Prediksi Market, Jumat 12 Juli 2013

Friday (12/07/2013) Early BIRD Fundamental Perspective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Securities)

"Dovish Statement" Chairman The Fed Ben Bernanke mengenai lanjutan dukungan atas Paket Stimulus menjadi faktor pendorong Dow Jones MENGUAT TAJAM sebesar +169.26 poin (+1.11%) ditutup pada level 15460.92, level TERTINGGI sepanjang masa Dow, diiringi pelemahan The Vix sebesar -1.41% ditutup pada level 14.01 ditengah kenaikan Weekly Jobless Claim sebesar 16,000 unit menjadi total 360,000 (diatas ekspektasi ekonomi sebesar 340,000 unit) & turunnya data import and export prices bulan Juni.

Setelah dikejutkan Bank Indonesia dengan kenaikan tiba-tiba BI Rate sebesar 50 bp menjadi 6.5% & kenaikan LTV untuk kepemilikan ke-2 atau ke-3 atas rumah dan apartment, saat ini analyst sedang menghitung berapa besar dampaknya atas pertumbuhan ekonomi 2013 secara umum serta IHSG khususnya terutama potensi penurunan pendapatan emiten sektor property khususnya yang bergerak atas penyediaan rumah & apartment serta seberapa besar dampaknya atas penurunan interest margin & interest income untuk emiten perbankan serta seberapa besar kenaikan cost of fund perbankan, maka Jumat ini IHSG ES perkirakan masih berpeluang melanjutkan kenaikannya ditengah dugaan "huge short covering" di Wall Street yang akan menghadapi "real challenge" minggu depan ketika market "men-digest" isi the Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony, sehingga diperkirakan minggu depan VOLATILITY di Wall Street dan Bursa Indonesia akan meningkat.

DOW +169.26 +1.11% 15460.92
NASDAQ +57.54 +1.63% 3578.3
S&P +22.4 +1.36% 1675.02
VIX -0.2 -1.41% 14.01
OIL -0.29 -0.28% 104.62
GOLD +5.1 +0.4 %1285
NICKEL +70 +0.51% 13642
TIN +16 +0.08% 19555
CPO -5.-0.21%. 2390
TLK 46.27 (11525)
IDR 9965

Friday IDX Range: 4531 - 4694

BUY: BMRI, AKRA, PGAS, WIKA, BBCA, ICBP, KLBF, TLKM, SMRA, UNTR, UNVR, INDF, SMGR, WSKT, INTP (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)

"Have a Gorgeous Friday & GBU All"
Friday (12/07/2013) Early BIRD Technical Prespective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Sec)

IDX Composite 4531 - 4694
Pola Two White Soldiers diarea Oversold terbentuk atas IDX mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation.

Friday Stocks Pick:
BMRI 8100-8900 (TP 2013F:10650) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas BMRI mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 8450

AKRA 4750-5050 (TP 2013F:6000) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas AKRA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 4875

PGAS 5700-6150 (TP 2013F:6700) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas PGAS mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 5850.

WIKA 1950-2175 (TP 2013F:2850) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas WIKA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 2000

BBCA 9600-10050 (TP 2013F:11800) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas BBCA mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 9750

ICBP 10750-11250 (TP 2013F:13000) Pola Evening Doji Star terbentuk atas ICBP mengindikasikan perlambatan aksi beli. BUY 10900

KLBF 1390-1480 (TP 2013F:1720) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas KLBF mengindikasikan Bullish continuation. BUY 1420

TLKM 11400-11900 (TP 2013F:11650) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas TLKM mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 11600

SMRA 990-1090 (TP 2013F:3300) Pola Evening Doji Star terbentuk atas SMRA mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 1010

UNVR 30200-32500 (TP 2013F:34950) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas UNVR mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 31600

INDF 6800-7200 (TP 2013F:8100) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas INDF mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 6950

SMGR 14950-15700 (TP 2013F:21200) Pola Evening Doji Star terbentuk atas SMGR mengindikasikan melambatnya aksi beli. BUY 15200

WSKT 700-800 (TP 2013F:1090) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas WSKT mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 730

INTP 22100-23650 (TP 2013F:29500) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas INTP mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 22900 (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc  on

Good morning,

Stocks roared higher to finish near their best levels Thursday, with the Dow and S&P 500 closing at record highs, boosted by dovish comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The blue-chip index's point gain for 2013 is already greater than any year on record.

Dow......15460 +169.3+1.11%
Nasdaq...3578 +57.5  +1.63%
S&P 500..1675 +22.4  +1.36%
FTSE........6543 +38.5  +0.59%
Dax..........8158 +92.3  +1.14%
CAC40......3868 +28.5  +0.74%
Nikkei.....14472 +56     +0.39%
HSI.........21437 +532.9+2.55%
PSE..........6407  +99.2  +1.57%
US10Yr...2.57%  -0.05    -1.91%
VIX.........14.01   -0.20    -1.41%
USD Index 82.76-0.33    -0.39%
(DXY)
IndoCDS....207.5 -25.78 -11.05%
(5-yr INOCD5)
Oil..........104.17  -0.55  -0.52%
Gold......1285     +26.8 +2.13%
IDR........9970(source: yahoo finance)
Euro......1.3097
TLKM...46.27+2.31+5.25%Rp11186
BumiPlc...259.30 suspend+0.00%
EIDO........30.67   +1.79 +6.20%
Timah......19455  +105  +0.54%
Nickel......13550  +70    +0.52%
Coal.........76.25    -1.50  -1.93%
CPO........2371RM-6 -0.25%$748
Corn.........527.00+5.50 +1.05%
SoybeanOil.45.70 -0.43  -0.93%
Wheat.......683.00+4.00 +0.59%
DOC(9 Jul)..6750  +0       +0%

(DE/ls- 12-07-13)


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THIS WEEK :

12 Juli
-Cum Dev ICBP  186
-Cum Dev MBSS RP 50
-Cum Dev INDY US$ 0,003647
-Cum Dev  JKON RP 18,5

-Awal perdagangan WEHA-R  10 : 10  175
-Awal perdagangan INDX-R  2 : 5    550
-awal perdagangan LCGP-R
-Akhir perdagangan JKON-R RASIO 9:1  Rp1.400

-Exercise GREN-W    1 : 1      105

- PPI, Core PPI, Mich Sentiment






13 JULI
-RUPSLB : PKPK,

RISET CIMB 12 JULI 2013


1.Property - Overall   | Finding real value
OVERWEIGHT - Maintained
Author(s): Lydia TOISUTA, Linda LAUWIRA

The sector has enjoyed three years of easy money. With the change in the macro outlook and the government’s tightening policy, developers that have prepared for the downcycle by building new recurring income sources and targeting resilient buyers should be winners. With rate hike fears fuelling sell-offs, we look for stocks undeservingly sold down as well as those with cheapest valuations (ASRI) and lower earnings downside (SMRA). CTRA remains our long-term pick. We still Overweight the sector given the long-term positive outlook. But we cut EPS by 1-4% for lower presales and lower our DCF-based target prices for higher WACCs. We downgrade BSDE and BEST to neutral.

Real demand to prevail
The base case has changed and, in our view, the days of high sales growth have passed. In our estimate, the most resilient residential market is the middle income one as it is typically unfazed by increasing interest rates and policy tightening, unlike the investor market, which may switch to another type of investment. Our initial annual presales growth forecasts were 16% in FY14 and -11% in FY15, which suggest that we had been quite conservative in our cash flow estimates.

Safer harbour in long-term rent agreements
We see less downside in the office and retail segments given their long-term rental agreements. These segments also give better yields vs. the residential counterpart. Also, developers with sizeable recurring income portions are better able to cover operating expenses and therefore have the ability to weather a zero-property-sales year, which admittedly is a very low probability.

Look for quality
We reiterate that sound fundamentals are the main factors behind our stock selection. We look for a positive turnover outlook, lowest downside risk to earnings and low dilution.
bosman pangaribuan bb baru:
And we believe the recent sell-off has hit those with more foreign holdings harder, which magnified the de-rating in some counters.



2.Economic Update   | Jul MPC – Surprise second salvo
Author(s): Michelle CHIA,

Bank Indonesia (BI) frontloaded its monetary tightening with a higher-than-expected 50bp increase in both the BI rate to 6.5% and FASBI rate to 4.75%. BI signalled its readiness to act on rupiah weakness, halt capital outflows and anchor inflation expectations. Moderating capital outflows should curb further falls in foreign reserves, which slid US$7.1bn in Jun. We view today’s move positively but think that growth risks argue against further rate hikes for now. BI is also exploring 1) tighter LTV rules for mortgages to tone down inflation and 2) FX swap auctions to improve liquidity conditions.

Policy rates raised by 50bp
Bank Indonesia (BI) lifted the BI rate from 6% to 6.5%, against our forecast of a 25bp increase. Only two economists had forecast a 50bp hike, with the majority of the 15 economists surveyed expecting a 25bp hike and two anticipating no change. The central bank also cranked up the deposit facility (FASBI) rate by 50bp to 4.75%. The lending facility rate was unchanged at 6.75%.

International reserves tumble below US$100bn
Indonesia’s stock of international reserves plunged by US$7.1bn to US$98.1bn in Jun, the sharpest monthly decline since Sep 2011, as BI stepped in to defend the rupiah against heavy selling amid a bout of global risk aversion. Investors, positioning for an expected pivot in US monetary policy, triggered broad-based capital outflows from the emerging markets, including Indonesia. The Federal Reserve has since reassured markets that it is not looking to accelerate the timetable for policy normalisation.

Additional measures to manage liquidity
We view the BI’s aggressive move as a signal to the market that it stands ready to counter excessive pressure on the rupiah and rein in inflation expectations.