Riset Saham, Kamis 25 April 2013

RISET FR CIMB 25 APRIL 2013 :


1.Retail | Slow start, but mending
OVERWEIGHT - Maintained
Author(s): Cindy EFFENDI,

Confidence and sales continue to improve after a disastrous Jan. The inflation overhang may continue to cast a shadow over consumer confidence, but higher wages taking fuller effect and harvests starting should lift disposable incomes and spirits. We maintain our Overweight rating on the sector and pick Ramayana as our top pick given the potential upside from its new initiative. Our forecasts stay the same. The key catalysts are better-than-expected 2Q sales.

What Happened
Consumer confidence and the retail sales index improved over a poor Jan. Retail sales are on track to hit 10-12% by Mar. Meanwhile, sales by Mapi, Aces and Rals also showed similar improvements, with sales growth of 27%, 24% and 2%, respectively, in 1Q13. This is on the back of SSSG of 10%, 4% and -3.5% respectively.

What We Think
While indicators suggest a rebound from the poor start this year, sales to Mar are behind the 2012 growth rate. We think sales would pick up more rapidly in 2Q considering the high wage increases earlier this year would start to have a bigger impact on sales as concerns over job losses ease. Also, we expect high inflation in 1Q13, on the back of sharp staple food price increases, to subside. The key uncertainty remains the eventual form of the new fuel subsidy scheme to be implemented on 1 May 2013. Based on current media reports, the scheme would have little impact on inflation, which should help to boost consumer confidence.

bosman pangaribuan bb baru:
What You Should Do
The sector continues to re-rate, now at 30x FY13 P/E or 1.4x PEG basis. It is reasonably valued relative to its growth. Given the lack of choice and one of the few consumer sub-sectors where foreign retailers have more entry restrictions, local retailers shall continue to do well, which may help to lift valuations further. Due to this and given the strong underlying growth potential, we believe investors should stay invested.

Sector Comparisons :

ACES OUTPERFORM TP 940
MAPI NEUTRAL TP 9,000
MDRN OUTPERFORM TP 1,000
RALS OUTPERFORM TP 1,800

(24 APRIL 2013)




2.Astra Graphia | Delayed recognition
ASGR IJ / ASGR.JK | OUTPERFORM - Maintained | Rp1,940.00 - Tgt. Rp2,100.00
Mkt.Cap: US$268.9m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$0.43m | Free Float: 23.00%
Ind Goods & Services | Author(s): Erisca WIRAATMADJA, Peter P. SUTEDJA, CFA

1Q13 revenue and core income were behind our full-year expectations, due to delayed revenue recognition. We expect a catch-up in the following quarters given the company’s strong backlog. 1Q13 core profit forms 12% of consensus and our forecasts but we expect a catch-up in the coming quarters. Maintain Outperform and target price based on DCF (WACC 13%, LTG 8%), implying 15.1x CY13 and 12.7x CY14 P/Es. Catalysts are expected from dividend payments.


3.Bank Tabungan Pensiunan | Growth normalising
BTPN IJ / BTPN.JK | NEUTRAL - Maintained | Rp5,100.00 - Tgt. Rp5,450.00
Mkt.Cap: US$3061m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$0.47m | Free Float: 39.50%
Banks | Author(s): Erwan TEGUH, Soegiarto HADI, FRM

Results came in line with our expectation and consensus as growth continues to normalise while the bank gets bigger. While 1Q13 results look solid, BTPN could face more challenges in the coming quarters from intensifying competition and a potential interest rate hike. 1Q13 core net profit formed 22% of our full-year forecast and 24% of consensus. We maintain our estimates, GGM-based target price and Neutral rating.
bosman pangaribuan bb baru:
4.Bukit Asam | Waiting for the big train
PTBA IJ / PTBA.JK | OUTPERFORM - Maintained | Rp15,200.00 - Tgt. Rp17,700.00
Mkt.Cap: US$3599m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$3.18m | Free Float: 35.00%
Coal Mining | Author(s): Erindra KRISNAWAN, Erisca WIRAATMADJA

PTBA’s 1Q13 earnings were seemingly low because the higher pricing for PLN has yet to take effect. We still prefer PTBA for its more defensive qualities which make it a better bet than its peers amid the poor sentiment for coal prices. Although 1Q13 core earnings came in at 19% of our full-year forecast and 17% of consensus, we deem it in line as subsequent quarters will reflect higher prices for PLN. We maintain our DCF-based target price (WACC 10.7%, LT growth 0%) which captures its positive long-term cashflow. PTBA remains an Outperform as its vast reserves, low cost and higher exposure to the domestic market than its rivals make it the preferred stock.

(24 APRIL 2013)

DGIK FR PHILLIP SEC (KK) :

Nusa Konstruksi Enjiniring (DGIK)
Bloomberg | Reuters | Poems
DGIK IJ | DGIK JK | DGIK ID
Industry: Engineering and Construction

INVESTMENT MERITS
• Total Asset for the year 2012 increased 18.33% to IDR 1.757 tn, compared to year 2011 which
amounted to IDR 1.485 tn.
• Earnings per share increased from IDR 1.45 in 2011 to IDR 8.6 in 2012.
• In 12M-12 Revenue increased 10.65% to IDR 1.216 trillion, from IDR 1.099 trillion.
• In 2012, ROA stood at 2.7%, and ROE was at 4.71%.
• In 2012, NPM stood to 3.9%, compared to last year which was at 0.79%.
• In 12M-12, Net income increased 494% to IDR 47.47 billion from IDR 7.99 billion in 2011.
• The company sets 10% - 20% higher target on sales in 2013, compared to last year.

INVESTMENT CONCERNS
• Construction and civil projects is the biggest contributor to the company's revenue, which means
high dependency on construction demands.
• The property construction business conditions are relatively more volatile.

CATALYSTS
• Had new contracts in Bali and Jakarta for hotel construction and Altira Business park project.
• In 2013, projects in Kalimantan and Sumatra willl become the main contributors to the company's
revenue.
• The company will be focusing on implementing minihydro project as one of the main contributors to
the company's revenue for the next couple of years.