Good morning,
U.S. stocks fell sharply and Treasuries rallied on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling triple-digits for a second session and posting its worst week since November 2011, as investors pulled money from emerging markets and other assets viewed as risky.
As Wall Street's faith in some of the world's largest developed countries unraveled, currencies of those nations were hit, with Turkey's lira falling to a record low against the dollar, and Argentina's peso down sharply against the U.S. currency.
Dow.........15879 -318.2 -1.96%
Nasdaq......4128 -90.7 -2.15%
S&P 500.....1790 -38.2 -2.09%
FTSE..........6664 -109.5 -1.62%
DAX...........9392 -239.0 -2.48%
CAC...........4161 -119.5 -2.79%
Nikkei......15392 -304.3 -1.94%
HSI..........22450 -283.4 -1.25%
Shanghai...2054 +12.2 +0.60%
Kospi.........1941 -7.0 -0.36%
ST Times...3076 -24.3 -0.78%
PSE...........6192 +21.5 +0.35%
Indo10Yr. 8.7676+0.0595 +0.68%
US10Yr.....2.74% -0.04 -1.37%
VIX...........18.14 +4.37 +31.74%
USD Index...80.46 +0.03 +0.04%
Como Indx.282.57 +1.25 +0.44%
DJUSCL......131.15 -3.27 -2.43%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)
IndoCDS.....235.70+12.23+5.47%
(5-yr INOCD5)
IDR......12181+16 +0.13%(blmbrg)
Kurs Tengah BI.. 12177 vs 12173
Euro.....1.3678 -0.0017 -0.12%
TLKM..35.17 -0.85 -2.36% Rp2142
ARMS Plc...240.00+3.25 +1.37%
EIDO.........22.64 -0.94 -3.99%
Oil...........96.64 -0.68 -0.70%
Gold ......1270.06 +5.93 +0.47%
Timah......21830 -220 -1.00%
Nickel......14430 -125 -0.86%
Coal.........80.70 -2.10 -2.54%
CPO........ - - -
Corn.........429.50 +0.50 +0.12%
SoybeanOil.37.54 -0.32 -0.85%
Wheat.......565.25 -4.75 -0.83%
DOC(24Sep)6750
(DE/ls- 27-01-14)
Monday (27/01/2014) Early BIRD Fundamental Perspective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Securities)
Setelah sepanjang minggu lalu DJIA turun tajam -3.5% (penurunan mingguan terburuk sejak November 2011), diperkirakan pergerakan DJIA sepanjang minggu ini akan kembali SANGAT VOLATILE berasal dari 4 sumber besar yg akan terjadi, terutama menjelang penerapan pemotongan Paket Stimulus The Fed sebesar US$10 miliar per bulan menjadi US$75 miliar yg akan diumumkan Rabu dlm pertemuan 2 hari The Fed.
Sumber volatility ke-2 berasal dari bbrp emiten besar akan mereleased LK Q4/2013 spt: Senin (Apple, Caterpillar); Selasa (Comcast, DuPont, Ford, Pfizer, Yahoo, American Airlines, AT&T); Rabu (Boeing, Facebook, Chrysler/Fiat, Dow Chemical); Kamis (Google, Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, UPS, Royal Dutch Shell, Harley-Davidson, LVMH, Time Warner Cable, Blackstone, Viacom, Visa) & Jumat (Chevron, MasterCard).
Sumber ke-3 berasal dari release US data ekonomi yg cukup berat spt: Senin (Services PMI & New home sales); Selasa (2-day Fed Meeting, Durable goods, S&P/Case-Shiller & Consumer confidence); Rabu (FOMC statement); Kamis (Initial claims, Real GDP Q4/2013 & Pending home sales) & Jumat (Personal income & Chicago PMI).
Sdgkan sumber ke-4 berasal dari bagaimana kelanjutan krisis mata uang yg terjadi di beberapa negara emerging market spt: Turki Lira, Argentina Peso & Afsel Rand setelah minggu lalu mata uang negara tsb jatuh tejam terendah selama 4-5 thn terakhir.
Khusus hari Senin, ES perkirakan IHSG terkena AKSI JUAL merujuk KEJATUHAN TAJAM EIDO -3.99% & DJIA TURUN TAJAM -318.24 poin (-1.96%) dimana IHSG ES perkirakan berpotensi berada dilevel 4,300-an kembali.
DJIA -318.24 -1.96% 15879.11
OIL -0.42 -0.43% 96.9
GOLD +6.5 +0.51% 1268.8
NICKEL -180 -1.23% 14,490
TIN -145 -0.66% 21,880
CPO -11 -0.42% 2,591
EIDO -0.94 -3.99% 22.64
Monday IDX Range: 4,379 - 4,466
BUY: PGAS, WIKA, SIMP, INTP, ADRO, BBCA, AKRA
BOW: ITMG, ASII, INDF, UNTR, UNVR, SMGR, WIKA, ADHI (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Monday (27/01/2014) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Sec)
IDX Composite 4,379 - 4,466
Pola Black Marubozu terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan berlanjutnya AKSI JUAL.
Monday Stocks Pick:
PGAS 4610-4750 (TP 2014F:5250) Pola Piercing terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 4680
WIKA 1830-1950 (TP 2014F:2000) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas WIKA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1890
SIMP 700-780 (TP 2014F:1000) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas SIMP mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 735
INTP 20650-21600 (TP 2014F:24100) Pola Gravestone Doji terbentuk atas INTP mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 21150
ADRO 990-1060 (TP 2014F:1280) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas ADRO mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 1020
BBCA 10000-10300 (TP 2014F:11700) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas BBCA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 10125
AKRA 4390-4515 (TP 2014F:5300) Pola Spinning Tops terbentuk atas AKRA mengindikasikan munculnya aksi beli. BUY 4450
ITMG 26000-27400 (TP 2014F:30600) Pola Black Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas UNTR mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 26800
ASII 6375-6675 (TP 2014F:7950) Pola Two Black Crows terbentuk atas ASII mengindikasikan Bearish Continuation. BOW 6475
INDF 7175-7350 (TP 2014F:8000) Pola Matching High terbentuk atas INDF mengindikasikan Bearish Revesal. BOW 7250
UNTR 18350-20475 (TP 2014F:23600) Pola Two Black Crows terbentuk atas UNTR mengindikasikan Bearish Continuation. BOW 19600
UNVR 27550-28600 (TP 2014F:31500). Pola Black Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas UNVR mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 28125
SMGR 14250-14850 (TP 2014F:16550) Pola Bearish Engulfing terbentuk atas SMGR mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 14500
ADHI 1730-1805 (TP 2014F:1950) Pola Short Black Candle terbentuk atas ADHI mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 1760 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
31 Januari
-Fed puts tapering plan on hold for now...
debt negotiations is scheduled in mid-Jan and early-Feb, respectively. As such, Ben Bernanke may decide to pass the baton to Janet Yellen as his term ends on 31 Jan 2014.
-New foreign-owned miners’divestment regulation to be published by end January
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry plans to publish a new regulation by the end of this month that will set the continuation of mining contract of work renegotiation. One of the planned regulations will stipulate foreign-owned upstream mining companies to at least divest 51% of their stakes while integrated miners are allowed to divest 40% of their ownerships.
(Kontan, Bisnis Indonesia)
-Personal IncomeDec, Personal SpendingDec, PCE Prices - Core Dec, Employment Cost IndexQ4, Chicago PMI Jan, Michigan Sentiment -
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