Berita Ekonomi, Senin 13 Mei 2013

Tips trading buat hari Senin tanggal 13 Mei 2013 :

1. Memasuki pertengahan awal Mei 2013, kekhawatiran terjadi Market crash pada bulan ini sepertinya belum menjadi kenyataan.
2. Jumat kemarin IHSG masih rally membentuk all time new high menembus diatas level 5100, namun terlihat kenaikan mulai berkurang power, memasuki area jenuh beli sehingga minggu ini diprediksi akan terjadi profit taking dahulu, namun sepanjang tidak ada koreksi yang dalam, maka masih merupakan koreksi yang sehat,
3. Dalam minggu kemarin asing nampak tidak gencar lagi melakukan net selling, namun tidak juga melakukan net buying, artinya asing juga "wait and see" melihat perkembangan kebijakan pemerintah tentang harga BBM..


Happy trading and good luck..Monday Stocks Pick:
Monday (13/05/2013) Early BIRD Fundamental Perspective (Edwin Sebayang-MNC Securities)

Sekitar 450 dr 500 emiten dlm Indeks S&P 500 yg tlh merelease earnings LK Q1/2013, 67% diantaranya mengalahkan estimasi awal analis (jauh diatas rata2 64% sejak thn 1994), akan ttp hanya 46% emiten yg tlh mengalahkan perkiraan awal analis utk revenue, jauh dibawah rata2 62% sejak thn 2002 & 52% sejak 4 kuartal terakhir dmn saat ini analis memperkirakan earnings tumbuh rata2 5.2% (dgn asumsi sisanya sama dgn kejadian diatas), diatas ekspektasi 1 April 2013 sebesar 1.5%.

Minggu ini bbrp emiten besar yg akan merelease LK Q1/2013 spt: Macy's, Cisco (Rabu) & Wal-Mart, Applied Materials, Marvell Tech, JCPenney (Kamis)

Bbrp data ekonomi AS penting yg perlu diperhatikan spt: Retail sales, business inventories (Senin); Small business optimism index (Selasa); PPI, Empire state mfg survey, industrial production, housing market index (Rabu); CPI, housing starts, jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey (Kamis) & Consumer sentiment, leading indicators (Jumat).

Diluar AS, data ekonomi negara besar yg perlu diperhatikan spt: China (Industrial production, retail sales, Leading Economic Index); Japan (Leading Index, GDP, Industrial Production) & Zona Euro (CPI, Industrial Production, Economic Sentiment, GDP).

Merujuk Dow yg berpeluang melanjutkan kenaikan kedepannya sepanjang laporan ekonomi atas Penjualan Retail, Produksi Industri & Aktivitas Manufacturing tdk mengecewakan market, dr Indonesia, disamping menunggu kelanjutan emiten yg merelease LK Q1/2013, market jg menunggu pengesahan APBN-P 2013 yg didlmnya memuat kebijakan harga BBM bersubsidi solar & premium mjd Rp 6,000, asumsi economic growth 6.4%, inflasi naik mjd 7.5% & Deficit Anggaran mjd Rp 236 triliun atau setara 2.5% (dr sebelumnya Rp 153 triliun atau 1.6%) dr PDB.

Monday IDX Range: 5087-5134

BUY: BBRI, MAPI, SMGR, AKRA,BBCA, TLKM, TOTL, KLBF, BSDE, WIKA, GGRM, ASRI (ES-MNC Sec/Disc On)
Dow 15118 +35.9 +0.24%
Nasdaq 3436 +27.4 +0.80%
S&P 500 1633 +7.0 +0.43%
FTSE 6624 +32.2 +0.14%
Dax 8276 +16.0 +0.49%
CAC40 3953 +25.3 +0.19%

VIX. 12.59 -0.54 -4.11%
USD Index 83.43 +0.35 +0.42%
(DXY)

Oil. 96.04 -0.35 -0.36%
Gold. 1448.55 -9.60 -0.66%

IDR. 9735(source: yahoo finance)
Euro. 1.2993

TLKM. 48.55 +0.33+0.68%Rp11815
ISAT. 29.42 -0.46 -1.54% Rp5728
BumiPlc 259.30 suspend+0.00%
EIDO. 35.48 +0.13 +0.37%

Timah. 20750 +250 +1.22%
Nickel. 15355 +60 +0.39%

CPO. 2320RM+33+1.44%$776
Corn. 636.25 -12.50 -1.03%
SoybeanOil 49.23 +0.01 +0.02%
Wheat. 704.25 -19.25 -2.66%

DOC(24 Apr)4500 +0 +0%

(DE/ls- 13-05-13)

"Have a Dazzling Monday & GBU All"
BBRI 9150-9450 (TP 2013F:10200) Pola Bullish Harami terbentuk atas BBRI mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 9250

MAPI 8150-8450 (TP 2013F:9300) Pola Bullish Harami Cross terbentuk atas MAPI mengindikasikan perlambatan tekanan jual. BUY 8250

SMGR 18800-19300 (TP 2013F:21200) Pola White Opening Marubozu terbentuk atas SMGR mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 18950

AKRA 5100-5500 (TP 2013F:5395) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas AKRA mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 5250

BBCA 10850-11150 (TP 2013F:11800) Pola White Closing Marubozu terbentuk atas BBCA mengindikasikan Bullish Reversal. BUY 11000

TLKM 11650-12050 (TP 2013F:11650) Pola Four White Soldiers terbentuk atas TLKM mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 11800

TOTL 1080-1160 (TP 2013F:1360) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas TOTL mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1110

KLBF 1420-1470 (TP 2013F:1400) Pola Evening Doji Star di posisi atas terbentuk atas KLBF mengindikasikan perlambatan aksi beli. BUY 1440

BSDE 1770-1830 (TP 2013F:1790) Pola Bullish harami Cross terbentuk atas BSDE mengindikasikan perlambatan tekanan jual. BUY 1790

WIKA 2500-2700 (TP 2013F:2850) Pola Bullish Harami Cross terbentuk atas WIKA mengindikasikan perlambatan tekanan jual. BUY 2600

GGRM 52600-54500 (TP 2013F:60000) Pola Three White Soldiers terbentuk atas GGRM mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 53400

ASRI 1070-1140 (TP 2013F:1200) Pola Two White Soldiers terbentuk atas ASRI mengindikasikan Bullish Continuation. BUY 1090 (ES-MNC Sec/Disc On)


ON LOCAL MARKET & STOCK PICKs
(By: D'Origin | Source: Media & Research Report)

¤ CLSA(KZ), On the macro side, things seem to be improving a bit. Indonesia’s foreign reserves rose by USD$2.5bn in April. A definite sign of relief after the USD$8b decline in 1Q13. CLSA economist Tony Nafte notes following the foreign reserve payment data that April’s reserve increase portends moderating domestic demand. Assuming though, that the reserves increase in April reflects an improvement in the current account, this would suggest a persistence of the moderating domestic demand growth seen in 1Q13

¤ BLOOMBERG (BN) Citi Downgrades Four Indonesia Banks on YTD Run-Up, NIM. Squeeze Cuts Bank Rakyat, Bank Negara Indonesia to neutral from
buy, cuts Bank Pembangunan, Bankukopin to sell from buy,Risk to earnings due to NIM squeeze from a deposit-rate war and the possibility of a tighter monetary policy.

¤ CLSA(KZ), Bank Tabungan (BTPN IJ) Private equity shareholder sells 24% stake to Sumitomo Mitsui. Stock: Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN IJ) Market cap, t/o: us$3.3b, us$1m. Event: Private Equity shareholder sells 24.26% to Japanese financial investor, Sumitomo Mitsui financial group The valuation paid is aggressive given its non-controlling. BTPN has a weak funding franchise and a cost of funds in excess of 7% meaning it is not well positioned for a rising rates cycle. banks under coverage are trading at 2.8x 13cl p/b. We expect the shares to trade up at least to the sale price of rp6,500/sh.

¤ CLSA(KZ),Still in the subject of property market, our property duo Edward and Sarina have initiated on Intiland (DILD IJ) today with a BUY call and TP of Rp780. .Intiland recorded 81% cagr marketing sales between ’09-‘12. With wide range of projects under its portfolio, Intiland is capturing demand from office, residential and industrial estate. We initiate Intiland with a BUY, with TP: Rp780/sh; a 34% upside and based on 25% disc. to our NAV estimate is Rp1,047/sh.
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