Setelah turun 6 hari sebesar -553.16 poin (-3.62%), akhirnya dlm perdagangan Kamis Dow menguat sebesar +66.19 poin (+0.44%) ditutup dilevel 14963.74 diikuti turunnya The Vix sebesar -7.4% ditutup dilevel 14.76 didorong faktor meningkatnya aktifitas PMI Manufacturing dibeberapa negara besar spt: di AS Manufacturing bln Agustus menguat tercepat selama 5 bln terakhir, Manufacturing bln Agustus di Jerman juga menguat kelevel 53.4 dibandingkan bln Juli dilevel 52.1 diikuti Manufacturing Zona Euro juga menguat kelevel 51.7 di bln Agustus dari level sebelumnya di bln Juli sebesar 50.5 serta HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI China bln Agustus menguat 4 bln terakhir kelevel 50.1 dibandingkan bln Juli dilevel 47.7 serta PMI Manufacturing resmi versi pemerintah China juga menguat kelevel 50.3 dari sebelumnya di bln Juli dilevel 49.9 ditengah naiknya Jobless Claims terakhir mjd 336,000 dibandingkan ekspektasi ekonom sebesar 330,000.
Fokus perdagangan Jumat ini ES perkirakan tertuju atas apa isi Paket Stimulus yg akan direlease Pemerintah Indonesia berkaitan cara menghadapi persoalan struktural yg sdg dihadapi saat ini terutama bagaimana menghadapi kejatuhan IDR atas USD yang mencapai YTD sebesar 12.2%, cara menekan inflasi, cara mengurangi defisit perdagangan-Currrent Account & Anggaran serta bagaimana mengurangi terus meningkatnya Capital Outflow dimana dari Bursa Saham saja YTD mencapai Rp 13.34 triliun ditengah naiknya Dow +66.19 poin (+0.44%) & kenaikan MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO) +2.02%.
DJIA +66.19 +0.44% 14963.74
S&P +14.16 +0.86% 1656.96
NASDAQ +38.92 +1.08% 3638.71
OIL +1.3 +1.25% 105.15
GOLD +5.6 +0.41% 1375.7
NICKEL +19 +0.13% 14,407
TIN +330 +1.52% 21,980
CPO +9 +0.38% 2402
TLK 38.92 (10,560)
IDR 10,850
Friday IDX Range: 4,121 - 4,207
BUY: ITMG, INDF, HRUM, INCO, UNTR, ANTM, INTP, AALI, UNVR, SIMP, LSIP, BWPT, SGRO (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
"Have a Superb Friday & GBU All"
Friday (23/08/2013) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang. CSA®-MNC Sec)
IDX Composite 4,121 - 4,207
Pola Bearish Harami Cross terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan munculnya tekanan jual baru dimarket.
Friday Stocks Pick:
ITMG 27700-31100 (TP 2013F:35000) Pola Long White Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas ITMG mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 29750
INDF 5900-6600 (TP 2013F:8100) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas INDF mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 6100
HRUM 2800-3325 (TP 2013F:3350) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas HRUM mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 3075
INCO 1960-2225 (TP 2013F:2300) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas INCO mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 2075
UNTR 14150-16000 (TP 2013F:19000) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas UNTR mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 14950
ANTM 1270-1410 (TP 2013F:1530) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas ANTM mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1340
INTP 18700-19550 (TP 2013F:29500) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas INTP mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 19000
AALI 14400-16700 (TP 2013F:18000) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas AALI mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 15750
UNVR 28900-30200 (TP 2013F:37050) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas UNVR mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 29650
SIMP 600-710 (TP 2013F:800) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas SIMP mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 760
LSIP 1050-1330 (TP 2013F:1500) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas LSIP mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1210
BWPT 560-670 (TP 2013F:720) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas BWPT mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 610
SGRO 1660-1820 (TP 2013F:1850) Pola White Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas SGRO mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 1740 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Good morning,
Stocks closed higher on Thursday with the major averages holding onto their gains after the Nasdaq reopened from a more than three hour trading halt.
Markets rose on encouraging manufacturing data out of the U.S., China and euro zone that pointed to global growth. But uncertainty persists as to when the Federal Reserve may begin to reduce its monthly bond purchases.
Dow.........14963 +66.2 +0.44%
Nasdaq......3639 +38.9 +1.08%
S&P 500.....1657 +14.2 +0.86%
FTSE..........6447 +56.0 +0.88%
DAX...........8398 +112.5+1.36%
CAC...........4060 +44.0 +1.10%
Nikkei......13665 -59.2 -0.44%
HSI..........21895 +77.7 +0.36%
PSE..........6137 - 389.2 -5.96%
Indo10Yr. 8.55% -0.01 -0.11%
US10Yr.....2.90% +0.04 +1.61%
VIX..........14.76 -1.18 -7.40%
USD Index81.49 +0.16 +0.20%
Como Indx.288.3 +0.11 +0.03%
IndoCDS....283.1 +1.90 +0.67%
(5-yr INOCD5)
Oil..........105.03 +1.19 +1.15%
Gold......1376.70 +9.92 +0.73%
IDR.......10875+100+0.93%(
Euro.....1.3356+0.0001 +0.007%
TLKM.38.92-0.33-0.84%Rp10581
BumiPlc...210.0 +0 +0.00%
EIDO........24.29 +0.48 +2.02%
Timah......21880 +330 +1.53%
Nickel......14335 +35 +0.24%
Coal.........77.25 +1.15 +1.51%
CPO.......2357RM+24+1.03%$712
Corn.........464.50 -18.75 -3.88%
SoybeanOil.42.76 -0.41 -0.95%
Wheat......640.50 -8.75 -1.35%
DOC(1 Agt)..4000 +0 +0%
(DE/ls- 23-08-13)
------------------
THIS WEEK :
23 Agustus
-RUPSLB/T : DNET
-New Home Sales
25 Agustus
-Telekomunikasi Indonesia through its subsidiary Telkom International Malaysia, is going to commercialize its MVNO business scheme in Malaysia in September 2013. MVNO (Mobile Virtual Network Operator) is the cooperation scheme with telecommunication operators that have frequency spectrum and network access license in that country. The official launch will be on 25 August 2013. TLKM will use scheme of co-branding MVNO for this year, and next year they will use a full-degree MVNO license. (Kontan)
NEXT WEEK :
26 Agustus
-Listing Puradelta Lestari 205-255 10844575000 20.00%
-RUPSLB/T : BJTM
27 Agustus
-Lelang SBN
-Cum Dev SMCB 37
-Cum Stock Split TLKM 1:5
28 Agustus
-RUPSLB : LPCK, PKPK, DNET, TRIS (Pubex)
29 Agustus
- RUPSLB : APEX, GAMA, LAPD,
30 Agustus
-RUPSLB/T : AISA, DAVO, MCOR, SAFE
-Cum Dev INAI Rp50
-Cum Dev ALMI Rp20
RISET CIMB 23 AGUSTUS 2013 :
1.Property - Overall | Under the microscope
OVERWEIGHT - Maintained
Author(s): Lydia TOISUTA,
MOF believes the expanding property sector is an easy way to increase its revenue next year. Stories of more scrutiny over tax collections are common, according to the developers we talked to, yet unless new taxes are actually put in place, earnings will be unaffected. We still have an Overweight call on the property sector. While new policies are a cause for concern for growth, we are more worried about the near-term macro uncertainty as it might hold back developers from launching major projects. Catalysts are stabilizing macro outlook. CTRA and SMRA are our top picks.
What Happened
MOF, Chatib Basri was quoted as saying that “the government might broaden the tax base on property and plans to implement the changes, without actually raising property taxes, in order to meet revenue targets next year”. Indonesia property developers are currently paying a 5% tax on their revenue following a change in the tax scheme in 2009, giving the government more certainty on how much revenue it can collect from the property sector.
What You Should Do
We think uncertainty in the sector may stem more from macro conditions, which could slow down sales with or without more tax. While everything looks like a bargain now, we stick with the most defensive names and those that target the mass market: CTRA and SMRA.
1.Property - Overall | Under the microscope
OVERWEIGHT - Maintained
Author(s): Lydia TOISUTA,
MOF believes the expanding property sector is an easy way to increase its revenue next year. Stories of more scrutiny over tax collections are common, according to the developers we talked to, yet unless new taxes are actually put in place, earnings will be unaffected. We still have an Overweight call on the property sector. While new policies are a cause for concern for growth, we are more worried about the near-term macro uncertainty as it might hold back developers from launching major projects. Catalysts are stabilizing macro outlook. CTRA and SMRA are our top picks.
What Happened
MOF, Chatib Basri was quoted as saying that “the government might broaden the tax base on property and plans to implement the changes, without actually raising property taxes, in order to meet revenue targets next year”. Indonesia property developers are currently paying a 5% tax on their revenue following a change in the tax scheme in 2009, giving the government more certainty on how much revenue it can collect from the property sector.
What You Should Do
We think uncertainty in the sector may stem more from macro conditions, which could slow down sales with or without more tax. While everything looks like a bargain now, we stick with the most defensive names and those that target the mass market: CTRA and SMRA.
2.Telco - Overall | Notes from our US roadshow
NEUTRAL - Maintained
Author(s): Kelvin GOH, CFA,
During our roadshow in the US, we found that there was strong interest in small cap, higher-growth telcos, especially tower companies. However, interest in the large-cap, high dividend yield stocks has waned. We remain Neutral on the sector. Our top picks are M1 and Telkom Indonesia. We also like SK Telecom and Thaicom. Our top sells include Telstra, Idea and XL Axiata. We recently downgraded both Tower Bersama and Jasmine to Neutral ratings as they have reached our target prices.
What We Think
Interest remains strong in the telco space, especially for growth ideas. Investors are prepared to consider liquid small cap stocks (less than US$2bn). Not surprisingly, interest in dividend yield stocks has waned.
What You Should Do
Stay invested in M1 and Telkom Indonesia. We also like Thaicom and SK Telecom.
REFRESH RISET 08/22/2013 08:52AM
3.Coal Mining | Resetting the bases
NEUTRAL - Upgrade
Author(s): Erindra KRISNAWAN, CFA, Laura TASLIM
China’s coal inventory reduction and domestic price cuts signal prices may be entering the last phase of price correction. While coal price upside will be capped until Indonesian miners adjust mining plans, cheap asset valuations imply the sector’s downside is limited. We have cut 2013-15 estimates for Indonesian coal miners by 5-30% to reflect lower coal price forecasts from our commodities team. However, we lift our DCF-based target prices of all the companies under our coverage on higher long-term coal prices (of US$80/t). We upgrade the sector to Neutral as a cheap valuation means it is positioned for a rebound. Our top pick is Adaro Energy.
Indonesian miners still need to adjust mining plans
We think any price recovery may continue to be capped by supply growth. Lack of supply response from Indonesian producers highlighted the rigid cost structure due to long-term contracts with contractors and that production plans implemented in 2013 were still merely tactical. Until all coal miners adjust their mining plans to reflect lower coal prices, supply growth will remain strong.
Cheap on P/BV
Feedback from our recent marketing trip indicates investors are underweight on the sector given cyclical and structural concerns. While earnings estimates still imply some downside risk, the P/BV valuation indicates that the sector looks cheap at 17-65% discount to five-year averages (while selected stocks’ P/BVs are also getting close to the 2009 bottom). Given the remaining uncertainty in coal price outlook, we prefer stocks which offer limited downside to its asset valuation. ADRO trades at 0.9x BV or just 29% above the 2009 bottom.
4.Commodities Update | China commodity trade data, July 2013 – Recovery continues
Author(s): Daniel HYNES, Warren EDNEY
The detailed release of China's commodity trade data for July shows a positive recovery across the board in line with better-than-expected economic data over the past couple of months. Most commodities recorded a strong rise in imports from the previous month, although there was some weakness on a seasonal basis. The improvement in import demand and strong rise in domestic production have resulted in many commodities recording positive growth in apparent consumption. This is backed by selective stimulus in China in commodity-intensive markets, which should support commodity prices in coming weeks.
Copper and zinc demand up
As expected, primary copper imports rose 7.2% mom to 352kt, and were also up 13.5% yoy. This was driven mainly by import arbitrage, but we also saw seasonally strong demand.Zinc concentrate imports continue to recover, rising 78% yoy to 197kt. While refined zinc imports fell 2% mom to 39.5kt, combined with strong production (+23% yoy to 452kt), apparent consumption rose 13% yoy in July, reflecting improving fundamentals.
Tin imports collapse
China imported 1.2kt of refined tin and alloys in July, down 63% yoy. With exports falling to 0.1kt and refined output reaching 12.5kt, apparent consumption was 13.6kt, down 12% yoy. The weak import number was due to the collapse in Indonesian exports as a result of new purity rules. With these rules coming at a time when demand in China is picking up, we would not be surprised if prices threatened this level in the not too distant future.
Energy demand strong
On the energy side, imports of crude oil grew strongly, up 20% yoy to 26.1Mt. Apparent consumption was up 6.7% yoy although this moderated slightly from last month as refinery runs eased. Thermal coal imports picked up from the lull in June, rising 38% mom to 32.8Mt.
NEUTRAL - Maintained
Author(s): Kelvin GOH, CFA,
During our roadshow in the US, we found that there was strong interest in small cap, higher-growth telcos, especially tower companies. However, interest in the large-cap, high dividend yield stocks has waned. We remain Neutral on the sector. Our top picks are M1 and Telkom Indonesia. We also like SK Telecom and Thaicom. Our top sells include Telstra, Idea and XL Axiata. We recently downgraded both Tower Bersama and Jasmine to Neutral ratings as they have reached our target prices.
What We Think
Interest remains strong in the telco space, especially for growth ideas. Investors are prepared to consider liquid small cap stocks (less than US$2bn). Not surprisingly, interest in dividend yield stocks has waned.
What You Should Do
Stay invested in M1 and Telkom Indonesia. We also like Thaicom and SK Telecom.
REFRESH RISET 08/22/2013 08:52AM
3.Coal Mining | Resetting the bases
NEUTRAL - Upgrade
Author(s): Erindra KRISNAWAN, CFA, Laura TASLIM
China’s coal inventory reduction and domestic price cuts signal prices may be entering the last phase of price correction. While coal price upside will be capped until Indonesian miners adjust mining plans, cheap asset valuations imply the sector’s downside is limited. We have cut 2013-15 estimates for Indonesian coal miners by 5-30% to reflect lower coal price forecasts from our commodities team. However, we lift our DCF-based target prices of all the companies under our coverage on higher long-term coal prices (of US$80/t). We upgrade the sector to Neutral as a cheap valuation means it is positioned for a rebound. Our top pick is Adaro Energy.
Indonesian miners still need to adjust mining plans
We think any price recovery may continue to be capped by supply growth. Lack of supply response from Indonesian producers highlighted the rigid cost structure due to long-term contracts with contractors and that production plans implemented in 2013 were still merely tactical. Until all coal miners adjust their mining plans to reflect lower coal prices, supply growth will remain strong.
Cheap on P/BV
Feedback from our recent marketing trip indicates investors are underweight on the sector given cyclical and structural concerns. While earnings estimates still imply some downside risk, the P/BV valuation indicates that the sector looks cheap at 17-65% discount to five-year averages (while selected stocks’ P/BVs are also getting close to the 2009 bottom). Given the remaining uncertainty in coal price outlook, we prefer stocks which offer limited downside to its asset valuation. ADRO trades at 0.9x BV or just 29% above the 2009 bottom.
4.Commodities Update | China commodity trade data, July 2013 – Recovery continues
Author(s): Daniel HYNES, Warren EDNEY
The detailed release of China's commodity trade data for July shows a positive recovery across the board in line with better-than-expected economic data over the past couple of months. Most commodities recorded a strong rise in imports from the previous month, although there was some weakness on a seasonal basis. The improvement in import demand and strong rise in domestic production have resulted in many commodities recording positive growth in apparent consumption. This is backed by selective stimulus in China in commodity-intensive markets, which should support commodity prices in coming weeks.
Copper and zinc demand up
As expected, primary copper imports rose 7.2% mom to 352kt, and were also up 13.5% yoy. This was driven mainly by import arbitrage, but we also saw seasonally strong demand.Zinc concentrate imports continue to recover, rising 78% yoy to 197kt. While refined zinc imports fell 2% mom to 39.5kt, combined with strong production (+23% yoy to 452kt), apparent consumption rose 13% yoy in July, reflecting improving fundamentals.
Tin imports collapse
China imported 1.2kt of refined tin and alloys in July, down 63% yoy. With exports falling to 0.1kt and refined output reaching 12.5kt, apparent consumption was 13.6kt, down 12% yoy. The weak import number was due to the collapse in Indonesian exports as a result of new purity rules. With these rules coming at a time when demand in China is picking up, we would not be surprised if prices threatened this level in the not too distant future.
Energy demand strong
On the energy side, imports of crude oil grew strongly, up 20% yoy to 26.1Mt. Apparent consumption was up 6.7% yoy although this moderated slightly from last month as refinery runs eased. Thermal coal imports picked up from the lull in June, rising 38% mom to 32.8Mt.
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