Rabu 16 oktober 2013, rupiah kembali 10 rb kuat

Wednesday (16/10) Early BIRD Fundamental Perspective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Securities)

Ditengah cukup menggembirakannya release LK Q3/2013 atas 35 emiten (J & J, Coca-Cola, Intel, Yahoo) dlm komponen indeks S&P 500 & optimisme pelaku pasar bahwa Lawmakers akan setuju mengakhiri partial gov't shutdown & menaikkan debt ceiling US$16.7 triliun tetapi saat bersamaan volatility naik seiring deadline 17 Oktober semakin mendekati dgn hanya terlihat sedikit kemajuan serta turunnya pertumbuhan New York state's manufacturing sector bln Oktober kelevel terendah sejak Mei 2013 ttp business optimism tetap kuat mjd faktor DJIA turun -133.25 poin (-0.87%) ditutup dilevel 15168.01 disertai kenaikan tajam the Vix +16.12% ditutup dilevel 18.66

Sekitar 31 dr 500 emiten dlm Indeks S&P 500 yg telah merelease earnings LK Q3/2013, 52.8% diantaranya mengalahkan estimasi earnings awal analis (jauh dibawah rata-rata 63%), dimana saat ini analis memperkirakan earnings tumbuh rata-rata 4.2% (dgn asumsi sisanya setara kejadian diatas), ttp masih dibawah ekspektasi 1 Juli 2013 sebesar 8.5%.

Merujuk IHSG yg selama 1 minggu lalu naik +130.56 poin (+2.97%) & diiringi Net Sell Asing Rp -302.6 miliar shg selama 41 minggu Net Sell asing membengkak menjadi Rp -13.66 triliun serta kejatuhan DJIA -0.87%, The Fitch Rating Agency menempatkan "AAA" US rating dalam "negative" watch & turunnya EIDO:US -2.78%, unfortunately, menjadi faktor negatif penggerak IHSG dalam pembukaan perdagangan setelah tutup selama 2 hari.

DJIA -133.25 -0.87% 15168.01
S&P -12.08 -0.71% 1698.06
NASDAQ -21.26 -0.56% 3794.01
NIKKEI +36.8 +0.26% 14441.54
HSI +118.2 +0.51% 23336.52
KOSPI +20.69 +1.02% 2040.96
OIL -1.31 -1.28% 101.1
GOLD +4.1 +0.32% 1280.7
NICKEL -5 -0.04% 14,000
TIN -250 -1.07% 23,075
CPO Unch 2,362
EIDO:US -0.75 -2.78% 26.24
TLK 40.14 (2,280)
IDR 11,360

Wednesday IDX Range: 4,502 - 4,561

BUY: ITMG, ASII, SMGR, INDF, KLBF, BBNI, INTP, UNTR, PGAS, UNVR, BBCA, LSIP, TINS, ICBP, WIKA (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)

Wednesday (16/10/2013) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Sec)

IDX Composite 4,502 - 4,561
Pola Four Price Doji terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan perlambatan aksi beli.

Wednesday Stocks Pick:  ;
ITMG 30800-33500 (New TP 2013F:35000) Pola Four White Soldiers terbentuk atas ITMG mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 32500

ASII 6750-7150 (TP 2013F:6900) Pola Hammer terbentuk atas ASII mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 6850

SMGR 13950-14600 (TP 2013F:15050) Pola White Candle terbentuk atas SMGR mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 14200

INDF 6850-7200 (TP 2013F:8100) Pola White Marubozu terbentuk atas INDF mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 6950

KLBF 1310-1370 (TP 2013F:1600) Pola Bullish Harami Cross terbentuk atas KLBF mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 1330

BBNI 4425-4800 (TP 2013F:5000) Pola White Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas BBNI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal.  BUY 4500

INTP 19650-20550 (TP 2013F:24400) Pola White Short Candle terbentuk atas INTP mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 19800

UNTR 18400-19400 (TP 2013F:19200) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas UNTR mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 18650

PGAS 5300-5600 (TP 2013F:6700) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 5400

UNVR 30500-31300 (TP 2013F:37050). Pola White Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas UNVR mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 30700

BBCA 10500-10900 (TP 2013F:10400) Pola Evening Doji Star terbentuk atas BBCA mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 10650

LSIP 1420-1510 (TP 2013F:1700) Pola Evening Doji Star terbentuk atas LSIP mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli.  BUY 1440.

ICBP 10900-11300 (TP 2013F:13000) Pola Short White Candle terbentuk atas ICBP mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 11050

WIKA 1850-1930 (TP 2013F:2200) Pola Evening Doji Star terbentuk atas WIKA mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 1880 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks and U.S. index futures rose while the yen weakened against the dollar after Senate leaders said they’d resume negotiations on raising the debt limit as the deadline looms. Rates on Treasury bills due Oct. 24 extended their climb and gold retreated.

 Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures jumped 0.9 percent by 9:12 a.m. in Tokyo after the gauge snapped a four-day rally in the U.S. Rates on Treasury bills due Oct. 24 rose three basis points to 0.51 percent after surging to a record high yesterday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 0.1 percent, set for a five-month high. The yen lost 0.4 percent to 98.58 per dollar and New Zealand’s dollar climbed. Gold snapped a two-day advance while copper rallied 0.2 percent.

 With the U.S.’s borrowing authority set to lapse tomorrow, leaders in the Senate said they’d reopen talks after the House delayed voting on a plan stripped of Republican conditions to resume funding to the government and increase the debt ceiling. Fitch Ratings put the world’s biggest economy on watch for a possible credit downgrade citing lawmakers’ inability to forge a deal...Hajar kanan indonesia\=D/
Good morning,

Stocks closed sharply lower in volatile trading Tuesday, with the Dow and S&P 500 snapping their four-day rally, as ongoing worries over the impasse over the debt ceiling continued to weigh on the markets.

Shortly after the market close, Fitch Ratings put the U.S. government's AAA credit rating on "rating watch negative," saying that the standstill on the debt ceiling negotiations risks undermining the effectiveness of the country's government and political institutions.

Dow.........15168  -133.3 -0.87%
Nasdaq......3794  -21.3   -0.56%
S&P 500.....1698  -12.1   -0.71%
FTSE..........6549 +41.5  +0.64%
DAX...........8804 +80.6  +0.92%
CAC...........4256 +33.1  +0.78%
Nikkei......14441 +36.8  +0.26%
HSI..........23361 +118.2 +0.51%
PSE...........6443  -47.1    -0.73%
Indo10Yr. 8.017% -0.097 -1.19%
US10Yr.....2.72%  +0.03  +1.08%
VIX...........18.66   +2.59. +16.12%
USD Index80.44   +0.18  +0.23%
Como Indx.286.31-1.16    -0.40%
DJUSCL......135.53-0.63    -0.46%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)
IndoCDS....214.00 -19.32 -8.32%!!!
(5-yr INOCD5)
Oil.........101.21     -1.20   -1.17%
Gold....1280.69     -1.66   -0.13%
IDR......10904 -44  -0.40%(blmbrg)
Kurs Tengah BI  11475 vs 11542
Euro.....1.3526    +0.0002  +0.01%
TLKM....40.14 -0.05 -0.12%Rp2188
BumiPlc...202.75  -10.75   -5.04%
EIDO........26.16    -0.83     -3.08%
Timah......22975
Nickel......13940
CPO.......2363RM -17 -0.72 $746
Corn.........443.50  +6.50   +1.48%
SoybeanOil.40.66  +0.27   +0.67%
Wheat......685.75   -6.75     -0.97%
DOC(24Sep)6750

(DE/ls- 16-10-13)
1.      Setelah sempat naik 0.4%  pd 14 Okt, kemarin 15 Okt indeks Dow Jones kembali turun -133.25  (-0.87%) di level 15168,01 #kopipagi

2.      Bursa AS melemah krn ketidakpastian akan pagu utang AS & tidak tercapainya kesepakatan antara Obama & Kongres. #kopipagi

3.      Fitch Ratings mengatakan bahwa AS berpotensi untuk mengalami penurunan peringkat utang dari AAA #kopipagi

4.      Pada perdagangan terakhir tgl 11 Oktober 2013 sebelum libur, IHSG ditutup di 4,519.91 menguat 33.23point (0.74%) #kopipagi

5.      EIDO 16 Oktober 2013 ditutup di 26.16 turun 0.83 point atau -3.08%. #kopipagi

6.      ITMG potensi uji resisten 33750 sd 34000, waspada profit taking di area tersebut. #kopipagi

7.      CTRS buy jika berhasil kembali di atas 2000, resisten terdekat 2150, R jangka menengah 2500. Stop loss jika breakdown 2000. #kopipagi

8.      UNTR TINS PTBA potensi aktif, status speculative. #kopipagi

9.      Permasalahan debt ceiling di AS juga dikhawatirkan oleh investor dalam negri. IHSG cenderung konsolidasi. #kopipagi

10.  Demikian #kopipagi 16 Oktober 2013 tetap waspada di tengah volatilitas. Salam profit, Ellen May