RISET FR CIMB 26 APRIL 2013 :
1.Astra Agro Lestari | A time for waiting
AALI IJ / AALI.JK | NEUTRAL - Maintained | Rp17,500.00 - Tgt. Rp19,000.00
Mkt.Cap: US$2836m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$2.53m | Free Float: 20.30%
Plantations | Author(s): Erindra KRISNAWAN, Erisca WIRAATMADJA
Annualised 1Q13 earnings were slightly below expectations at 17% of our FY13 forecast and 15% of consensus as strong production was unable to offset the weaker-than-expected ASP. We take comfort in its more controlled operating costs this year despite a sharp wage hike. We cut our FY13-15 earnings by 3-5% to incorporate a higher ASP discount to our benchmark CPO price. Subsequently, we lower our target price, still based on 13.7x CY14 P/E (in line with the market). Maintain Neutral on the stock due to an unexciting CPO price outlook. (26 APRIL 2013)
2.United Tractors | Age of austerity
UNTR IJ / UNTR.JK | NEUTRAL - Maintained | Rp18,450.00 - Tgt. Rp18,900.00
Mkt.Cap: US$7082m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$9.12m | Free Float: 40.00%
Industrial Machinery | Author(s): Erindra KRISNAWAN, Erisca WIRAATMADJA
Despite already bearish expectations for 2013 growth, UT’s 1Q13 earnings disappointed as the mining industry’s cost saving efforts hit deeper to its historically defensive parts and maintenance business. 1Q13 core earnings came in below our and consensus expectations, at 19% of full-year forecasts due to cost saving efforts. We lower FY13-15 EPS by 3-7%, and consequently cut our target price to Rp18,900, still based on 12x CY14 P/E, a 10% discount to its 3-year average. Maintain Neutral. (25 APRIL 2013)
3.Bank Rakyat Indonesia | Fruits of expansion
BBRI IJ / BBRI.JK | NEUTRAL - Upgrade | Rp8,750.00 - Tgt. Rp9,000.00
Mkt.Cap: US$22210m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$22.96m | Free Float: 43.00%
Banks | Author(s): Erwan TEGUH, Soegiarto HADI, FRM
1Q13 results are in line. Topline, rather than lower provisions, was responsible for net income growth as micro lending staged a comeback after a weak performance last year. While Rakyat is still in the early days of recovery, we are adjusting our previous assumptions upward. 1Q13 core EPS forms 25% of consensus and our FY13 estimates. We maintain our forecasts, while raising our GGM target price on higher ROE assumptions of 25% (from 22%), following its micro-lending recovery. Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform. We have not upgraded it to Outperform in view of our reservations about its surging SOE loans and their impact on NIM. (25 APRIL 2013)
4.Kalbe Farma | Moving on to the premium aisle
KLBF IJ / KLBF.JK | NEUTRAL - Downgrade | Rp1,360.00 - Tgt. Rp1,350.00
Mkt.Cap: US$7106m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$10.03m | Free Float: 40.00%
Pharmaceuticals | Author(s): Irenne ACHMAD,
Kalbe’s 1Q13 core profit, at 22% of our and consensus forecasts, is deemed in line on account of seasonal factors. The company continues to post robust top-line growth driven by volume, although its rich valuation is a drawback. We tweak our FY13-15 forecasts by about 1% to incorporate higher interest income. This bumps up our target price to Rp1,350, still based on 25x FY14 P/E, +2 s.d. above 3-yr mean. Although Kalbe’s larger capex should make for stronger growth over the next three years, the stock’s current valuation at 31.5x FY13 and 25.8x FY14 P/E leaves little room for upside. Hence, we downgrade our call to Neutral from Outperform. (25 APRIL 2013)
5.Open Skies | Expensive (mis)adventures
NEUTRAL - Maintained
Author(s): Raymond YAP, CFA, Monchai JATURANPINYO, CFA, Calvin YEW, Mark WILLIAMS, Michael NEWBOLD, Andrew ORCHARD
Tiger Holdings’ disposal of 60% of Tiger Australia is an admission that its Australian entry was a strategic mistake. (25 APRIL 2013)
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