Riset, Selasa 7 Mei 2013

RISET FR CIMB 07 MEI 2013


1.Weekly Realty Check | Indonesian report card
Author(s): Donald CHUA, Siew Ling TAN

We review Indonesian developers’ 1Q13 results this week. Their growth remained very robust with average development earnings up 22-400%. Developers also remained upbeat on ASPs and landbanking. CTRA/CTRP stood out this quarter. We make no changes to our top regional picks above. Maintain Overweight on Indonesia and Thailand, while remaining selective in China and Singapore.

Results review
All nine Indonesian developers under our coverage reported 1Q13 earnings last week. Of the nine, five met expectations while four raced ahead. Their growth momentum remained robust, characterised by: 1) yoy core EPS growth of 22-400%, boosted largely by historical marketing sales and in BSD’s case, a one-off land sale in 1Q13; 2) rising EBITDA margins yoy with ASPs continuing to rise in the mid-upper housing segments; and 3) developers’ upbeat guidance on landbanking in 2013 (SMRA, BEST, BSD and CTRA). In this season, our Indonesian property analyst upgraded her DCF-based target prices for six developers by 17-35% on the back of 5-32% FY13-15 core EPS upgrades, premised on strong backlogs and earnings contributions from a pipeline of new projects.


Stock catalysts and issues
Debt generally increased on more project financing, though Indonesian developers still had net cash. SMRA is expected to raise more debt this year for the development of a new hotel in Bali, while BSD is contemplating an equity issue on top of bond plans for land acquisitions. If so, ROCE is expected to be diluted by 21%/17%. The performers this quarter included CTRA and CTRP, with yoy core EPS growth of 161% and 162% respectively. Their backlogs remain high to underpin an estimated 85-99% yoy core EPS growth in FY13. The group continues to be prudent in capital management, with future projects to be financed by presales rather than debt. LPKR’s core EPS also jumped 38% yoy with a potential listing of its hospital to offer immediate stock catalysts.
(06 MEI 2013)




2.Ace Hardware Indonesia | Hit by wage and rental cost
ACES IJ / ACES.JK | UNDERPERFORM - Downgrade | Rp900.00 - Tgt. Rp870.00
Mkt.Cap: US$1586m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$1.68m | Free Float: 40.00%
Retail | Author(s): Erwan TEGUH,

The flat 1Q earnings should recover towards 3Q, albeit lower than before, which may not be enough to salvage share price trading at demanding valuations. 1Q13 earnings were 10-15% below our and consensus estimates. We cut FY13-15 earnings by 8-9%, expecting growth to be restored in 2014. We retain target multiple of 25x CY14 P/E given Ace’s strong topline growth, good CG and management. Target price is cut to Rp870 and our call lowered from Neutral to Underperform.
(06 MEI 2013)





3.Gudang Garam | Rekindling industry consolidation
GGRM IJ / GGRM.JK | OUTPERFORM - Maintained | Rp50,150.00 - Tgt. Rp58,000.00
Mkt.Cap: US$9912m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$8.85m | Free Float: 26.90%
Tobacco | Author(s): Irenne ACHMAD,

*ENRG and MEDC
ONWJ, fourth largest crude oil producer in Indonesia behind Chevron Pacific Indonesia, Pertamina EP, and Total E&P Indonesie, produced 38,000 barrel per day (bpd) as of May this year or 16 percent above ONWJ’s average daily output throughout last year.
On May 1, production reached 42,200 bpd, which is the highest daily production of the last 10 years. Pertamina continues to add its
ownership in ONWJ, buying another 5% interest from Talisman Energy. Now Pertamina owns 58.28% of ONWJ, $ENRG owns 36.72%, and Risco Energy owns 5%.
Pertamina, $ENRG, and Risco are local companies. Anyone ever wonder why the locals are so bullish on ONWJ while the foreigners hit the door? Trust the local knowledge. Buy $ENRG. Its older brother $MEDC is not looking bad either.