riset saham kamis 20 juni 2013

RISET FR CIMB 20 JUNI 2013 :

MUST READ !!!

Strategy   | It’s about time
OVERWEIGHT - Maintained
Author(s): Erwan TEGUH, Peter P. SUTEDJA, CFA

The approval of the revised 2013 state budget paves the way for the fuel subsidy cut, which has been delayed for more than one year. We see this as the key catalyst to right the macro weakness. We also think the upcoming fuel price hike will lift domestic investor sentiment. While near-term inflation may spike, we expect the rupiah to stabilise, boosting business and consumer confidence. WE KEEP OUR OVERWEIGHT RATING AND BOTTOM-UP INDEX TARGET OF 5,250pts. KEY WINNERS ARE INFRA-RELATED, STRONG CASH- GENERATIVE BUSINESSES AND CONSUMER STOCKS, INCLUDING

"WIKA, PTPP, INTP, SMGR, ASII, RALS and LPPF".

What Happened
The House of Representatives recently voted in favour of the revised state budget (APBN-P), which incorporates the proposed 22-44% price hikes for subsidised diesel and gasoline as well as a Rp27.9tr compensation scheme for low-income households. The revised budget assumes a budget deficit of 2.38% of GDP, higher than the 1.65% initially submitted. The government expects inflation to hit 7.2% yoy at end-13. It cut its GDP growth assumption from 6.8% to 6.3% yoy.

What We Think
The approval of the revised budget paves the way for the government to raise the subsidised fuel price, which we expect will happen by early July given the administrative issues that it entails. We had anticipated the numbers so this was not a surprise. Our inflation expectation is more conservative than the government’s. We think that the BI rate may be lifted by a further 50bp starting in Jul. We also expect an FASBI rate increase of 50bp by 3Q13. The fuel price rise may result in an adjustment of our 2013 GDP growth expectation from 6.4% to 6.1% and an increase in our inflation projection from 5.6% to 7.8%. We believe that this is the right remedy given Indonesia’s current account deficit amid global liquidity concern

REMINDER PANTAU EMDE (PT MEGAPOLITAN DEVELOPMENT Tbk) :

***TARGET HARGA :
FR PEFINDO Target Terendah IDR158, Target Tertinggi IDR250

Salah Satu Catalyst :
EMDE memiliki potensi menuai pendapatan yang lebih besar di masa
datang, karena akan ada dua jalan tol baru yang melewati beberapa land bank EMDE di Depok dan Cinere.
Saat ini, EMDE memiliki sekitar 52 hektar lahan yang belum dikembangkan di daerah tersebut.
Setelah selesainya jalan tol tersebut
pada tahun 2014, kami memperkirakan pendapatan EMDE akan naik sebesar
56% CAGR selama periode 2011-2014.