Riset Saham Rabu, 1 Mei 2013

RISET FR CIMB 01 MEI 2013 :

1.Ciputra Property | Reaping the fruits
CTRP IJ / CTRP.JK | OUTPERFORM - Maintained | Rp1,160.00 - Tgt. Rp1,450.00
Mkt.Cap: US$733.8m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$1.79m | Free Float: 43.90%
Property Devt & Invt | Author(s): Lydia TOISUTA, Linda LAUWIRA

CTRP’s huge backlog helped drive its core profit up by 2.6x in 1Q13. New project launches and the opening of its long-awaited mall should contribute to future earnings growth. CTRP's prospects remain bright, thanks largely to its ability to manage its cashflow well. Though 1Q13 core profit accounts for 32% and 36% of our and consensus full-year estimates respectively, we deem this to be in-line on seasonality factors (with a large portion of its backlog waiting to be recognised). We lift our DCF-based target price to Rp1,450 to reflect the recent acquisitions and earnings upgrade. Maintain Outperform.


2.Ciputra Development | Show time
CTRA IJ / CTRA.JK | OUTPERFORM -Maintained | Rp1,380.00 - Tgt. Rp1,850.00
Mkt.Cap: US$2153m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$2.44m | Free Float: 61.10%
Property Devt & Invt | Author(s): Lydia TOISUTA, Linda LAUWIRA



3.Bank Bukopin | Improving asset quality
BBKP IJ / BBKP.JK | OUTPERFORM -Maintained | Rp910.00 - Tgt. Rp1,300.00
Mkt.Cap: US$746.1m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$3.02m | Free Float: 40.70%
Banks | Author(s): Erwan TEGUH, Soegiarto HADI, FRM

Bukopin’s 1Q13 results were in line with our expectations and consensus. While loan growth was solid, net profit was boosted by provisioning reversal resulting from improved asset quality. The current low LDR should reverse in the coming quarters, lifting NIM. 1Q13 core EPS (+30% yoy) came in at 22% of our full-year forecast and 24% of consensus numbers. We maintain our EPS forecasts, GGM-based target price and Outperform rating. The stock should be catalysed by its consistent delivery of growth.
4.Semen Indonesia | After the peak
SMGR IJ / SMGR.JK | NEUTRAL -Downgrade | Rp18,400.00 - Tgt. Rp20,000.00
Mkt.Cap: US$11226m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$12.01m | Free Float: 49.00%
Cement | Author(s): Lydia TOISUTA, Linda LAUWIRA



5.AKR Corporindo | Put this on the backburner
AKRA IJ / AKRA.JK | NEUTRAL - Maintained | Rp5,150.00 - Tgt. Rp5,400.00
Mkt.Cap: US$2053m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$4.09m | Free Float: 40.30%
Chemicals - Others | Author(s): Erindra KRISNAWAN, Erisca WIRAATMADJA



6.Adhi Karya | Still more upside than downside
ADHI IJ / ADHI.JK | OUTPERFORM -Maintained | Rp2,975.00 - Tgt. Rp3,300.00
Mkt.Cap: US$551.2m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$3.08m | Free Float: 46.00%
Construction | Author(s): Lydia TOISUTA,



7.Bank Mandiri | Improving returns
BMRI IJ / BMRI.JK | OUTPERFORM -Maintained | Rp10,600.00 - Tgt. Rp12,500.00
Mkt.Cap: US$25441m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$21.10m | Free Float: 32.00%
Banks | Author(s): Erwan TEGUH,



8.Bank Central Asia | Staying prudent
BBCA IJ / BBCA.JK | OUTPERFORM - Maintained | Rp11,000.00 - Tgt. Rp12,000.00
Mkt.Cap: US$27896m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$12.10m | Free Float: 49.00%
Banks | Author(s): Erwan TEGUH,
9.Pembangunan Perumahan | Shifting to third gear
PTPP IJ / PTPP.JK | OUTPERFORM - Maintained | Rp1,420.00 - Tgt. Rp1,600.00
Mkt.Cap: US$706.4m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$2.91m | Free Float: 21.50%
Construction | Author(s): Lydia TOISUTA, Linda LAUWIRA


10.Indofood CBP | Hard-to-swallow valuations
ICBP IJ / ICBP.JK | UNDERPERFORM - Downgrade | Rp11,450.00 - Tgt. Rp10,900.00
Mkt.Cap: US$6859m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$4.06m | Free Float: 20.00%
Food & Beverages | Author(s): Irenne ACHMAD,



11.Telekomunikasi Indonesia | Solid but seasonally weaker 1Q
TLKM IJ / TLKM.JK | NEUTRAL - Maintained | Rp11,700.00 - Tgt. Rp10,900.00
Mkt.Cap: US$24232m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$21.46m | Free Float: 39.50%
Telco - Integrated | Author(s): Kelvin GOH, CFA,



12.Total Bangun Persada | Revving up the growth engine
TOTL IJ / TOTL.JK | OUTPERFORM - Maintained | Rp1,070.00 - Tgt. Rp1,350.00
Mkt.Cap: US$374.8m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$1.28m | Free Float: 38.00%
Construction | Author(s): Lydia TOISUTA, Linda LAUWIRA
*Agung Podomoro akan membangun apartemen di Simprug

FR CIPTADANA :

1.SSIA :
Further, we believe that SSIA’s plan to list its construction business arm (PT Nusa Raya Cipta / NRC) will unleash more value of the Company. Our rough DCF calculation shows that NRC’s optimum valuation could contribute Rp 3 trillion to SSIA’s NAV. This will be translated into SSIA’s total NAV per share of Rp 2,808 (13% higher than our initial calculation of Rp 2,480/share). Hence, with current price of Rp1,580, the indicated discount to NAV for SSIA is 44% which is still cheaper than industrial estate peers (BEST, KIJA, LPCK) with average discount to NAV of 25%.


2.BEST :
After we take into account all of recent land acquisition made by the Company, our rough calculation shows that BEST’s NAV could reached Rp 1,239/share. Having said that, with current price of Rp 990, BEST is trading at 20% discount to NAV (average industrial estate peers are trading at 30% discount to NAV). While we are positive on BEST financial outlook, we begin to see a dear valuation on its share price.




Disclaimer: This broadcast is for informational purposes and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments