Jumat, 24 Jan 2014

Friday (24/01/2014) Early BIRD Fundamental Perspective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Securities)

Mengecewakannya data awal ekonomi China Purchasing Managers’ Index dilevel 49.6 yang direleased oleh HSBC & Markit yang mengindikasikan terjadinya kontraksi dibandingkan data final bulan Desember dilevel 50.5 & lebih rendah ketimbang konsensus ekonom dilevel 50.3 serta tajamnya kejatuhan saham China yang diperdagangkan di Wall Street setelah US SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) memerintahkan menghentikan sementara kegiatan auditing unit usaha perusahaan top accounting China menjadi fakot negatif pendorong DJIA turun -175.99 poin (-1.07%) ditutup dilevel 16197.35 disertai kenaikan tajam The Vix sebesar +7.24% ditutup dilevel 13.77.

Sampai dengan perdagangan Kamis (23/01), sudah 102 emiten Blue Chips yang tergabung dlm Indeks S&P 500 melaporkan LK Q4/2013, 63% diantara emiten tsb melaporkan earnings lebih tinggi dari perkiraan awal (artinya setara dengan rata-rata historis pertumbuhan earnings 63%), sementara 66% diantara emiten tsb melaporkan revenue lebih tinggi dari perkiraan awal (artinya lebih tinggi dari rata-rata historis pertumbuhan revenue 61%)

Setelah sebelumnya 4 hari berturut-turut investor menikmati kenaikan, hari ini gilirannya investor harus melakukan PROFIT TAKING karena ES memperkirakan Jumat ini IHSG berpeluang TURUN merujuk kejatuhan tajam 3 digit DJIA sebesar -175.99 poin (-1.07%) serta EIDO turun sebesar -1.79%.

DJIA -175.99 -1.07% 16197.35
S&P -16.40 -0.89% 1828.46
NASDAQ -24.13 -0.57% 4218.87
VIX +0.93 +7.24% 13.77
OIL +0.64 +0.66% 97.37
GOLD +23.4 +1.89% 1262
NICKEL -126 -0.85% 14,669
TIN -175 -0.79% 22,025
CPO +27 +1.05% 2,602
EIDO -0.43 -1.79% 23.60
TLK 36,02 (2,190)
IDR 12,160

Friday IDX Range: 4,455 - 4,510

BUY: ITMG, BBRI, ASII, INDF, BBCA, UNTR, ADRO, UNVR, AALI, SMGR, WIKA, LSIP, INTP, ADHI (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)

"Have a Stunning Friday and GBU All"


Friday (24/01/2014) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Sec)

IDX Composite 4,455 - 4,510
Pola Evening Doji Star terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan munculnya aksi profit taking.

Friday Stocks Pick:
ITMG 27000-28300 (TP 2014F:30600) Pola Four White Soldiers terbentuk atas UNTR mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 27500

BBRI 8500-8800 (TP 2014F:9800) Pola Long Legged Doji terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 8650

ASII 6725-6975 (TP 2014F:7950) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas ASII mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 6775

INDF 7200-7450 (TP 2014F:8000) Pola Four White Soldiers terbentuk atas INDF mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 7250

BBCA 10000-10500 (TP 2014F:11700) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas BBCA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 10150

UNTR 20450-21650 (TP 2014F:23600) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas UNTR mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 20900

ADRO 980-1095 (TP 2014F:1280) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas ADRO mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 1015

UNVR 28275-29075 (TP 2014F:31500). Pola Spinning Tops terbentuk atas UNVR mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 28525

AALI 22200-23800 (TP 2014F:25750) Pola Spinning Tops terbentuk atas AALI mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 22900

SMGR 14775-15200 (TP 2014F:16550) Pola Bullish Harami terbentuk atas SMGR mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 14850

WIKA 1855-2005 (TP 2014F:2000) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas WIKA mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 1900
LSIP 1650-1855 (TP 2014F:2000) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas LSIP mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1775

INTP 20950-21625 (TP 2014F:24100) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas INTP mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 21250

ADHI 1780-1850 (TP 2014F:1950) Pola Bullish Harami terbentuk atas ADHI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 1795 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)


RISET CIMB 24 JANUARI 2014 :


1.Chinese trade data for December and CY13

Author(s): Warren EDNEY +61 (3) 9631 1012, Michael EVANS, Amit RAMDEV

Raw material imports were the feature of Chinese trade in 2013. Traders and consumers purchased ore and concentrate to convert into metal in China or stockpile for future use to offset the impact of Indonesian export bans. On the energy front, growth in LNG imports overshadowed imports of thermal coal but more due to increases in utilization than a focus on reducing pollution, given that lignite imports were up 11%. Early in 2013 the outlook for Chinese demand for raw materials for the year was muted to bleak depending on the analyst’s view of the policy changes with the new leadership and how low growth would go. GDP growth for 2013 was 7.7%, exceeding the government’s 7.5% target. Trade outcomes were mixed but certainly not bearish. Imports of iron ore (+10%), coking coal (+41%) and LNG (+23%) were the positive stand outs. Overall it was the base metals which suffered, with copper metal imports down 6% (although concentrates were up 29%) and aluminium metal imports down 8% (although bauxite was up 79%).

-Ore stocks may be full
China has been importing significant amounts of bauxite and nickel laterite from Indonesia ahead of unprocessed mineral export bans. However, while bauxite imports were up 47% yoy in December they were down 31% from the peak in imports in September. Similarly, nickel laterite imports were down 17% on November’s peak. It would appear that consumers have enough ore to tide themselves over or are finding it hard to finance further purchases.

-Aluminium strength
(See ur email)

-LNG growth to continue


Good morning,

U.S. stocks declined sharply on Thursday, with the Dow extending losses into a third session, after measures of U.S. and Chinese manufacturing disappointed and as Wall Street considered quarterly reports from companies including McDonald's and Netflix.

Dow.........16197  -176    -1.07%
Nasdaq......4219  -24.1   -0.57%
S&P 500.....1829  -16.4   -0.89%

FTSE..........6773  -53.0   -0.78%
DAX...........9631  -89.0   -0.92%
CAC...........4281  -44.0   -1.02%

Nikkei......15696  -125.1  -0.79%
HSI..........22734   -348.4  -1.51%
Shanghai...2042   -9.6      -0.47%
Kospi.........1948   -22.8    -1.16%
ST Times...3100    -33.5    -1.07%
PSE...........6170  +30.2    +0.49%

Indo10Yr. 8.7081+0.1066 +1.24%
US10Yr.....2.77% -0.09      -3.04%

VIX...........13.77 +0.93     +7.24%

USD Index...80.43  -0.77   -0.95%
Como Indx.281.29 +0.76 +0.27%
DJUSCL......131.42  -2.34   -1.71%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)

IndoCDS.....223.47 +3.47 +1.58%
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR......12165+22 +0.18%(blmbrg)
Kurs Tengah BI.. 12173  vs 12149
Euro.....1.3695 +0.0151  +1.11%

TLKM..36.02 -0.85 -2.31% Rp2190
ARMS Plc...236.75 -3.25 -1.35%
EIDO.........23.58    -0.45 -1.87%

Oil...........97.36    +0.66  +0.68%
Gold ......1262.77 +25.12 +2.03%
Timah......22050   +0        +0%
Nickel......14555    -190     -1.29%
Coal.........80.70    -2.10    -2.54%
CPO........   -             -           -
Corn.........429.00 +2.75  +0.65%
SoybeanOil.37.86 +0.02  +0.05%
Wheat.......570.00 +8.75  +1.56%
DOC(24Sep)6750

(DE/ls- 24-01-14)


Coal
China imported 38.2Mt of coal in December, a new monthly record, up 8.9% yoy and 10Mt more than November. Net annual coal import growth flattened out marginally to a 14% yoy increase to 320Mt versus the 66% growth experienced in 2012 when there was a significant decline in exports.
Thermal coal imports were 24Mt in December, up 32% from November and a monthly record. The contributors to the rise were lignite imports, which spiked 43% to 7.59Mt, and sub-bituminous coal imports, which were up 44% to 4.4Mt; both were new record levels. We believe the increase in low calorific coal imports was driven by the proposed NDRC regulations on imported coal quality, which set a minimum threshold for imported lignite of 16.5MJ/kg (3940kcal/kg) and 18MJ/kg (4300kcal/kg) for other coal. For 2013 thermal
coal imports were 212Mt, up 6% yoy, consisting of 152.3Mt of bituminous and sub-bituminous coal and 59.7Mt of lignite. We do not anticipate a dramatic decline in overall thermal coal imports in 2014 if the NDRC is successful in altering regulations, as power generators cannot readily increase the quality of the coal which is burnt in their boilers (it will be more a case of substitution by domestic suppliers). Our estimate is that the import tonnage loss for 2014 may be as low as 10Mt.
Coking coal imports continue to be volatile, with the December mom change +21% to 8Mt. Imports of coking coal end the year at 75.4Mt and up 41% on 2012. Australia continues to be the largest supplier of coking coal to China, with a 40% (30.1Mt) share of the import market and of the top 5 supplying countries Russia showed the highest growth in exports to China, up 76% yoy to 8.4Mt. Mongolian exports to China were down 19% yoy to 15.4Mt, despite being half the price.
Coke exports were 750kt, up 10% mom. Coke exports for 2013 were 4.7Mt for 2013, up 360% on 2012 but still significantly lower than the 10Mtpa plus exported prior to 2009


Laba bersih ULTJ 2013 diprediksi bisa mencapai Rp402 miliar naik 13,88 persen dibanding 2012 senilai Rp353 miliar. Ekspansi ULTJ dengan mencari mitra strategis dengan perusahaan multinasional juga memberi peluang bagi produk ULTJ untuk menjangkau lebih banyak lokasi dan pelanggan.

TINS mengincar penjualan 4.500 mton logam timah di Q1/14. Di awal tahun ini, harga logam timah sudah naik menjadi US$ 22.100-US$ 23.400 per mton, naik dari pertengahan tahun lalu yang anjlok hingga di bawah US$ 20.000 per mton.

Mayoritas pemegang saham merestui rencana SCPI untuk menjadi perusahaan tertutup atau go private. Persetujuan tersebut didapatkan pada RUPSLB hari ini. Serta akan membayar kepada pemegang saham publiknya di harga premium, Rp 100.000 per lembar. Nilai tersebut lebih besar 244,8% daripada harga pasar tertinggi di pasar regular 90 hari terakhir sebelum usulan go private 22 Maret 2013 lalu, yakni Rp 29.000 per lembar. Penawaran tendernya dapat dilakukan pada 24 Februari sampai 25 Maret dengan tanggal pembayaran 4 April. SCPI pun memperkirakan bisa mendapat persetujuan delisting dari BEI pada 8 Mei dan OJK di 21 Mei.

15 perusahaan yang jumlah saham di bawah 7,5% dari jumlah saham dalam modal di setor : BNII COWL DVLA BNGA SMAR PSAB MITI SMCB BYAN HMSP ADMF RBMS TPMA DNET GDYR.

Freeport akan menggandeng ANTM untuk membangun smelter. Alokasi dana investasi dalam pembangunan ini minimal senilai US$750 juta dan saat ini baru dalam tahap studi kelayakan.

BTPN mengembangkan Program Daya yang bertujuan membantu para nasabah untuk memiliki akses finansial serta memahami finansial sehingga setiap nasabah bisa memiliki kemampuan untuk mengelola keuangan mereka dan menumbuhkan usahanya.

Harga CPO menyentuh level tertinggi dalam 2 pekan terakhir di tengah spekulasi pelemahan ringgit bakal mengerek ekspor Malaysia. Kontrak CPO untuk pengiriman April melonjak 1,1% menjadi 2.603 ringgit (Rp9,51 juta) per ton di Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, Kamis (23/1/2014).