Riset saham, Rabu 29 Mei 2013

RISET FR CIMB 29 MEI 2013 :

1.Astra International   | Greenlight for cheap green car?
ASII IJ / ASII.JK | OUTPERFORM - Maintained | Rp7,000.00 - Tgt. Rp8,350.00
Mkt.Cap: US$28937m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$25.55m | Free Float: 49.00%
Autos | Author(s): Peter P. SUTEDJA, CFA,

Local news reports suggest that the president may have signed the long-awaited low-cost green car (LCGC) bill. This is the much-needed re-rating catalyst for Astra. Our channel checks also show that discounting at the dealers’ level has narrowed sharply this week. If so, we can expect margins to recover, possibly in 2Q and at the latest, 3Q. This is the boost needed by Astra which has underperformed the market by 22% YTD. Fuel subsidy resolution and passing of the LCGC regulations are key to our Outperform call on Astra. Our target price is unchanged, still based on 15x CY14 P/E, 1 s.d. above its three-year mean.

What We Think
Once the LCGC bill is passed, Astra could start selling the low-cost cars soon, i.e. some six months ahead of its nearest competitor. At one time, it had garnered orders for more than 30k units, which it began to refund when LCGC uncertainty dragged on. The narrowing of discounts for Toyota/Daihatsu is, we think, due to 1) inventories running down, and 2) introduction of reasonably successful models in Etios and Vios, which relieve volume/market share pressure. Our base case assumes that Astra will sell some 70,000 units of LCGCs this year or 10% of its estimated total sales volume. We expect the LCGC model to account for 14% of volume in FY14.

What You Should Do
Astra has underperformed the market by 22% YTD and has de-rated to 14x 12-month forward P/E, the level it was at before the LCGC announcement. The LCGC launch could be a re-rating catalyst for the stock as history shows that Astra’s share price re-rated when it gained market share after the rollout of successful mass-market cars.
(FULL RISET EMAIL - 28 MEI 13)

2.United Tractors   | Pressure on Pama
UNTR IJ / UNTR.JK | NEUTRAL - Maintained | Rp16,600.00 - Tgt. Rp17,400.00
Mkt.Cap: US$6323m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$8.37m | Free Float: 40.00%
Industrial Machinery | Author(s): Erindra KRISNAWAN, Erisca WIRAATMADJA

Expiring contracts in 2H13 could open up new risks of rate cuts for Pama, which could then translate into additional earnings risks. We cut our 2013-15 EPS by 7-8% to reflect lower production and fee for Pama and consequently lower our target price, still based on 12x CY14 P/E, which is 1SD below 3-year average. We remain Neutral on UT, nevertheless, as risks from Pama are priced in by the shares recent underperformance.

What Happened
Apr’s heavy-equipment sales were stable at 453 units (flat mom, -40% yoy), translating into 4M13 volume of 1,725 units (-42% yoy, 37% of CIMB estimate). There was an unexpected decline in Pama’s coal and overburden production, to 8Mt and 67bcm respectively (-7% / -8% mom). Our recent industry checks also suggest that one of Pama’s clients, Sakari Resources, recently conducted an open tender for its Jembayan mine as its contract with Pama will be expiring in Jul 13. UT’s management claims that Pama is among the contractors qualified for the final selection, but the new contractor will only be announced in the coming weeks.

What We Think
The decline in Pama’s Apr production was caused more by higher- than-expected rainfall during the month. Nonetheless, it could be followed by a further slowdown in production as coal-mine clients continue to focus on margins. Our main concern is risks surrounding Pama’s contract extensions. We estimate a 9% EPS impact if Pama loses its Jembayan contract (at about 10% of Pama’s production). Rate cuts for Pama should not be ruled out if Sakari is successful in negotiating lower rates from Pama. Other contracts expiring in 2H13 include contract with ITMG’s Indominco mine.
(FULL RISET EMAIL - 28 MEI 13)
Company Visit

Tiphone Mobile Indonesia: Updates on the acquisition progress

(TELE, Rp670, Buy, TP: Rp810)

   We had a quick conversation with TELE yesterday, to gain insights on the progress of the acquisitions and the potential impact of the new import regulation on its Tiphone handset brand. The key takeaways are as follow:
§  The acquisition of MTS, an iPhone distributor for Telkomsel –  TELE expects to announce the acquisition this month. This suggests about two months of delay, assuming that the consolidation starts from May onwards. For every one month of delay, our sensitivity suggests a reduction of 1-1.5% of FY13F EPS.
§  The acquisition of Samsung distributor – The plan to acquire a Samsung distributor for the Jakarta area remains intact for 2H13. During the conversation, TELE further mentioned that it intends to acquire another Samsung distributor for West Java (the company is located in Bandung). If everything goes well, the action may go through in May. We did not manage to get details on the acquisition price, but the company mentioned that the sales target is about Rp600bn this year. Based on the industry standards, the gross margin should be in the range of 8-10% roughly.
§  The acquisition of EXCL voucher distributor – The letter has been sent to EXCL but approval has not been given. From the discussions, we sensed that there could be chance of a disapproval on this transaction, like what happened to the delayed acquisition of Simpatindo. However, TELE claimed that the acquisition of Samsung’s distributor for West Java area should be enough to cover the net profit addition from EXCL voucher distributor. Based on our calculation, the acquisition of EXCL voucher distributor should give annual Rp20bn NPAT assuming 2% net margin, while Samsung for West Java should give annual Rp18-21bn NPAT assuming 3-3.5% net margin for the targeted Rp600bn sales this year.