Setelah DJIA diawal perdagangan sempat naik +197 poin didorong faktor utama mengenai Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) dimana emiten RF Micro Devices setuju mengakuisisi TriQuint Semiconductor senilai US$1.6 miliar sementara emiten Men's Wearhouse menaikkan cash tender offer atas Jos. A. Bank Clothiers, tetapi kenaikan DJIA tersebut dimanfaatkan investor untuk profit taking sehingga diakhir sesi perdagangan DJIA ditutup menguat sebesar +103.84 poin (+0.64%) ditutup dilevel 16207.14 didorong saham sektor energi & keuangan disertai kejatuhan The vix sebesar -3.07% ditutup dilevel 14.23.
Sementara dari dalam negeri, hati nurani ES mengatakan IHSG akan berjalan dalam kisaran terbatas merujuk dua kondisi yang berbeda dimana dari sisi negatif saat ini Bursa Indonesia dalam kondisi overbought & EIDO hanya FLAT sebesar +0.08% sementara sisi positifnya DJIA menguat sebesar +103.84 poin (+0.64%) serta Rupiah yang terus menguat atas USD kelevel Rp 11,640.
DJIA +103.84 +0.64% 16207.14
S&P +11.36 +0.62% 1847.61
NASDAQ +29.56 +0.69% 4292.97
VIX -0.45 -3.07% 14.23
OIL +0.58 +0.57% 102.78
GOLD +13 +0.98% 1336.6
NICKEL -35 -0.24% 14,330
TIN -60 -0.26% 23,080
CPO -14 -0.51% 2,741
EIDO +0.02 +0.08% $25.94
TLK 40.47 (2,355)
IDR 11,640
Tuesday IDX Range: 4,594 - 4,652
BUY: WIKA, AALI, PTPP, SMRA, TINS, AISA, PGAS, AKRA, ICBP, CPIN, LSIP, BBRI (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Tuesday (25/02/2014) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Sec)
IDX Composite 4,594 - 4,652
Pola Black Closing Marubozu didaerah Overbought terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal diwarnai profit taking.
Tuesday Stocks Pick:
WIKA 1980-2065 (TP 2014F:2400) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas WIKA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1995
AALI 23650-24350 (TP 2014F:28650) Pola Bullish Harami Cross terbentuk atas AALI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 23775
PTPP 1385-1445 (TP 2014F:1580) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas PTPP mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 1395
SMRA 1030-1100 (TP 2014F:1050) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas SMRA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1050
TINS 1480-1560 (TP 2014F:1780) Pola White Candle terbentuk atas TINS mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 1500
AISA 1870-1960 (TP 2014F:1900) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas AISA mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 1910
PGAS 4970-5110 (TP 2014F:6200) Pola Matching Low terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan Bearish Continuation. BUY 4990
AKRA 4550-4620 (TP 2014F:4850) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas AKRA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 4580
ICBP 11000-11650 (TP 2014F:12650) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas ICBP mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 11175
CPIN 4090-4260 (TP 2014F:4200) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas CPIN Bullish Continuation. BUY 4160
LSIP 1950-2025 (TP 2014F:2000) Pola Inverted Hammer terbentuk atas LSIP mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 1965
BBRI 9575-9800 (TP 2014F:9800) Pola Inverted Hammer terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 9625 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Lautandhana Securindo----PT Mitra AdiPerkasa (MAPI)-
NEUTRAL– Rp 6,610 per share
Closing the Year with a Good Note
MAPI has reported its unaudited Dec'13 net sales amounted to Rp1.01tn (+24% MoM), bringing in total yearly net sales of 2013 to Rp9.58tn or an increase of 27% YoY, in line with our estimate of Rp9.4tn. The company managed to boost their sales thanks to the solid 10% SSSG and higher‐than‐target store expansion in 2013. This is a good sign for MAPI, considering the tighter competition with many popular new brands coming in 2013 such as H&M and Uniqlo and the weakening of Rupiah particularly in the 2H13.
MAPI has just issued a new bond amounted to Rp 650bn, as a continuation of earlier MAPI Sustainable Bond I Phases I Year 2012. The bond consists of 2 series; 3‐year amounted to Rp370bn with coupon of 10.9% and 5‐year amounted to Rp280bn with coupon of 11.5%. The bond proceeds will be used to refinance their existing floating rate bank loans, to minimize the exposure to the current volatile rate condition.
We are confident that MAPI will still generate promising revenue with an increase of 16.8% YoY attaining to Rp 11.2 tn, while its net profit is projected to increase by 15.9% to Rp 458 bn. Based on our DCF valuation, we generate a fair value of Rp 6,610/share, represents a valuation target of 24.0x PER 2014F. At yesterday closing price, MAPI was traded at 25.4x PER 2014F and our fair value offers ‐5.6% downside potential. Hence, we call MAPI with NEUTRAL recommendation but we suggest investors to buy on weakness if share price is below Rp6,610/share.
The risks:
1) high gearing ratio
2) tight competition in retail industry and
3) recent regulation of
Indonesian Ministry of Commerce No. 70/2013 about obligation of supplying at least 80% local products for a modern store that will be effective starting from 2016. This could become operational risk for the Company since MAPI sells most of its products imported.
Good morning,
U.S. stocks rallied on Monday, lifting the S&P 500 to a intraday record and briefly clearing its 2014 loss, as investors embraced activity on the M&A front and continued to disregard lackluster economic data as largely due to winter weather.
Mergers and acquisitions came into play, with RF Micro Devices agreeing to acquire TriQuint Semiconductor for about $1.6 billion, while Men's Wearhouse hiked its cash tender offer for Jos. A. Bank Clothiers.
Dow.........16207 +103.8+0.64%
Nasdaq......4293 +29.6 +0.69%
S&P 500....1848 +11.4 +0.62%
FTSE..........6867 +27.8 +0.41%
DAX...........9709 +52 +0.54%
CAC...........4419 +38.1 +0.87%
Nikkei......14838 -28 -0.19%
HSI..........22389 -179.7 -0.80%
Shanghai...2077 -37.0 -1.75%
Kospi.........1949 -8.8 -0.45%
ST Times...3106 +5.9 +0.19%
PSE...........6296 -12.0 -0.19%
Indo10Yr. 8.552 +0.624 -0.73%
US10Yr.....2.75% +0.02 +0.59%
VIX...........14.23 -0.45 -3.07%
USD Index...80.22 -0.02 -0.03%
Como Indx.302.20+0.62 +0.21%
DJUSCL......136.50+1.75 +1.30%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)
IndoCDS.....203.99 -2.01 -0.98%
(5-yr INOCD5)
IDR......11649 -95 -0.81%(blmbrg)
Kurs Tengah BI 11728 -62 -0.54%
Euro.....1.3735 -0.011 -0.08%
TLKM..40.47 +0.21+0.52%Rp2373
ARMS Plc...234.50 -8.75 -3.00%
EIDO......... 25.94 +0.02 +0.08%
Oil...........102.83 +0.63 +0.62%
Gold ......1336.62 +12.37+0.93%
Timah......23030 -65 -0.28%
Nickel......14330 +20 +0.14%
Coal..........75.80 -1.05 -1.37%
CPO........2745RM -10 -0.37%$835
Corn.........457.75 -1.25 -0.27%
SoybeanOil.41.03 -0.20 -0.49%
Wheat.......617.00+11.50+1.90%
DOC(24Sep)6750
(DE/ls- 25-02-14)
RISET CIMB 25 FEBRUARI 2014 :
MDRN : Modern Internasional | Growing pains | ADD - Maintained | Rp690.00 - TP: Rp950.00
------------------------------
NEWS EMITEN
1.PTPP bersama dengan Samsung C&T Corporation melaksanakan signing ceremony pembangunan proyek Kutai Coal Terminal senilai US$ 200 juta atau sekitar Rp 2,4 triliun. Signing ceremony proyek tersebut dilaksanakan tanggal 22 Februari 2014
2.PTPP bakal memulai pemancangan tiang pertama (groundbreaking) proyek properti Grand Kamala Lagoon Bekasi pada Maret 2014. Proyek superblok tersebut menempati lahan sekitar 22 hektare (ha) di Bekasi, Jawa Barat.
3.WIKA memperoleh kontrak proyek pengembangan terminal bahan bakar minyak (BBM) milik PT Pertamina (Persero) senilai US$157,16 juta atau setara dengan Rp1,85 triliun.
4.Kapitalisasi BBRI Masuk 6 Besar Asean
1.DBS Singapura senilai US$32,2 miliar,
2.Maybank Malaysia sebesar US$26,2 miliar,
3.OCBC Singapura senilai US$ 26,1 miliar,
4.UOB Singapura senilai US$26 miliar dan
5.BCA yang mencatatkan kapitalisasi sebesar US$22 miliar.
6.BBRI Kapitalisasi saham mencapai US$20,4 miliar atau Rp238 triliun.
7.Public Bank Malaysia dengan kapitalisasi US$20,3 miliar,
8.CIMB US$17,6 miliar dan
9.SCB Thailand yang membukukan kapitalisasi sebesar US$15,4 miliar.
5.PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk dan Dana Pensiun BRI memenangkan sengketa perjanjian pembangunan dan operasi Gedung BRI melawan PT Mulia Persada Persada.
6.Kalangan bankir mulai mengkhawatirkan iuran yang akan diterapkan oleh Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) pada 1 Maret 2014 sebesar 0,03% hingga 0,045% akan menurunkan rasio return on assets(ROA).
7.ISAT baru memulai proses tender atau penawaran 5% sahamnya di PT Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk (TBIG) ke investor strategis. ISAT pun telah memilih penasihat keuangan atau financial advisor yaitu Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML).
8.ISAT akan menarik utang baru senilai Rp 1 triliun di kuartal kedua tahun ini.
THIS WEEK :
25 FEBRUARI
• LELANG SBN
• RUPS BBTN, SQMI, TKGA
• AISA---> KIM ENG
26 FEBRUARI
• RUPS ASJT
27 FEBRUARI
• Indonesia Conf 2014 – Catching the next wave, 24-27 February 2014 (UBS)
RUPS BMRI
28 FEBRUARI
• RUPS CNKO
• TRANSAKSI MATERIAL EXCL :
(Penggabungan dari PT AXIS Telekom Indonesia ke dalam PT XL Axiata Tbk.)
• Perkiraan Tanggal Pernyataan Efektif dari OJK atas : rencana Penggabungan :
20 Januari 2014
• Tanggal terakhir pencatatan pemegang saham dalam : Daftar Pemegang Saham yang berhak hadir dalam RUPSLB dan menjual sahamnya : 6 Januari 2014
Deddy ♓•™:
REMINDER !!!
1.AISA FR KIM ENG
Initiate at BUY with a target price of IDR2,200, representing 13.7x FY15F PER and 30.6% upside. Our TP is based on the stock’s five-year historic mean PER, to better capture the cyclicality of this consumer name. The company’s plans to spin off its palm-oil business and enter the dairy business have been reported in the local newspapers. However, we have not factored these into our forecasts due to the lack of details.
2.SRIL FR KIM ENG/CLSA
SRIL IJ – The company won the German’s & Malaysia’s military uniforms tender supply. The company is reportedly to produce 2.1mn pieces of garment for the German & Malaysia.
Maintain BUY and TP of IDR403 although weakness expected in the short term due to the sad family news.
3.ECII FR CREDIT SUISSE
Our Indonesia Consumer Survey 2014 found that Indonesia remains the second most confident country after Brazil, with 38% respondents expecting better income in the next six months, in line with the increase in minimum wages of an average 16% in 2014. Given higher unemployment and living costs, Indonesians are reluctant to purchase big-ticket items. Our survey found they lean towards smaller ticket discretionaries, in particular, have higher spending intention on LCD TVs, computers and tablets. We re-iterate our OUTPERFORM on ECII with Rp4,500 target price, implying 11.7x FY14E P/E.
4.BASED TA (SIGNAL BUY)
LPCK, CTRS, SMRA, MAIN, AISA, BTPN, BUMI, MIRA, APLN, IMAS, AMAG, SPMA, INPC, MPMX, KARW
------------------------------
1) 24 Feb 2014 Indeks Dow Jones ditutup di level 16,207.14 naik 103.84(0.64%) #kopipagi
2) IHSG ditutup di level 4,623.57 turun 22.58(0.49%) #kopipagi
3) ADHI, GGRM rawan profit taking. #kopipagi
4) BBNI, BBRI, BBTN, BJBR, BJTM potensi profit taking, konsolidasi dalam jangka pendek. #kopipagi
5) SIDO konsolidasi dalam range 890-915. Waspada jika di bawah 890, batasi posisi. #kopipagi
6) AISA potensi lanjutkan uptrend, range hari ini 1900-2000. #kopipagi
7) ASGR range 1840-1900. AUTO capai target #kopipagi kemarin di 3700, +5% sehari, resisten berikutnya 3850. Lindungi
8) CPIN range jangka pendek 4170-4250. Jangka menengah potensi menuju 4500. #kopipagi
9) ICBP range 11100-11500. TINS range 1500-1550. #kopipagi
10) Trading adalah bisnis, pelajari di #TrainingTradingProfits. 22-23 Maret FULL ! Dibuka pendaftaran utk periode selanjutnya ...
11) Trader should look at a chart for what it is & not for what he want it to be. #kopipagi
12) Demikian #kopipagi 25 Februari 2014 semoga mencerahkan, salam profit !
Salam Profit
Ellen May
Disclaimer : Segala rekomendasi untuk beli atau jual bukan sebuah perintahmelainkan sebagai bahan pertimbangan dalam transaksi saham.
Segala keuntungan & kerugian akibat pembelian saham menjadi tanggung jawab pelaku pasar & merupakan bagian dari risiko fluktuasi pasar.
COMMODITIES
(By: D'ORIGIN; Source: BN, CNBC)
•Soybeans rose to a five-month high on speculation that excessive rain in Brazil, the biggest exporter, damaged crops. Wheat also gained, and corn declined.
•Soybean futures for May delivery advanced 1.1 percent to close at $13.75 a bushel at 1:15 p.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade, after touching $13.78, the highest price since Sept. 13.
•Wheat futures for delivery in May gained 1.9 percent to $6.17 a bushel in Chicago, after touching $6.175, the highest for the most-active contract since Dec. 19.
Prices rose on speculation that forecasts for dry weather in the next 30 days may intensify drought in the U.S. Great Plains, reducing yield potential for crops as they emerge from winter dormancy, Gidel said.
Corn futures for May delivery fell 0.3 percent to $4.5775 a bushel on the CBOT.
•West Texas Intermediate crude rose for the first time in three days on speculation that inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, fell last week. The price of Brent gained.
•Gold and silver rose to 16-week highs in New York on speculation that weakening U.S. growth and turmoil in Ukraine will boost demand for the precious metals as a haven.
••••••
Panin Sekuritas Research 25Feb14-
Bursa Amerika ditutup menguat dengan DJIA dan S&P500 masing-masing menguat 0,64% dan 0,62%. S&P500 pada perdagangan intraday sempat mencatat rekor baru.
Penguatan ini didorong oleh saham sektor kesehatan setelah pemotongan layanan kesehatan lebih kecil dari yang diperkirakan serta aksi korporasi Ebay yang akan memisahkan (spin off) Paypal.
Asuransi kesehatan yang melayani program untuk orangtua mendapat penurunan pembayaran sebesar 3,5% pada tahun depan. Angka ini jauh lebih kecil dari perkiraan yang sebesar 6-7%.
Rupiah kemarin terus menguat ke level Rp11.648 dan pagi ini masih menguat ke Rp11.605. IHSG hari ini diperkirakan rebound setelah melemah pada perdagangan kemarin.
Trading BUY : CPIN, BBNI, TBIG, TINS, SMRA, CTRA, BSDE, ADHI, PNLF, PGAS.
©Panin Sekuritas
IPOT TECH CORNER (250214)
IHSG (4.624)
Range: 4.598 – 4.670
---Indeks tertahan resist di 4.670 dan mengalami koreksi teknikal namun masih berada di jalur uptrend. Stochastic deathcross di area overbought sementara RSI dan MACD flat.IHSG diperkirakan akan melemah dengan support di 4.598 sementara resist 4.670.
ICBP (11.200)
Rekomendasi: Spec BUY
---Harga kembali melanjutkan fase uptrend dengan tutup di area upperband namun masih tertahan resist 11.200. Stochastic dan RSI goldencross sementara MACD berpotensi bullish crossover.Spec BUY jika berhasil bertahan diatas 11.200 dengan
resist berikutnya di 11.700. Stoploss jika
break & close dibawah support 10.925.
BBRI (9.650)
Rekomendasi: Sell On Strength
---Weekly chart, sempat break strong resist-
trend line, namun gagal hingga closing. Harga masih uptrend meskipun flat.Dengan kondisi stochastic overbought dan berada di atas upper band maka rawan koreksi.
Target harga di all time high yakni 9.950 sedangkan support terdekat 9.550. Sell jika
closing di bawah 9.450.
ASII (6.775)
Rekomendasi: SELL
---Harga turun dalam 2,9% sehingga break support EMA5 di 6.850. Dengan stochastic
overbought, potensi terjadi koreksi lanjutan masih cukup besar dengan target 6.700 kemudian 6.625. Resist terdekat 6.850.
DISCLAIMER ON
CORPORATE NEWS on 25.02.14
INFRASTRUCTURE
ISAT baru memulai proses tender atau penawaran 5% sahamnya di PT Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk (TBIG) ke investor strategis. ISAT pun telah memilih penasihat keuangan atau financial advisor yaitu Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML).
ISAT akan menarik utang baru senilai Rp 1 triliun di kuartal kedua tahun ini.
PT Indosat Tbk (ISAT) menggandeng Chelsea Football Club, Orange TV, dan MoFutbol.
TBIG mencatatkan kenaikan laba bersih sebesar 47,34% year-on-year(yoy) laba bersih TBIG per akhir Desember 2013
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