Prediksi Market, Rabu 31 Juli 2013

Wednesday (31/07/2013) Early BIRD Fundamental Perspective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Securities)

Aksi menunggu apa hasil FOMC Meeting terutama kapan Program Stimulus berkurang mendorong Dow ditutup nyaris flat sebesar -1.38 poin (-0.01%) ditutup pd level 15520.59 disertai tidak berubahnya The Vix seperti closing Senin pada level 13.39 ditengah menguatnya harga saham Cisco, Pfizer, Apple, FB & Aetna sbg dampak lebih tingginya pertumbuhan revenue & earnings emiten serta meningkatnya data Single-Family Home Prices bulan Mei sebesar 1% (ekspektasi ekonom terjadi kenaikan 1.5%) & sedikit turunnya data Consumer Confidence bulan Juli sebesar 80.3, lebih rendah dibandingkan ekspektasi ekonom sebesar 81.1 & lebih rendah dibandingkan data Juni sebesar 82.1.

Hingga Selasa (30/7), sekitar 300 emiten yg tergabung dlm Index S&P 500 melaporkan earning Q2/2012 dmn 67% diantaranya melaporkan earning diatas ekspektasi, sementara 55% melaporkan revenue diatas ekspektasi awal dmn para analyst memperkirakan LK Q2/2012 emiten akan melaporkan 4% kenaikan Vs thn lalu, dgn perkiraan kenaikan revenue 1.1%.

Perkiraan inflasi Juli yang mencapai +2.87% mendorong inflasi year on year sekitar 8.18% shg jika level inflasi itu yang terjadi dihari Kamis, 1 Agustus maka seperti ES pernah singgung sebelumnya BI Rate berpotensi akan kembali naik sekitar 25 bp - 50 bp sehingga dampak selanjutnya dapat memperlambatnya pertumbuhan kredit perbankan di tahun 2013 menjadi 19% & dampaknya selanjutnya dapat memperlambat pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di tahun 2013 menjadi sekitar 5.8%-5.9%.

DOW -1.38 -0.01% 15520.59
S&P +0.63 +0.04% 1685.96
NASDAQ +17.33 +0.48% 3616.47
OIL -1.48 -1.42% 103.07
GOLD -3.3 -0.25% 1325.1
NICKEL -140 -0.95% 13,490
TIN +40 +0.2% 19,640
CPO +48  +2.22%. 2,215
TLK 45.00 (11,550)
IDR 10,265

Wednesday IDX Range: 4,576 - 4,654

BUY: TLKM, KLBF, BBRI, PGAS, BBCA, UNVR, GGRM, INDF, UNTR, ICBP, BMRI, CPIN, SMGR, SMRA (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)

"Have A Dazzling Wednesday & GBU All"

Wednesday (31/07/2013) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang. CSA®-MNC Sec)

IDX Composite 4,576 - 4,654
Pola Bullish Harami terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal dihari Rabu.

Wednesday Stocks Pick:
TLKM 11450-11950 (TP 2013F:11650) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas TLKM mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 11700

KLBF 1340-1470 (TP 2013F:1720) Pola Bullish Engulfing terbentuk atas KLBF mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 1390

BBRI 7900-8300 (TP 2013F:10200) Pola White Candle terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 8050

PGAS 5700-6050 (TP 2013F:6700) Pola White Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 5850

BBCA 10150-10450 (TP 2013F:11800) Pola Four Price Doji terbentuk atas BBCA mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 10250

UNVR 31750-32950 (New TP 2013F:37050) Pola Bullish Harami terbentuk atas UNVR mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BOW 32150

GGRM 43100-44400 (TP 2013F:54050) Pola Bullish Harami terbentuk atas GGRM mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 43550

INDF 6700-6950 (TP 2013F:8100) Pola White Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas INDF mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 6800

UNTR 16700-17300 (TP 2013F:19000) Pola White Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas UNTR mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 16850

ICBP 10950-11600 (TP 2013F:13000) Pola Matching Low terbentuk atas ICBP mengindikasikan munculnya aksi beli. BUY 11150

BMRI 8550-8900 (TP 2013F:10650) Pola White Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas BMRI mengindikasikan perlambatan aksi beli. BUY 8650

CPIN 4250-4425 (TP 2013F:5370) Pola Balck Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas CPIN mengindikasikan munculnya profit taking. BUY 4300

SMGR 14950-15500 (TP 2013F:21200) Pola Matching Low terbentuk atas SMGR mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 15100

SMRA 980-1060 (TP 2013F:1450) Pola Four Price Doji terbentuk atas SMRA mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 1010 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)
FR CLSA :

1.Better

PWON: strong on higher than expected interest income, NP+75% YoY to Rp635bn, 52% of FY13 cons

BSDE: strong helped on by Rp1.2trn land sold to JVs in 1Q, NP+203% YoY to Rp1.53trn, 79% of FY13 cons

WIKA: strong incorporating seasonality, NP+56% YoY to Rp280bn, 45% of FY13cons

WINS: slightly better than expected, NP+10% YoY to $11m, 50% of FY13 cons

UNVR: slightly above supported by the price increase in March, NP+21% YoY to Rp2.82trn, 52% of FY13 cons






2.In line

BMRI: inline, NP+16% YoY to Rp8.29trn, 47% of FY13 cons

BBCA: inline, NP+19% YoY to Rp6.3trn, 47% of FY13 cons

IMAS: inline, NP-18% YoY to Rp370bn, 47% of FY13 cons

SMGR: inline, NP+23% YoY to Rp2.58trn, 45% of FY13 cons but mkt share improved to 43.6% from 40.9% last yr




3.Below

UNTR: slightly below, NP-25% YoY to Rp2.31trn, 45% of FY13 cons

AALI: weak, NP-25% YoY to Rp717bn, 34% of FY13 cons

AKRA: weak, NP+18% YoY to Rp351bn, 45% of FY13 cons

GJTL: weak as export vols falls and increase in financing costs, NP-13% YoY to Rp460bn, 37% of FY13 cons

JSMR: weak on higher labour cost and interest expense, NP-18% YoY to Rp761bn, 42% of FY13 cons

KAEF: weak, NP-47% YoY to Rp43bn
1.Bumi Serpong Damai   | Not too shabby
BSDE IJ / BSDE.JK | NEUTRAL - Maintained | Rp1,550.00 - Tgt. Rp1,600.00
Mkt.Cap: US$2,639.00m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$12.94m | Free Float: 46.90%
Property Devt & Invt | Author(s): Lydia TOISUTA, Linda LAUWIRA

With consistent external funding, BSDE may need to accelerate its asset monetisation soon, or risk booking lower returns growth than its peers. 1H13 core EPS forms 79% of our FY13 forecast (55% after one-off land sales are stripped out), ahead of historical seasonality from higher-than-expected margins. Accordingly, we raise our FY13-14 EPS by 4%, though we cut FY15 by 3.5% for lower backlog assumptions. Our DCF-based target price is unchanged (WACC 12%) as well as our Neutral rating, pending further asset-monetisation moves.

Margins were the saviour
1H13 core profit of Rp1.5tr was led by land sales to its JV. Organic sales and core profit were flat, though higher than our expectations due to higher gross margins. We maintain our non-operating estimates largely on the back of its new Rp1.75tr bond which should start paying coupons in 2H13.

All-time-high cash position
The main contributor to its high cash position of Rp4.6tr (highest quarterly ever) was its 2Q13 bond issuance. BSDE’s investment cash flows almost tripled in 2Q13 following its equity injection into Aeon Mall, investment in the Convention Center as well as a short-term investment in Plaza Indonesia (PLIN IJ, NR). However, given that it had Rp4tr worth of presales up until Jun 13 and slow investment purchases, BSDE’s cash remained high. This may allow BSDE to benefit from higher deposit rates.

Main risk: turnover slowdown
While it has a placement outstanding, dilution of its turnover may be offset by a sizeable jump in its earnings, in our view. However, if not matched by an acceleration in asset monetisation from FY14 onwards, we caution that there is a risk of its underperformance to peers in terms of returns growth.

2.Semen Indonesia   | Back on the saddle
SMGR IJ / SMGR.JK | OUTPERFORM - Upgrade | Rp15,100.00 - Tgt. Rp18,000.00
Mkt.Cap: US$8,717.00m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$17.51m | Free Float: 49.00%
Cement | Author(s): Lydia TOISUTA, Linda LAUWIRA

One of the most liquid cement stocks, SMGR has shed 20% from its peak and 11% after our __ Jul downgrade. Solid earnings are now expected to provide re-rating catalysts. We upgrade the stock to Outperform from Neutral. 1H13 core EPS forms 47% of our FY13 forecast (44% of consensus), slightly ahead due to non-operating income. We upgrade our FY13-14 EPS by 0-2% while cutting FY15 by 2% for a lower cash position. Our 15.6x CY14 P/E target price (historical 15% premium to the JCI) is unchanged due to our minor upgrade.

Solid earnings growth
Core net profit grew 20% yoy in 1H13 on 32% yoy topline growth from a 26% yoy volume increase and 1% yoy increase in ASPs. EBITDA margins improved to 34% from 33% yoy and accordingly, EBITDA/t grew by 7.4% yoy. However, the company will be paying more interest expense going forward as it starts commercial operation at its Tonasa plant which is debt-financed and as it consolidates the financials of its Thang Long subsidiary in Vietnam.

Spending the cash
While its cash cycle is improving, cash levels dropped to Rp1.8tr, its lowest since 2006. Dividend payment and bank-loan repayment contributed to the decline. Payout was 45% (vs. 50% in the past six years). The company is looking to raise more external funds partly for its Vietnam loan refinancing and partly for expansion.

Main risk is execution
The biggest risk in the long term is its global expansion where execution has yet to be tested. In the short term, SMGR has the best ROCE outlook among its peers.