RISET FR CIMB 24 APRIL 2013 :
1.Coal Mining | Indonesia supply concerns re-emerging
UNDERWEIGHT - Maintained
Author(s): Erindra KRISNAWAN,
Maintain Underweight. We keep our flat ASP assumptions for 2013-14 and earnings forecasts for the Indonesian coal sector. Our top sells are ITMG and HRUM, the high-beta coal plays, while PTBA remains our only pick in the sector.
What Happened
The latest industry data shows that Indonesia’s 1Q13 coal shipments to the export market grew by 12% yoy to 72Mt. Exports grew by 18% yoy to a record 27Mt in Mar 2013, rising steadily from 21Mt in Jan 2013. China and India remained the largest buyers of Indonesian coal, making up 34% and 25%, respectively, of Indonesia’s total exports in 1Q13. Indonesia’s exports to China grew by 43% yoy, and to India by 32% yoy.
What We Think
As the coal market enters the seasonally-slow 2Q-3Q, we see no fresh catalysts to support demand. We continue to see downside earnings risk from possible reserve downgrade for the Indonesian miners if coal prices recover in 2H13. We maintain our Underweight rating on the Indonesian coal sector amid unattractive valuations at 12.7x 2013 P/E.
Sector Comparisons :
-ADRO Underperform Tp 1,170
-BORN Neutral Tp 680
-PTBA Outperform Tp 17,700
-BUMI Underperform Tp 575
-HRUM Underperform Tp 4,700
-INDY Underperform Tp 1,120
-ITMG Underperform Tp 25,300
-UNTR Neutral TP 19,400
(23 APRIL 2013)
2. Indosat | Investor day takeaways
ISAT IJ / ISAT.JK | NEUTRAL - Maintained | Rp6,250.00 - Tgt. Rp7,400.00
Mkt.Cap: US$3495m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$1.02m | Free Float: 20.70%
Telco - Mobile | Author(s): Kelvin GOH, CFA,
At its maiden analyst day, ISAT said it aims to be the fastest-growing telco in terms of revenue by 2015. It will focus on improving customer experience and growing data services to capture more market share. However, margins will be under pressure from higher capex.
bosman pangaribuan bb baru:
ISAT is also reviewing its plans to sell its towers and renegotiating its lease terms with independent tower companies to strike a mutually more balanced outcome. We maintain our our forecasts, DCF-based target price (WACC 12.2%) and our Neutral call despite its fairly robust growth as valuations are not compelling.
Consumer business
Although the Indonesian mobile penetration is over 100%, ISAT believes that there is room to grow as many consumers are still without a SIM. ISAT also plans to capture more subscribers and monetise mobile data given the strong growth in mobile Internet usage as penetration rates of Internet and smartphones are still low at 22% and 15-20%, respectively. The group will leverage its investment in data analytics by micro-campaigning to targeted customers. It plans to differentiate itself from single-product operators by focusing on three main products – Matrix (postpaid), IM3 (mass market prepaid) and Mentari (premium prepaid). ISAT does not think that low competitive pricing is sustainable and believes that consumers will pay a slight premium for better network quality.
Corporate business
ISAT will also focus on capturing market share in low penetrated areas, such as the small and medium enterprise market. It believes this is crucial as it sees this segment as growing faster than the consumer segment. We gather that competition is already high in the large enterprise market. Another focus area is IT services, where it is starting to see demand growing.
Capex elevated till 2015
ISAT expects to incur Rp8tr for capex in FY13, up 25% yoy, of which about two-thirds will be spent on network modernisation. Capex will remain high over the next two years as the company continues to invest in enhancing its data network. As a result, it expects EBITDA margins to decline slightly but absolute EBITDA should grow. It expects to achieve full network coverage of 3G in Java by end-2013 and rest of Indonesia by 2014.
(23 APRIL 2013)
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