Komentar "Uncle Ben" didepan House of Representatives Financial Services Committee bahwa Bank Sentral AS tetap berharap melakukan pengurangan dalam jumlah besar aksi pembelian obligasi diakhir tahun 2013 tetapi kapan waktu tepatnya tergantung outlook ekonomi dan menggembirakannya isi laporan Beige Book yang mengatakan ekonomi AS berlanjut tumbuh dalam kecepatan moderate di kurun waktu Juni & awal Juli dengan kondisi manufacturing tumbuh hampir merata dihampir seluruh area AS serta kenaikan saham Bank of America & Yahoo menjadi faktor pendorong kenaikan tipis Dow sebesar +18.67 poin (+0.12%) ditutup pd level 15470.52 disertai kejatuhan The Vix sebesar -4.44% ditutup pada level 13.78 ditengah turunnya data Housing Starts bulan Juni sebesar 9.9% (terendah sejak bulan Agustus 2012) menjadi berjumlah 836,000 unit dibandingkan ekspektasi ekonom bahwa Housing Starts tumbuh sebesar 959,000 unit.
Bursa Indonesia ES perkirakan berpotensi melanjutkan kenaikan dalam range terbatas dalam perdagangan Kamis ditengah penantian release laporan keuangan Q2/2013 dan kekhawatiran USD/IDR bergerak liar setelah tembus diatas level "psikologis" 10,000, yang pastinya akan memberatkan emiten yang punya hutang US Dollar cukup besar serta emiten pengimpor bahan baku dalam USD, walaupun Bank Indonesia telah melakukan intervensi miliaran US Dollar & menaikkan BI Rate sebesar 50 bp.
DOW +18.67 +0.12% 15470.52
S&P +4.65 +0.28% 1680.91
NASDAQ +11.5 +0.32% 3610.
VIX -0.64 -4.44% 13.78
OIL +0.57 +0.54% 106.57
GOLD -16 -1.24% 1274.4
NICKEL +196 +1.42% 13958
TIN +60 +0.31% 19500
CPO +18 .+0.86%. 2277
TLK 45.14 (11,330)
IDR 10,040
Thursday IDX Range: 4622 - 4685
BUY: INTP, WIKA, BBCA, PGAS, GGRM, BSDE, BMRI, WSKT, CPIN, UNVR, HRUM, SMGR, BBRI, JSMR (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Thursday (18/07/2013) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang. CSA®-MNC Sec)
IDX Composite 4622 - 4685
Pola Inverted Hammer diposisi atas terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli.
Thursday Stocks Pick:
INTP 21900-22700 (TP 2013F:29500) Pola Bullish Harami terbentuk atas INTP mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 22300
WIKA 2100-2250 (TP 2013F:2850) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas WIKA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 2150
BBCA 10000-10400 (TP 2013F:11800) Pola Bullish Harami terbentuk atas BBCA mengindikasikan Bullish Harami. BUY 10150
PGAS 5500-5800 (TP 2013F:6700) Pola White Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 5600.
GGRM 45750-47300 (TP 2013F:54050) Pola White Marubozu terbentuk atas GGRM mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 46700
BSDE 1500-1620 (TP 2013F:2400). Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas BSDE mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1550
BMRI 8300-8700 (TP 2013F:10650) Pola Evening Doji Star terbentuk atas BMRI mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 8450
WSKT 760-840 (TP 2013F:1090) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas WSKT mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 780
CPIN 4600-4800 (TP 2013F:5370) Pola Four Price Doji terbentuk atas CPIN mengindikasikan perlambatan aksi beli. BUY 4675
UNVR 32000-33800 (TP 2013F:34950) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas UNVR mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 32850
HRUM 2800-2950 (TP 2013F:4500) Pola Short Black Candle terbentuk atas HRUM mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 2850
SMGR 14850-15400 (TP 2013F:21200) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas SMGR mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 15000
BBRI 7750-8050 (TP 2013F:10200) Pola Two Soldiers terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 7850
JSMR 6100-6400 (TP 2013F:6475) Pola Two White Soldier terbentuk atas JSMR mengindikasikan melambatnya tekanan jual. BUY 6200 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Stocks squeezed out modest gains in choppy trading Wednesday, following comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that monetary policy will remain highly accommodative even as the central bank could start to scale back its bond buying later this year.
Dow......15470 +18.7 +0.12%
Nasdaq...3610 +11.5 +0.32%
S&P 500..1680 +4.7 +0.28%
FTSE........6572 +15.6 +0.24%
Dax..........8255 +53.7 +0.65%
CAC40......3872 +21 +0.55%
Nikkei.....14615 +15.9 +0.11%
HSI.........21372 +59.5. +0.28%
PSE..........6575 -8.8 -0.13%
US10Yr...2.49% -0.04 -1.58%
VIX.........13.78 -0.64 -4.44%
USD Index 82.66+0.16 +0.16%
Como Indx.288 -0.52 -0.18%
IndoCDS....208.3+5.62 +2.77%
(5-yr INOCD5)
Oil..........106.59 +0.14 +0.13%
Gold......1275.55 -16.23-1.26%
IDR.......10073(source: yahoo finance)
Euro.....1.3125
TLKM...45.14 -0.01 -0.02%Rp11367
BumiPlc...259.30 suspend+0.00%
EIDO........30.60 +0.21+0.69%
Timah......19400 +60 +0.31%
Nickel......13860 +210 +1.54%
Coal.........76.40 +0.15+0.19%
CPO........2269RM+24+1.07%$
Corn.........502.00 -8.75 -1.71%
SoybeanOil.45.51+0.23 +0.51%
Wheat.......665.00 -4.50 -0.67%
DOC(13 Jul)..6750 +0 +0%
(DE/ls- 18-07-13)
RISET CIMB 18 JULI 2013 :
Strategy | Rupiah depreciation revisited
NEUTRAL - Maintained
Author(s): Erwan TEGUH, Peter P. SUTEDJA, CFA
The rupiah has depreciated sharply over the past few days, due to a deliberate strategy by the central bank to allow the market to determine the exchange rate, rather than intervening heavily. This has put the rupiah more in line with regional peers’. The past data suggest that for every 1% rupiah depreciation, the downside risk to earnings is about 0.1%. The impact is more muted if the volatility is manageable, i.e. less than 5% swings over the short term. Our analysis shows that the construction and property sectors are relatively less impacted while the telco and retail sectors are the worst hit. We keep JCI at Neutral and our target at 5,075, based on 2.8x CY14 P/BV.
What Happened
The rupiah depreciated sharply by around 2% over the past three days and is now above Rp10,161/US$1. The depreciation is now comparable to what its regional peers have already experienced. This is in line with the central bank’s decision to let the market determine the exchange-rate equilibrium level.
What We Think
While the central bank’s decision to allow the currency to depreciate may create negative sentiment in the near term, especially as it breaches the psychological Rp10k/US$1 level, we believe this is the right strategy. It, however, comes at some expense to growth. In our view, Bank Indonesia (BI) will save on the valuable foreign reserves that have dipped to <US100bn. Also, the weaker current account deficit (CAD) and the spike in inflation do not warrant a stronger than peers’ exchange rate. Over the past 10 years, the Rp/US$ averaged Rp9,388 ±7% (1 s.d.) and the businesses adjusted quite well, albeit with a lag for some. Given the better purchasing power, lower gearing and more importantly the less asset/liability mismatch on the currency front vs. the past 10 years,
bosman pangaribuan bb baru:
we think a 5% p.a. currency swing should be relatively easier to pass on. Our house view is for the rupiah to be at Rp10,000/US$1 by end-13.
What You Should Do
JCI’s valuation is negatively correlated with the exchange rate over the long term. Periods of volatile swings or sharp depreciation in particular dampen the sentiment. Measured depreciation, on the other hand, appears acceptable.
SECTOR COMPARISONS :
CTRA-OUTPERFORM-TP 1,700
JSMR-OUTPERFORM-TP 7,300
WIKA-OUTPERFORM-TP 2,700
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