Rabu, 22 Mei 2013

Riset Saham, Rabu, 22 Mei 2013



The best play on fuel price hike?
ASII IJ / ASII.JK | OUTPERFORM - Maintained | Rp7,050.00 - Tgt. Rp8,350.00
Mkt.Cap: US$29252m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$25.52m | Free Float: 49.00%
Autos | Author(s): Peter P. SUTEDJA, CFA,

▊ We maintain that the low-cost green car (LCGC) regulation will be passed when the government decides on its subsidised fuel price policy. This is the key catalyst for Astra’s share price. Astra has underperformed the market by 27% YTD, after underperforming by 10% in 2012. Pinning our hopes on the passing of LCGC regulations, our call on Astra remains an Outperform while our target price is unchanged, still based on 15x CY14 P/E, 1 s.d. above its three-year mean.
 
What Happened
After going on-off-then-on-again for more than a year, the fuel subsidy policy may have reached its final stage, with the government currently discussing the amount and length of the proposed direct cash transfer programme with the House of Representatives. History shows that unless the increase is massive (double in 2005), the impact on Astra’s earnings and share price will be insignificant, if any. 
 
What We Think
We share pundits’ views that the impact of subsidised fuel price hikes (proposed 22-44%) on auto sales will be minimal as the subsequent anticipated rate hike, expected to be 50-75bp, will not have much of an impact on financing availability, unlike in the past when rate increases of 150-531bp resulted in liquidity disruptions. We believe resolving the fuel subsidy conundrum will allow the president to sign on the LCGC bill. Arguably, Astra’s strategy misstep is pinning too much hope on having the first-mover advantage in delivering LCGC models in order to gain market share. This has caused much pain as the LCGC bill has been delayed and it is losing car market share, resorting to discounts amidst the myriad exciting models launched by peers. In our estimate, Astra should be able to gain 4-6% of car market share when it starts selling the LCGC models. Recall that prior to freezing its LCGC pre-sales, it had garnered some 30,000 of pre-orders. 
 
What You Should Do
Astra has de-rated to 14x forward 12-mo P/E, the level before the LCGC talks. While its commodities exposure caused some negative sentiment, we think uncertainty over LCGC is a bigger factor. History shows that Astra’s share price re-rated when it gained market share post the launch of successful mass market cars. Fuel price increases, although they may create knee-jerk selling pressure, are key catalysts. 


 

Indonesian telecoms sector

Predatory pricing II: This time it’s data

  • Data price points in Indonesia have declined by 58.9-75.3% since last July. We believe this has reached 'predatory' pricing levels and that CDMA operators and GSM new entrants will never be able to generate ROIC over cost of capital.
  • However, even at these revised prices, ARPU uplift from data is 1.8-5.4x for subscribers consuming bundled plans with 250 MB-4 GB of data/month; enough of a data-driven uplift to allow the existing 'big 3' GSM players to grow at 9.9% in FY13, and generate attractive ROIC medium term.
  • PT Telkom offers double-digit FY13E earnings growth, a 6.0% free cash flow yield and a 4.1% dividend yield. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating and Rp13,000 target price, in spite of a likely technical overhang (sale of 1.1% of shares in issue) which might crystallise in August 2013.
  • Indosat's execution has improved, and despite a 15.2% downward earnings revision on higher interest costs, our core revenue and EBITDA forecasts are broadly unchanged, as is our Rp8,300 target price (48.2% potential upside and OUTPERFORM rating.
  • XL Axiata offers 45.6% upside. XL's tariff moves in 4Q12 have stabilised market share as 'predatory' price levels were reached, and XL started to gradually raise price points again in February 2013. We believe FY13 will prove to be the bottom for XL's earnings and 1Q13 earnings figure will be the bottom within FY13. Our DCF-based target price of Rp7,500 implies 45.6% upside: OUTPERFORM.
At these price points, there is only room for 3 players
Data price points in Indonesia have declined by 58.9-75.3% since last July. We believe this has reached ‘predatory’ pricing levels and that CDMA operators and GSM new entrants will never be able to generate ROIC over cost of capital, particularly since ‘bundled’ plans of voice, data and SMS mean that high voice and SMS interconnect rates still confer scale disadvantages on smaller players. Further investment from these players would be irrational.
For the ‘Big 3’ players, on the other hand, even at these revised price points, inclusion of data within bundles is resulting in a 1.8-5.4x ARPU uplift for subscribers consuming bundles of 250 MB-4 GB of data/month. This level of data-driven ARPU uplift is enough to raise the revenue trajectory of the ‘big 3’ players, namely Telkomsel, Indosat and XL to 9.9% for FY13. It is also enough ARPU uplift to ensure that Indosat and XL, with 18.4% and 17.9% current revenue market share, can generate reasonable returns on capital in the medium term as their 3G network utilisation rises. Telkomsel, with 54.0% revenue market share, already generates 34.8%, and rising, ROIC.
PT Telkom: Data growth outweighs share overhang
Telkomsel is monetising the smartphone ARPU uplift effectively and looks set to deliver double-digit revenue growth (10.4%) in FY13. Scale advantages have also minimised the impact of the 3G investment phase, allowing relatively stable margins, double-digit FY13 earnings growth and FY13 ROIC of 34.8%. The growth trajectory of the fixed line division is also finally improving; we forecast 14.7% consolidated earnings growth in FY13. We expect 211 mn shares held in Treasury stock to be sold back to the market in August. While this also creates a small technical overhang (1.1% of shares in issue), a potential release of value from Telkom’s tower assets provides an offsetting positive catalyst.
Indosat: Strong core recovery, despite earnings drag
Improved execution resulted in 16.5% YoY revenue growth for Indosat in 1Q13 and four consecutive quarters of revenue market share gains. With 900 MHz 3G now being rolled, boosting data revenues, we forecast that Indosat can grow FY13 cellular revenues at 11.1%, faster than the overall market. Furthermore, the 900 MHz strategy should allow Indosat to avoid the severity of the capex and opex shock suffered by XL in its 1.9-2.1 GHz 3G rollout over the last two years. Accelerated depreciation and high interest costs, both as a result of legacy overspending in 1997-2008, are a material drag on headline earnings and we have cut our FY13E earnings figure by 15.2%. FY13 ROIC is also low at 3.8%, again a legacy issue. Crucially, headline earnings are on a sharp upward trajectory as accelerated depreciation rolls off, and ROIC is expected to reach 9.7% (close to WACC) by FY16. Indosat’s 900 MHz 3G investment is worth making: OUTPERFORM.
XL currently offers 45.6% upside
XL’s revenue market share fell by 1.6 pp to 17.9% in 1Q13, from 19.5% in 2Q12, triggering sharp share price underperformance since September 2012. The catalysts for XL’s market share loss were improved execution at Indosat as well as some vulnerability to Hutch Indonesia’s (in our view unsustainable) promotional activity. XL’s profitability has also been badly squeezed by the impact of its accelerated 1.9-2.1 GHz 3G rollout on capex and opex (in particular, infrastructure expenses). The impact was so severe we have cut our FY13 earnings forecast by 19.0%. On the other hand, we believe FY13 will prove to be the bottom for XL’s earnings and that the 1Q13 earnings figure will be the bottom within FY13. XL started to raise price points again in February 2013, capex has already peaked and opex growth will also slow. As XL emerges from its 3G investment j-curve we expect ROIC to rise from 10.4% in FY13 to 14.8% in FY16: OUTPERFORM.




Indonesia telecoms sector—comparative multiples
Current
Target
Upside
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
FCF Yield (%)
Div Yield (%)
Price (Rp)
Price (Rp)
(%)
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
PT Telkom
11,900
13,000
9.2
15.6
14.6
7.0
6.6
6.0
6.7
4.1
5.1
Indosat
5,600
8,300
48.2
39.6
17.3
4.3
4.0
2.4
6.7
2.0
3.5
XL
5,150
7,500
45.6
17.6
15.2
6.0
5.4
-1.4
5.2
2.0
3.0
Bakrie
50
40
-20.0
n.m.
n.m.
7.1
6.6
-12.5
-11.1
-
-
Asia ex Japan Integrated
18.3
15.8
7.2
6.9
3.6
6.1
3.9
4.3
Asia ex Japan Wireless
15.4
13.7
6.5
6.0
3.9
5.0
3.9
4.2
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Kind regards,
Colin McCallum
Research Analyst
CREDIT SUISSE AG
Asian Equity Research
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RISET FR CIMB 22 MEI 2013 :

1.Bank Tabungan Negara   | Sizing up IOBP
BBTN IJ / BBTN.JK | OUTPERFORM - Maintained | Rp1,410.00 - Tgt. Rp1,870.00
Mkt.Cap: US$1526m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$3.94m | Free Float: 38.60%
Banks | Author(s): Soegiarto HADI, FRM,

BTN’s share price has adequately priced in the spike in NPLs, falling 18% from recent peak. The issue can be resolved, and management’s corrective actions should bear fruit over the coming quarters. Growth driver from dominance in affordable housing mortgages is intact. We cut FY13-15 earnings by 4-7% to account for higher NPL. We lower our GGM-based target price by 7% (LTG: 10%; ROE: 18.0%), but maintain the Outperform rating. Strong affordable housing market is the catalyst.
(21 MEI 2013)

2.Media Nusantara Citra   | Mediocre performance
MNCN IJ / MNCN.JK | NEUTRAL - Downgrade | Rp3,400.00 - Tgt. Rp3,350.00
Mkt.Cap: US$4860m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$5.24m | Free Float: 21.00%
Media - Integrated | Author(s): Irenne ACHMAD,

1Q core net profit (ex-investment gains) was 5% below our estimate, forming 20% of our full-year forecast, as advertising revenue growth unexpectedly slowed to 6% yoy. Conservative rate hikes in 2H12 through Feb 13 appear to have put a leash on growth. Including investment gains, net income was in line. Revenue was 7% below our forecast and 11% below consensus. We adjust our FY13-15 EPS by -1-0%, which keeps our target price at Rp3,350, still based on DCF (WACC 12.3%, LTG 6%). This implies 23.8x FY13 and 21.5x FY14 P/E. Given limited upside, we downgrade to Neutral from Outperform.
(21 MEI 2013)

ON LOCAL MARKET & STOCK PICKs
(By: D'Origin | Source: Media & Research Report)

¤ BAHANA (DX) KLBF to remove its treasury stock | Kalbe Farma (KLBF-BUY-IDR1,540-TP:IDR1,

580) plans to increase the EPS by removing its 3.9b shares (7.7%) of treasury stock from buyback action in 2008-2010. Separately, in July 2013, KLBF will distribute IDR891b of cash dividends, translating to IDR19/share (Yield: 1.2%, payout ratio: 51%). Additionally, KLBF will allocate IDR1.5t for 2013 capex (50% for acquisition and the remaining for expansion).

¤ CREDIT SUISSE (CS), Gas Negara (PGAS, N, PT Rp6,000) | PGAS is negotiating with the Special Task Force for Upstream Oil and Gas Agency (SKK Migas) for a cheaper LNG price to supply its FSRU in Lampung. Ideally, PGAS’ LNG purchase price should be below the current level of US$10-11/MMBTU, given the limited purchasing power of its industrial end-users customers. PGAS stated that State Power Company (PLN) is buying the LNG at US$10-11/MMBTU amid its comparison with the diesel price, while PGAS customers are comparing the LNG price against the piped gas price.

¤KIM ENG (ZP) TLKM: Strong sentiment on TLKM was reflected on price performance yesterday. There appear two interesting indicators: white candle with gap up signal and strong trend line. We see potential of rally continuation after the stock breaks up its resistance level. IDR13500 is our target. TRADING BUY.
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