Riset Saham, Rabu, 5 Juni 2013

KIM ENG(ZP), Toll road: Citra Marga Nusaphala (CMNP.IJ) share price has rallied by 57% over the past one week and moved above our TP of IDR1,500. While in terms of valuation, the company is trading at lower FY13F PER of around 14x compared to Jasa Marga’s (JSMR.IJ, BUY) 24.4x, growth outlook is different. This is mainly due to the number of new projects on the pipelines. Note that CMNP only has one new project of Depok – Antasari which has been delayed since 2005. While progress on the land acquisition process should accelerate in FY13, revenue will not be realized until 2015. As such, we believe that boost to earnings growth will not unfold in the short-term and recent share price rally is unwarranted.
RISET FR CIMB 05 JUNI 2013 :

1.Astra Graphia   | Start-up pains
ASGR IJ / ASGR.JK | NEUTRAL - Downgrade | Rp1,950.00 - Tgt. Rp2,000.00
Mkt.Cap: US$268.20m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$0.47m | Free Float: 23.00%
Ind Goods & Services | Author(s): Erisca WIRAATMADJA, Peter P. SUTEDJA, CFA

ASGR’s mobile banking venture is expected to be deeper in the red this year and its core businesses are likely to face a squeeze from wage hikes, resulting in overall earnings growth deceleration. Furthermore, we think that its share price is fully valued after the YTD rise. We downgrade the stock from outperform to Neutral given the lack of catalysts. We cut our FY13-15 EPS forecasts by 10-11% after factoring in higher losses from AMI and lower margins for the Fuji Xerox document solutions business. This reduces our DCF-based (WACC 13%, LTG 8%) target price.



2.Commodities Strategy   | The Commodity Pulse: Timing the turnaround
Author(s): Daniel HYNES, Warren EDNEY, Jason TODD, CFA

Once again we have seen a broad based sell-off in the second quarter. This year we have seen an unfortunate combination of strong supply growth and weaker-than-expected demand, which has exacerbated the move. But it now appears that the perfect storm is abating. Supply growth is leveling out while on the demand side we expect momentum to start picking up in 2H13. Over the past few years the third quarter has seen strong performances across the sector and we expect the recovery this year to be even stronger, due in part to the heavy selling that has occurred in many markets in recent months. Overall, we maintain a Neutral weighting in commodities, although we see opportunities in several commodities. We continue to favour positioning in the base metals, with copper our standout commodity. This sector has received some heavy selling recently on the back of weaker- than-expected data from China;