Riset Saham, Selasa 18 Juni 2013

RISET FR CIMB 18 JUNI 2013 :


1.Banks   | Headwinds abound
NEUTRAL - Downgrade
Author(s): Soegiarto HADI, FRM,

A more hawkish central bank and crowding effects may exacerbate the system’s liquidity drain. This will adversely impact banks’ loan growth outlook. Bigger banks may fare better in withstanding headwinds due to their stronger liquidity positions and deposit taking abilities. We cut the sector rating to Neutral from Overweight as the squeeze on liquidity and margins could see earnings downsides of 5-10%. Our preference is for big banks due to their superior funding base. On fundamentals and valuations, our preferred picks are BMRI and BBNI.

Liquidity concerns
The revised state budget would see the government’s deficit widening from Rp153tr to Rp224tr, despite cuts in fuel subsidy. This implies funding needs of Rp71tr, mostly sourced domestically. This could crowd out banking deposit growth. Our channel checks suggest banks may want to be more conservative on target LDR, meaning loan growth may have to be sacrificed. We cut our 2013 loan growth forecast by 2% to 18-20% and deposit growth outlook by 2% to 13-15%, impacting earnings by 2-5%.

bosman pangaribuan bb baru:
NIM may be hit
Our economist now calls for a 50bps increase in the BI rate, after the 25bps hike last Thursday, to counter higher inflation pressure post the fuel price increases. BI has also pre-emptively raised FASBI by 25bps; it may go up by another 50bps. Past rates up cycles have squeezed loan spreads by 7- 19bps; it could impact NIM more directly this time around due to banks’ already high LDR. We think rates may not be cut until 2014, at the earliest, given: 1) high inflation until the base effect wears off in mid-2014; 2) external uncertainty, on consensus view of USD strength; and 3) heightened general election risk. Earnings are trimmed by 3-6%, assuming NIM softens by 10-20bps.

Neutral on banks
The banking sector generally underperforms during rates up cycles. With rates rising and competition for deposits intensifying, big banks with strong CASA (like BMRI, BBCA, BBNI and BBRI) would fare better due to funding stickiness. Also, BMRI and BBNI receive special mention for their favourable large holdings in variable rate corporate bonds.





2.ASIAN Banks Weekly   | Changes at Korean banks; HDFC stock of the week
OVERWEIGHT - Maintained
Author(s): Trevor KALCIC, CFA, Hans FAN, CFA, Lydia XU

This week we highlight management changes at some of Korea’s most important banks, which could act as a catalyst for banks to pursue new strategies. We also highlight HDFC as our stock of the week, following earnings and target price upgrades. We continue to Overweight Asian banks. Our top country picks are China, Korea, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore. Our top stock picks are ICBC, CCB, Shinhan, Mandiri, SCB and DBS.



3.Weekly Realty Check   | Downgrade for M-REITs
Author(s): Donald CHUA, Siew Ling TAN

We downgraded M-REITs from Overweight to Neutral last week, on unattractive valuations (compressed yield spreads and high P/BV) and occupancy concerns in the retail and office sectors.