What Happened
Based on quick counts, PDIP may have garnered 19% of votes, putting them well ahead of #2 Golkar (15%) and #3 Gerindra (12%), although less than the party’s target of 27%. The election was conducted peacefully and of the 185m eligible voters, 75% turnout was observed, further cementing the legitimacy of the election.
What We Think
Three takeaways: 1) political uncertainty may have picked up with the lower-than-expected victory by PDIP. The probability of a conclusion in the electoral process by Jul is arguably lower; 2) PDIP may have to form a coalition, hence the choice of VP will be determined accordingly; and 3) while the probability of Jokowi eventually winning the presidential bid remains high, his ability to push through more reforms could be in doubt, given the perception of a weaker mandate, which could affect his effectiveness. The next key thing to watch is who Jokowi will pick as his running mate. We think that the rally may fizzle and lead to profit-taking. The near-term risk is whether the rupiah can hold.
What You Should Do
The uncertainty could reduce risk appetite. Sectors perceived to benefit from Jokowi’s potential policies (infrastructure, healthcare and housing) may see more downside for now. We advise investors to take a more defensive stance.
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Thursday (09/04/2014) Early BIRD Fundamental Perspective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Securities)
"Edisi Pemilu Legislatif & Quick Count"
Setelah DJIA gagal rebound Selasa, akhirnya Rabu rebound cukup tajam +181.04 poin (+1.11%) setelah The Fed Minutes Meeting menunjukkan The Fed lebih co-operative ketimbang sebelumnya. Sudah disaksikan bersama hasil hitung cepat atas Pileg 9 April 2014. Ada bbrp catatan penting yg ingin ES garis bawahi & ini akan terkait perkiraan arah IHSG kedepannya. Catatan tsb:
1. Tidak ada parpol pemenang dominan krn PDI-P hanya mengantongi 19.1%, Golkar 14.7%, Gerindra 11.9%;
2. Ternyata Jokowi effect SEDIKIT BERPENGARUH atas peningkatan suara PDI-P yg sebenarnya punya target 27.02% suara;
3. Tidak ada Parpol yg memenuhi persyaratan utk mengajukan capres & cawapres alias harus dibentuk Koalisi;
4. Secara historis, jika suatu pemerintahan dibentuk berdasarkan Koalisi maka tidak maksimal & efektif krn "Kebijakan Transaksional" sering dilakukan;
5. Diawal perdagangan IHSG berpeluang naik tetapi bukan mustahil bisa turun krn market menunggu terbentuknya Koalisi antar partai;
6. Investor akan kembali berfikir logis & rasional serta fokus atas data ekonomi & kinerja emiten yg diperkirakan MELAMBAT seiring perlambatan GDP di tahun 2014;
7. Dampak dari poin no.6, jika IHSG berada dilevel 5,000 atau diatas level tsb, terhitung menjadi MAHAL, sehingga disarankan LAKUKAN aksi PROFIT TAKING, terlebih di bulan Mei, ES perkirakan IHSG akan turun tajam terkait sentimen fundamental, politik & Piala Dunia.
DJIA +181.04 +1.11% 16437.18
NASDAQ +70.91 +1.72% 4183.9
NIKKEI -307.19 -2.1% 14299.69
HSI +246.2 +1.09% 22843.17
STI +5.83 +0.18% 3209.92
OIL +0.89 +0.87% 103.45
GOLD +3.3 +0.25% 1312.4
TIN +50 +0.21% 23,255
NICKEL +240 +1.46% 16,695
CPO +37 +1.44% 2,613
EIDO -0.63 -2.17% $28.44
TLK 40.46 (2,283)IDR 11,285
Thursday IDX Range: 4,880 - 4,950
SELL: ASII
BUY: BJBR, TLKM, INTP, BBRI, BMRI, SMGR, BBCA, GGRM, ACES, BSDE, INCO, UNTR (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Thursday (10/04/2014) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Sec)
IDX Composite 4,880 - 4,950 Pola Evening Doji Star terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan rawan profit taking.
Thursday Stocks Pick:
BJBR 1150-1120 (TP 2014F:1225) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas BJBR mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1160
TLKM 2310-2370 (TP 2014F:2700) Pola Four White Soldiers terbentuk atas TLKM mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 2325
ASII 7875-8175 (TP 2014F:7950) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas ASII mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. SELL 8025
INTP 24625-25450 (TP 2014F:25800) Pola Evening Doji Star terbentuk atas INTP mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 24925
BBRI 10100-10300 (TP 2014F:10500) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 10150
BMRI 10150-10400 (TP 2014F:10500) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas BMRI mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 10225
SMGR 16600-17100 (TP 2014F:18000) Pola Evening Doji Star terbentuk atas SMGR mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 16775
BBCA 10875-11125 (TP 2014F:12750) Pola White Candle terbentuk atas BBCA mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 10925
GGRM 50175-52400 (New TP 2014F:53500) Pola Evening Doji Star terbentuk atas GGRM mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 50725
ACES 775-830 (TP 2014F:980) Pola Bullish Harami terbentuk atas ACES mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 790
BSDE 1630-1690 (TP 2014F:2000) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas BSDE mengindikasikan munculnya aksi beli. BUY 1640
INCO 3070-3185 (New TP 2014F:3300) Pola White Marubozu terbentuk atas INCO mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 3115
UNTR 20600-21350 (TP 2014F:23600) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas UNTR mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 20875
(ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
"Have A Marvelous Thursday & GBU All"
:
Good morning,
»» as of April 9,2014 »»
Dow.........16437 +181.0+1.11%
Nasdaq......4184 +70.9 +1.72%
S&P 500.....1872 +20.2 +1.09%
FTSE..........6636 +44.9 +0.68%
DAX...........9506 +15.6 +0.16%
CAC...........4443 +17.9 +0.40%
Nikkei......14230 -307 -2.10%
HSI..........22843 +246.2+1.09%
Shanghai...2105 +6.95 +0.33%
Kospi.........1999 +5.9 +0.30%
ST Times...3210 +5.8 +0.18%
ASX 200....5464 +53.1 +0.98%
PSE...........6588 closed +0%
Indo10Yr. 8.0053 closed +0%
US10Yr.....2.68% +0 +0%
VIX...........13.82 -1.07 -7.19%
USD Index...79.52 -0.23 -0.29%
Como Indx.309.52 +1.54+0.50%
DJUSCL......139.14 +0.43+0.31%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)
IndoCDS.....167 -2 -1.18%
(5-yr INOCD5)
IDR....11289 closed +0%(blmbrg)
Jisdor...... 11289 closed +0%
Euro........1.3854 +0.0066+0.48%
TLKM..40.46 -1.00 -2.41%Rp2288
ARMS Plc...220.00 -4.50 -2.00%
EIDO......... 28.44 -0.63 -2.17%
EEM.......... 42.28 +0.32 +0.76%
Oil............103.38 +0.82 +0.80%
Gold ......1312.38 +0.58 +0.04%
Timah......23250 +105 +0.45% Nickel......16685 +260 +1.58%
Coal..........72.75 -0.30 -0.41%
CPO.....2615RM +39+1.51% $810
Corn.........502.25 -4.75 -0.94%
SoybeanOil.42.91 +0.80 +1.90%
Wheat.......669.00 -12.00 -1.76%
(DE/ls- 10-04-14)
11.What are its expenditure plans this year ?
SEE MORE :
http://m.idnfinancials.com/
12.How Bukit Asam funds capex in 2014 ?
SEE MORE :
http://m.idnfinancials.com/
13.Why Timah supports higher royalty? What is Timah's expectation on financial performance this year?
SEE MORE :
http://m.idnfinancials.com/
( BERITA SAHAM SELENGKAPNYA SEE http://ListriSamudra.com )
NEWS :
1.REMINDER NICKEL
-Nickel Forecasts Raised by Morgan Stanley on Indonesian Ore Ban
Forecast for 2014 rises ~8% to $15,600 mt, outlook for 2015 increases ~13% to $17,527mt, Morgan Stanley says in report today
-FR CLSA : Mineral negotiation: The govt said that it is ready for to provide mining permit extension for Freeport and Vale Indonesia.
2.DILD
-Intiland wujudkan "Kota Bandara" melalui proyek aeropolis http://t.co/TrAilH6I2e
-Pefindo Beri Peringkat A Untuk Intiland Development (DILD) http://t.co/G6qkWbceHq
3.APLN
-STOCKHOLDERS APLN http://t.co/vBI3fCyb7W
-Pefindo has affirmed its “idA” ratings on APLN its Bond I/2011, Bond II/2012, and Shelf-Registered Bond I/2013.
4.Keterbukaan Informasi Yang Perlu Diketahui Publik Bencana Alam [INKP ] : http://t.co/7WWnQMpqxV
INKP http://t.co/JgaDWgNPvI
5.Kawasaki’s third-biggest plant opens in Bekasi http://t.co/A2gWGnimuv
6.State firms to spend $2.5b on power plant, transmission projects http://t.co/tJVHqgCigp
7.Transaksi material dan transaksi afiliasi PT Cita Mineral [CITA ] ; http://t.co/D8z0AJAyLe
8.SIARAN PERS STABILITAS SISTEM KEUANGAN KUARTAL I 2014 http://t.co/SUnQ3oPkPl
9.Telkom Targets $480 Million in Cost Reductions as It Cuts Jobs - Bloomberg via @BloombergNewshttp://t.co/8NQLSQwQAt
10.REMINDER Why does PTPP need this acquisition? How will the acquisition affect its finance this year?
SEE MORE :
http://m.idnfinancials.com/
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