"EDISI KEJATUHAN IDX & IDR"
Wall Street kembali TURUN dihari ke-4 dmn Dow TURUN -70.73 poin (-0.47%) ditutup dilevel 15081.47, shg selama 4 hari Dow turun -440.27 poin (-2.87%), diikuti kenaikan The Vix +5.08% ditutup dilevel 15.1 didorong lebih kecilnya earnings Macy's, Wal-Mart & Kohl's serta lemahnya outlook Cisco.
Sdh berulang kali ES melalui Early BIRD mengatakan salah satu concern pemicu kejatuhan IHSG, khususnya Senin yg turun tajam mencapai -255.14 poin (-5.584%) diiringi Net Sell Asing Rp -1.78 triliun shg Net Sell Asing YTD mencapai Rp -8.41 triliun, adlh USD/IDR yg kian lama kian melemah & BELUM ES dengar bgmn cara pemerintah mengatasinya.
Singkatnya ada 2 faktor penyebab kejatuhan tajam USD/IDR & IDX dlm perdagangan Senin yakni: Fundamental & Sentiment. Termasuk kategori Fundamental yakni: 1. Ekspektasi inflasi Agustus yg masih tinggi; 2. Tdk dinaikkannya BI Rate; 3. Terjadinya defisit anggaran, defisit Perdagangan & defisit Current Account yg mencapai 4.4% di Q2/2013; 4. Perlambatan GDP; 5. Thailand yg mulai masuk resesi serta rencana pengurangan paket stimulus The Fed.
Sdgkan yg bersifat Sentimen memperparah kejatuhan USD/IDR & IDX yakni Komentar bbrp pejabat pemerintah dari Presiden, Menteri & level dibawahnya, yg tdk kondusif & tdk pada tempatnya bahkan cenderung menunjukkan ketidak-mengertian mereka akan kondisi market sebenarnya.
So,yg ES tunggu adlh bagaimana penyelesaian pertanyaan diatas & mengharapkan agar para pejabat pemerintah sebaiknya "Puasa Berbicara" yg tidak kondusif.
DJIA -70.73 -0.47% 15010.74
S&P -9.77 -0.59% 1646.06
NASDAQ -13.69 -0.38% 3589.09
OIL -0.45 -0.42% 107.01
GOLD -5.4 -0.39% 1365.6
NICKEL -83 -0.56% 14,796
TIN -25 -0.11% 21,900
CPO +30 +1.27% 2393
TLK 39.56 (10,420)
IDR 10,535
Tuesday IDX Range: 4,236 - 4,463
BOW: MAPI, MYOR, JSMR, UNVR, ITMG, HRUM, INCO, ANTM, CTRA, AKRA, INDF, KLBF, TOTL, INTP (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Tuesday (20/08/2013) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang. CSA®-MNC Sec)
IDX Composite 4,236 - 4,463
Pola Three Black Crows terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan Bearish Continuation dihari Selasa.
Tuesday Stocks Pick:
MAPI 5650-6000 (TP 2013F:8000) Pola Morning Doji Star terbentuk atas MAPI mengindikasikan melambatnya tekanan jual. BOW 5750
MYOR 32700-33400 (TP 2013F:36500) Pola Four Price Doji terbentuk atas MYOR mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BOW 32850
JSMR 5750-6050 (TP 2013F:6500) Pola Black Marubozu terbentuk atas JSMR mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 5800
UNVR 28700-30250 (TP 2013F:37050) Pola Black Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas UNVR mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 29100
ITMG 26850-28750 (TP 2013F:35000) Pola Black Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas ITMG mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 27450
HRUM 2650-2875 (TP 2013F:3350) Pola Black Candle terbentuk atas HRUM mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 2700
PGAS 5300-5600 (TP 2013F:6700) Pola Black Marubozu terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 5350
INCO 1860-2025 (TP 2013F:2300) Pola Black Marubozu terbentuk atas INCO mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 1900
ANTM 1210-1320 (TP 2013F:1530) Pola Black Candle terbentuk atas ANTM mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 1250
CTRA 1030-1150 (TP 2013F:1650) Pola Two Black Crows terbentuk atas CTRA mengindikasikan Bearish Continuation. BOW 1070
AKRA 4800-5050 (TP 2013F:4850) Pola Four Price Doji terbentuk atas AKRA mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BOW 4850
INDF 6150-6700 (TP 2013F:8100) Pola Two Black Crows terbentuk atas INDF mengindikasikan Bearish Continuation. BOW 6250
KLBF 1290-1410 (New TP 2013F:1600) Pola Three Black Crows terbentuk atas KLBF mengindikasikan Bearish Continuation. BOW 1330
TOTL 850-970 (TP 2013F:1440) Pola Black Marubozu terbentuk atas TOTL mengindikasikan Bearish Reversal. BOW 890 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Good morning,
Stocks kicked off the week with a thud, with the Dow and S&P 500 logging their first four-day losing streaks this year, as Treasury yields hit a two-year high amid ongoing worries over when the Federal Reserve might start to reduce its asset purchases.
Dow.........15010 -70.7 -0.47%
Nasdaq......3589 -13.7 -0.38%
S&P 500....1646 -9.8 -0.59%
FTSE..........6466 -34.3 -0.53%
DAX...........8366 -25.7 -0.31%
CAC...........4084 -39.9 -0.97%
Nikkei......13758 +108+0.79%
HSI..........22463 -54.1 -0.24%
PSE..........6525 -54.8 -0.83%
Indo10Yr. 8.30% +0.23 +2.85%
US10Yr.....2.88%+0.05 +1.94%
VIX..........15.10 +0.73 +5.08%
USD Index81.26 +0.006+0.01%
Como Indx.293.1+0.58 +0.20%
IndoCDS....271.6+31.6 +13.16%
(5-yr INOCD5)
Oil..........106.93 -0.53 -0.49%
Gold......1365.90 -10.67 -0.f7%
IDR.......10533 (bloomberg)
Euro.....1.3333
TLKM.39.58-4.35-9.90%Rp10422
BumiPlc...214.0 -6.00 -2.73%
EIDO........25.88 -2.08 -7.44%
Timah......21800 -25 -0.11%
Nickel......14690 -80 -0.54%
Coal.........77.10 -1.00 -1.29%
CPO.......2338RM+23+0.99%$711
Corn.........485.50+22.00+4.
SoybeanOil.43.78+0.62 +1.44%
Wheat.......653.50+10.00+1.55%
DOC(1 Agt)..4000 +0 +0%
(DE/ls- 20-08-13)
-----------------------
THIS WEEK :
20 Agustus
-Lelang SBN
-Cum Dev MTSM RP 3
-Cum Dev IMAS 29
-Cum Dev DIRE Ciptadana Properti 1.9579
21 Agustus
-MBA Mortgage Index, Existing Home Sales, Crude Inventories, FOMC Minutes
22 Agustus
-Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, FHFA Housing Price Index, Leading Indicators, Natural Gas Inventories
23 Agustus
-RUPSLB/T : DNET
-New Home Sales
25 Agustus
-Telekomunikasi Indonesia through its subsidiary Telkom International Malaysia, is going to commercialize its MVNO business scheme in Malaysia in September 2013.
----------------------
RISET FR CIMB 20 AGUSTUS 2013 :
(please read carefully !)
1.Strategy | Between a rock and a hard place
NEUTRAL - Maintained
Author(s): Erwan TEGUH, Peter P. SUTEDJA, CFA
The market lost a massive 5.6% in Monday, purportedly on the back of a worse-than-expected 2Q CAD. Foreign investors capitulated, selling some US$260m of equity in two days. Sentiment has turned even more negative. Will domestic confidence hold up? The sell-off was purportedly sparked by: 1) BI’s decision to hold the rate steady and 2) worse-than-expected 2Q CAD. Defensive stocks, in particular those with strong FCF and low gearing, are viewed as a safe haven. Our top picks are PGAS, INDF and TLKM. We keep our bottom-up YE13 5,050 index target and Neutral market stance.
WHAT HAPPENED
The JCI lost over 8% in two days of trading with the index hitting a new low for the year, and is now in the negative zone YTD (-0.1% in Rp, -8.8% in US$). Foreign net sold over US$260m in two days, following last Thursday’s decision not to increase the BI rate and last Friday’s worse-than-expected 2Q13 CAD. The rupiah breached Rp10.6k/US$ before retreating due to a likely intervention from BI, while the benchmark 10-year bond hit 8.4%, holding up better than the rupiah or the JCI.
WHAT WE THINK
Foreign sentiment will probably remain poor at best for some time, given the QE tapering theme growing more apparent as Sep approaches. Domestic sentiment and confidence will also be tested. Fundamentals are not as bad, but would play second fiddle. Macro data should improve by Sep with inflation likely after Jul’s peak and the 22-44% fuel price increase on 22 Jun producing an incrementally positive impact on the CAD. The bottom line is, sentiment should improve by Sep/Oct. For now, volatility will remain. BI may introduce more short-term measures which are likely to have a minimum impact. We think that guarding domestic sentiment is key.
WHAT YOU SHOULD DO
The JCI hit triple bottom in three successive months, which is normally associated with a reversal pattern by chartists. It is now at 2.5x P/BV, pricing in bond yields at some 9.2%, and comparable to the lows over the last three years. The earnings momentum may remain negative for another month, in our estimate, though the risk-return may be more rewarding.
ADD :
Assuming the past three years lows of 2.5x P/BV and 11.5x P/E, The JCI should be at 4,120 and 4,315, all else equal, based on our estimate.
Our Key Picks :
1.AALI- NEUTRAL-TP 19,000
2.ASGR-OUTPERFORM-TP 1,570
3.CTRA-OUTPERFORM-TP 1,700
4.INDF-OUTPERFORM-TP 8,400
5.KLBF-OUTPERFORM-TP 1,650
6.LPPF-OUTPERFORM-TP 14,300
7.PTPP-OUTPERFORM-TP 1,800
8.PGAS-OUTPERFORM-TP 6,100
9.SMGR-OUTPERFORM-TP 18,000
10.TLKM-OUTPERFORM-TP 14,500
2.ASIAN Banks Weekly | Indonesian current account strain; SBI stock of the week
OVERWEIGHT - Maintained
Author(s): Trevor KALCIC, CFA, Hans FAN, CFA, Lydia XU
This week, we highlight Indonesia’s rapidly deteriorating balance of payments position and BI tightening measures, which may have to be stepped up to control the current account. SBI is our stock of the week. In stock news, we raised earnings for CMB, Philippine Business Bank, CBA and ANZ. We cut our rating on AMMB and cut earnings on CTBC and SBI.
Indonesian CA strain
Indonesia’s 2Q13 current account deficit widened to 4.4% of GDP (vs. -2.6% prior) – the widest level in 17 years. The deficit was partly counterbalanced by an improvement in the financial account, thereby leaving the BOP with a deficit of 1.1% of GDP (-3.0% in the prior quarter). A structural CA deficit, hesitant capital flows and downward currency pressure could heighten pressure on Bank Indonesia to tighten monetary policy further. In fact, sentiment will further be hurt by BI’s actions last week to cool credit supply by raising the LDR requirements for Indonesian banks.
3.Vale Indonesia | Worth more than a nickel
INCO IJ / INCO.JK | OUTPERFORM - Upgrade | Rp1,920.00 - TP: Rp2,400.00
Mkt.Cap: US$1,829.00m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$1.72m | Free Float: 19.10%
Mining | Author(s): Erindra KRISNAWAN, CFA, Laura TASLIM
Besides driving a better growth profile vs. its peers, INCO's on-track output growth and cost-saving plans should also continue to buffer against weak nickel prices. The prospect of the resolution of the CoW renegotiation by end-2013 could remove a regulatory overhang. We cut our 2013-15 EPS by 24-59% to incorporate our lower nickel price assumptions. We lower our target P/BV multiple to 1.3x (from 1.7x) and target price to reflect our lower ROE projection – this is in line with the historical ROE / P/BV of 0.07x.
bosman pangaribuan bb baru:
4.Indika Energy | Ceasing coverage
INDY IJ / INDY.JK | Rp570.00
Mkt.Cap: US$284.70m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$0.69m | Free Float: 29.40%
Coal Mining | Author(s): Erindra KRISNAWAN, CFA, Laura TASLIM
We cease coverage on Indika Energy (INDY) due to the lack of interest in the stock. Our last rating was an Underperform with a target price of Rp1,120, based on 8.8x CY14 P/E (20% discount to the Indonesian coal sector target P/E).
5.Bumi Resources | Ceasing coverage
BUMI IJ / BUMI.JK | Rp435.00
Mkt.Cap: US$866.40m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$2.75m | Free Float: 75.00%
Coal Mining | Author(s): Erindra KRISNAWAN, CFA, Laura TASLIM
We cease coverage on Bumi Resources (BUMI) due to the lack of interest in the stock. Our last rating on the stock was an Underperform with a target price of Rp575, based on 8x 2014 P/E, 1 s.d. below its historical valuation.
6.Borneo Lumbung Energi | Ceasing coverage
BORN IJ / BORN.JK | Rp245.00
Mkt.Cap: US$411.50m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$0.51m | Free Float: 25.00%
Coal Mining | Author(s): Erindra KRISNAWAN, CFA, Laura TASLIM
We cease coverage on Borneo Lumbung Energy (BORN) due to the lack of interest in the stock. Our last rating on the stock was a Neutral, with a target price of Rp680 (based on 10x FY14 P/E, 10% discount to the Indonesian coal sector P/E target).
-----------------------
NEWS :
1.PT Steel Pipe Industries of Indonesia Tbk (ISSP) : Semester I 2013 laba bersih perusahaan naik 85% menjadi Rp138,09 miliar dari sebelumnya Rp74,58 miliar.
(SUMBER : KONTAN)
2.JP Morgan memproyeksi, 4-5 minggu ke depan, harga emas berpeluang reli menjadi US$ 1.420 per ounce.
(SUMBER : KONTAN)
bosman pangaribuan bb baru:
3.PT Krakatau Steel (Persero) Tbk (KS) melalui anak usahanya PT Krakatau Industrial Estate Cilegon (KIEC) siap melepas 40 hektar sampai 60 hektar lahan untuk keperluan investasi perusahaan asal Korea Selatan (Korsel), Honam Petrochemical. Namun, pihak dari Honam belum merespons kesiapan dari KS.
(SUMBER : DETIK)
4.Kebijakan BI menaikkan giro wajib minimum (GWM) sekunder baru-baru ini dari 2,5 persen menjadi 4 persen dan menurunkan batas atas target LDR menjadi 92 persen dari sebelumnya 100 persen bertujuan untuk memperlambat pertumbuhan kredit dan memperkuat ketahanan bank dalam menghadapi krisis.
Dampak kebijakan BI itu kecil terhadap 4 emiten bank besar, PT Bank Mandiri Tbk, PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk, PT Bank Central Asia Tbk dan PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk.
(SUMBER : IPOT)
5.APLN : catat penjualan properti alias marketing sales sebesar Rp 3,68 triliun di akhir Juli 2013, naik 27% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun lalu.
(SUMBER : DETIK)
-----------------------
Disclaimer: This broadcast is for informational purposes and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar