Cadangan Devisa RI Naik Rp 13 Triliun dalam sebulan
Bank Indonesia (BI) baru saja merilis jumlah cadangan devisa Indonesia pada akhir Oktober 2013. Cadangan devisa mengalami peningkatan US$ 1,3 miliar (Rp 13 triliun) dari US$ 95,7 miliar di akhir September 2013 menjadi US$ 97 miliar.
"Posisi cadangan devisa tersebut setara dengan 5,5 bulan impor atau setara dengan 5,3 bulan impor dan pembayaran utang luar negeri Pemerintah," kata Direktur Eksekutif Departemen Komunikasi BI, Peter Jacobs, Rabu (6/10/2013).
Menurut Peter, BI memandang jumlah tersebut cukup aman untuk mendukung ketahanan sektor eksternal dan berada di atas standar kecukupan internasional.
Peningkatan jumlah cadangan devisa pada Oktober 2013 didorong oleh penerimaan dari ekspor migas bagian pemerintah.
"Seiring dengan kenaikan cadangan devisa tersebut, respons positif pelaku pasar terhadap kebijakan yang ditempuh Bank Indonesia dan Pemerintah telah mendorong aliran masuk modal asing ke instrumen SBI dan SBN yang pada gilirannya berkontribusi pada meredanya tekanan nilai tukar rupiah di Oktober 2013," tutup Peter.
Berikut data cadangan devisa di 2013:
Januari 2013 : US$ 108,8 miliar
Februari 2013 : US$ 105,2 miliar
Maret 2013 : US$ 104,8 miliar
April 2013 : US$ 107,2 miliar
Mei 2013 : US$ 105,1 miliar
Juni 2013 : US$ 98,1 miliar
Juli 2013 : US$ 92,6 miliar
Agustus 2013 : US$ 93 miliar
September 2013 : US$ 95,7 miliar
Oktober 2013 : US$ 97 miliar
Thursday (07/11/2013) Early BIRD Fundamental Perspective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Securities)
Kuatnya pertumbuhan earnings & revenue emiten & statement dari The Fed bahwa selama US Unemployment Rate belum mencapai 6.5% & inflasi mencapai 2.5% maka The Fed TIDAK AKAN melakukan taperring-off menjadi katalis pendorong DJIA menguat kembali tertinggi sepanjang masa setelah Rabu kembali naik tajam +128.66 poin (+0.82%) ditutup dilevel 15746.88 diiringi kejatuhan The Vix sebesar -4.52% ditutup dilevel 12.67.
Sekitar 423 dari 500 emiten dalam Indeks S&P 500 yang telah merelease earnings LK Q3/2013, 68.3% diantaranya mengalahkan estimasi earnings awal analis (lebih tinggi dibandingkan rata-rata 63% sejak thn 1994), dimana saat ini analis memperkirakan earnings tumbuh rata-rata 4.2% (dengan asumsi sisanya setara kejadian diatas), tetapi masih dibawah ekspektasi 1 Juli 2013 sebesar 8.5%. Sedangkan untuk revenue, 53.5% diantaranya mengalahkan estimasi revenue awal analis (lebih rendah dibandingkan rata-rata 61% sejak thn 2002)
Dari dalam negeri, kombinasi kenaikan tajam DJIA sebesar +128.66 poin (+0.82%) plus penguatan EIDO:US +0.92% ES harapkan bisa menjadi katalis bagi perdagangan di BEI Kamis ini ditengah perlambatan GDP Q3/2013 yang hanya tumbuh 5.62% & investor asing yang terus membukukan Net Sell ytd mencapai Rp -16.1 triliun serta turunnya harga nikel & timah masing-masing sebesar -1.64% & -0.74%.
DJIA +128.66 +0.82% 15746.88
S&P +7.52 +0.43% 1770.49
NASDAQ -7.92 -0.20% 3931.95
VIX -0.60 -4.52% 12.67
OIL +1.51 +1.62% 94.88
GOLD +9.8 +0.75% 1317.9
NICKEL -235 -1.64% 14,110
TIN -170 -0.74% 22,825
CPO -33 -1.28% 2,547
EIDO +0.23 +0.92% 25.12
TLK 39.99 (2,278)
IDR 11,395
Thursday IDX Range: 4,410 - 4,495
BUY: BBRI, ASII, PGAS, KLBF, SMGR, LSIP, UNTR, PTBA, CPIN, UNVR, INDF, AKRA, MEDC, MYOR (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
"Have a Splendid Thursday & GBU All"
Thursday (07/11/2013) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Sec)
IDX Composite 4,410 - 4,495
Pola White Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal.
Thursday Stocks Pick:
BBRI 7650-8050 (TP 2013F:7800) Pola Bullish Harami Cross terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 7700
ASII 6400-6700 (TP 2013F:6900) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas ASII mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 6500
PGAS 4900-5100 (TP 2013F:6550) Pola Bullish Harami terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 4950
KLBF 1280-1350 (TP 2013F:1600) Pola two White Soldiers terbentuk atas KLBF mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1300
LSIP 1630-1710 (TP 2013F:1700) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas LSIP mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1650
UNTR 17600-18700 (TP 2013F:19200) Pola White Marubozu terbentuk atas UNTR mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 18200
PTBA 11400-11900 (TP 2013F:14200) Pola Spinning Tops terbentuk atas PTBA mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 11550
CPIN 3725-4000 (TP 2013F:4250) Pola White Marubozu terbentuk atas CPIN mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 3800
UNVR 30200-31450 (TP 2013F:37050). Pola White Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas UNVR mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 30700
INDF 6550-6850 (TP 2013F:8100) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas INDF mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 6650
AKRA 4750-5050 (TP 2013F:4850) Pola White Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas AKRA mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 4825
MEDC 2425-2625 (TP 2013F:3500) Pola White Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas MEDC mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 2475
MYOR 28800-29600 (TP 2013F:36500) Pola Bullish Harami terbentuk atas MYOR Whitemengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 29150 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Good morning,
U.S. stocks mostly climbed on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average notching another record close, as investors bought into optimism that the Federal Reserve would continue its stimulus longer than thought, ahead of economic reports this week on the economy and the labor market.
Equities are doing well "under the belief that the Federal Reserve is willing to push tapering off a bit," said Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Banyan Partners LLC, of thinking the central bank would hold off on reducing its $85 billion in monthly asset purchases.
Dow.........15747 +128.7 +0.82%
Nasdaq......3931 -7.9 -0.20%
S&P 500.....1770 +7.5 +0.43%
FTSE..........6742 -5.1 -0.08%
DAX...........9041 +31.7 +0.35%
CAC...........4287 +33.6 +0.79%
Nikkei......14337 +111.9 +0.79%
HSI..........23037 -2.0 -0.01%
Shanghai...2140 -17.6 -0.82%
Kospi.........2014 -0.3 -0.01%
ST Times...3205 -0.25 -0.01%
PSE............6477 -42.3 -0.65%
Indo10Yr. 7.972%+0.169 +2.16%
US10Yr.....2.64% -0.02 -0.83%
VIX...........12.67 -0.60 -4.52%
USD Index80.49 -0.22 -0.27%
Como Indx.273.9 +0.90 +0.33%
DJUSCL......140.26-2.04 -1.43%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)
IndoCDS.....226.0 +5.37 +2.43%
(5-yr INOCD5)
Oil.........94.86 +1.44 +1.54%
Gold....1318.17 +7 +0.53%
IDR......11410 +54 +0.48%(blmbrg)
Kurs Tengah BI 11414 vs 11389
Euro.....1.3519 +0.0047 +0.35%.
TLKM....39.22 -0.11 -0.27%Rp2237
BumiPlc...214.00+2.75 +1.30%
EIDO........25.12 +0.23 +0.92%
Timah......22700 -55 -0.24%
Nickel......14090 -210 -1.47%
CPO..........2547 -33 -1.24% $800
Corn.........421.25 -3.75 -0.88%
SoybeanOil.41.14 -0.01 -0.02%
Wheat.......653.25 -2.75 -0.42%
DOC(24Sep)6750
(DE/ls- 07-11-13)
Market Research - First Asia Capital (PC) 7/11/2013
* Perdagangan kemarin berlangsung bervariasi dalam rentang konsolidasi. IHSG berhasil ditutup menguat terbatas 26,47 poin (0,6%) di 4449,760. Namun asing kembali mencatatkan nilai penjualan bersih Rp.324,72 miliar. Hal ini dipicu perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi domestik 3Q13 yang hanya 5,6%, turun dari 2Q13 sebesar 5,8%. Angka ini juga dibawah proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi pemerintah tahun ini sebesar 5,9%.
* Sebelumnya sentimen negatif juga dipicu meningkatnya defisit neraca perdagangan September hingga USD660 juta. Memburuknya kondisi perekonomian Indonesia tersebut membuat nilai tukar rupiah kembali melemah mencapai Rp.11414/USD kemarin. Namun rebound terbatas saham Astra, Indofood dan Unilever berhasil membuat IHSG kemarin ditutup di teritori positif.
* Sementara tadi malam Wall Street kembali melanjutkan tren bullish. Indeks DJIA dan S&P masing-masing menguat 0,82% dan 0,43% ditutup di 15746,88 dan 1770,49. Penguatan terutama dipicu optimisme The Fed akan menunda pengurangan stimulusnya menyusul masih lemahnya prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi AS dan antisipasi keluarnya sejumlah data ekonomi akhir pekan ini. Data The Conference Board’s Index of US Leading Indicators September naik 0,7%, di atas konsensus sebesar 0,6% turut mengangkat Wall Street.
* Perdagangan hari ini, IHSG diperkirakan berpeluang menguat terbatas dipicu kondusifnya pergerakan pasar saham global. Aksi beli selektif diperkirakan akan kembali melanda sejumlah saham big-caps. IHSG akan menguji resisten di 4500 sedangkan level support di 4410.
IHSG : S1 4410 S2 4390 R1 4470 R2 4500
Saham Pilihan
TLKM 2225-2350 TB, SL 2150
INCO 2400-2525 TB, SL 2375
BMTR 1800-1920 TB, SL 1730
RALS 1220-1290 BoW, SL 1180
BBRI 7550-7900 Buy, SL 7150
PGAS 4950-5150 TB, SL 4875
INDF 6500-6900 TB, SL 6400
UNVR 30400-32000 TB, SL 29800
CTRS 1980-2175 Buy, SL 1960
Disclaimer On
First Asia Research
ON TAP THIS WEEK
(By: D'Origin; Source: BN, CNBC)
Tuesday:
US ISM non-manufacturing index,
U.K. PMI Services, EU Economic Growth Forecasts, EU PPI, HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics issue their Chinese services performance of manufacturing indexes,
Wednesday:
Leading economic indicators, Japanese firms Toyota Motor and Suntory will be reporting earnings,
September trade figures for Australia are scheduled for release around 8:30am SIN/HK,
Thursday:
weekly jobless claims, gross domestic product, consumer credit,
Friday:
nonfarm payrolls, personal income and spending, Core PCE price index,Reuters/UMich consumer sentiment
NOTE:
The nation’s top Communist Party officials meet in Beijing Nov. 9-12 to map out a blueprint for reform, with China set for its slowest economic growth this year in more than two decades. Premier Li Keqiang reiterated that the government must balance the need for economic restructuring with a reasonable pace of growth to ensure sufficient employment.
¤¤¤¤¤¤
ON CORPORATE ACTIONs
06 November
• Lelang SBN
• RUPSLB Island Concepts Indonesia, BWPT
• Cum Right Issue Bank OCBC NISP Tb 171:500 1200 06-11 07-11 11-11 13-11 19-11 19-11
• Akhir perdagangan Right Issue LCGP 3:1 (350)
• Cum Dev TKIM 25
07 November
• RUPSLB IATA
• Cum Dev RUIS Rp 7,5
08 November
• Cum Dev BRNA Rp 50
• CUM DEV MAIN RP 36
• CUM DEV MLBI RP 9500
• CUM RIGHT ISSUE CHANDRA ASRI PETROCHEMICAL (TPIA) RASIO 500:36 (6750)
• Listing GRAND KARTECH 163.640.000 SAHAM RP 275
¤¤¤¤¤¤
TRENDING NEWs & STOCK PICKs
(By: D'Origin; Source: BN, CNBC, Research)
¤ CIMB(YU) Economic Update | 3Q13 GDP – growth slowdown persists |GDP growth slowed to 5.6% in 3Q (+5.8% in 2Q), meeting consensus expectations but missing ours, as higher private and government consumption only partially offset the greater drag from net exports. The high inflation and interest-rate environment has weighed on growth. We expect the economy to bottom in 1H14 and retain our real GDP growth forecast of 5.9% for this year and 5.6% in 2014. We do not expect BI to hike the policy rate at its upcoming meeting on 12 Nov.
¤ MANSEK(CC), PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk (AISA.IJ)| Strong 9M13 result | AISA recorded strong 9M13 result with net profit up by 59%YoY to Rp251bn mainly driven by inorganic and organic growth post-Taro acquisition and rice mill expansion. It comprised 87% of consensus, beat market expectation. Align with the company’s business strategy, food manufacturing has improved significantly. Based on consensus, AISA is trading at 15.9x – 12.1x P/E13F-14F. Not rated.
¤ CIPTADANA(KI) TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA – TP 2,400/sh (HOLD) | Awaiting for More Catalyst
We participated on PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM)’s conference call today (Nov 6, 2013) to discuss about its 9M’13 satisfying result. Overall, TLKM’s 9M’13 figures are on-track with our estimates as it achieved 74.5% and 77.3% of our projection for revenue and net profit respectively. We also see a rising revenue contribution from data segment to 21.8% in 9M’13 from 12.4% in 2010, which is considerably substantial and marked the change to a different competition field, wherein we believe that Telkomsel (TLKM’s major subsidiary) will still dominate the market. We reckon TLKM as an excellent defensive play. However, due to lack of catalyst and limited upside potential we maintain our Hold recommendation for TLKM and a 12-months SOTP based target price of Rp 2,400/share.
¤¤¤¤¤¤
07 November
• RUPSLB IATA
MCI Update (07 November 2013):
7:20AM:
DJ(+0.82% );
NK(-0.18% );
IDR 11395;
Gold 1318.09;
CPO 2560(-1.5% );
EUR 1.3510;
JPY 98.62
Pg ini bursa reg mlemah.IHSG cend. menguat
7:21AM:
Nikel 14044(-1.6% );
Timah 22827(-0.8% );
Coal Newc $80.6(+0.1% );
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar