Riset Saham, Senin 17 Juni 2013

RISET FR CIMB 17 JUNI 2013 :

1.ASEAN Strategy: Weekly Key Calls   | Near-term hit to TIPs
Author(s): Chiou Yi CHANG,

The month-long selldown, led by the broader EM debt and fx unwind, has hit the TIPs markets harder. We do not think this signals a trend rotation away from ASEAN but we expect volatility to persist. Near- term vulnerability to flows reversal persists for markets with current account deficits, inflation and rates pressure (more so for Indonesia). Within ASEAN, we would position more in ‘defensive growth’ sectors, namely the infrastructure-linked, healthcare and consumer plays.

ASEAN: five key calls
We initiate on VGI Global Media, the no. 2 listed media stock in Thailand, with an Outperform. We are looking at 37% 3-year EPS CAGR for the stock, backed by modern trade expansion and revenue boost from changes to LED advertising. BCH earnings are meanwhile cut by 11% on slower-than-expected take-off of its World Medical Centre. In Singapore, we downgrade UE to Underperform, with EPS cuts of up to 53% in the wake of its highly dilutive rights issue. We upgrade Adaro to Neutral (its valuation has baked in the worst-case scenario for prices) and maintain our conviction buy on ASRI (its gearing has peaked, with value to be unlocked from an expanding portfolio and diversified projects).

Chart of the week: TIPs see sharp fallout
The recent rise of US Treasury yields and selldown of global EM debt and fx have fed into equity market weakness. What went up the most (Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines, i.e. TIPs) also fell the most since early May. We do not see this heralding the start of a trend rotation away from ASEAN. But Indonesia remains more vulnerable in the near term, led by weaker fx support, rising inflation and yield pressures. Thus, we are not surprised by the recent BI rate hike. Within ASEAN, we prefer ‘defensive growth’ positions in consumer, healthcare and infrastructure-linked areas, including Thaibev, ASRI, INTP, ROBINS and BGH

Indonesia was host to one of our earnings upgrades- a 4% increase in our December 2013 earnings estimate for Lippo Karawaci.

Research highlights
CIMB released a regional strategy note to help investors navigate through the current market turbulence. We see the rising US bond yield as evidence that liquidity will tighten and advise clients to be appropriately positioned. We now prefer Thailand to Indonesia within ASEAN, and still prefer China to South Korea.


3.Matahari Department Store   | Good execution
LPPF IJ / LPPF.JK | OUTPERFORM - Maintained | Rp10,650.00 - Tgt. Rp14,300.00
Mkt.Cap: US$3,144.00m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$6.79m | Free Float: 47.90%
Retail | Author(s): Cindy EFFENDI, Linda LAUWIRA

Key takeaways from MDS’s press conference today are that its expansion plans are on track and sales growth continues to be buoyant. We are reassured that MDS’s sales and store openings YTD are on track to meet its FY13 targets. The stock is attractive for its asset-light and cash-generative business model, in light of tighter central bank regulation. We maintain our target price, still based on 25x CY14 P/E (on par with leading retailers like ACES). We reiterate our Outperform rating with the catalysts of strong future growth.


What You Should Do
MDS is currently trading at 27x CY13 P/E, a premium over the 26x sector average. We think that the premium is justified given MDS’s high 3-year earnings CAGR of 39% vs. the 28% sector average. MDS’s share price has declined by 21% from its peak in May due to foreign selling-off. High foreign ownership is still a key risk for the stock but this is offset by its strong earnings growth and cash generation.

OSK. (DR ) - Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI) masih menarik untuk dilirik, Outlook 2013 masih positif dengan potensi kenaikan harga jual rata-rata sekitar 20%, dan target marketing sales sebesar Rp5.6 Triliun. Penambahan landbank di Serpong Utara sebesar 170 hektar. Pembangunan GWK akan dimulai akhir tahun 2013 dan Penerbitan Bond sebesar USD235 Juta akan digunakan untuk membayar pinjaman bank. NAV/saham dari ASRI masih berkisar Rp1842/saham, kami menaikan target untuk ASRI dengan TP di Rp1290.

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) mencetak kenaikan laba sebesar +18.7% yoy, kenaikan pada laba bersih tersebut didukung oleh angka pertumbuhan kredit di semester 1 tahun 2013 sebesar 27,6% yoy. Result 1Q13 BBRI masih inline dengan estimasi kami, atau sama dengan 27% estimasi full-year kami. Kami masih cukup positif terhadap BBRI berdasarkan faktor-faktor berikut ini:  (i) ROE lebih tinggi, (ii) Pertumbuhan mikro bisnis mereka yang masih prospektif, (iii) Asset quality yang lebih baik,  dan (iv) Secara historical, BBRI pernah diperdagangkan di level 3.3-3.4x PBV. Kami memberikan rekomendasi BUY untuk BBRI dengan TP di Rp11,200.$
The FED:
OSK (DR)

Voksel Electric (VOKS) adalah sebuah perusahaan perodusen kabel dimana varian produk kabel mereka terdiri dari kabel untuk electrical dan telekomunikasi. Mereka adalah suplier terbesar untuk PLN dan Telkom. Berdasarkan laporan keuangan mereka di 2012, sekitar 50% pendapatan mereka datang dari PLN (40%) dan Telkom (10%). Pertumbuhan VOKS mengikuti pertumbuhan infrastruktur di Indonesia, dimana seiring dengan tumbuh proyek infrastruktur oleh pemerintah demand untuk produk mereka pun naik.

  Outlook VOKS di tahun 2013 dan 2014, kami menargetkan pertumbuhan laba bersih emiten mencapai +26.4% dan 17.5%, dengan CAGR sebesar 22% yang merupakan terbesar dibandingkan kompetitor mereka. Saat ini, VOKS diperdagangkan di level 7-8x PE. Kami memberikan rekomendasi BUY untuk VOKS dengan TP di Rp2,400 merefleksikan 12.0x PE13f.

Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE) mencetak laba bersih sebesar Rp1.24 triliun (+369% yoy), laba di kuartal pertama tahun ini hampir setara dengan laba full-year mereka di 2012 yang sebesar Rp1.28 Triliun. Hampir 57% dari penjualan mereka (89.5 hektar) didapatkan dari penjualan kepada proyek Joint venture mereka dengan Hong Kong Land, AEON Mall Japan and Indonesia International Expo. Emiten juga menambah landbank mereka setelah membeli lahan seluas 5.4 hektar di CBD Rasuna Epicentrum dan 29 hektar di Serpong. Kami menaikan target price untuk BSDE di Rp2,400 dengan rekomendasi BUY merefleksikan 15.0x PE13f. TP ini merefleksikan diskon 30% dari NAV/saham mereka yang sebesar Rp3,451.

Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM) sampai dengan 1Q13 emiten meraih revenue sebesar Rp19.5 Triliun, dengan laba bersih sebesar Rp3.9 Triliun atau naik +2.4% yoy. Hasil ini cukup inline dengan estimasi kami, dan setara dengan 24% dari target pendapatan untuk 2013. Kami melihat pertumbuhan TLKM ntuk 2013 sekitar +12.5%, dan memberikan fair value untuk TLKM di Rp13,000..