Senin, 7 Oct 2013, Merah tipis, monitor siap2 untuk beli

Good morning,

Stocks finished higher Friday, recovering from the previous day's sharp losses and with the Dow reclaiming its footing above 15000 mark, despite Washington's ongoing budget stalemate.

Dow.........15073 +76.1 +0.51%
Nasdaq......3808 +33.4 +0.89%
S&P 500.....1691 +11.8 +0.71%
FTSE..........6454 +4.8   +0.08%
DAX...........8623 +25.1 +0.29%
CAC...........4164 +36.3 +0.88%
Nikkei......14024  -132.9 -0.94%
HSI..........23138  -75.9   -0.33%
PSE...........6390  +2.8   +0.04%
Indo10Yr. 8.117%+0.018+0.23%
US10Yr.....2.65% +0.04  +1.53%
VIX..........16.74    -0.93.  -5.26%
USD Index80.122 +0.358 +0.45%
Como Indx.286.45+0.90  +0.32%
DJUSCL......130.20+2.55  +2.00%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)
IndoCDS....245.13 -1.915 -0.79%
(5-yr INOCD5)
Oil.........103.84    +0.53  +0.51%
Gold....1311.09     -5.81   -0.44%
IDR......11381 -149-1.29%(blmbrg)
Kurs Tengah BI  11556 vs 11535
Euro.....1.3558 -0.0063  -0.46%
TLKM....38.77  +0.61 +1.60%Rp2206
BumiPlc...214.75+2.25   +1.06%
EIDO........24.05  +0.40   +2.04%
Timah......23650 +925    +4.07% !!!    Nickel......13870 +365    +2.70% !!!
Coal.........78.30  +0.05   +0.06%
CPO.......2317RM +15 +0.65 $729
Corn.........443.25 +4.00  +0.91%
SoybeanOil.40.24  -6.60   -1.36%
Wheat......687.00  -2.25    -0.33%
DOC(24Sep)6750

(DE/ls- 07-10-13)

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Market Research - First Asia Capital (PC) 7/10/2013

* Minimnya insentif positif di pasar membuat IHSG akhir pekan kemarin ditutup turun 29,296 poin (0,66%) di 4389,347. Selama sepekan IHSG terkoreksi 0,78% dengan transaksi rata-rata harian yang minim hanya mencapai Rp.2,63 triliun di Pasar Reguler dibandingkan pekan sebelumnya yang mencapai Rp.4,22 triliun.
* Rendahnya minat bertransaksi lebih dipicu faktor eksternal terkait dengan penghentian sementara pemerintahan Obama menyusul belum adanya kesepakatan antara Kongres dengan Gedung Putih terkait dengan anggaran dan batas utang di AS. Sedangkan faktor positif sepekan kemarin lebih digerakkan dengan sentimen domestik, dimana inflasi Indonesia September minus 0,35%. Namun redahnya tekanan inflasi September dibayangi dengan berita yang kurang menggembirakan akhir pekan kemarin dimana Bank Dunia merevisi turun prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia tahun ini dari 5,9% jadi 5,6% dan tahun depan jadi 5,3% dari proyeksi sebelumnya 6,2%.
* Sementara Wall Street akhir pekan kemarin berhasil rebound, dimana indeks DJIA dan S&P masing-masing menguat 0,51% dan 0,71%. Penguatan di Wall Street tersebut lebih dipicu respon positif pelaku pasar atas pernyataan elite partai republik yang menguasai DPR AS yang tidak akan membiarkan AS default. Pernyataan ini meredahkan kekhawatiran sepekan terakhir atas penyelesaian isu pagu utang AS menjelang tenggat waktu 17 Oktober mendatang.
* Perkembangan positif tersebut akan memberikan ruang bagi aksi beli selektif hari ini. IHSG diperkirakan berpeluang menguat terbatas dengan resisten di 4430. Sedangkan support di 4370.       

IHSG : S1 4370  S2 4340  R1 4430  R2 4470

Saham Pilihan

SMGR 12700-13500 BoW, SL 12400
INCO 2300-2500 BoW, SL 2250
ASRI 590-660 TB, SL 580
SMRA 930-1030 TB, SL 900
KIJA 245-270 TB, SL 240
TLKM 2200-2350 TB, SL 2150
PTPP 1150-1220 TB, SL 1100
ITMG 27400-29000 BoW, SL 27200
ASII 6300-6600 TB, SL 6150

Disclaimer ON
First Asia Research

 LOTS Trading Club™ | lots.co.id
Lautandhana Securindo | YJ
Global Market Statistics 7 Oct 2013

DJIA.........15072 +76.1 +0.51%
S&P 500....1690 +11.8 +0.71%
Nasdaq......3808 +33.4 +0.89%
FTSE..........6454 +4.84 +0.08%
CAC...........4164 +36.3 +0.88%
DAX...........8623 +25.1 +0.29%
Nikkei......14024  -133.  -0.94%
HSI..........23138  -75.9  -0.33%
US10Yr.......2.64 +0.04 +1.54%
EUR........1.3557  -0.01  -0.48%
IDR..........11381  -149.  -1.29%
EIDO.........25.05 +0.50 +2.04%
TLK...........38.77 +0.61 +1.60%
BUMI Plc...214.7 +2.25 +1.06%
CrudeOil...103.8 +0.53 +0.51%
Gold..........1311  -5.97  -0.45%
Tin...........23650 +925. +4.07%
Nickel......13875 +365. +2.70%
Coal.........78.30 +0.05 +0.06%
CPO......RM2317 +15.0 +0.65%
DOC..........6750 (24 Sep 2013)

Global Market Snapshot
=================
• U.S. stocks rebounded on Friday, but major stock ended the week lower as a shutdown continued for a fourth day, with no sign of an end.

• Obama expects Congress will reach an agreement to raise the debt limit in time to avert a default. Boehner said that U.S. on path to default if Obama won't negotiate.

• The Congress has forecast that U.S. would not start defaulting on its obligations, which include everything from debts to Social Security checks, until October 22.

• China's 2014 metals demand seen brightening, as Beijing steps up building of power networks, rail lines and low-cost homes, while domestic production is likely to be squeezed by tight scrap supply.

• Tin jump to a 6-mo high on prediction supplies will be limited as Indonesia challenges LME as the venue for setting the global tin benchmark price. Tin demand will beat supply by 3k tons this year and 2k tons in 2014, Barclays estimates.

• Dr. Doom remained upbeat on Indonesia’s long-term potential, despite worries over the CAD. It should be seen differently as it was driven by booming, productive investments needed for high and sustainable economic growth in the future.