Riset Saham, Rabu, 15 Mei 2013

RISET FR CIMB 15 MEI 2013 :


1.Strategy | A mixed bag
OVERWEIGHT - Maintained
Author(s): Erwan TEGUH, Peter P. SUTEDJA, CFA

The 1Q13 results season threw up more negatives than positives. On the macro front, inflation has subsided, though the growth outlook has dimmed. The market, meanwhile, seems to be pricing in subsidised fuel price hikes. In the short term, we think it pays to be more defensive. Our bottom-up JCI target is kept at 5,250 pts, which now implies 14x CY14 P/E (13.8x previously) after 4% earnings downgrades for FY14. While the market seems buoyant on plentiful liquidity, we prefer to be more defensive, with our top picks being TLKM, JSMR and PGAS. Maintain Overweight with market catalysts expected from fuel-price hikes.

More negatives than positives
Most companies met our earnings expectations in 1Q13. Overall, the surprise was more on the downside than upside. Banks and properties posted the strongest results, while commodities continued to flunk. Adjustments made for 1Q13 led to a 2% downgrade in FY13 earnings. This erased all the upgrades so far, resulting in flat index earnings revisions YTD. The momentum has turned dramatically. Key downgrades were made for the coal and plantation sectors.

Inflation subsides; growth outlook dims
Apr was a month of deflation as food prices eased. This was a relief, after three straight months of higher-than-expected inflation. May could see another bout of deflation, though likely on a smaller scale. The country’s trade balance bounced to a surplus in Mar, but further analysis suggests worrying investment trends. The latter has been confirmed in tepid 1Q13 GDP growth, which at 6.0%, was below consensus expectations and marked the slowest in 10 quarters. With political noises likely to grow louder sooner than later, investment sentiment may remain muted, as historically was the case, as it gets closer to general elections.




Stay defensive
Bond yields suggest that the market is pricing in fuel-price hikes, while equity markets remain buoyant on liquidity. Hence, if fuel prices were adjusted by Jun, they might have little, if any, impact on markets.

1.SECTOR COMPARISON :

TLKM OUTPERFORM TP 14,500
PGAS OUTPERFORM TP 5,550
GGRM OUTPERFORM TP 58,000
KLBF NEUTRAL TP 1,350
JSMR OUTPERFORM TP 7,300
ISAT OUTPERFORM TP 7,400
MYOR OUTPERFORM TP 33,000
SMSM OUTPERFORM TP 2,850


2.BOTTOM-UP KEY PICKS :
BMRI OUTPERFORM TP 12,500
BSDE OUTPERFORM TP 2,350
CTRA OUTPERFORM TP 1,850
ASRI OUTPERFORM TP 1,300
BBTN OUTPERFORM TP 2,000
SSIA OUTPERFORM TP 2,000
TOTL OUTPERFORM TP 1,350
ASSA OUTPERFORM TP 500

(14 MAY 2013)
REMINDER ASSA :

1.TP FR CIMB RP 500

2.FR CLSA :
ASSA Jumping out of the gate, Initiating coverage BUY TP550

3.Key points from ASSA :
1.Recently listed (Nov 12) Adi Sarana (ASSA IJ), second largest car rental company in Indonesia, has expanded its fleet by 2.2x to 11,000 in 2012 since 2009 to meet demand for rental cars by corporate customers.

2.The company plans to grow its fleet to 15,000 vehicles in 2014. Margin is expected to expand as the company continues to build its scale. Net margin jumped to 9% in 1Q13 from 4% in 2012. 1Q13 NPAT reached 72% of FY12 NPAT

3.The company operates across 4 business lines: Car rentals (63% sales), Used car sales (19% of sales), logistics (transporting goods for consumer companies) and providing Drivers for rental cars.

4.Economies of scale, wider distribution network, full end-to-end services and understanding of resale values are ASSA’s advantage against smaller car renters.

5.Management is the key differentiator of this small cap against other major car renters. Management hails from Astra International subsidiary that built its car rental division.

6.We value the company using average of PE and EV/Ebitda. We use PEx of 15x of 14CL NPAT. We use EV/Ebitda of 6x 14CL Ebitda. Initiate BUY Rp550 target price or +43% upside.