Wall Street kembali TURUN dihari ke-5 dmn Dow TURUN -7.45 poin (-0.05%) ditutup dilevel 15003.29, shg selama 5 hari Dow turun -447.72 poin (-2.92%), diikuti penurunan The Vix -0.99% ditutup dilevel 14.95 didorong mulai menurunnya yield US 10 year T-note dari level tertinggi 2 tahun terakhir ditengah penantian kepastian kapan Program Stimulus akan berakhir.
IHSG juga kembali TURUN dihari ke-4 sebesar -138.535 poin (-3.21%) dalam perdagangan Selasa (20/8) diiringi Net Sell Asing Rp -1.96 triliun shg Net Sell Asing YTD mencapai Rp -10.37 triliun, sehingga dalam 4 hari kejatuhan perdagangan (Kamis s/d Selasa) IHSG TURUN TAJAM -524.75 poin (-11.6%) atau turun -22% dari level tertinggi IHSG di bln Mei, dimana kejatuhan Selasa disebabkan USD/IDR bergerak liar melemah tajam & menyentuh level 10,800 sebelum ditutup dilevel Rp 10,720 sehingga YTD Rupiah turun -10.85% membuat kinerja Rupiah terburuk ke-2 di Asia, setelah India Rupee (INR) yg turun YTD -16.09%, selanjutnya diikuti MYR YTD -7.8%, PHP -6.8% & THB -3.43%.
ES memperkirakan jika belum ada kejelasan kebijakan apa yg akan ditempuh atas USD/IDR tsb & ekonomi secara keseluruhan (inflasi, BI Rate & defisit), bukan mustahil USD/IDR melemah menuju 11,000 & jika itu terjadi IHSG berpeluang turun kembali dibawah level 4,000.
ES berharap pemerintah cepat menanggapi hal tsb karena saat ini berkejaran dengan waktu, kekhawatiran snowball effect & sebelum kepercayaan investor hilang atas market Indonesia.
DJIA -7.45 -0.05% 15003.29
S&P +6.31 +0.38% 1652.37
NASDAQ +24.5 +0.68% 3613.59
OIL -1.86 -1.74% 105
GOLD +5 +0.37% 1370.7
NICKEL -61 -0.41% 14,735
TIN. unch 21,900
CPO -13 -0.54% 2380
TLK 38.79 (10,395)
IDR 10,720
Wednesday IDX Range: 3,968 - 4,269
BUY: BMRI, ASII
BOW: ITMG, BBCA, UNVR, TLKM, WIKA, AKRA, JSMR, KLBF, INDF, HRUM, CPIN, ICBP (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
"Have a Stunning Wednesday & GBU All"
Good morning,
Stocks eased off their highs in the final minutes of trading to close narrowly mixed Tuesday, with the Dow logging its fifth-straight day lower. But losses were limited as handful of retailers and as bond yields receded from two-year highs.
Investors also awaited further indications over the timing of the Federal Reserve's widely expected reduction in asset purchases.
Dow.........15003 -7.8 -0.05%
Nasdaq......3614 +24.5 +0.68%
S&P 500.....1652 +6.3 +0.38%
FTSE..........6453 -12.3 -0.19%
DAX...........8300 -66.3 -0.79%
CAC...........4029 -55.1 -1.35%
Nikkei......13397 -361.8 -2.63%
HSI..........21970 -493.4 -2.20%
PSE..........6526 closed +0%
Indo10Yr. 8.40% +0.10 +1.21%
US10Yr.....2.81% -0.07 -2.43%
VIX..........14.91 -0.19 -1.26%
USD Index80.93 -0.294 -0.36%
Como Indx.290.3 -2.73 -0.94%
IndoCDS....276.3 +4.7 +1.73%
(5-yr INOCD5)
Oil..........104.96 -1.97 -1.84%
Gold......1371.29+5.39 +0.39%
IDR.......10723 (bloomberg)
Euro.....1.3418
TLKM.38.80-0.78-1.97%Rp10401
BumiPlc...211.5 -2.50 -1.17%
EIDO........24.89 -0.99 -3.83%
Timah......21800 +0 +0%
Nickel......14645 -45 -0.31%
Coal.........77.10 -1.00 -1.29%
CPO.......2329RM -9 -0.38%$708
Corn.........475.50 -10.00 -2.06%
SoybeanOil.43.18 -0.60 -1.37%
Wheat......646.00 -7.50 -1.15%
DOC(1 Agt)..4000 +0 +0%
(DE/ls- 21-08-13)
----------------------
RISET CIMB 21 AGUSTUS 2013 :
1.Astra International | Speed bumps ahead
ASII IJ / ASII.JK | UNDERPERFORM - Maintained | Rp5,950.00 - TP: Rp6,600.00
Mkt.Cap: US$22,869.00m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$21.03m | Free Float: 49.00%
Autos | Author(s): Peter P. SUTEDJA, CFA,
Auto sales have been growing better than expected at the expense of margins but BI’s recent tightening stance may point to downside risk to growth in 2H. Auto margins may also remain under pressure from competition while the low-cost green car (LCGC) launch will not be much of a saviour given the diluted first-mover advantage following delays. We maintain Underperform and our target P/BV of 2.8x, the historical valuation at 15.6% cost of equity.
What Happened
Preliminary national 4W Jul wholesales were 112,473 units (+8% mom), resulting in 7M13 sales of 713,825 units, an increase of 12% from the same period last year. Jul retail sales stood at 111,539 units (+8% mom). Toyota and Daihatsu’s market share improved slightly to 49% in Jul (vs. 48% in Jun). The 2W preliminary national wholesales also posted a strong 702,423 units (+7% mom), with 7M13 sales of 4.6m units, up 8% yoy. Honda’s 2W market share was maintained at 59% in July.
What We Think
The strong sales in July were seasonal, typical of the robust demand preceding the Muslim festive holiday. The recovery in Astra’s market share in 4W, on top of the strong demand, appeared to still be driven by aggressive discounting. Toyota launched a revamped Kijang Innova on 19 Aug 2013 and is expected to add another 2k units of sales per month. Sales growth in 7M13 is still above our FY13 expectations of +5% for cars, excluding LCGC, and -2% yoy for motorcycles. That aside, we think sales will slow down in Aug due to seasonality while the rest of the year may be affected by BI’s decision to lower the LDR ceiling from 100% to 92%. In the worst case, bank loans could flatten in 2H.
The slower loan growth in the banking system should dent auto loans. While the launch of LCGC could boost car sales growth by as early as September, we think the material impact will not be felt until early 2014. And it is a crowded market, diluting Astra’s head start of more than 1 year ago.
What You Should Do
Astra has de-rated but unfortunately its outlook has not picked up. It is now at some 5% discount to the JCI at 12.8x 12-month forward P/E, 0.6 s.d. below its 3-year mean. We think coal price bottoming and normalisation of the macro economy (rupiah and rates) are key for share price stabilisation.
2.Equity Strategy | When good things go bad
Long Term ASIA: NEUTRAL
Author(s): Jason TODD, CFA, Chiou Yi CHANG, Heng Guie LEE
The past 24 hours have seen a crisis of confidence envelop Asian financial markets. What started off as a relatively contained sell down in the high current account deficit economies of Indonesia and India is now having negative ripple effects throughout the region as financial contagion fears rise. We think these fears will ultimately prove overdone with Asia’s economic fundamentals much stronger than in prior crisis periods (1997/98 and 2008/09) and backed by a better regulated financial sector. However, these concerns add to already elevated volatility levels and raise potential selling (redemption) pressures in markets which are not subject to external funding pressures and/or deteriorating growth momentum. Thus, even if recent currency weakness and capital flight concerns are contained there will be spillover selling pressures as policy normalization begins and the immunity premium in “less vulnerable” Asian markets shrinks.
Buckle up!
Indonesia and India are fast becoming priced for the risk of persistent growth weakness and capital flight. However, they are still not cheap.
(Selengkapnya Email)
----------------------
The government's sukuk auction attracted Rp11.2tn in bid vs. Rp6.3tn in the previous one, but almost 90% (Rp9.95tn) was for the shortest tenor i.e. 6-mo SPNS. The government decided to issue Rp1.54tn – much lower than previous auction amount of Rp5.23tn but in line with initial target. Only two series were awarded on the auctions, i.e. 6-mo SPNS with total issuance of Rp900bn and average yield of 6.75%; 30-yr PBS05 with total issuance of Rp688bn and average yield of 9.25%- at the top of our range fair yield forecast of 9.15-9.25%. Thus, Ytd gross issuance reached Rp195.3tn or 58.6% of target issuance for this year (Rp230.4tn –nett or Rp331.8-tn gross). On average the government needs to issue Rp10.1tn per auction in conventional bonds to fulfill their target of Rp72.9tn in 3Q – assuming that sukuk issuance target is still the same at Rp1.5tn. Next conventional government bond auction will be held on 27-August.
1) Sempat terdorong mendekati suport 4000 yaitu di area terendah 4062, IHSG 20-8-2013 memantul ke area 4172. #kopipagi
2) Area 4000 adalah area suport kuat potensi rebound cukup besar dgn range suport 4000,resisten 4250. #kopipagi
3) Technical rebound/kenaikan sementara dapat dimanfaatkan utk trading jangka pendek,disiplin profit taking dan stop loss. #kopipagi
4) Beberapa saham di suport misalnya ADHI,ASRI,BBCA,CTRP,CTRS,WIKA. #kopipagi
5) Bagi yg punya saham nyangkut,manfaatkan rebound untuk mulai keluar & membatasi resiko. #kopipagi
6) Bagi yang sahamnya nyangkut,jangan nambah saham lagi krn pasar masih sangat volatil & bearish belum berakhir.Fokus bereskan yg lama dulu!
7) Secara teknikal area 4000 merupakan suport kuat & berpotensi utk teknikal rebound. Apa alasannya secara fundamental ? #kopipagi
8) Terhembus isu bahwa pemerintah akan melakukan buy back saham dengan menggandeng beberapa institusi lokal maupun asing.
9) Teknikal rebound hanya bersifat sementara. Ini bukan saatnya trader greedy, baru permulaan bearish.Manfaatkan utk membatasi resiko.
10) Bagaimana dengan investor jangka panjang ? Simak dalam kultwit hari ini di @pakarsaham .
11) Demikian #kopipagi 21 Agustus 2013 Salam Profit, Ellen May www.ellen-may.com--
Salam profit,
Ellen May
Market Research - First Asia Capital (PC) 21/08/2013
* Tekanan jual kembali berlanjut menyusul tren pelemahan rupiah atas dolar AS yang kemarin mencapai Rp.10700/US dolar. Ini membuat IHSG kembali terpuruk, sempat anjlok 251 poin sebelum akhirnya ditutup turun 138,535 poin (3,2%) di 4174,983. Posisi IHSG tersebut merupakan terendah sejak perdagangan 26 September 2012. Dana asing kembali keluar mencapai Rp.1,78 triliun. Meningkatnya resiko perekonomian domestik dan antisipasi rencana The Fed mengurangi program stimulusnya akhir tahun ini menjadi pemicu tekanan jual massif dalam dua sesi perdagangan terakhir. Tekanan jual juga diperburuk dengan perkembangan bursa kawasan yang kurang kondusif.
* Sementara tadi malam Wall Street ditutup bervariasi. Indeks DJIA melemah tipis 0,05% di 15002,99. Indeks S&P dan Nasdaq masing-masing menguat 0,38% dan 0,68% ditutup di 1652,35 dan 3613,59. Penguatan indeks S&P terutama dipicu kenaikan saham ritel menyusul pencapaian laba emiten ritel seperti Best Buy yang di atas estimasi sebelumnya. Penguatan juga dipicu turunnya yield obligasi AS tenor 10 tahun dari 2,88% menjadi 2,8%.
* Pada perdagangan hari ini, tekanan jual diperkirakan mulai meredah dan terbuka terjadinya technical rebound menyusul harga saham yang sudah terkoreksi hingga hampir 10% dalam dua sesi perdagangan terakhir. IHSG akan bergerak dengan support di 4150 dan resisten di 4270.
IHSG : S1 4150 S2 4100 R1 4200 R2 4270
Saham Pilihan
BMRI 7600-8100 TB, SL 7500
SMCB 2550-2850 TB, SL 2500
KIJA 240-280 TB, SL 240
INCO 1810-1920 TB, SL 1800
BBNI 3500-3850 BoW, SL 3400
PGAS 4900-5350 TB, SL 4800
ANTM 1190-1240 Buy, SL 1160
SMGR 12000-13100 Buy, SL 11800
Disclaimer On
First Asia Research
Baca ini, spt nya Indo terancam krisis ekonomi : http://id.berita.yahoo.com/
Mandiri Morning Notes - 21Aug13
Analis teknikal kami memperkirakan, Indeks berpeluang rebound setelah terkoreksi dalam tiga hari dan membentuk hammer. Range indeks hari ini berada dalam kisaran support di 4,075. Resistance 4,270 dan gap di level 4,311. Dalam jangka menengah, indeks masih berada dalam bearish trend.
JCI Pivot
R3 4,560
R2 4,363
R1 4,269
4,175
S1 4,072
S2 3,968
S3 3,771
Rekomendasi saham secara teknikal untuk hari ini:
Ticker Action Target
UNVR BOW 31,000
BBRI Buy7,500
MNCN Buy 3,000
ICBP SpecBuy 11,300
TLKM Buy 11,350
Indonesia Cement: Standing on solid ground (Buy)
·We are positive on cement sector in 2H13, with preference towards SMGR and INTP versus SMCB. We view that pricing power remains favorable given capacity constraint in INTP and SMCB. We think that further underperformance on cement sector would subdued once IDR stabilizes.
·Remain overweight on Indonesia cement sector. The sector has underperformed by 9-18% as of YTD. We see minimum downside earnings risk in FY13E, given that demand is well-supported by bulk cement sales (which mainly comes from infrastructure) coupled with solid pricing power. The catalyst for the sector, in our view, is 2H13 result which is expected to show ASP increases, recovery of cement sales in early FY14E on the back of stronger GDP growth, and stabilization of Rupiah.
Cigarette Sector: Double taxation risk in 2014F? (Neutral)
·17.7% hike on cigarrete related tax income in 2014F? Through its state budget draft 2014, Government seeks to increase a total cigarette related tax income by 17.7% which include 1.) 9.2% hike from regular excise tax up to Rp114.3tn attributable from higher excise tax and volume growth and 2.)Additional Rp9tn cigarette tax that will be effectively introduced on 1 January 2014 to align with the Law no 28/2009 on regional taxes and levies.
Bank Dunia: Pemerintah Harus Redam Gejolak Pasar--JAKARTA - Direktur Pelaksana Bank Dunia Sri Mulyani Indrawati mengatakan pemerintah Indonesia harus meredam gejolak yang terjadi di pasar keuangan dengan memberikan kepastian dari sisi kebijakan serta menjaga fundamental ekonomi."Pemerintah harus memberikan kejelasan tentang arah kebijakan baik dari sisi otoritas fiskal, moneter, menteri koordinator perekonomian dan juga Presiden," katanya saat ditemui usai forum diskusi diaspora di Jakarta, Senin (19/8).Sri mengatakan pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS dan turunnya bursa saham dalam beberapa hari terakhir, dapat diatasi pemerintah dengan menyakinkan pelaku pasar bahwa fundamental perekonomian nasional telah terjaga dengan baik."Pemerintah juga perlu menjelaskan apakah neraca pembayaran, fiskal, tekanan moneter, stabilitas sektor keuangan secara fundamental, telah terjaga baik," kata mantan Menteri Keuangan Indonesia ini.Menurut dia, meskipun sektor keuangan berada dalam kondisi stabil, namun dari sisi kombinasi kebijakan moneter dan fiskal perlu adanya respons yang lebih maksimal, dalam menanggapi situasi pelemahan rupiah dan gejolak pasar saham."Itu yang perlu untuk didefinisikan karena nampaknya ada semacam ketidaknyamanan yang mungkin perlu di-address dan itu harus ditangani secara hati-hati," ujarnya.Sri mengatakan dengan kondisi global yang masih melemah, pasar sangat membutuhkan kepastian dari para pemangku kepentingan dalam melakukan transaksi ekonomi, agar tidak lahir sikap reaktif dan menimbulkan kekhawatiran secara berlebihan."Reaksi yang diinginkan sebenarnya bukan bagaimana menaikan defisit, atau kepada kebijakan moneter yang lebih ekspansif, tapi market atau masyarakat ingin mendapatkan suatu jangkar kepastian dari satu arah," ujarnya.(INVESTOR)
D'COINS - DWAC ONLINE TRADING
Technical View
(www.dcoins.co.id - 21 Agustus 2013)
DJIA ditutup turun tipis 7,7 poin (0,05%), setelah sempat naik sekitar 70 poin, karena wait and see investor atas hasil pertemuan The Fed, terkait isu pengurangan stimulus. Data Dow Jones Future pagi ini, naik 4 poin. Sementara Kurs US$/Rupiah melemah Rp. 190 ke level Rp. 10.723 (sumber: Bloomberg.com). Harga minyak mentah turun US$ 2,14 ke posisi US$ 104,96 per barrel. Level support harian IHSG berada pada 4.060; 4.000 dan resisten 4.250; 4.327. Sell on strength. Usaha koordinasi antara pemerintah, BI, OJK, pengusaha, Jamsostek dan para Fund Manager, diharapkan akan menahan tekanan jual dipasar keuangan.
Beberapa pilihan saham versi DWAC Online Trading System - D'COINS, antara lain;
1. LPKR. Level support Rp 1.080; 1.040 Resisten Rp. 1.240; 1.280. Buy on weakness.
2. BMRI. Level Support Rp 7.400; 7.200. Resisten Rp. 7.900; 8.200. Buy on weakness
3. BSDE. Level Support Rp 1.340; 1.300 Resisten Rp 1.450; 1.500 Buy on weakness
4. WSKT. Level Support Rp 620; 600. Resisten Rp 680; 720. Buy on weakness
5. MNCN. Level Support Rp. 2.600; 2.450 Resisten Rp 2.850; 3.000. Buy on weakness
6. KLBF. Level Support Rp 1.250; 1.200. Resisten Rp 1.350; 1.430. Buy on weakness
7. ADRO. Level Support Rp 660; 630. Resisten Rp 760; 780. Buy on weakness.
Saham-saham pilihan lainnya antara lain, SMBR, ASRI, MDLN, BEST, LPLI, CTRA, dan BJBR
(JPs - Disclaimer On)
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar