Riset Saham, senin, 29 april 2013

RISET FR CIMB 29 APRIL 2013 :

1. Company Results Note
Wijaya Karya | All the good ducks in a row
WIKA IJ / WIKA.JK | OUTPERFORM -Maintained | Rp2,325.00 - Tgt. Rp2,550.00
Mkt.Cap: US$1461m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$4.84m | Free Float: 28.20%
Construction | Author(s): Lydia TOISUTA, Linda LAUWIRA

1Q13 earnings beat market forecast but not our numbers due to seasonality. Margins expanded across the board, thanks to a rise in contributions from higher-yield precast concrete and realty businesses. Due to seasonality, 1Q13 earnings were in line with our expectation but ahead of consensus, forming 23% and 27% of the respective full-year numbers. We raise our FY13-15 EPS by 2-13% to incorporate faster new contract booking, revenue recognition and higher margins. Maintain Outperform, with the listing of its precast concrete business as a catalyst. We keep our target valuation at 17x CY14 P/E, on par with cement sector’s target P/E.
(26 APRIL)



2.Astra International | 1Q hiccup
ASII IJ / ASII.JK | OUTPERFORM - Maintained | Rp7,350.00 - Tgt. Rp8,350.00
Mkt.Cap: US$30619m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$25.27m | Free Float: 49.00%
Autos | Author(s): Peter P. SUTEDJA, CFA,

1Q’s disappointment reflected pressure on all fronts, from auto to commodities. While there could be further near-term selling pressure, longer term, LCGC is expected to provide re-rating catalysts. 1Q13 core EPS amounts to 20% of our FY13 and 19% of consensus forecasts, as its auto business, UT and AAL disappointed. We cut our FY13-15 EPS by 5-6%, though staying sanguine, betting that an LCGC launch will catalyse its anaemic share price. Our target price drops following our earnings revision, still based on 15x CY14 P/E, 1 SD above its 3-year mean. Maintain Outperform.
(25 APRIL 2013)
3.ASEAN Strategy Weekly Key Calls |ASEAN key downgrades
Author(s): Chiou Yi CHANG,

We downgrade Keppel Corp, Kalbe Farma and Olam from Overweight to Neutral on peaking order book, rich valuations and earnings cuts respectively. In our ‘chart of week’, we highlight that despite the rising household debt in Thailand, a much faster pace of income growth has kept the debt-to-income ratio below 2004/2005 peaks.

ASEAN: Five key calls
Key recommendation changes include our downgrades from Overweight to Neutral for Keppel Corp, Kalbe Farma and Olam. The order book is peaking for Keppel Corp in our view with a downtrend expected until 2015. Kalbe Farma’s higher capex, strong earnings and top-line growth still bode well for the company but these are likely priced in given that the stock is trading at 26x FY14 P/E and a 35% premium over its Indonesian consumer staple peers (ex Unilever). We cut Olam’s FY13-15 EPS by 12-18% on lower margins and earnings risks. Our analysts examine the implications of a continued listing of F&N on Thaibev as well as CPALL’s acquisition of Siam Makro this week.
(26 APRIL 2013)


4.Ahead of the Curve | Monitoring Mumbai
Author(s): Jim McCAFFERTY, James BARRETT, CFA

India’s FY13 results season will continue next week with 22 companies under our coverage expected to report results. Investors’ attention will likely be on financial stocks, with nine banks reporting their full-year earnings. In the Indian banking space, four banks had reported their full-year numbers this week: Indusind Bank, Yes Bank, Axis Bank and HDFC Bank. All showed steady yoy growth in their 4Q earnings.

Initiation of coverage
This week, CIMB initiated coverage of Arrium (ARI AU, TP A$0.85) with an Underperform rating. Arrium continues to reposition its business away from steel-making but is facing difficulties which we believe could affect its stock price for some time.