 +0.23% 19440
CPO -71 -3.05% 2259
TLK 45.15 (11,320)
IDR 10,030

Wednesday IDX Range: 4600 - 4664

BUY: TOTL, WIKA, BSDE, BMRI, ADHI, WSKT, CPIN, UNVR, HRUM, CFIN, SMGR, BMRI, JSMR, PGAS (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)

Wednesday (17/07/2013) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang. CSA®-MNC Sec)

IDX Composite 4600 - 4664
Pola Inverted Hammer diposisi atas terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli.

Wednesday Stocks Pick:
TOTL 1130-1280 (TP 2013F:1440) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas TOTL mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1200

WIKA 1890-2250 (TP 2013F:2850) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas WIKA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1970

BSDE 1450-1570 (TP 2013F:2400). Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas BSDE mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1480

BMRI 8200-8700 (TP 2013F:10650) Pola White Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas BMRI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 8400

ADHI 2975-3300 (TP 2013F:3300). Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas ADHI mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 3100

WSKT 750-850 (TP 2013F:1090) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas WSKT mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 770

CPIN 4625-4800 (TP 2013F:5370) Pola Evening Doji Star terbentuk atas CPIN mengindikasikan perlambatan aksi beli. BUY 4675

UNVR 31000-32500 (TP 2013F:34950) Pola Matching High terbentuk atas UNVR mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 31700

HRUM 2800-2950 (TP 2013F:4500) Pola Short Black Candle terbentuk atas HRUM mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 2850

CFIN 400-420 (TP 2013F:875) Pola Gravestone Doji terbentuk atas CFIN mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 405

SMGR 14800-15500 (TP 2013F:21200) Pola Morning Doji Star terbentuk atas SMGR mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 14950

BBRI 7650-8050 (TP 2013F:10200) Pola White Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 7800

JSMR 6100-6350 (TP 2013F:6475) Pola Spinning Tops diposisi bawah terbentuk atas JSMR mengindikasikan melambatnya tekanan jual. BUY 6150

PGAS 5450-5750 (TP 2013F:6700) Pola Inverted hammer terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan melambatnya tekanan jual. BUY 5500 (ES. CSA®-MNC Sec)

Good morning,

Stocks closed lower Tuesday, with the S&P 500 breaking an 8-day rally, following a mixed batch of economic and earnings reports and as investors hesitated to jump in ahead of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's congressional testimony.

Dow......15451  -32.4  -0.21%
Nasdaq...3598  -9       -0.25%
S&P 500..1676  -6.2   -0.37%
FTSE........6556  -29.8 -0.45%
Dax..........8201  -33.8 -0.41%
CAC40......3851  -27.6 -0.71%
Nikkei.....14599 +92.9+0.64%
HSI.........21312 +9.1  +0.04%
PSE..........6583  -36.4  -0.55%
US10Yr...2.53%  -0.04  -0.39%
VIX.........14.42  +0.63 +4.57%
USD Index 82.50-0.59  -0.59%
Como Indx.288.5+1.68+0.59%
IndoCDS....202.7 -3.93  -1.90%
(5-yr INOCD5)
Oil..........106.45 +0.50 +0.47%
Gold......1291.78+7.59 +0.59%
IDR.......10035(source: yahoo finance)
Euro.....1.3151
TLKM...45.15 -1.62 -3.46%Rp11327
BumiPlc...259.30 suspend+0.00%
EIDO........30.39  +0.02+0.07%
Timah......19340  +45  +0.23%
Nickel......13650  +215 +1.60%
Coal.........76.25   -1.50  -1.93%
CPO........2244RM-31-1.4%$703
Corn.........510.75+7.25 +1.44%
SoybeanOil.45.28+0.00 +0%
Wheat.......669.50+0.00 +0%
DOC(13 Jul)..6750  +0       +0%

(DE/ls- 17-07-13)

-----------------------
• U.S. stocks fell as Coca-Cola Co. slid after earnings declined and a The Fed official called for cuts to stimulus while Bernanke will speak to Congress tomorrow. Treasuries were little changed, the dollar weakened and metals rallied.

• U.S. CPI increased 0.5% after a 0.1% gain the prior month, as gasoline prices increased, a sign inflation is advancing toward The Fed’s goal.

• G20 finance ministers and central bankers, meeting in Moscow this week, will seek assurances from Washington and Beijing that they will not derail global economic recovery.

• China will almost triple domestic output of unconventional gas by 2020 as upstream producers boost exploration after a nationwide price increase.

• Indonesia’s rupiah extended losses beyond 10,000 per dollar for a second day on concern demand for exports will wane as regional growth slows.
RISET CIMB 17 JULI 2013 :

1.Astra International   | Biting the bullet
ASII IJ / ASII.JK | UNDERPERFORM - Downgrade | Rp6,850.00 - Tgt. Rp6,600.00
Mkt.Cap: US$27,449.00m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$25.74m | Free Float: 49.00%
Autos | Author(s): Peter P. SUTEDJA, CFA,

Its auto businesses face intense pressure from the competition while the long-term outlook for LCGC turned out to be less rosy. As its ROE is on a downward trajectory, Astra is heading for a de-rating. We cut our FY13-15 forecasts by 2-4%, mainly on lower low-cost green car (LCGC) volume and auto margins. Given all the negatives, we see that the stock is heading for a de-rating. Hence, we cut our price target to Rp6,600, now based on 2.8x FY14 P/BV or the historical valuation if the cost of equity were to increase to 15.6% vs. our previous valuation basis of 15x CY14 P/E. We downgrade Astra to Underperform from Outperform.

Competition gets tougher...
Margins at the auto dealer level may remain depressed in the foreseeable future, as competition intensifies and dealers resort to their aggressive discounting strategies used 2-3 months ago. Given Astra’s perceived strategy of prioritising market share over margins, the discounting could persist for a while, no thanks to its recent market share decline in Jun. Thus, our auto margin assumptions are lowered by 30bp to a more sustainable level of 3.3% in FY13-14, a level seen back in FY09-10.

... and LCGC is not helping
The regulatory delays have pushed Toyota and Daihatsu’s LCGC launches closer to the expected LCGC launch dates of Astra's competitors. As a result, such launches now may not alleviate the stress on Astra’s market share and dealer discounting. Moreover, the proposed regulations to impose ceiling prices could put dealers at a disadvantage in the long term, given the more volatile margins. We now expect LCGC sales for Astra to amount to only 30,000 units this year, from 70,000 units previously.
De-rating expected
Driven by pressures on the auto and commodities fronts, Astra's ROE is poised to decline to 23-25% in FY13-15 from the 5-year average of 30%. There could be upside potential to our ROE forecasts if Astra 1) leverages up, or 2) pays more dividend, though such moves will contradict its current strategy. Thus, we expect the stock to de-rate to 2.8x FY14 P/BV, which is the historical valuation if the cost of equity were to increase to 15.6% (prev. 13.7%). We believe that Astra's current share price already reflects the higher cost of equity. The limited upside potential underpins our Underperform call.